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Impacts of climate change on US wetlands will add to those of historical impacts due to other causes. In the US, wetland losses and degradation result from drainage for agriculture, filling for urbanization and road construction. States that rely heavily on agriculture (California, Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, Ohio, Indiana) have lost over 80% of their historical area of wetlands, and large cities, such as Los Angeles and New York City, have retained only tiny remnants of wetlands, all of which are highly disturbed. The cumulative effects of historical and future degradation will be difficult to abate. A recent review of mitigation efforts in the US shows a net loss of wetland area and function, even though 'no net loss' is the national policy and compensatory measures are mandatory. US policy does not include mitigation of losses due to climate change. Extrapolating from the regulatory experience, one can expect additional losses in wetland areas and in highly valued functions. Coastal wetlands will be hardest hit due to sea-level rise. As wetlands are increasingly inundated, both quantity and quality will decline. Recognition of historical, current and future losses of wetland invokes the precautionary principal: avoid all deliberate loss of coastal wetland area in order to reduce overall net loss. Failing that, our ability to restore and sustain wetlands must be improved substantially.O Mangroves: trees and shrubs that grow in the saline coastal habitatsC Marine: inter-tidal, sub-tidal and open ocean ecosystemsQ Developed Coastlines: cities, towns and anthropogenic infrastructure [ Seagrass: marine flowering plants that grow in shallow, protected marine habitatsC Sea-level: historical, recent, and predicted sea-levels , Coral reef: tropical shallow reefsZ Undeveloped Coastlines: sandy shorelines, beaches, and natural coastal habitats/ Global: relevance to the entire world^ Gulf of Mexico: East coast of Mexico, Texas, Lousiana, Mississippi, Alabama, FloridaK Indo-Pacific: Indonesian states, Micronesia, Melanesia, Australia@ N. America, Eastern: East Coast of the USA and Canada@ N. America, Western: West coast of the USA and Canada: Caribbean: island countries in the Caribbean SeaR Before using the database, please open the "Read-me" tab for detailed instructions0 USA: covering all of the United States} Estimates of global wetland area range from 5.3 to 12.8 million km(2). About half the global wetland area has been lost, but an international treaty (the 1971 Ramsar Convention) has helped 144 nations protect the most significant remaining wetlands. Because most nations lack wetland inventories, changes in the quantity and quality of the world's wetlands cannot be tracked adequately. Despite the likelihood that remaining wetlands occupy less than 9% of the earth's land area, they contribute more to annually renewable ecosystem services than their small area implies. Biodiversity support, water quality improvement, flood abatement, and carbon sequestration are key functions that are impaired when wetlands are lost or degraded. Restoration techniques are improving, although the recovery of lost biodiversity is challenged by invasive species, which thrive under disturbance and displace natives. Not all damages to wetlands are reversible, but it is not always clear how much can be retained through restoration. Hence, we recommend adaptive approaches in which alternative techniques are tested at large scales in actual restoration sites. I n s t r u c t i o n s :
T h e d a t a b a s e i s b e s t v i e w e d u n d e r t h e " Z o o m , 7 5 % " s e t t i n g . T o b e g i n y o u r s e a r c h , p l a c e y o u r c u r s o r i n t o o n e o f t h e b o l d e d y e l l o w c a t e g o r y b o x e s . A s m a l l a r r o w s h o u l d a p p e a r i n t h e l o w e r r i g h t h a n d c o r n e r o f t h e b o x . U s e t h e p u l l d o w n t a b l e t o d i r e c t a n d r e f i n e y o u r s e a r c h w i t h i n e a c h c a t e g o r y . A f t e r s e a r c h i n g w i t h i n t h e d a t a b a s e , y o u c a n r e a d a n a r t i c l e ' s a b s t r a c t b y p l a c i n g a n d c l i c k i n g y o u r c u r s o r i n c o l u m n ' J ' w i t h i n t h e c i t a t i o n ' s r o w .
N o t e : y o u m u s t r e t u r n e a c h o f t h e f o u r c a t e g o r i e s t o t h e A l l s e l e c t i o n t o r e t u r n t o t h e f u l l d a t a b a s e .
P a p e r s w h i c h h a v e b e e n c i t e d o v e r 5 0 t i m e s h a v e b e e n h i g h l i g h t e d i n r e d . H o w e v e r , t h i s i s n o t a n a b s o l u t e p r o x y o f i m p o r t b e c a u s e n e w e r p a p e r s w i l l i n i t i a l l y h a v e f e w e r c i t a t i o n s r e l a t i v e t o o l d e r p a p e r s .
F o r T N C s t a f f : T N C h a s a s u b s c r i p t i o n t o t h o s e j o u r n a l s t h a t a r e h i g h l i g h t e d i n b l u e o r g r e e n . Y o u m a y a c c e s s t h e f u l l p d f s o f a n a r t i c l e b y c l i c k i n g o n t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g b o x c o l o r ( g r e e n o r b l u e ) i n t h e h e a d e r b o x l a b e l e d " F o r T N C s t a f f o n l y . " P r o c e e d t o s e a r c h f o r t h e j o u r n a l n a m e a n d t h e n t h e a r t i c l e t i t l e . T h e w e b a d d r e s s i s h t t p : / / c o n s e r v e o n l i n e . o r g / s c i e n t i f i c j o u r n a l s . h t m l .
z Four accelerated sea level rise scenarios, 30 and 100 cm by the year 2100, and 10 and 30 cm by the year 2030, have been assumed as boundary conditions (along with some wind climate changes) for the entire Polish coast, under two recent programmes completed in 1992 and 1995, Three adaptation strategies, i.e., retreat, limited protection and full protection have been adopted and compared in physical and socio-economic terms. Over 2,200 km(2) and 230,000 people are found vulnerable in the most severe case of 100-cm rise by 2100. The total cost of land at loss in that case is estimated at nearly 30 USD billion (plus some 18 USD billion at risk of flooding), while the cost of full protection reaches 6 USD billion. Particular features of vulnerability and adaptation schemes have been examined as well, including specific sites and the effects of not only sea level rise but also other climate change factors, and interactions with other climate change studies in Poland. Planning of coastal zone management facing climate change can be facilitated by the use of a GIS-supported coastal information and analysis system. An example of the application of such a system for a selected Polish coastal site is shown to illustrate the most recent smaller-scale research activities undertaken in the wake of the overall assessment of the vulnerability to climate change for the entire Polish coastal zone. One of the most certain consequences of global warming is an increase of global (eustatic) sea level. The resulting inundation from rising seas will heavily impact low-lying areas; at least 100 million persons live within one meter of mean sea level and are at increased risk in the coming decades. The very existence of some island states and deltaic coasts is threatened by sea level rise. An additional threat affecting some of the most heavily developed and economically valuable real estate will come from an exacerbation of sandy beach erosion. As the beach is lost, fixed struc< tures nearby are increasingly exposed to the direct impact of storm waves, and will ultimately be damaged or destroyed unless expensive protective measures are taken. It has long been speculated that the underlying rate of long-term sandy beach erosion is two orders of magnitude greater than the rate of rise of sea level, so that any significant increase of sea level has dire consequences for coastal inhabitants. We present in this paper an analytical treatment that indicates there is a highly multiplicative association between long-term sandy beach erosion and sea level rise, and use a large and consistent data base of shoreline position field data to show that there is reasonable quantitative agreement with observations of 19th and 20th century sea levels and coastal erosion. This result means that the already-severe coastal erosion problems witnessed in the 20th century will be exacerbated in the 21st century under plausible global warming scenarios. Climate change presents a choice for public policy: mitigate our contribution to it or attempt to adapt to a changing world. In its most radical form, adaptation accepts as a given fundamental changes to our environment caused by a warming climate and consequently demands similarly fundamental adaptations in our ways of life. Those adaptations could entail widespread and severe environmental impacts, complementing and enhancing the primary environmental consequences of climate change. While environmental law has, if haltingly, moderated our environmental impacts in the recent past, this Article suggests that we should not assume that its successes will be repeated in a warmer world. Climate change threatens to exacerbate some of the problems of capacity that have limited environmental law, particularly the inability to plan comprehensively to minimize environmental effects Climate change may also undermine the public support that has been integral to the creation and sustenance of environmental law by reorienting human relationships with the natural-world. The environmental changes caused by a warming climate may convert "the environment" from an endowment to be protected to a hostile and unpredictable force to be controlled and from which we demand protection. Although pessimistic about the prospects for environmental protection in a world of unchecked climate change, the Article concludes with some optimism about our ability to avoid the worst of adaptation's consequences through a policy of climate change Emergent tidal marshes are a dominant feature of the Chesapeake Bay's estuarine environment and account for an approximate 123,100 ha of the 185,870 ha (66%) of classified wetlands. Tidal marshes vary in salinity, structure, and plant composition according to their geographic position in the Bay. Chesapeake Bay marshes support breeding bird populations that are of regional or national conservation significance. Marsh bird communities vary with marsh type, geographic position, salinity, patch size, and landscape context. Marsh loss has been significant over the past two hundred years primarily as a result of urban, industrial, and agricultural development. Protective legislation enacted in the 1970s has slowed the rate of loss but marshes continue to be degraded and population of marsh birds continue to decline from the invasion of exotic species, ground predators, poor management practices, encroachment by development, and sea-level rise. Despite these concerns, there is still relatively little information on the population trends of most marsh birds or on the distribution of some of the Bay's highest species of concern such as Black Rails (Laterallus jamaicensis), King Rails (Rallus elegans), Saltmarsh Sharp-tailed Sparrows (Ammospiza caudacuta), and Henslow's Sparrows (Ammodramus henslowii). Marshes along the bay's fringe, tributaries, and islands that currently support species at risk of extinction in the Bay are in immediate need of identification and protection. High marshes on the Delmarva peninsula, support greatest concentrations of species at risk and are marshes among the most at risk of loss and degradation. Management to reduce or abate threats to marsh birds is critical to their long term survival.
From a physical geography perspective, tropical coasts are characterised by coral reefs, mangroves and carbonate beaches on atolls and low reef islands. They face threats not only from sea level rise, but also from human activities that destroy mangroves, degrade coral reefs and accelerate beach erosion. Physical conditions in the tropics are suitable for the ideal tourist beach. Conceptually, the tourist coast can be considered as the integration of a physical system (the coast) and a human system (tourism). Studies have been carried out on various types of tourist coasts in Southeast Asia. For many atoll island states, sea level rise is more than just a threat to their tourism; it also determines their survival. In recent years, assessments of their vulnerability and adaptation have favoured a more integrative approach of physical and human sciences. Hopefully, this should result in a better analytical tropical geography that could play an important role in reducing coastal erosion and assist the small island states. This is the first study where historic perimeter land loss was quantified for both upland and marsh islands in the Chesapeake Bay. Rates and patterns of land loss were quantified for the years 1848 to 1987 using digitized data from historical maps and vertical aerial photographs for seven islands: Barren, Bloodsworth, Hooper, James, Poplar, Smith and South Marsh. processes of land loss were determined through held surveys and correlated with environmental factors. Future land loss was predicted based on historic trends of land loss and future scenarios of relative sea-level rise in Chesapeake Bay. Two distinct island types exhibited different, long-term patterns of land loss. Upland islands showed rapid land loss along the main stem of the Bay primarily due to wave action against low silt/clay cliffs. Since 1848, they have been losing land at an average rate of 1.9 ha/yr. The average erosion rate on the western side of the islands is 4.9 m/yr, compared to 0.7 m/yr on the eastern side of the islands. In contrast, marsh islands experienced more uniform perimeter edge erosion and interior marsh loss. Marsh islands lost land at an average rate of 5.6 ha/yr, with an average rate of marsh edge erosion of 1.2 m/yr. Interior marsh loss was not quantified in this study and, except for Bloodsworth island, is otherwise unavailable; thus, this paper provides a minimum estimate of total land loss of these islands. Regardless of any rise in sea level, the upland islands will totally disappear in less than 20 years (before 2010). The marsh islands have a longer predicted life. Nevertheless, given the likelihood of accelerated sea-level rise and active interior marsh lose, the marsh islands are likely to he greatly reduced in size or totally lost in the coming century. Integrated regional assessment of climate change is an interdisciplinary, iterative process that involves scientific, policy, and societal stakeholders. The goal of integrated regional assessment is to promote a better understanding of, and more informed decisions on, how locales and regions contribute to and are affected by climate change. The purpose of the paper is to explain what integrated regional assessment is and how it is being used by practitioners. It aims to promote this approach by offering a more comprehensive account of integrated regional assessment than has been presented before. The article uses the integrated assessment of climate change impacts in river basins to provide a concrete regional basis for discussion. Case studies of 3 integrated assessments of river basins are presented to demonstrate the value of this approach. It is argued that when integrated regional assessment works, it provides an ideal way of bringing together science, society, and policy to face the challenges of climate change. Given the evidence from past experience, the coastal city of Hong Kong would be vulnerable to a variety of hazard< s that could be exacerbated by climatic change, including potential increases in typhoons, landslides, floods (both storm surges and rainstorms), and droughts, as well as the threat of future sea level rise. The greatest death tolls in the past have been inflicted during typhoon-induced storm surges. During two unnamed typhoons, in 1906 and 1937, the death tolls were 10,000 and 11,000, respectively. In contrast, death tolls associated with landslides and other hazards were relatively small. Under a climatic change scenario of an increase in frequency and severity of typhoons and rainstorms, and rising sea level, the vulnerable areas of Hong Kong can be identified. The shift in development from hillslope areas to coastal land reclamations over the last 25 years is a matter of concern. Although the hillslopes are susceptible to landslides during rainstorms, virtually all landslides can be traced to some important anthropogenic causes and are preventable with appropriate measures. In the coming decades, the low-lying areas created through coastal land reclamations could be susceptible to flooding during storm surges and rainstorms and as the sea level rises. These areas are also where there is high density urban and industrial development, and the vulnerability is the greatest. High seawalls to protect the reclaimed areas from storm surge flooding and sea level rise may increase the risk of rainstorm flooding. To reduce vulnerability, a combination of better monitoring, planning, protection, maintenance, and warning is proposed for adaptation. Monitoring is needed not only to detect future sea level changes but also to identify areas with the greatest risk. National and regional estimates of U.S. economic vulnerability to greenhouse-induced sea-level rise are produced from a sample of 30 discrete regions scattered evenly along the coastline. Scenarios that envision 50 cm, 100 cm, and 200 cm of greenhouse-induced sea-level rise are considered. They can be expected to place $39.2, $65.6, and $133.3 billion, respectively, (1989 dollars) of existing development in jeopardy through 2050, and $133.3, $308.7, and $909.4 billion through 2100. Sampling error and consideration of the uncertainty with which we currently view future greenhouse-induced sea-level rise places the 25th and 75th percentile values of expected cumulative vulnerability at $38.5 and $76.7 billion through 2050 and $132.6 and $362.4 billion through 2100. Not surprisingly, the southeast displays the largest potential vulnerability, with the northeast ranking second above both the Gulf coast and the west coast. Three types of adaptation can influence significantly a system's prospective longevity in the face of climate change. The ability to cope with variation in its current environment can help a system adapt to changes over the longer term. The ability to take advantage of beneficial changes that might coincide with potentially harmful ones can play an even larger role; and focusing attention on maximizing a system's sustainable lifetime can highlight the potential for extending that time horizon and increasing the likelihood that an alternative structure might be created. A specific economic approach to adaptation demonstrates that research can serve two functions in this regard. Research can play an important role in diminishing future harm suggested by standard impact analyses by focusing attention on systems where adaptation can buy the most time. It can help societies learn how to become more robust under current conditions; and it can lead them to explore mechanisms by which they can exploit potentially beneficial change. Research can also play a critical role in assessing the need for mitigating long-term change by focusing attention on systems where potential adaptation in both the short and long runs is so limited that it is almost impossible to buy any time at all. In these areas, switching to an alternative system or investing in the protection of existing ones are the last lines of defense. Real "windows" of tolerable climate change can be defined only by working in areas where these sorts of adaptive alternatives cannot be uncovered. Attention is focused here on the effect of additional sources of uncertainty derived from climate change on the cost-benefit procedures applied by coastal planners to evaluate shoreline protection projects. The largest effect would be felt if planners were trying to achieve the first best economic optimum. Given the current view that the seas will rise by significantly less than one meter through the year 2100, present procedures should work reasonably well assuming (1) informed vigilance in monitoring the pace of future greenhouse induced sea level rise, (2) careful attention to the time required for market-based adaptation to minimize the economic cost of abandonment, and (3) firm support of the credibility of an announced policy to proceed with plans to retreat from the sea when warranted. Assumptions (1) and (2) might be satisfied in reality, even cursory review of existing policy makes it clear that meeting (3) is a ''long shot'' at the very best. In any case, planners should periodically revisit potential protection sites, especially in the wake of catastrophic events, to assess the impact of the most recent information on sea level rise trajectories, local development patterns, and protection costs on the decision calculus.h Estimates of the true economic cost that might be attributed to greenhouse-induced sea-level rise on the developed coastline of the United States are offered for the range of trajectories that is now thought to be most likely. Along a 50-cm sea level rise trajectory (through 2100), for example, transient costs in 2065 (a year frequently anticipated for doubling of greenhouse-gas concentrations) are estimated to be roughly $70 million (undiscounted, but measured in constant 1990$). More generally and carefully cast in the appropriate context of protection decisions for developed property, the results reported here are nearly an order of magnitude lower than estimates published prior to 1994. They are based upon a calculus that reflects rising values for coastal property as the future unfolds, but also includes the cost-reducing potential of natural, market-based adaptation in anticipation of the threat of rising seas and/or the efficiency of discrete decisions to protect or not to protect small tracts of property that will be made when necessary and on the (then current) basis of their individual economic merit.K S. America: South America and Central America North to GuatemalaD Small Islands: low elevation and vulnerable island states In order to study the climate variabilities of the sea level around the Korean Peninsula, tidal data observed at local stations in Korea were compared against those obtained using TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) altimetric sea level data. In the course of our study, the amount of sea level rise was estimated using the tidal data from 9 stations selected by an anomaly coherency analysis. The results indicated that the sea level has risen by 0.28 cm yr(-1) around the Korean Peninsula over the past two decades. The extent of such a rise is about two times higher than that of the global increase (0.1 - 0.2 cm yr(-1)). However, because most global warming effects occurred mainly over mid- and high-latitudes, this level of change appears to be realistic. According to the spectral analysis (at a spectral window of k = 2, k is the number of subdivisions), the decadal band of sea level variability is computed at 30% of the energy. Its spectral peak is found at 12.8 years. In the interannual band, the predominant sea level variability is in the 1.4 - 1.9-year band, with a sharp peak at 1.6 years. A secondary peak, although marginal, has a period of 2.2 years. Based on our estimates of sea level height from Topex/Poseidon, the quasi-biennial periodicity of 1.6 years is the representative interannual sea level variability in the seas adjacent to Korea. Trends vary greatly according to the geographical location, from a maximum of 1.0 cm yr(-1) (the southern sector of the East Sea) to a minimum of 0.1< 7 cm yr(-1) (the northern sector of the East Sea). This is fairly consistent with the qualitative description already given with reference to the global map. As an analogue to the pattern seen in Korea, that of the Yellow Sea reveals practically the same trend as that of the adjacent seas (0.56 cm yr(-1)). However, in the case of TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) data, there is no clear evidence of a linkage between the interannual sea level variability around the Korean Peninsula and ENSO. Tidal waves in the East China Sea are simulated numerically with POM (Princeton Ocean Model) model for normal mean sea level, 30 cm higher, 60 cm higher, and 100 cm higher, respectively, and the simulated result is compared with the harmonic analysis result of hourly sea level data from 19 tide gauges for more than 19 years. It is indicated that the long-term mean sea level variation affects notably tidal waves in this region. Generally, the tidal amplitude increases when the mean sea level rises, but this relationship may be inverse for some sea areas. The maximal variation of tidal amplitude takes place in the zones near the Fujian coast and the Zhejiang coast, rather than the shallowest Bohai Sea. The maximum increase of M2 amplitude can exceed about 15 cm corresponding to the 60 cm rise of the mean sea level along the Fujian coast. The other regions with large variations of tidal amplitude are those along the Jiangsu coast, the south-east coast of Shandong, and the south-east coast of Dalian. The propagation of tidal waves is also related to mean sea level variation, and the tidal phase-lag decreases generally when the mean sea level rises. Almost all the regions where the tidal phase-lag increases with rising mean sea level are close to amphidromic points, meanwhile the spatial area of such regions is very small. Because the influence of mean sea level variation upon tidal waves is spatially marked, such spatial effect should be considered in calculation of the tidal characteristic value and engineering water level. In the region where the amplitudes of the major tidal constituents increase, the probable maximum high water level becomes higher, the probable maximum low water level becomes lower, and both design water level and check water level increase obviously. For example, the design water level at Xiamen increases by 13.5 cm due to the variation of tidal waves when the mean sea level rises 60 cm, the total increase of design water level being 73.5 cm.@ Climate change and mitigation policies adopted by a locality indelibly impact urban form, landscape, and economy. The Cities for Climate Protection (CCP) has become a dominant movement organizing the localities to proactively address climate change. This study examines metropolitan area commitment to the CCP. Geographic information systems (GIS) and statistical techniques are used to analyze metros on dimensions of climate change risk, stress, and civic capacity. "Climate change risk" measures a metro area's coastal proximity, ecosystem sensitivity, and susceptibility to extreme weather events. "Climate change stress" summarizes transportation, energy, and production practices that adversely affect climate systems. "Civic capacity" estimates human capital and environmental concern variables that constitute a metro area's ability to commit to policy initiatives. Statistical results indicate that high stressor areas are significantly less likely to participate in the CCP campaign, and metros high in civic capacity are significantly more likely to commit to the CCP campaign.w Sea level and climate changes archived in various coastal environments during the last part of the last glacial and present interglacial periods are investigated by interpolating available geomorphology, sedimentology, palacontology and geochronology data. The coastal response to these changes depended on the environment and geographic location. Changes of sea level during the rising, transgressive phase are well recorded in the sedimentary filling of the estuaries, whereas during the phase of highstand they are best recorded in beach-barrier environments. The postglacial rise of sea level took place in two phases: a rapid rise until 6500 cal BP, and a second phase of near stability with minor oscillations of metric magnitude. Regarding climate changes, there is no record of changing temperatures in the coastal zones of southern Spain, although there is in precipitation and wind intensity/velocity. After 7-5cal ka BP, the general climatic trend towards aridity was punctuated by several short-lived (centennial) episodes of increased aridity that occurred with a millennial cycle, often coincident with Bond cool events and, in some cases, with decreases of sea surface temperatures. The absence of human intervention in vegetation composition until 2000 BP suggests that most environmental coastal shifts were climatically driven. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved. This paper evaluates how long-term records could and should be utilized in conservation policy and practice. Traditionally, there has been an extremely limited use of long-term ecological records ( greater than 50 years) in biodiversity conservation. There are a number of reasons why such records tend to be discounted, including a perception of poor scale of resolution in both time and space, and the lack of accessibility of long temporal records to non-specialists. Probably more important, however, is the perception that even if suitable temporal records are available, their roles are purely descriptive, simply demonstrating what has occurred before in Earth's history, and are of little use in the actual practice of conservation. This paper asks why this is the case and whether there is a place for the temporal record in conservation management. Key conservation initiatives related to extinctions, identification of regions of greatest diversity/ threat, climate change and biological invasions are addressed. Examples of how a temporal record can add information that is of direct practicable applicability to these issues are highlighted. These include ( i) the identification of species at the end of their evolutionary lifespan and therefore most at risk from extinction, ( ii) the setting of realistic goals and targets for conservation 'hotspots', and ( iii) the identification of various management tools for the maintenance/restoration of a desired biological state. For climate change conservation strategies, the use of long-term ecological records in testing the predictive power of species envelope models is highlighted, along with the potential of fossil records to examine the impact of sea-level rise. It is also argued that a long- term perspective is essential for the management of biological invasions, not least in determining when an invasive is not an invasive. The paper concludes that often inclusion of a long- term ecological perspective can provide a more scientifically defensible basis for conservation decisions than the one based only on contemporary records. The pivotal issue of this paper is not whether long- term records are of interest to conservation biologists, but how they can actually be utilized in conservation practice and policy. Sea-level rise, changing intensities of tropical storms, and changing rainfall patterns are all components of global change that are predicted to affect coastal systems. These factors may interact in shaping coastal ecosystems. The occurrence of a violent storm and a historic drought during an 8-year study of sea-level rise effects on coastal forest in west central Florida presented an opportunity to study these interactions. The system studied was a marshy coastline, on a tectonically stable, karstic limestone platform, where coastal hydric hammock (a wetland hardwood forest) abutted salt marsh. Both the storm and the drought that occurred during the study were associated with pulses of tree mortality that selectively removed Juniperus uirginiana var. silicicola (southern red cedar) from stands. Stable isotope data suggested that these trees used less fresh ground water and more sea water as these stands declined in the face of rising sea < level. Drought-associated tree death only occurred in a stand in very late stages of sea-level-induced decline, where ground water became hypersaline during the drought. A storm that occurred in 1993 also selectively removed Juniperus from stands, damaging stands primarily in areas where tree reproduction had already ceased or declined due to sea-level rise. Thus, although these episodic events (drought and storm) caused notable tree death, the projected inability of forest stands to recover from these events was due to prior effects of sea-level rise. We investigated patterns, rates, and mechanisms of forest replacement by salt marsh in relation to sea-level rise on the west coast of Florida, USA. The geomorphology of this region typifies that of low-lying, limestone coastlines considered highly susceptible to sea-level rise (e.g., much of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, and low-lying limestone islands throughout the world). This coast is microtidal, shallowly sloping, and has a rate of relative sea-level rise similar to that of eustatic rise. To determine patterns of forest change in relation to sea-level rise, we examined patterns of tree-species zonation, tree recruitment, and tree mortality in relation to site elevation and tidal-flooding frequency. To reconstruct histories of forest change in relation to sea-level rise, we estimated age distributions of Sabal palmetto, the most widely distributed tree species at our site, relating age structures of stands to reconstructed histories of tidal flooding in the stands. Finally, to assess the relative roles of flooding stress (hypoxia), salt exposure, and competition from encroaching salt-marsh vegetation in the decline of forest stands, we examined patterns of soil redox potential, groundwater salinity, and density of halophytic vegetation among stands in different stages of decline. Zonation among tree species was related to tidal-flooding frequency. For most trees, seedlings were absent from the most frequently flooded stands in which the species occurred. Reconstructed flooding histories of stands and age estimates for S. palmetto suggest that many decades elapse between cessation of regeneration and local elimination of a tree species. Even during the relatively short duration of the study (4 yr), however, composition of some stands changed in the direction predicted from species zonation and sea-level rise. Forest understory replacement by halophytic vegetation appeared to follow, rather than cause, failure of tree regeneration. Tidal flooding rarely produced severe reducing conditions in soil, but groundwater salinity was correlated with tidal-flooding frequency. Forest retreat in this system, therefore, involves the development of relict (non-regenerating) stands of different tree species at different flooding frequencies. Exposure to salt appears to be the major cause of tree regeneration failure, with flooding stress and interference from marsh playing minor or negligible roles. These interactions differ somewhat from those on deltaic coasts or coasts with high freshwater outflows, where flooding stress may play a larger role in regeneration failure, and from sandy coasts, where erosion may play a larger role in forest retreat. Regardless of the cause of tree regeneration failure, the development of relict stands may be a general forest response to sea-level rise.p Factors causing global degradation of coral reefs are examined briefly as a basis for predicting the likely consequences of increases in these factors. The earlier consensus was that widespread but localized damage from natural factors such as storms, and direct anthropogenic effects such as increased sedimentation, pollution and exploitation, posed the largest immediate threat to coral reefs. Now truly global factors associated with accelerating Global Climate Change are either damaging coral reefs or have the potential to inflict greater damage in the immediate future: e.g. increases in coral bleaching and mortality, and reductions in coral calcification due to changes in sea-water chemistry with increasing carbon dioxide concentrations. Rises in sea level will probably disrupt human communities and their cultures by making coral cays uninhabitable, whereas coral reefs will sustain minimal damage from the rise in sea level. The short-term (decades) prognosis is indeed grim, with major reductions almost certain in the extent and biodiversity of coral reefs, and severe disruptions to cultures and economies dependent on reef resources. The long-term (centuries to millennia) prognosis is more encouraging because coral reefs have remarkable resilience to severe disruption and will probably show this resilience in the future when climate changes either stabilize or reverse.[ Coral reefs have reconstituted themselves after previous large sea-level variations, and climate changes. For the past 6000 years of unusually stable sea-level, reefs have grown without serious interruptions. During recent decades, however, new stresses threaten localized devastation of many reefs. A new period of global climate change is occurring, stimulated by anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases. Coral reefs will cope well with predicted sea-level rises of 4.5 cm per decade, but reef islands will not. Higher sea levels will provide corals with greater room for growth across reef flats, but there are no foreseeable mechanisms for reef island growth to keep pace with sea-level rise, therefore many low islands may ultimately become uninhabitable. Climate change will introduce localized variations in weather patterns, but changes to individual reefs cannot be predicted. Reefs on average should cope well with regional climate change, as they have coped with similar previous fluctuations. Air temperature increases of 0.2-0.3 degrees C/decade will induce slower increases in sea-surface temperatures, which may cause localized, or regional increases in coral bleaching. Changes in rainfall will impact on reefs near land masses. Likewise, increased storms and variations in El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may stress some reefs, but not others. The greatest impact of climate change will be a synergistic enhancement of direct anthropogenic stresses (excessive sediment and pollution from the land; over-fishing, especially via destructive methods; mining of coral rock and sand; and engineering modifications), which currently cause most damage to coral reefs. Many of the world's reefs have been degraded and more will be damaged as anthropogenic impacts increase under the 'demophoric' increases in population (demos) and economic (phoric) activity. This biotic and habitat loss will result in severe economic and social losses. Reefs, however, have considerable recovery powers and losses can be minimized by effective management of direct human impacts and reducing indirect threats of global climate change. To aid climate policy decisions, accurate quantitative descriptions of the uncertainty in climate outcomes under various possible policies are needed. Here, we apply an earth systems model to describe the uncertainty in climate projections under two different policy scenarios. This study illustrates an internally consistent uncertainty analysis of one climate assessment modeling framework, propagating uncertainties in both economic and climate components, and constraining climate parameter uncertainties based on observation. We find that in the absence of greenhouse gas emissions restrictions, there is a one in forty chance that global mean surface temperature change will exceed 4.9degreesC by the year 2100. A policy case with aggressive emissions reductions over time lowers the temperature change to a one in forty chance of exceeding 3.2degreesC, thus reducing but not eliminating the chance of substantial warming. Coastal flooding from storm-surge events and sea-level rise is a major issue in Atlantic Canada. Airborne light detection and ranging (lidar) has the spatial density and vertical precision required to map coastal areas at risk of flooding from water levels typically 1-2 m higher than predicted tides during storm surges. In this study, a large < section of the New Brunswick coast along Northumberland Strait was surveyed in 2003 and 2004 using two lidar systems. Water levels from a major storm-surge event in Januar y 2000 were surveyed using a global positioning system (GPS) and used as a benchmark for flood-risk maps. Maps of flood depth were also generated for all water levels and used for socioeconomic and ecosystem impact assessment. Flood-risk maps were constructed using standard geographical information system (GIS) processing routines to determine the spatial extent of inundation for a given water level. The high resolution of the lidar digital elevation model (DEM) captured embankments such as raised roadbeds that could prevent flooding inland. Where connectivity was present due to culverts or bridges, the DEM was notched across the roadbed to simulate the connection between the ocean and upstream low-lying areas in the GIS. An automated routine was then used to generate maps of flood extent for water levels at 10 cm increments from 0 to 4 m above mean sea level. Validation of the flood-risk and flood-depth maps for the January 2000 storm-surge water level by field visits indicates that the simulations are generally accurate to within 10-20 cm. The lidar data were also used to evaluate the potential for overtopping and dune erosion on a large coastal spit, La Dune de Bouctouche. This showed a high vulnerability to storm damage for critical habitats on the spit. The lidar-derived maps produced in this study are now available to coastal communities and regional planners for use in the planning process and to assist in development of long-term adaptation strategies.Q Past research on the economic impacts of a climate-induced sea level rise has been based on the gradual erosion of the shoreline, and human adaptation. Erosion which is accelerated by sea level rise may also increase the vulnerability to storm damage by decreasing the distance between the shore and structures, and by eroding protective coastal features (dunes). We present methods of assessing this storm damage in coastal regions where structural protection is not pursued. Starting from the bounding cases of no foresight and perfect foresight of Yohe et al. (1996), we use a disaggregated analysis which models the random nature of storms, and models market valuation and private investor decisions dynamically. Using data from the National Flood Insurance Program and a hypothetical community, we estimate that although the total storm damage can be large, the increase in storm damage attributable to sea level rise is small (<5% of total sea level rise damages). These damages, however, could become more significant under other reasonable assumptions or where dune erosion increases storm damage. Population centers in low, small islands have water supply problems that are among the most critical in the world. Limited land areas and extremely large soil hydraulic conductivities severely reduce surface runoff and surface storage, so that thin lenses of fresh groundwater floating over seawater comprise the major source of fresh water for people in many atolls. Atoll groundwater is extremely vulnerable to frequent El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related droughts, salinization due to storm surges and sea-level rise, and to human activities with vadose zone transit times from surface to shallow groundwater being less than 1 h. We examine the relationship between groundwater, rainfall, and ENSO events in a low atoll, Tarawa, in the central and western Pacifi c Republic of Kiribati. Droughts can last as long as 43 months and occur with a current frequency of 6 to 7 years. The impact of droughts on the quality and quantity of a fresh groundwater lens is explored. The local drawdown of the water table due to pumping from long horizontal infiltration galleries is found to be less than diumal tidal variations. The saturated hydraulic conductivity, K-0, of the Holocene unconsolidated coral sands was estimated from infiltration gallery drawdown in two islands. The geometric mean K-0 was 14.6 m d(-1) with a range from 0.9 to 111 m d-(1). These large K-0 values cause the rapid transmission of rainfall and surface pollutants through the unsaturated zone to groundwater. An example is given of Escherichia coli pollution due to traditional activities. Strategies for improving the adaptation of island communities and increasing resilience to climate change are discussed. [ 1] We compare estimates of coastal and global averaged sea level for 1950 to 2000. During the 1990s and around 1970, we find coastal sea level is rising faster than the global average but that it rises slower than the global average during the late 1970s and late 1980s. The differences are largely a result of sampling the time- varying geographical distribution of sea level rise along a coastline which is more convoluted in some regions than others. More rapid coastal rise corresponds to La Nina - like conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean and a slower rate corresponds to El Nino - like conditions. Over the 51 year period, there is no significant difference in the rates of coastal and global averaged sea level rise, as found in climate model simulations of the 20th century. The best estimate of both global average and coastal sea level rise remains 1.8 +/- 0.3 mm yr(-1), as found in earlier studies.- Even if atmospheric composition were fixed today, global-mean temperature and sea level rise would continue due to oceanic thermal inertia. These constant-composition (CC) commitments and their uncertainties are quantified. Constant-emissions (CE) commitments are also considered. The CC warming commitment could exceed 1 degrees C. The CE warming commitment is 2 degrees to 6 degrees C by the year 2400. For sea level rise, the CC commitment is 10 centimeters per century (extreme range approximately 1 to 30 centimeters per century) and the CE commitment is 25 centimeters per century (7 to 50 centimeters per century). Avoiding these changes requires, eventually, a reduction in emissions to substantially below present levels. For sea level rise, a substantial long-term commitment may be impossible to avoid. Collision between the South Bismarck plate and the northern edge of the Australian plate has produced an actively subsiding foreland basin in the western Huon Gulf. A series of drowned carbonate platforms and pinnacles are preserved on this margin due to a combination of this rapid subsidence and eustatic sea-level changes over the last 450 ka. We analyzed sedimentary and coralgal data from the platforms to better understand lowstand reef development and drowning in the Huon Gulf. The recovered limestones are divided into five main sedimentary facies: coral reef, coralline-foraminiferal nodule, coralline-foraminiferal crust, Halimeda, and planktonic foraminiferal limestones. Based on a comparison with modern analogues in the Indo-Pacific and elsewhere, we identified coral reef, deep fore-reef slope, deeper fore-reef slope, and pelagic/hemipelagic paleoenvironmental settings. An analysis of facies relationships and their paleoenvironmental meanings revealed lowstand corals reefs preserved at the top of the platforms that grew within similar to10 m of sea level. Two different coral assemblages were identified within this facies: (1) a shallow, high energy reef community characteristic of windward margins and limited to the deep platforms (1947, 2121, 2393 m), and (2) another shallow community but indicative of more moderate lower energy reef conditions and limited to the middle (1113, 1217, 1612 m) and shallow platforms (823 m). The change from high to lower energy reef growth conditions suggests that oceanographic/climatic conditions in the Huon Gulf have changed substantially through time, primarily through the closure of the Gulf as a result of tectonic rotation and uplift of the Huon Peninsula over the last 450 ka. Despite major environmental perturbations (i.e. relative sea-level and temperature changes) the platforms and the shallow water coral reefs exposed at the top have been able to re-establish themselves time and time again over the last 450 ka. We also identified two different incip< ient drowning scenarios influenced by the rate of relative sea-level rise. More rapid drowning in the middle and deep platforms produced a thin veneer of coral line-foraminiferal nodule and Halimeda limestones over the shallow coral reef material while the slower drowning experienced by the shallowest platforms allowed thick coralline-foraminiferal crust limestones to develop. We recognize three main stages of platform development: (1) initiation and growth characterized by shallow coral reef growth as the platforms grew close to sea level during the lowstands, (2) incipient drowning marked by a shift to coralline-foraminiferal nodule, crust and Halimeda limestones as the platforms began to drown during rapid eustatic sea-level rise and continued subsidence, and (3) the complete drowning of the platforms characterized by platform 'turn off, increased bioerosion, Fe-Mn precipitation and pelagic/hemipelagic sedimentation as the platform surfaces finally drop below the photic zone. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. We present evidence that the drowning of the -150 m coral reef around Hawaii was caused by rapid sea-level rise associated with meltwater pulse 1A (MWP-1A) during the last deglaciation. New U/Th and C-14 accelerator mass spectrometry dates, combined with reinterpretation of existing radiometric dates, constrain the age of the coral reef to 15.2-14.7 ka (U/Th age), indicating that reef growth persisted for 4.3 k.y. following the end of the Last Glacial Maximum at 19 ka. The drowning age of the reef is roughly synchronous with the onset of MWP-1A between 14.7 and 14.2 ka. Dates from coralline algal material range from 14 to 10 cal ka (calibrated radiocarbon age), 1-4 k.y. younger than the coral ages. A paleoenvironmental reconstruction incorporating all available radiometric dates, high-resolution bathymetry, dive observations, and coralgal paleobathymetry data indicates a dramatic rise in sea level around Hawaii ca. 14.7 ka. Paleowater depths over the reef crest increased rapidly above a critical depth (30-40 m), drowning the shallow reef-building Porites corals and causing a shift to deep-water coralline algal growth, preserved as a crust on the drowned reef crest. Increasing rates of relative sea-level rise (RSL) have been linked to coastal wetland losses along the Gulf of Mexico and elsewhere. While such losses have yet to be reported for New England tidal marshes, rapidly rising RSL may still be affecting these systems. Studies of the Wequetequock-Pawcatuck tidal marshes over four decades have documented dramatic changes in vegetation that appear to be related primarily to differential rates of marsh accretion and sea-level rise. Other environmental factors such as sediment supply and anthropogenic modifications of the system may be involved as well. When initially studied in 1947-1948 the high marsh supported a Juncus gerardi-Spartina patens belting pattern typical of many New England salt marshes. On most of the marsh complex the former Juncus belt has been replaced by forbs, primarily Triglochin maritima, while the former S. patens high marsh is now a complex of vegetation types-stunted Spartina alterniflora, Distichlis spicata, forbs, and relic stands of S. patens. These changes are documented by vegetation sampling that closely followed the 1947-1948 methods and by peat core analysis. Marsh elevations were determined by leveling, and the mean surface elevation of areas where the vegetation has changed is significantly lower than that of areas still supporting the earlier pattern (4.6 vs. 13.9 cm above mean tide level). The differences in surface elevation reflect differences in accretion of marsh peat. Calculations based on sandy overwash layers deposited during historically recorded storms as well as on experimentally placed marker horizons of known age indicate that stable areas have been accreting at the rate of local sea-level rise, 2.0-2.5 mm/yr at least since 1938; changed areas have accreted at about one half that rate. Lower surface elevations result in greater frequency and duration of tidal flooding, and thus in increased peat saturation, salinity, and sulfide concentrations, and in decreased redox potential, as directly measured over the growing season at both changed and stable sites. It is proposed that these edaphic changes have combined to favor establishment of a wetter, more open vegetation type dominated by two distinctive communities-stunted S. alterniflora and forbs. Changes documented on the Wequetequock-Pawcatuck system have been observed on other Long Island Sound marshes and may serve as a model for the potential effects of sea-level rise on New England tidal salt marshes.p This study deals with incorporating predictions of sea level rise into practical municipal planning. Predictions of global mean sea level rise can be made with more confidence than many other aspects of climate change science. The world has warmed in the past century, and as a result global mean sea level has risen and is expected to continue to rise. Even so, there are significant uncertainties regarding predictions of sea level. These arise from two main sources: the future amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and the ability of models to predict the impact of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. Current knowledge regarding the effect of global warming on sea level rise is reviewed. Global mean sea level is expected to rise by 3-30 cm by 2040, and 9-88 cm by 2100. An important remaining uncertainty is the future contribution of surface water storage (for example, lakes and reservoirs) to changes in sea level. In addition, there are also significant local sea level effects that need to he taken account in many regions of the globe, including isostatic and tectonic effects. The thermal expansion component of sea level rise is also likely to vary regionally, due to regional differences in the rate of downward mixing of heat and to changes in ocean currents. The current state of planning for sea level rise in Australia is reviewed. While not all coastal municipalities include sea level rise in their planning schemes, the recent adoption in a number of States of new planning schemes with statutory authority creates a changed planning environment for local government. Coastal urban planning needs to take sea level rise into account because its effects will be apparent during the typical replacement time of urban infrastructure such as buildings (before about 70 years). For local planning, ideally a risk assessment methodology may be employed to estimate the risk caused by sea level rise. In many locations, planning thresholds would also have to be considered in the light of possible changes in storm surge climatology due to changes in storm frequency and intensity, and (in some locations) changes to return periods of riverine flooding. In the medium term (decades), urban beaches will need beach re-nourishment and associated holding structures such as sea walls. Changes in storm and wave climatology are crucial factors for determining future coastal erosion. Complete collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) would raise global sea level by around 5 m, but whether collapse is likely, or even possible, has been `glaciology's grand unsolved problem' for more than two decades. Collapse of WAIS may result from readjustments continuing since the last glacial maximum, or more recent climate change, but it is also possible that collapse will result from internal flow instabilities, or not occur at all in the present inter-glacial. Such complexity led the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to conclude in its Second Assessment Report that `estimating the likelihood of a collapse during the next century is not yet possible'. However, a refusal by scientists to estimate the risk leaves policy-makers with no sound scientific basis on which to respond to legitimate public concerns. Here we present a discussion of the likelihood of WAIS-collapse, drawing input from an interdisciplinary panel of experts. The results help to summarise the state of scientific knowledge and uncertainty. While the overall opinion of the panel was th< at WAIS most likely will not collapse in the next few centuries, their uncertainty retains a 5% probability of WAIS causing sea level rise at least 10 mm/year within 200 years. Since this uncertainty reflects both the unpredictability of the physical system and the scientific uncertainty, it will undoubtedly change as a better understanding is established. The paper reveals some recent findings considering global sea level rise, and the vulnerability for some regions in the world. Sea level rise in the Adriatic is given in contest of storm surge activity, and their influence on the coastal infrastructure. Risk analysis performed on the data collected at Rovinj outlines that the occurrence of storm surges with certain heights will be multiplied within next 100 years, if the projections of sea level rise will take place. Case studies in December 1997 and November 1999 are presented, by analyzing sea level data from tide gauge stations placed on the east Adriatic and some meteorological parameters. The first case reveals the occurrence of free oscillations - seiches - and its possible impact on the coastal areas, while the second gives an example of strong storm occurring locally, but producing a considerable damages on the coastal infrastructure. Estimates of 20th Century sea level rise are typically 1.5 to 2 mm/y, with a steric contribution of (0.5 +/- 0.2) mm/y. Estimates of the eustatic contribution vary widely between -1.1 and + 1.3 mm/y. We attempt an independent estimate of eustatic sea level rise based on the measured freshening of the global ocean, and with attention to the contribution from melting of sea ice (which affects freshening but not sea level). Our estimate is based on a secular decrease in global average salinity estimated by Antonov et al. [2002] which, if assumed due entirely to run-off, would produce a eustatic rise of (1.8 +/- 0.7) mm/y, and would correspond to a run-off volume of 650 cu km/y. Measurements with upward looking sonars mounted on submarines have suggested a historical thinning of the arctic ice sheet equivalent to 525 +/- 105 cu km/y. Allowing for some growth in Antarctic sea ice, a reduced figure of (430 +/- 130) cu km/y is obtained, allowing about 220 cu km/y of run-off from land sources such as glaciers. This would produce a eustatic rise of only 0.6 mm/y, for a total of 1.1 mm/y, somewhat less than IPCC estimates. This also has implications for our understanding of glacial retreat for a total of 1.1 mm/y. We constructed a detailed relative sea-level rise curve for the last 1500 years using a novel approach, i.e. charting the rate of relative sea-level rise using microfaunal and geochemical data from a coastal salt marsh sequence (Clinton, CT, USA). The composition of benthic foraminiferal assemblages and the iron abundance in peats were used to describe shifts in marsh environment through time quantitatively. The resulting sea-level rise curve, with age control from C-14 dating and the onset of anthropogenic metal pollution, shows strong increases in the rate of relative sea-level rise during modem global warming (since the late nineteenth century), but not during the Little Climate Optimum (AD 1000-1300). There was virtually no rise in sea-level during the Little Ice Age (AD 1400-1700). Most of the relative sea-level rise over the last 1200 years in Clinton appears to have occurred during two warm episodes that jointly lasted less than 600 years. Changes from slow to fast rates of relative sea-level rise apparently occurred over periods of only a few decades. We suggest that changes in ocean circulation could contribute to the sudden increases in the rate of relative sea-level rise along the northeastern USA seaboard. Relative sea-level rise in that area is currently faster than the worldwide average, which may result partially from an ocean surface effect caused by hydrodynamics. Our data show no unequivocal correlation between warm periods (on a decaal to centennial time-scale) and accelerated sea-level rise. One period of acclerated sea-level rise may have occurred between about AD 1200 and 1450, which was the transition for the Little Climate Optimum to the Little Ice Age, i.e. a period of cooling (at least in northwestern Europe). Local changes in tidal range might also have contributed to this apparent increase in the rate of relative sea-level, however. The second period of accelerated sea-level rise occurred during the period of modem global warming that started at the end of the last century. Coastal plains are in the frontline of climate change. Predicted increase in recharge and sea level rise will alter groundwater flow, water quality distribution, recharge, and discharge considerably. This is simulated here in the Belgian western coastal plain. lt consists of a shore, dunes, and polder (low-lying area) with a heterogeneous groundwater reservoir of quaternary age. A three-dimensional density-dependent groundwater flow model based on numerous (hydro)geologic observations was made. First the current groundwater flow and distribution between fresh and salt water was simulated. Then the effects of a 15% recharge increase and 0.4 m of sea level rise in the next 100 years were modelled. Sea level rise results in an increased flow of fresh water toward the polder and a decreased flow toward the sea. An increase in recharge results in more water flowing toward both the polder and the sea. Brackish water present in the polder will be pushed back as is a current saltwater intrusion from the polder in the dunes. The simulations also show that groundwater levels will rise. This will put strain on the ecologically valuable dunes and the drainage system in the polders. Based on historical hindsight, this paper shows that sea-level rise has played a fundamental role in the development of the low-lying environment of the Netherlands. It was beneficial in morphological terms during the mid-Holocene, but from Roman times, it has been a threat to the coastal zone evolution and human habitation. Collective human response started to play a role in coastal evolution as early as the ninth century, while its influence started to become a major factor during the nineteenth and twentieth century. Throughout its history, Dutch society has always been receptive to new technologies, approaches, and policies in its dealings with the many water-related challenges. The success of concerted human response explains why the water boards were successful as the first democratic institutions in the Netherlands. Development of technology and increasing financial means (the Dutch Golden Age) gave rise to increasingly viable flood abatement measures and reclamation projects, which took place on increasingly larger scales. This culminated in large-scale works such as the closure of the Zuiderzee and the Delta Project in the twentieth century. During this project, a turning point in thinking emerged; while flood protection remained a top priority, human interventions were considered in a broader, more holistic context with natural values being weighed against socioeconomic interests. In the face of the challenges of the twenty-first century, policy and management approaches as well as science and technology approaches need to be adapted further in accordance to the principles of working with nature in a trans-disciplinary way. The success of this adaptation will to a large extent determine the viability of the Dutch society as a whole. Quantitative evaluation of fluvial response to allogenic controls is crucial for further progress in understanding the stratigraphic record in terms of processes that control landscape evolution. For instance, without quantitative insight into time lags that are known to exist between sea-level change and fluvial response, there is no way to relate fluvial stratigraphy to the sea-level curve. It is difficult to put firm constraints on these time-lag relationships on the basis of empirical studies. Therefore, we have started to quantify time-averaged erosion and deposition in the fluvial and offshore realms in response to sea-level change by means of analogue modelling in a 4 x 8-m flume tank. The rate of sea-lev< el change was chosen as an independent variable, with other factors such as sediment supply, discharge and initial geometry kept constant over the course of 18 experiments. Our experimental results support the common view that neither fall nor rise in sea level affects the upstream fluvial system instantaneously. An important cause for the delayed fluvial response is that a certain amount of time is required to connect initial incisions on the newly emergent shelf (canyons) with the fluvial valley. Lowering of the fluvial longitudinal profile starts only after the connection of an active shelf canyon with the fluvial valley; until that moment the profile remains steady. We quantified the process of connection and introduced the quantity 'connection rate'. It controlled, in conjunction with the rate of sea-level fall: (1) the amount of fluvial degradation during sea-level fall; (2) the total sediment volume that bypasses the shelf edge; (3) the percentage of fluvial relative to shelf sediment in the lowstand delta; (4) the volume of the transgressive systems tract and (5) the amount of diachroneity along the sequence boundary. Our experiments demonstrate also that the sequence-stratigraphic concept is difficult to apply to continental successions, even when these successions have been deposited within the influence of sea level. The authors consider the role of institutional networks in integrated and inclusive coastal-zone management in Trinidad and Tobago. Drawing on theories of social institutions, a framework for understanding the institutional prerequisites for participatory management is developed. In this framework, distinction is made between institutions at the community, formal-organisational, and national regulatory levels and the means by which institutions adapt to and learn about new issues in terms of networks of dependence and exchange are characterised. The immediate networks between actors (their spaces of dependence) are augmented by wider networks between institutions at various scales (their spaces of exchange). This framework is applied to a case study of resource management in Trinidad and Tobago. Semistructured interviews with key government urban and economic planners, fisheries regulators, and other agents in Trinidad and Tobago, and a participatory workshop for resource managers, are used to identify the perceived opportunities and constraints relating to integrated and inclusive resource management within the social institutions. The findings are analysed through an exploration of the spaces of dependence and exchange that exist in the various social networks at the different institutional scales. The prescriptive relevance of this approach is in the demonstration of the nature of change required in social institutions at all scales to facilitate integrated and inclusive resource management.W The risk that tropical storm occurrence may alter as a result of global warming presents coastal managers, particularly in vulnerable areas, with a serious challenge. Many countries are hard-pressed to protect their coastal resources against present-day hazards, let alone any increased threat in the future. Moreover, the threat posed by climate change is uncertain making the increased costs of protection difficult to justify. Here, we examine one management strategy, based on the rehabilitation of the mangrove ecosystem, which may provide a dual, "win-win" benefit in improving the livelihood of local resource users as well as enhancing sea defences. The strategy,therefore,represent a precautionary approach to climate impact mitigation. This paper quantifies the economic benefits of mangrove rehabilitation undertaken, inter alia, to enhance sea defence systems in three coastal Districts of northern Vietnam. The results of the analysis show that mangrove rehabilitation can be desirable from an economic perspective based solely on the direct use benefits by local communities. Such activities have even higher benefit cost ratios with the inclusion of the indirect benefits resulting from the avoided maintenance cost for the sea dike system which the mangrove stands protect from coastal storm surges. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. [1] The steric sea level variability in the Mediterranean Sea is estimated from the Medar climatology. Temperature variations cause most of the overall steric sea level change in the upper 400 m. Between 1960 and the 1990s cooling of the upper waters of the Eastern Mediterranean caused reduction in the steric heights while after 1993 warming caused sea level to rise. The steric sea level changes in the upper waters of the Adriatic and the Aegean Sea are correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. The comparison between the steric sea levels and coastal tide-gauges is unsatisfactory. This discrepancy questions both the practice of estimating basin-wide sea level changes on point measurements and the use of steric height variations as measures of sea level variability in areas less sampled than the Mediterranean. Moreover the diverse behaviour of the Eastern Mediterranean at sub-basin scales questions the meaningfulness of climatic basin averages. [1] Forcing mechanisms for sea level variability in the Black Sea are investigated in the [context of an observed increase in the sea level of this basin by 2.5 mm/yr over the last 60 years. Temperature and salinity variations computed from the Mediterranean Data Archeology and Rescue (MEDAR) data set exhibit significant interdecadal variability. However, the corresponding steric height variation does not show a long-term increase and thus cannot account for the observed change in sea level. The impact of surface freshwater flux (P-E) changes is also investigated using two independent data sets. The first data set, which is based on measurements collected in the basin, can explain most of the sea level variability, with only 0.8 mm/yr remaining unexplained. The second data set, output from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis, is unable to explain any of the observed trend. Potential contributions from changes in river runoff and surface pressure are quantified but found to be minor terms. By comparing the observed salinity changes with the sea level rise and the P-E variability in the first data set, we infer that the P-E variations are the primary cause for the observed sea level rise, while land movements are likely to partly contribute, too. The relationship of Black Sea temperature and salinity variability with corresponding variability in the connected Aegean Sea has also been explored. A significant correlation is found between the salinity of the upper water of the Aegean Sea and the layer between 50 and 300 m in the Black Sea, indicating that the latter layer is a product of the Mediterranean inflow. I examined four hypotheses about causes for the dramatically high coastal wetland losses (0.86% yr(-1)) in the northern Gulf of Mexico: an extensive dredged canal and spoil bank network, a decline in sediments in the Mississippi River during the 1950s, Mississippi River navigation and flood protection levees, and salinity changes. Natural factors contributing to these habitat changes include eustatic sea-level rise and geological compaction, which appear to have remained relatively constant this century, although variation does occur. These four hypotheses were tested using data on land-to-water changes in 15-min quadrangle maps inventoried for four intervals between the 1930s and 1990. Land loss rates were directly proportional to changes in wetland hydrology in time and space. A linear regression of the direct losses due to dredging versus the losses due to all other factors (indirect losses) had a zero intercept and a slope that increased with time. The ratio indirect:direct land loss was highest nearest the estuarine entrance. The coastwide patterns of land loss do not appear to be affected by riverine sediment reductions over the last 60 yr. The effects of changes in wetland hydrology from dredging human-made channels and forming dredged spoil banks appear to be the most < efficacious hypothesis explaining these dramatic losses. The effects of extensive human-induced changes on this coast have apparently overwhelmed the causal linkages identified in the historical re-constructionist view of deltaic gain and loss that emphasizes the role of mineral sediments. A paradigm shift is therefore proposed that emphasizes a broad ecological view as contrasted to a mostly physical view emphasizing the role of sediment supply in wetland maintenance. In this view, plants are not an ancillary consequence of strictly geological dynamics such as sediment supply but are dominant agents controlling factors relevant to coastal restoration and management efforts. Littoral areas of the British Isles present an array of properties and features which have long been exploited by human populations and have contributed to the wealth and the quality of life of the nation. Past and ongoing differentiation in uses of coastal zones has led to conflicts ranging from deleterious effects on supporting ecosystems to symbiosis with human activities. This paper aims to elicit the main forces influencing the development of coastal areas and the means available to assess the present use and manage future exploitation of the coastal zone, following the P-S-I-R Framework and an ecosystem function-based valuation methodology. A variety of pressures and their trends is analysed (climate change, population and tourism changes, port development, hydrocarbon and marine aggregate extraction and pollution). Al these factors are examined in the context of the sustainable use of coastal resources and on the basis of an interdisciplinary ecological economics approach. Sea level rise is one of the potential consequences of human induced global climate change, and coastal zones, together with their inhabitants, may be becoming more susceptible and vulnerable to such external shocks and related damage impacts. Global, regional, and national scale studies have been undertaken in an attempt to assess the future threat posed by sea level rise. To date none of these studies have fully encompassed the relationship between the physical change impacts and the socioeconomic implications. The authors utilise both a 'GDP-at-risk' and an economic cost-benefit approach, in combination with biophysical analysis, to model the impacts of sea level rise along the East Anglian coastline of eastern England. The economic results indicate that for most sea-level-rise predictions the protect strategy is economically justifiable on a region-wide basis. At a more localised scale a combination of response options, including 'do nothing and retreat', may be optimal. This paper develops a decision support system for evaluation of wetland ecosystem management strategy and examines its, so far partial, application in a case study of an important complex coastal wetland known as the Norfolk and Suffolk Broads, in the east of England, UK. Most managed ecosystems are complex and often poorly understood hierarchically organized systems. Capturing the range of relevant impacts on natural and human systems under different management options will be a formidable challenge. Biodiversity has a hierarchical structure which ranges from the ecosystem and landscape level, through the community level and down to the population and genetic level. There is a need to develop methodologies for the practicable detection of ecosystem change, as well as the evaluation of different ecological functions. What is also required is a set of indicators (environmental, social and economic) which facilitate the detection of change in ecosystems suffering stress and shock and highlight possible drivers of the change process. A hierarchical classification of ecological indicators of sustainability would need to take into account existing interactions between different organization levels, from species to ecosystems. Effects of environmental stress are expressed in different ways at different levels of biological organization and effects at one level can be expected to impact other levels, often in unpredictable ways. The management strategy, evaluation methodologies and indicators adopted should also assess on sustainability grounds whether any given management option is supporting, or reducing, the diversity of functions which are providing stakeholders with the welfare benefits they require. This paper assesses the status of coastal zones in the context of expected climate change and its related impacts, as well as current and future socioeconomic pressures and impacts. It is argued that external stresses and shocks relating to sea-level rise and other changes will tend to exacerbate existing environmental pressures and damage in coastal zones. Coastal zones are under increasing stress because of an interrelated set of planning failures including information, economic market, and policy intervention failures. Moves towards integrated coastal zone management are urgently required to guide the coevolution of natural and human systems. Overtly technocentric claims that assessments of vulnerability undertaken to date are overestimates of likely future damages from global warming are premature. While it is the case that forecasts of sea-level rise have been scaled down, much uncertainty remains over, for example, combined storm, sea surge, and other events. In any case, within the socioeconomic analyses of the problem, resource valuations have been at best only partial and have failed to incorporate sensitivity analysis in terms of the discount rates utilized. This would indicate an underestimation of potential damage costs. Overall, a precautionary approach is justified based on the need to act ahead of adequate information acquisition, economically efficient resource pricing and proactive coastal planning. The contradiction between the claim for integrated management of the coastal areas by the UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED, 1992), on the one hand, and the persistence of analytical epistemological approaches by the scientific community on the other, is discussed. In this context, it is emphasised how the modern approach led to the desegregation of the ocean into two realms, namely the coastal ocean subject to national jurisdiction, and the international ocean, making it difficult to design and operate integrated management. Moreover, the international ocean is vertically subdivided into two realms, namely the water column, having the status of res nullius, and the deep seabed, claimed as patrimony of mankind; hence the increasing difficulty in operating the protection of the ocean ecosystem and the efficient use of its resources while the human pressure on the ocean is growing without precedent. A positive feedback is needed between science and policy, the former being encouraged to overcome the analytical, modern approach; the latter being keen to consider the long term humankind-sensitive interest above the national interests. The role of geography in contributing to these prospects is discussed in the final part. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. Complexity theory predicts that local feedback processes may strongly affect the organization of ecosystems on larger spatial scales. Whether complexity leads to increased resilience and stability or to increased vulnerability and criticality remains one of the dominant questions in ecology. We present a combined theoretical and empirical study of complex dynamics in mineralogenic salt marsh ecosystems that emerge from a positive feedback between clay accumulation and plant growth. Positive feedback induces self-organizing within the ecosystem, which buffers for the strong physical gradient that characterizes the marine-terrestrial boundary, and improves plant growth along the gradient. However, as a consequence of these self-organizing properties, salt marshes approach a critical state as the edge of the salt marsh and the adjacent intertidal flat becomes increasingly steep and vulnerable to wave attack. Disturbance caused, for instance, by a storm may induce a cascade of vegetation collapse and severe erosion on the cliff edge, leading to salt mars< h destruction. Our study shows that on short timescales, self-organization improves the functioning of salt marsh ecosystems. On long timescales, however, self-organization may lead to destruction of salt marsh vegetation./ The vulnerability of society on extreme weather has resulted in extensive research on the statistics of extremes. Although the theoretical framework of extreme value statistics is well developed, meteorological applications are often limited by the relative shortness of the available datasets. In order to overcome this problem, we use archived data from all past seasonal forecast ensemble runs of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). For regions where the forecasts have very little seasonal skill the archived seasonal forecast ensembles provide independent sets that cumulate to over 1500 years. We illustrate this approach by estimating 10(4)-year sea-surge levels at high-tide along the Dutch coast. No physical mechanisms occur in the ECMWF model that make the distribution of very extreme surges different from what is inferred from a direct analysis of the observations. In comparison with the observational sets, the ECMWF set shows a decrease in the statistical uncertainty of the estimated 10(4)-year return value by a factor four.& The estuary-dominated coast of the Greater Thames in England has experienced rapid lateral erosion and internal dissection of saltmarshes. This paper provides an overview of saltmarsh development in this area, and re-examines the role of environmental and human forcing factors. It draws on documentary evidence, including historical maps, survey data and time-series data of forcing factors. Lateral marsh retreat began in the 19th century in the Medway and Blackwater Estuaries, followed by other estuaries in the Greater Thames region at the beginning of the 20th century. The outer estuaries and the wider parts of the inner estuaries especially have experienced erosion. Erosion has been modest in wave-sheltered areas, e.g., the Colne and the inner Crouch. In the 1960s and, more widely, the 1970s, a phase of rapid erosion took place, with erosion rates of up to ca. 16 ha year(-1) per site, notably along the open coast of Dengie and Foulness, and in the Blackwater and Thames Estuaries. At all sites, vertical sediment accretion was well able to keep up with sea level rise over the past century. Evidence indicates that there may have been several causes for the erosion of saltmarshes. These are notably land claim and embankment construction (increasing the tidal range and current velocities) and a continuous rise of, especially, high and extreme water levels. The latest episode of rapid erosion in the 1970s is largely attributed to changes in the wind/wave climate. For example, erosion at wave-exposed sites coincided with a peak in high magnitude waves combined with a high incidence of southeasterly waves. The study shows that many factors, including natural forcing factors and human activities, have to be taken into account when explaining saltmarsh development. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Climate change adaptation and mitigation decisions made by governments are usually taken in different policy domains. At the individual level however, adaptation and mitigation activities are undertaken together as part of the management of risk and resources. We propose that a useful starting point to develop a national climate policy is to understand what societal response might mean in practice. First we frame the set of responses at the national policy level as a trade off between investment in the development and diffusion of new technology, and investment in encouraging and enabling society to change its behaviour and or adopt the new technology. We argue that these are the pertinent trade-offs, rather than those usually posited between climate change mitigation and adaptation. The preference for a policy response that focuses more on technological innovation rather than one that focuses on changing social behaviour will be influenced by the capacity of different societies to change their greenhouse gas emissions; by perceived vulnerability to climate impacts; and by capacity to modify social behaviour and physical environment. Starting with this complete vision of response options should enable policy makers to re-evaluate the risk environment and the set of response options available to them. From here, policy makers should consider who is responsible for making climate response decisions and when actions should be taken. Institutional arrangements dictate social and political acceptability of different policies, they structure worldviews, and they determine the provision of resources for investment in technological innovation and social change. The importance of focussing on the timing of the response is emphasised to maximise the potential for adjustments through social learning and institutional change at different policy scales. We argue that the ability to respond to climate change is both enabled and constrained by social and technological conditions. The ability of society to respond to climate change and the need for technological change for both decarbonisation and for dealing with surprise in general, are central to concepts of sustainable development. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Monetised estimates of the impact of climate change are derived. Impacts are expressed as functions of climate change and `vulnerability'. Vulnerability is measured by a series of indicators, such as per capita income, population above 65, and economic structure. Impacts are estimated for nine world regions, for the period 2000-2200, for agriculture, forestry, water resources, energy consumption, sea level rise, ecosystems, fatal vector-borne diseases, and fatal cardiovascular and respiratory disorders. Uncertainties are large, often including sign switches. In the short term, the estimated sensitivity of a sector to climate change is found to be the crucial parameter. In the longer term, the change in the vulnerability of the sector is often more important for the total impact. Impacts can be negative or positive, depending on the time, region, and sector one is looking at. Negative impacts tend to dominate in the later years and in the poorer regions.f A selection of the potential impacts of climate change - on agriculture, forestry, unmanaged ecosystems, sea level rise, human mortality, energy consumption, and water resources - are estimated and valued in monetary terms. Estimates are derived from globally comprehensive, internally consistent studies using GCM based scenarios. An underestimate of the uncertainty is given. New impact studies can be included following the meta-analytical methods described here. A 1 degreesC increase in the global mean surface air temperature would have, on balance, a positive effect on the OECD, China, and the Middle East, and a negative effect on other countries. Confidence intervals of regionally aggregated impacts, however, include both positive and negative impacts for all regions. Global estimates depend on the aggregation rule. Using a simple sum, world impact of a 1 degreesC warming would be a positive 2% of GDP, with a standard deviation of 1%. Using globally averaged values, world impact would be a negative 3% (standard deviation: 1%). Using equity weighting, world impact would amount to 0% (standard deviation: 1%). Adaptation to climate change and mitigation of climate change are policy substitutes, as both reduce the impacts of climate change. Adaptation and mitigation should therefore be analysed together, as they indeed are, albeit in a rudimentary way, in cost-benefit analyses of emission abatement. However, adaptation and mitigation are done by different people operating at different spatial and temporal scales. This hampers analysis of the trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation. An exception is facilitative adaptation (enhancing adaptive capacity), which, like mitigation, requires long-term policies at macro level. Facilitative adaptation and mitigation not only both reduce impacts, but they also compete for resources. (c) 200< 5 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. There is an unknown but probably small probability that the West-Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) will collapse because of anthropogenic climate change. A WAIS collapse could cause a 5-6 metre global sea level rise within centuries. In three case studies, we investigate the response of society to the most extreme yet not implausible scenario, a five-metre sea level rise within a century, starting in 2030. The case studies combine a series of interviews with experts and stakeholders with a gaming workshop. In the Rhone delta, the most likely option would be retreat, with economic losses, perhaps social losses, and maybe ecological gains. In the Thames estuary, the probable outcome is less clear, but would probably be a mix of protection, accommodation and retreat, with parts of the city centre turned into a Venice of London. A massive downstream barrier is an alternative response. In the Rhine delta (the Netherlands), the initial response would be protection, followed by retreat from the economically less important parts of the country and, probably, from Amsterdam Rotterdam metropolitan region as well. These impacts are large compared to other climate change impacts, but probably small compared to the impacts of the same scenario in other parts of the world. This suggests that the possibility of a anthropogenic-climate-change-induced WAIS collapse would strengthen the case for greenhouse gas emission reduction. Customary international law has that countries may do each other no harm. A country violates this rule if an activity under its control does damage to another country, and if this is done on purpose or due to carelessness. Impacts of climate change fall under this rule, which is reinforced by many declarations and treaties, including the UNFCCC. Compensation for the harm done depends on many parameters, such as emission scenarios, climate change, climate change impacts and its accounting. The compensation paid by the OECD may run up to 4% of its GDP, far exceeding the costs of climate change to the OECD directly. However, the most crucial issues are. first, front when countries can be held responsible and, second, which emissions are acceptable and which careless. This may even be interpreted such that the countries of the OECD are entitled to compensation, rather than be obliged to pay. State responsibility could substantially change international climate policy. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.t Adaptation is defined as the planned or unplanned, reactive or anticipatory, successful or unsuccessful response of a system to a change in its environment. This paper examines the current status of adaptation to sea-level rise and climate change in the context of European coasts. Adaptation can greatly reduce the impact of sea-level rise (and other coastal changes), although it requires adjustment of coastal management policies to changing circumstances. Consequently, adaptation is a social, political, and economic process, rather than just a technical exercise, as it is often conceived. The Synthesis and Upscaling of sea-level Rise Vulnerability Assessment Studies project has shown that adaptation to sea-level rise is widely divergent among European countries. Crudely, four groups of countries were identified: 1. Those that do not worry about accelerated sea-level rise and should not as their coasts are not susceptible 2. Those that do not worry as they have more urgent problems 3. Those that do not worry but probably should 4. Those that do worry and have started to adapt At the European Union level, while coastal management is a focus, this effort is mainly targeted at today's problems. Hence, this paper suggests the need for a concerted effort to address adaptation in coastal zones across Europe. Sharing of experience among countries would facilitate this process. The view is widely held that proactive integrated management of coastal zones is a rewarding strategy in the long run. It appears, however, rather difficult to substantiate this claim, both theoretically and empirically. Theoretically, first of all because the concepts of 'proactive' and 'integrated' still await their proper definitions and second, because the role of seemingly important variables and their interactions is not well understood, including the discount rate, the process of technological development and decision making under uncertainty. In addition, extensive empirical information is needed on the positive and negative external effects, their costs and benefits in time, as well as the investments and operational costs of coastal zone management strategies, whether integrated or not. Resolving these issues is beyond the scope of this paper, which merely attempts to highlight some of the relevant aspects and to provide some theoretical argumentation and conditions in favour of proactive integrated coastal zone management. This argumentation concerns external effects, economics of scale, the discount rate, the precautionary principle and the question 'learn or act?' with regard to decision making under uncertainty. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd Neither the costs nor the benefits of adaptation to climate change have been systematically studied so far. This paper discusses the extent to which the vast body of literature on climate change impacts can provide insights into the scope and likely cost of adaptation. The ways in which the impacts literature deals with adaptation can be grouped into four categories: no adaptation, arbitrary adaptation observed adaptation (analogues), and modeled adaptation (optimization), All four cases are characterized by the simple assumptions made about the mechanisms of adaptation. No or only scant attention is paid to the process of adapting to a new climate. Adaptation analysis has to acknowledge that people will be neither dumb nor brilliant at adapting. They are likely to see the need for change, but may be constrained in their ability to adapt or in their comprehension of the permanence and direction of change, (C) 1998 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd, All rights reserved. This paper examines contemporary national scale responses to tropical storm risk in a small island in the Caribbean to derive lessons for adapting to climate change. There is little empirical evidence to guide national planners on how to adapt to climate change, and less still on how to build on past adaptation experiences. The paper investigates the construction of institutional resilience and the process of adaptation to tropical storm risk by the Cayman Islands' Government from 1988 to 2002. It explains the roles of persuasion, exposure and collective action as key components in developing the ability to buffer external disturbance using models of institutional economics and social resilience concepts. The study finds that self-efficacy, strong local and international support networks, combined with a willingness to act collectively and to learn from mistakes appear to have increased the resilience of the Cayman Islands' Government to tropical storm risk. The lessons learned from building resilience to storm risk can contribute to the creation of national level adaptive capacity to climate change, but climate change has to be prioritised before these lessons can be transferred. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change requires nations to implement measures for adapting to rising sea level and other effects of changing climate. To decide upon an appropriate response, coastal planners and engineers must weigh the cost of these measures against the likely cost of failing to prepare, which depends on the probability of the sea rising a particular amount. This study estimates such a probability distribution, using models employed by previous assessments, as well as the subjective assessments of twenty climate and glaciology reviewers about the values of particular model coefficients. The reviewer assumptions imply a 50 percent chance that the average global temperature will rise 2 degrees C, as well as a 5 percent chance that temperatures will rise 4.< 7 degrees C by 2100. The resulting impact of climate change on sea level has a 50 percent chance of exceeding 34 cm and a 1% chance of exceeding one meter by the year 2100, as well as a 3 percent chance of a 2 meter rise and a 1 percent chance of a 4 meter rise by the year 2200. The models and assumptions employed by this study suggest that greenhouse gases have contributed 0.5 mm/yr to sea level over the last century. Tidal gauges suggest that sea level is rising about 1.8 mm/yr worldwide, and 2.5-3.0 mm/yr along most of the U.S. Coast. It is reasonable to expect that sea level in most locations will continue to rise more rapidly than the contribution from climate change alone. We provide a set of 'normalized' projections which express the extent to which climate change is likely to accelerate the rate of sea level rise. Those projections suggest that there is a 65 percent chance that sea level will rise 1 mm/yr more rapidly in the next 30 years than it has been rising in the last century. Assuming that nonclimatic factors do not change, there is a 50 percent chance that global sea level will rise 45 cm, and a 1 percent chance of a 112 cm rise by the year 2100; the corresponding estimates for New York City are 55 and 122 cm. Climate change impact assessments concerning agriculture, forests, water resources, and other noncoastal resources should also employ probability-based projections of regional climate change. Results from general circulation models usually provide neither the most likely scenario nor the full range of possible outcomes; probabilistic projections do convey this information. Moreover, probabilistic projections can make use of all the available knowledge, including the views of skeptics; the opinions of those who study ice cores, fossils, and other empirical evidence; and the insights of climate modelers, which may be as useful as the model results themselves.5 Climatologists generally expect an anthropogenic global warming that could raise sea level 30-150 cm in the next century and more thereafter. One of the impacts would be the loss of coastal wetlands. Although the inundation of adjacent dryland would enable new wetlands to form, much of this land is or will soon be developed. If developed areas are protected, wetlands will be squeezed between an advancing sea and the land being protected, which has already happened in China and the Netherlands, where people have built dikes for centuries. Unlike those countries, the United States has enough land to accommodate the landward migration of wetlands; but governments lack the funds to purchase all the coastal lowlands that might inundated and the legal authority to prohibit their development. We propose a third approach: allowing property owners to use coastal lowlands today as they choose, but setting up a legal mechanism to ensure that the land is abandoned if and when sea level rises enough to inundate it. Although compensation may be required, this approach would cost less than 1% as much as purchasing the land, and would be (1) economically efficient by enabling real estate markets to incorporate expectations of future sea level rise; (2) constitutional by compensating property owners; and (3) politically feasible by pleasing people who care about the long-term fate of the coastal environment without disturbing people who either are unconcerned about the distant future or do not believe sea level will rise. This article demonstrates that it would be irrational to delay policy formulation until sea level rise projections are more precise. The cost will be small if we act now but great if we wait, and sea level is already rising along most coasts. The US government should develop a strategy in the next three years.\ Previous studies suggest that the expected global warming from the greenhouse effect could raise sea level 50 to 200 cm (2 to 7 ft) in the next century. This article presents the first nationwide assessment of the primary impacts of such a rise on the United States: (1) the cost of protecting ocean resort communities by pumping sand onto beaches and gradually raising barrier islands in place; (2) the cost of protecting developed areas along sheltered waters through the use of levees (dikes) and bulkheads; and (3) the loss of coastal wetlands and undeveloped lowlands. The total cost for a 1-m rise would be between $270 and $475 billion, ignoring future development. We estimate that if no measures are taken to hold back the sea, a 1-m rise in sea level would inundate 30,000 sq km (14,000 sq mi), with wet and dry land each accounting for about half the loss. The 1500 sq km (600-700 sq mi) of densely developed coastal lowlands could be protected for approximately $1000 to $2000 per year for a typical coastal lot. Given high coastal property values, holding back the sea would probably be cost-effective. The environmental consequences of doing so, however, may not be acceptable. Although the most common engineering solution for protecting the ocean coast, pumping sand, would allow us to keep our beaches, levees and bulkheads along sheltered waters would gradually eliminate most of the nation's wetland shorelines. To ensure the long-term survival of coastal wetlands, federal and state environmental agencies should begin to lay the groundwork for a gradual abandonment of coastal lowlands as sea level rises. Understanding the broad-scale ramifications of accelerated sea level rise requires maps of the land that could be inundated or eroded. Producing such maps requires a combination of elevation information and models of shoreline erosion, wetland accretion, and other coastal processes. Assessments of coastal areas in the United States that combine all of these factors have focused on relatively small areas, usually 25 to 30 km wide. In many cases, the results are as sensitive to uncertainty regarding geological processes as to the rate of sea level rise. This paper presents maps illustrating the elevations of lands close to sea level. Although elevation contours do not necessarily coincide with future shorelines, the former is more transparent and less dependent on subjective modeling, Several methods are available for inferring elevations given limited data, This paper uses the US Geological Survey (USGS) 1degrees digital elevation series and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shoreline data to illustrate the land below the 1.5 and 3.5 m contours for areas the size of entire US states or larger, The maps imply that approximately 58 000 km(2) of land along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts lie below the 1.5 m contour. Louisiana, Florida, Texas, and North Carolina account fur more than 80% of the low land, Outside of those 4 states, the largest vulnerable populated region is the land along the Eastern Shore of Chesapeake Bay stretching from Dorchester County, Maryland, to Accomac County, Virginia. Rocky shores occur at the interface of the land and sea. Typically they are open ecosystems, with steep environmental gradients. Their accessibility to man has rendered them susceptible to a variety of impacts since prehistoric times. Access can be regulated, however, and they are more amenable to management than open ocean habitats. This review uses examples from throughout the world to demonstrate the extent to which rocky shores have been, and are currently, affected by pollution (examples used are endocrine disrupters, oil, eutrophication), over-collection of living resources, introduced alien species, modification of coastal processes (coastal defences, siltation) and global change (climate, sea level). These impacts are put into the context of natural fluctuations in time and variability in space of both the environment and the organisms. The relative magnitudes of some anthropogenic disturbances differ between the industrialized, developed world and the developing world. For example, in developed, industrialized countries pollution based impacts should diminish over the next 25 years due to improved regulation and a reduction in older 'dirtier' heavy ind
! " # $ % & ' ( ) * + , - . / 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 : ; < = > ? @ A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z [ \ ] ^ _ ` a b c d e g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z { | } ~ ustry. Conversely, in many developing countries pollution will increase as a consequence of growth in the human < population and industrialization. Except for large-scale disasters such as oil spills, pollution tends mainly to influence embayed coastlines. Chronic effects such as eutrophication can have broader-scale impacts over whole coastlines and elevated nutrient levels have also been implicated in a trend of increasing frequency of catastrophic kills due to harmful algal. Direct removal of living resources has had major effects on coastlines at both local and regional scales and is likely to increase over the next 25 years, especially in developing countries where rapidly expanding human populations will put further pressure on resources. Impacts from recreational activities are likely to increase with greater leisure time in wealthier regions of the world, and cheaper travel will spread these impacts to poorer regions. Invasions by alien species have increased in frequency during the last 20 years leading to some dramatic effects on native assemblages. Problems associated with alien species, especially pathogens, will continue to increase over the next few decades. The proportion of the coastline modified by artificial structures (breakwaters, seawalls, groynes) will increase because of coastal development and defences against sea-level rise and the greater frequency of storms. This will increase connectivity between areas of rocky habitat. Siltation will continue to increase due to urbanization of catchments and estuaries, and changes in agricultural practice. This may have considerable impacts at local and regional scales, favouring sediment tolerant organisms such as turf algae and anemones. In the future, greater frequency of environmental extremes is likely, including large-scale events such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Global change in temperature, sea-level rise and increases in the frequency of storms will affect rocky shores throughout the world, but this will occur over long time scales; over the next 25 years most of the responses by rocky shore communities will mostly be quite subtle. Thus rocky shores will be subject to increasing degradation over the next 25 years. They are, however, less vulnerable than many other aquatic habitats due to their hard substratum (rock), their relative lack of large biogenic structures and to their generally open nature. They are also remarkably resilient. Their susceptibility to both terrestrial and marine disturbances does make them more vulnerable than sublittoral and offshore habitats. There are considerable gaps in knowledge, particularly of certain microhabitats such as crevices, boulders, sand-scoured areas and rock pools. These have been much less studied than more accessible assemblages on open, freely draining rock. More research is needed to establish the effects of increasing sediment loads, ultraviolet radiation and introduced species on rocky shore communities. Strategic and applied research programmes should integrate field experiments and carefully selected monitoring programmes to verify management regimes. Hindcasting from the palaeo-record would be valuable, to compare rates of predicted change with periods when change was rapid in the past. This information could, in principle, be used to help conserve rocky shores through networks of marine protected areas and a general reduction of environmental pollution. Economists, politicians, farmers, consumers and conservationists are all calling for drastic changes in agricultural policies. The current emphasis is on promoting agri-environment schemes, and recent work shows that, although some schemes can be beneficial, others generate negligible gains. An alternative is to combine carefully targeted agri-environment schemes with large-scale habitat restoration. Restoration provides the opportunity to deal with several problems simultaneously, such as sea-level rise, water-catchment protection and flood defence. Pioneering schemes are showing that such restoration is possible, and there is now the opportunity to carry such restoration out more widely. The existence of the Gulf of Mexico dead zone makes it clear that marine ecosystems can be damaged by terrestrial inputs. Marine and terrestrial conservation planning need to be aligned in an explicit fashion to fully represent threats to marine systems. To integrate conservation planning for terrestrial and marine systems, we used a novel threats assessment that included 5 cross-system threats in a site-prioritization exercise for the Pacific Northwest coast ecoregion (U.S.A.). Cross-system threats are actions or features in one ecological realm that have effects on species in another realm. We considered bulkheads and other forms of shoreline hardening threats to terrestrial systems and roads, logging, agriculture, and urban areas threats to marine systems. We used 2 proxies of freshwater influence on marine environments, validated against a mechanistic model and field observations, to propagate land-based threats into marine sites. We evaluated the influence of cross-system threats on conservation priorities by comparing MARXAN outputs for 3 scenarios that identified terrestrial and marine priorities simultaneously: (1) no threats, (2) single-system threats, and (3) single- and cross-system threats. Including cross-system threats changed the threat landscape dramatically. As a result the best plan that included only single-system threats identified 323 sites (161,500 ha) at risk from cross-system threats. Including these threats changed the location of best sites. By comparing the best and sum solutions of the single- and cross-system scenarios, we identified areas ideal for preservation or restoration through integrated management. Our findings lend quantitative support to the call for explicitly integrated decision making and management action in terrestrial and marine ecosystems.f This study presents the validation of a zero-dimensional time-stepping physically based model (MARSED) to simulate the varying rates of long-term (10-100 years) tidal marsh accumulation within an estuary. First, field data on long-term tidal marsh accumulation were collected for 25 marsh sites scattered along the Scheldt estuary (NW Europe), based on old topographic data and radiometric and paleoenvironmental dating of sediment cores. The field data showed that estuarine marshes accumulate at highly varying rates depending on (1) the age of the marsh, (2) estuarine variations in mean high water-level (MHWL) rise, and (3) variations in suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs). As a general mechanism, young low marsh surfaces accumulate quickly and asymptotically up to an equilibrium level around MHWL. After this, high old marshes accumulate much slower at rates that are comparable to local MHWL rise. Furthermore, marsh accumulation rates are higher in the inner part than in the outer part of the estuary. This difference can be attributed to the faster MHWL rise and higher SSC values in the inner estuary. Second, the MARSED model was validated against the field data. The model was able to simulate the observed variations in marsh accumulation rates with good accuracy. Furthermore, the model allows to quantify the combined effect of sea-level change and SSC on variations in accumulation rates: they showed that tidal marshes can maintain their equilibrium elevation around MHWL, only if incoming SSC is high enough. Finally, the model allows to predict marsh accumulation rates in response to changing environmental conditions. Simulations for the next 100 years suggest that the tidal marshes in the Scheldt estuary will be able to keep up with the rising MHWL, unless MHWL rise would increase and SSC would decrease importantly. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.) Germany's coast extends over 3700 km on both the North and Baltic Seas and is shared by five coastal states. Major seaport cities, Hamburg and Bremen, form two of these states, whereas rural areas and small and medium-size coastal towns comprise the other three coastal states. Along the coast large low-lying areas are already threatened by recurring storm flood events and erosion. Accelerated sea-level rise therefore exacerbates a high-risk situation. It i< s estimated that under a 1-m accelerated sea-level rise scenario the recurrence of devastating storm floods that presently have a probability of I in 100 will decrease to a 1 in 10 or even 1 in I probability. Vulnerability assessments have been carried out in Germany at three scales: (i) the national level, i.e., for all coastal areas lying below 5 m (Baltic Sea Coast) and 10 m (North Sea Coast), (ii) the regional level for the coastal state of Schleswig-Holstein, and (iii) the local level for selected communities within this state. When comparing findings from these analyses, the results show that the economic risks of flooding and erosion are highest when detailed studies covering the full range of infrastructure assets are used. However, the actual risk areas in detailed studies may be more confined when considering local topography and infrastructure such as road dams. Nationally, an accelerated sea-level rise of 1 m would put more than 300,000 people at risk in the coastal cities and communities, and economic values endangered by flooding and erosion would amount to more than 300 billion US$ (based on 1995 values). This is why German coastal states are following a strategy based on hard coastal protection measures against flooding, although authorities realize that maintaining and/or improving these defence structures might become rather costly in the long-term. Although additional investment in flood and erosion protection will be considerable (estimated at more than 500 million US$) this seems manageable for the national and regional economies. On the other hand, hard coastline defence and accelerated sea-level rise will increase "coastal squeeze" on the seaward side, endangering important coastal ecosystems such as tidal flats (Wadden Sea), saltmarshes, and dunes. Currently there is no strategy to remedy this increasing ecological vulnerability. The regional response of the global ocean to low-frequency changes in atmospheric pressure loading, eta(ib), is analyzed as it occurs in the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model in response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Results suggest that long-term changes in eta(ib) can lead to increases in high-latitude sea level by up to 5 and 10 cm, respectively, after doubling and quadrupling the atmospheric CO2 content. At low latitudes, sea level will decrease simultaneously between 2 and 4 cm through the combined effects of changes in the atmospheric circulation and through the increase of its moisture content. In subpolar regions, associated rates of sea level increase are of the order of 0.4-0.6 turn yr(-1) for quadrupled atmospheric CO2 concentrations, while in mid- and low latitudes, sea level will decrease at a rate of 0.2 mm yr(-1). Differences between doubling and quadrupling CO2 concentrations indicate regionally dependent nonlinearities in the changing climate system. The analysis suggests that in some regions (including the coasts of northern Europe) low-frequency eta(ib) changes could be as large as 10%-20% of a global sea level increase anticipated over the next 100 yr. While not being a dominant effect, amplitudes of long-period eta(ib) changes are large enough to be included in future estimates of climate-related regional sea level change. Increasing the vertically integrated atmospheric CO2 content by 4 and 12 kg m(-2) (on global average), in response to doubling and quadrupling atmospheric CO2 concentrations, suggests associated reductions of global sea level by 0.6 and 1.7 cm, respectively. The differences between two different model solutions are significant, especially in the Southern Ocean, where they show significantly different atmospheric mass and pressure distributions, and at low latitudes, where differences resemble the contribution of increased moisture content added to the inverted-barometer (IB) effect in the MPI-M solution. Coral islands formed of largely unconsolidated sands only a few metres above sea level are thought to be particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise consequent upon global warming. However, scenarios which predict catastrophic flooding and loss of island area need reassessment, particularly in the light of the continued downwards revision of projected rates of future sea-level rise. Revised questions concern the interactions between reef growth and sea-level change, biophysical constraints on coral growth, and the importance to reef systems of potential changes in the magnitude, frequency and location of tropical cyclones and hurricanes. It is clear that most reefs have the growth potential to meet even the highest of future sea-level rise scenarios, but too little is known about physiological and physical constraints to reef growth to adequately evaluate the importance of these two factors in constraining this potential at the present time. Future sea-level rise in the tropical oceans, and coral reef responses, will take place against a backdrop of inter-regional differences in Holocene sea levels, resulting from the varying interaction of eustatic and hydro-isostatic processes. These differences have generated varying constraints on the development of modern reefs and varying inherited topographies upon which future sea-level changes will be superimposed. These controls are particularly important in assessing differences in vulnerability to future sea-level rise for reef islands in the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean Sea. Managed realignment (MR) is a 'soft' engineering technique that involves the deliberate landwards retreat of the existing line of coastal defence and subsequent tidal inundation of land. Managed realignment has been established worldwide for over 30 years and its goals may include habitat restoration, recovery of biodiversity and sustainable coastal defence. In southeast England in particular, an increasing number of MR sites (20110 ha) have been commissioned in the last decade in response to increasing coastal habitat loss and sea-level rise. Following initial sea wall breaching and site flooding, monitoring of these sites is usually carried out for a period of 5 years and during this time changes in ecosystem structure can be easily observed. However, there is a poor understanding of the long-term effects of flooding on soil physicochemical parameters including sediment geochemistry and geochemical cycling, nutrient fluxes and soil maturation processes. Such physical and chemical changes may continue to take place over time-scales exceeding 5 years and therefore current monitoring practices may not be sufficient. This paper examines the changes in the physicochemical parameters of sediments in vertical core sections at the Orplands Farm MR site, Blackwater Estuary, Essex, 8 years after its flooding in 1995. Post-breach sediment accumulation rates at the site have been determined and a multi-proxy approach has been used to identify a pre-breach land surface. Soil development and the vertical distribution of saltmarsh plants following breaching have also been examined. The species saturation index approach has been used to provide an indication of the success of MR at this site. The pre-breach land surface was identified at 4-6 cm depth indicating a sediment accumulation rate ca. 0.75 cm a(-1) since the site was breached in 1995. This sedimentation rate exceeds the regional sea-level rise of 0.1-0.3 cm a(-1) and hence marsh development at the site is expected to continue in the short term. The examination of physicochemical parameters with depth indicates that the pre-breach land surface forms a barrier that may inhibit vertical tidal flushing, nutrient transfer and contaminant removal. The vegetation was mostly a pioneer and low-mid marsh assemblage typical of the area, although the species saturation index is low compared to other European sites and this may be attributed to a range of factors including poor drainage at the site and reduced seed availability. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. A methodology combining ecological modelling with geographical information analysis and remote sensing was employed to determine the effects of sea-level rise in estuarine salt marshes, < using the Tagus estuary (Portugal) as a case study. The development of salt marsh vegetation was simulated separately for C3 and C4 plants, using a combined biogeochemical and demographic model. This simulation, which provided small-scale (m(2)) results of annual above-ground primary production, was upscaled to the whole salt marsh area, using bathymetry data, remote sensing and Geographic information System (GIS) for assessing vegetation cover and determining areal distribution of C3 and C4 vegetation. Based on IPCC data, several sea-level rise scenarios were considered, and the coupled ecological model-GIS were applied to these in order to determine changes in global salt marsh productivity. The results indicate that the salt marshes of the mesotidal estuaries such as the Tagus are susceptible to sea-level rise only in a worst case scenario, which is more likely to occur if the terms set out by the Kyoto protocol are not met by several industrialised nations. The low vulnerability of salt marshes supports the suggestion that areas with high tidal ranges are less vulnerable to sea level change, due to greater sediment transport and accretion. Nevertheless, the precautionary principle should always be applied by coastal planners, due to the great uncertainty surrounding forecasts of sea-level rise. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. A preliminary estimate of the implications of climatic change on the Ebro delta coast (Spanish Mediterranean) is presented based on an understanding of how climate and other changes will influence the different driving factors that control the interacting formation and reduction processes acting on this low-lying coast. The formation processes are primarily of riverine origin and concern the supply of sediment and freshwater. The reduction processes considered are primarily of marine origin and include increases in inundation/flooding, decreases in storm return periods, coastal erosion, salinity intrusion, and changes in wave climate (wave height, direction, and storminess). For the most part, climatologically induced changes affecting deltaic behaviour, i.e., those of marine origin, are most important for the Ebro delta because those of riverine origin will be significantly damped by river regulation works. Hence, formation processes are suppressed whereas reduction processes will be unaffected by management policies, unless they are related to the coastal zone. Because of its morphology, relative sea-level rise (RSLR) will become the most important climate-induced potential hazard for the Ebro delta. When considering RSLR-induced inundation of deltaic areas below a given level (e.g., 0.5 m), although the deltaic surface below the projected level could be relatively large, impacts will be modulated by the "protection" offered by an active coastal zone that is able to react to the RSLR. Another direct result of sea-level rise will be a decrease in the return periods of maximum water levels, which due to the surge climate of the area will be very significant. Finally, the estimated shoreline retreat due to the RSLR was small when compared to present evolution rates. However, they must be also considered because they will act as an additional background erosion rate along the entire coast. Recent improvements in mapping of global population distribution makes it possible to estimate the number and distribution of people near coasts with greater accuracy than previously possible, and hence consider the potential exposure of these populations to coastal hazards. In this paper, we combine the updated Gridded Population of the World (GPW2) population distribution estimate for 1990 and lighted settlement imagery with a global digital elevation model (DEM) and a high resolution vector coastline. This produces bivariate distributions of population, lighted settlements and land area as functions of elevation and coastal proximity. The near-coastal population within 100 km of a shoreline and 100 m of sea level was estimated as 1.2 X 10(9) people with average densities nearly 3 times higher than the global average density. Within the near coastal-zone, the average population density diminishes more rapidly with elevation than with distance, while the opposite is true of lighted settlements. Lighted settlements are concentrated within 5 km of coastlines worldwide, whereas average population densities are higher at elevations below 20 m throughout the 100 km width of the near-coastal zone. Presently most of the near-coastal population live in relatively densely-populated rural areas and small to medium cities, rather than in large cities. A range of improvements are required to define a better baseline and scenarios for policy analysis. Improving the resolution of the underlying population data is a priority. Nordhaus (1991), Cline (1992), Fankhauser (1992), and Titus (1992) have published comprehensive estimates of annual climate change damages to the United States in about 2060 that vary from $55 billion to $111 billion ($1990). The estimates are comprehensive because they address market and nonmarket impacts. They based their estimates on different assumptions about the rates of climate change and sea level rise, rates of return on investment, and changes in population and income. In addition, many of the damage estimates, although reported for a 2.5-3.0 degrees C warming, were based on studies that assumed higher rates of warming. Thus, these studies may have overestimated damages associated with a 2.5-3.0 degrees C warming. In this paper, the results of these studies were standardized for a 2.5 degrees C warming, a 50-cm sea level rise, 1990 income and population, and a 4% real rate of return on investments, After standardization, the total damage estimates range from $42.3 billion to $52.8 billion, slightly less than 1% of United States GNP in 1990. Yet, within individual sectors, such as agriculture and electricity, standardized damages differ by more than an order of magnitude. In addition, a significant amount of speculation underlies the damage estimates. Thus, the small range of total standardized damages and apparent agreement about the magnitude of such damages should be interpreted with caution. Africa is one of the regions of the world potentially most vulnerable to climate change. Warming of the globe due to increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases appears to be inevitable. Therefore, it is imperative that policy makers in regions such as Africa begin to consider what measures they should take to adapt to the potential conseqences of climate change. A number of adaptation policies are suggested here. The policies address general adaptation measures as well as specific measures in water resources, coastal resources (adapting to sea-level rise), forests, ecosystems, and agriculture. These measures would enhance the flexibility of resources to adapt to climate change and would have net benefits greater than costs. In some cases, the measures make sense without considering climate change because they help address current climate variability. In other cases, the measures must be implemented in anticipation of climate change because they would be ineffective if implemented as a reaction to climate change./ The eastern part of the Mediterranean coast of Morocco is physically and socio-economically vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise, due to its low topography and its high ecological and touristic value. Assessment of the potential land loss by inundation has been based on empirical approaches using a minimum inundation level of 2 m and a maximum inundation level of 7 m, where scenarios for future sea-level rise range from 200 to 860 mm, with a 'best estimate' of 490 mm. The socio-economic impacts have been based on two possible alternative futures: (1) a 'worst-case' scenario, obtained by combining the 'economic development first' scenario with the maximum inundation level; and (2) a 'best-case' scenario, by combining the 'sustainability first' scenario with the minimum inundation level. Inundation analysis, based on Geographical Information Systems and a modelling approach to erosion, has identif< ied both locations and the socioeconomic sectors that are most at risk to accelerated sea-level rise. Results indicate that 24% and 59% of the area will be lost by flooding at minimum and maximum inundation levels, respectively. The most severely impacted sectors are expected to be the residential and recreational areas, agricultural land, and the natural ecosystem. Shoreline erosion will affect 50% and 70% of the total area in 2050 and 2100, respectively. Potential strategies to ameliorate the impact of seawater inundation include: wetland preservation; beach nourishment at tourist resorts; and the afforestation of dunes. As this coast is planned to become one of the most developed tourist resorts in Morocco by 2010, measures such as building regulation, urban growth planning and development of an Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plan, are recommended for the region. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.N This paper examines planning and legal responses which may be appropriate to address sea-level problems in South Africa. It draws on the responses obtained from an interview survey conducted amongst key planning and decision-making authorities involved in coastal zone management in the south-western Cape. The results of this survey indicate that, while planning and decision-making authorities are aware of sea-level rise issues, they are not yet adequately prepared to deal with the impacts and implications that will result. A review of the legal mechanisms that would be appropriate to address sea-level rise issues reveals that a wide range of legislative enactments already exist which could be harnessed to address the problem. Recommendations regarding actions which could be taken immediately to address sea-level rise issues are made. Mangrove forests are found within the intertropical zone and are one of the most biodiverse and productive wetlands on Earth. We focus oil the Cienaga Grande de Santa Marta (CGSM) in Colombia, the largest coastal lagoon-delta ecosystem in the Caribbean area with an extension of 1280 kin 2, where one of the largest mangrove rehabilitation projects in Latin America is currently underway. Extensive man-made hydrological modifications in the region caused hypersaline soil (>90 g kg(-1)) conditions since the 1960s triggering a large dieback of mangrove wetlands (similar to 247 km(2)). In this paper, we describe a new systematic methodology to measure mangrove height and aboveground biomass by remote sensing. The method is based on SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) elevation data, ICEsat/GLAS waveforms (Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite/Geoscience Laser Altimeter System) and field data. Since the locations of the ICEsat and field datasets do not coincide, they are used independently to calibrate SRTM elevation and produce a map of mangrove canopy height. We compared height estimation methods based on waveform centroids and the canopy height profile (CHP). Linear relationships between ICEsat height estimates and SRTM elevation were derived. We found the centroid of the canopy waveform contribution (CWC) to be the best height estimator. The field data was used to estimate a SRTM canopy height bias (-1.3 m) and estimation error (rms = 1.9 m). The relationship was applied to the SRTM elevation data to produce a mangrove canopy height map. Finally, we used field data and published allometric equations to derive an empirical relationship between canopy height and biomass. This relationship was used to scale the mangrove height map and estimate aboveground biomass distribution for the entire CGSM. The mean mangrove canopy height in CGSM is 7.7 m and most of the biomass is concentrated in forests around 9 m in height. Our biomass maps will enable estimation of regeneration rates of mangrove forests under hydrological rehabilitation at large spatial scales over the next decades. They will also be used to assess how highly disturbed mangrove forests respond to increasing sea level rise under current global climate change scenarios. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
The increasing rate of global climate change seen in this century, and predicted to accelerate into the next, will significantly impact the Earth's oceans. In this review, we examine previously published seagrass research through a lens of global climate change in order to consider the potential effects on the world's seagrasses. A primary effect of increased global temperature on seagrasses will be the alteration of growth rates and other physiological functions of the plants themselves. The distribution of seagrasses will shift as a result of increased temperature stress and changes in the patterns of sexual reproduction. Indirect temperature effects may include plant community changes as a result of increased eutrophication and changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. The direct effects of sea level rise on the coastal oceans will be to increase water depths, change tidal variation (both mean tide level and tidal prism), alter water movement, and increase seawater intrusion into estuaries and rivers. A major impact of all these changes on seagrasses and tidal freshwater plants will be a redistribution of existing habitats. The intrusion of ocean water into formerly fresh or brackish water areas will directly affect estuarine plans distribution by changing conditions at specific locations, causing some plants to relocate in order to stay within their tolerance zones and allowing others to expand their distribution inland. Distribution changes will result from the effects of salinity change on seed germination, propagule formation, photosynthesis, growth and biomass, Also, some plant communities may decline or be eliminated as a result of increased disease activity under more highly saline conditions. Increased water depth, which reduces the amount of light reaching existing seagrass beds, will directly reduce plant productivity where plants are light limited. Likewise, increases in water motion and tidal circulation will decrease the amount of light reaching the plants by increasing turbidity or by stimulating the growth of epiphytes. Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide will directly elevate the amount of CO2 in coastal waters. In areas where seagrasses are carbon limited, this may increase primary production, although whether this increase will be sustained with long-term CO2 enrichment is uncertain. The impact of increases in CO2 will vary with species and environmental circumstances, but will likely include species distribution by altering the competition between seagrass species as well as between seagrass and algal populations. The reaction of seagrasses to UV-B radiation may range from inhibition of photosynthetic activity, as seen fur terrestrial plants and marine algae. to the increased metabolic cost of producing UV-B blocking compounds within plant tissue. The effects of UV-B radiation will likely be greatest in the tropics and in southern oceans. Then is every reason to believe that, as with the predicted terrestrial effects of global climate change, impacts to seagrasses will be great. The changes that will occur in seagrass communities an difficult to predict; our assessment clearly points out the need for research directed toward the impact of global climate change on seagrasses. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. Multiple factors have caused rapid changes in coastal landscapes in the last half century. Coastal natural areas have been set aside to mitigate some of these changes for habitat preservation, among other goals. However, areas set aside for conservation are not exempt from these rapid changes. A major concern for coastal wetlands is the potential for habitat loss resulting from external land-use changes and sea-level rise, which essentially threaten these natural areas from all sides. In order to quantify these trends, we determined the types and rates of land-use/land-cover conversion in differing coastal sites in the U.S. along the northern Gulf of Mexico from the 1950s to the 1990s using existing National Wetlands Inventory (NWI) habitat data and Geographic Information Systems (G< IS). All sites were located in protected areas and contained an intact marsh-to-forest transition. A buffer zone of similar to 2000 m around each site was also analyzed. Two sites, Mandalay National Wildlife Refuge (MNWR) and the Barataria Preserve Unit of the Jean Lafitte National Historical Park and Preserve (JLNHPP), were located on the Mississippi Deltaic Plain in Louisiana, while the other sites, Grand Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve (GBNERR) and Weeks Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve (WBNERR), were located on the Gulf Coastal Plain in Mississippi and Alabama, respectively. Results showed prevalent marsh loss across all sites in the study, although the rate and type of marsh conversion to other land-cover types varied between the Mississippi Delta sites and the Coastal Plain. In the Delta, marsh was converted to open water along shorelines and in internal patches, but the majority of marsh loss was attributed to scrub-shrub encroachment. In the Coastal Plain, marsh was lost more slowly overall, both along the shoreline and forest-marsh boundary. The main trend in the Coastal Plain was replacement of agricultural areas by forest. The buffers experienced an increase in anthropogenically-modified categories, except for a decrease in agricultural areas. Our study suggests that coastal transitions of the northern Gulf of Mexico have indeed experienced landward and seaward losses and that marsh areas are especially vulnerable. It appears that marshes are not keeping pace with the spatial shifts in the aquatic to terrestrial transition as sea level rises, although results in the Coastal Plain are less conclusive because major land-use changes dominate the trends.d Observations of relative sea-level (RSL) change in Great Britain since 16 kyr BP and models of post-glacial isostatic adjustment provide constraints on reconstructions of the British and Antarctic ice sheets from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present. We use the global model from an earlier investigation, modified ICE-4G (VM2) with lithospheric thickness= 90 km, which gives good RSL fits globally as well as for much of the British data. A revised ice model for Great Britain that fits with recently published observations on ice limits and heights fails to explain all the misfits between RSL observations and predictions. Much more significant improvements result from models that incorporate a different chronology for the partial deglaciation of Antarctica, while keeping the total ice melt, similar to 17 in, the same as in ICE-4G (VM2). The results suggest Antarctic melting of similar to 3 m ice equivalent sea level by 15 kyr BP, only similar to 1 m contribution to the similar to 24 in rise of MWP I a, with the major melting 12-5 kyr BP, and a small amount of melting, 1.0 +/- 0.3 m, between then and 3 or 2 kyr BP. These modifications produce RSL predictions for Barbados that show the major changes in rate of sea level rise, but with an offset up to 1 kyr compared to the observations. Possible explanations that remain to be investigated further are a delay in the melting of ice from some other region, a reduction in the total melt derived from Antarctica, and a refinement of the 1 kyr temporal resolution assumed in the construction of the theoretical solution. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
The patterns of mangrove distribution in tropical northwestern Australia are related to coastal dynamics, habitats and salinity. They also respond to the sedimentology of the tidal Data that back them, to coastal (sheet) erosion, and to the effects of some industrial impacts. These patterns provide information useful in predicting the variable effects of sea-level rise on mangroves. For instance, fundamental changes to soil regimes and salinity can be expected as tidal Bat surfaces and groundwaters sedimentologically and hydrologically adjust to new levels of wave base and frequency of inundation as sea-level rises. Since mangrove assemblages and their zones are closely related to shore profile, soils, habitat statigraphy and salinity fields, any change in these can lead to alteration of the structure and composition of mangrove systems. The mangrove response to a rising sea level will depend on the environmental setting of the mangrove system This includes the relative geomorphic and sedimentologic homogeneity of the ccaat, its tidal range, its stability, and the history of Holocene sea levels in regard to development of coastal gradients and the climatic Betting which determines the variety of species that will respond to this Holocene sealevel rise and the type of reproduction the mangroves will utilise to keep pace with encroaching seas. A dichotomous key is presented which suggests that the response of mangrove coasts to a rising sea level will be suite varied from coastal sector to sector and even from site to site within a single coastal sector and climate setting. Some case studies illustrate the probable effect of rising sea level on mangrove systems in Western Australia The macrotidal shores of King Sound, a relatively simple coast in terms of habitat and stratigraphy, is eroding naturally by creek and cliff erosion and by sheet erosion progressing at 1-3 cm/yr. This erosion specifically simulates the effects of a rising sea. With coastal retreat, the mangroves are migrating landwards, generally keeping pace with the retreat. Mangroves colonise by seedling recruitment on the new substrates that become available through the processes at erosion, inundation, and dilution of hypersaline groundwater of the salt Bats. As erosion and progressive dilution of hypersalinity proceeds, each zone within the mangrove belt displaces the adjoining one. Thus, sccl level rise in a system like King Sound would most likely result in the migration of mangroves, with similar composition and structure, into habitats made available by increased inundation In arid zones, however, where mangrove population is maintained by vegetative reproduction, sheet erosion of tidal Bats also causes landward migration of zones, but the individual zones keeps pars with a relative rising sea level by vegetative processes. Elsewhere in NV Australia, various mangroves assemblages with different composition, structure and population maintenance have developed slang highly indented (ria) shores, in a heterogeneous suite of habitats that have evolved over the late Holocene. These habitats are defined by their geomorphic setting, sedimentologic processes, stratigraphic evolution, and ground water dynamics, and each is related to a specific height in relationship to sea level. A sea-level rise would inundate the various geomorphic/habitat systems, dislocating their suite in relation to the formative sea level. It is likely that these mangroves would not adjust as rapidly as the more homogeneous systems, and hence be disrupted. Protected areas arc the most common and most important strategy for biodiversity conservation and are called for under the United Nations' Convention on Biological Diversity. However, most protected areas have been designed to represent (and in theory protect for perpetuity) specific natural features, species and ecological communities in-situ, and have not taken into account potential shifts in ecosystem distribution and composition that could be induced by global climatic change. This paper provides an overview of the policy and planning implications of climate change for protected areas in Canada, summarizes a portfolio of climate change adaptation options that have been discussed in the conservation literature and by conservation professionals and provides a perspective on what is needed for the conservation community in Canada to move forward on responding to the threat posed by climate change. Examples from the depositional sand coasts of the White Sea and the Sea of Japan provide valuable information regarding the importance of sediment budget and the direction and rates of sea-level change for patterns of coastal evolution. These examples demonstrate a limited applicability of the Bruun Rule and its modifications to the prediction of shoreline movement under the sea-level change. A mode< rate underwater coastal slope and an excessive or insufficient sediment supply may result in the prevalence of deposition during sea-level rise and erosion during its fall. In general, the faster sea-level rise, the higher the possibility of burial, drowning, or destruction of the coastal depositional body. The faster the sea-level fall, the more probable the preservation of depositional bodies above the retreating sea, e.g., in the form of beach ridges and coastal dunes. As a first approximation, a model of coastal development under accelerating sea-level rise is established for the conditions of excessive and insufficient sediment supply on sand coasts. Under the former, a moderate acceleration of sea-level rise causes the change from mobilization of sediments at a beach face and formation of a beach ridge to the landward translation of the coastal depositional body and, then, to its transformation. An extreme acceleration causes burial of the coastal depositional body by a transgressive sedimentary sequence. Under the latter, mobilization of existing scarce sediments results in a landward movement of a depositional body, erosion of its seaward slope, drowning, and partial destruction. The extreme acceleration may bring, in some cases, the total grading of the coastal zone profile.- The role of adaptation in impact assessment and integrated assessment of climate policy is briefly reviewed. Agriculture in the US is taken as exemplary of this issue. Historic studies in which no adaptation is assumed (so-called "dumb farmer") versus farmer-agents blessed with perfect foresight (so-called "clairvoyant farmer") are contrasted, and considered limiting cases as compared to "realistic farmers." What kinds of decision rules such realistic farmer-agents would adopt to deal with climate change involves a range of issues. These include degrees of belief the climate is actually changing, knowledge about how it will change, foresight on how technology is changing, estimation of what will happen in competitive granaries and assumptions about what governmental policies will be in various regions and over time. Clearly, a transparent specification of such agent-based decision rules is essential to model adaptation explicitly in any impact assessment. Moreover, open recognition of the limited set of assumptions contained in any one study of adaptation demands that authors clearly note that each individual study can represent only a fraction of plausible outcomes. A set of calculations using the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) crop model is offered here as an example of explicit decision rules on adaptive behavior on climate impacts. The model is driven by a 2xCO(2) regional climate model scenario (from which a "mock" transient scenario was devised) to calculate yield changes for farmer-agents that practice no adaptation, perfect adaptation and 20-year-lagged adaptation, the latter designed to mimic the masking effects of natural variability on farmers' capacity to see how climate is changing. The results reinforce the expectation that the likely effects of natural variability, which would mask a farmer's capacity to detect climate change, is to place the calculated impacts of climate changes in two regions of the US in between that of perfect and no adaptation. Finally, the use of so-called "hedonic" methods (in which land prices in different regions with different current average climates are used to derive implicitly farmers' adaptive responses to hypothesized future climate changes) is briefly reviewed. It is noted that this procedure in which space and time are substituted, amounts to "ergodic economics." Such cross-sectional analyses are static, and thus neglect the dynamics of both climate and societal evolution. Furthermore, such static methods usually consider only a single measure of change (local mean annual temperature), rather than higher moments like climatic variability, diurnal temperature range, etc. These implicit assumptions in ergodic economics make use of such cross-sectional studies limited for applications to integrated assessments of the actual dynamics of adaptive capacity. While all such methods are appropriate for sensitivity analyses and help to define a plausible range of outcomes, none is by itself likely to define the range of plausible adaptive capacities that might emerge in response to climate change scenarios. Adaptation is an important approach for protecting human health, ecosystems, and economic systems from the risks posed by climate variability and change, and for exploiting beneficial opportunities provided by a changing climate. This paper presents 9 fundamental principles that should be considered when designing adaptation policy, for example, a sound understanding of the potential regional effects of climate on human and ecological systems is required to target appropriate investments in adaptive responses. The distribution of potential impacts across different populations and the mechanisms by which these impacts occur are also key to effective adaptation measures. Options for coping with climatic changes must be considered in the context of multiple stressors. Further, adaptation is likely to exhibit varying levels of effectiveness as demonstrated by current efforts to deal with climate variability. Potential adverse side effects of adaptive strategies must also be accounted for to avoid solutions that are worse than the problem. These issues and others are presented in this paper, with examples from various impacts studies to illustrate key points.f Escalating pressures caused by the combined effects of population growth, demographic shifts, economic development and global climate change pose unprecedented threats to sandy beach ecosystems worldwide. Conservation of beaches as functional ecosystems and protection of their unique biodiversity requires management interventions that not only mitigate threats to physical properties of sandy shores, but also include ecological dimensions. Yet, beach management remains overwhelmingly focused on engineering interventions. Here we summarise the key outcomes of several workshops, held during the 2006 Sandy Beach Ecology Symposium in Vigo, Spain, that addressed issues of climate change, beach management and sampling methodology. Because efficient communication between managers and ecologists is critical, we summarise the salient features of sandy beaches as functional ecosystems in 50 'key statements'; these provide a succinct synopsis of the main structural and functional characteristics of these highly dynamic systems. Key outcomes of the workshops include a set of recommendations on designs and methods for sampling the benthic infaunal communities of beaches, the identification of the main ecological effects caused by direct and indirect human interventions, the predicted consequence of climate change for beach ecosystems, and priority areas for future research.. Based on a spatial model, the Martinique beaches and coastal wetlands are examined to identify the risks of coastal squeeze. In many cases coastal development prevents coasts from adapting to increased erosion rates by shifting landward. Also tourism infrastructure augments the vulnerability of beach reduction and mangrove squeeze. The majority of coastal constructions and especially tourist hotels are built within the zone at risk to flooding and erosion. Spatial analysis based on a conducted GIS model is carried out that evaluates the tourist destinations most vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise. If sea level rises and beach reduction becomes an increasing problem the attractiveness of Martinique beaches as a tourist destination is likely to decline. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.< Increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases projected for the 21st century are expected to lead to increased mean global air and ocean temperatures. The National Assessment of PotentiaI Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (NAST 2001) was based on a series of regional and sector assessments. This paper is a summary of the coastal and marine resources sector review of potential impacts on shorelines, e< stuaries, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and ocean margin ecosystems. The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation patterns; changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO2. Increasing rates of sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of coastal storms and hurricanes over the next decades will increase threats to shorelines, wetlands, and coastal development. Estuarine productivity will change in response to alteration in the timing and amount of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment delivery. Higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater delivery will alter estuarine stratification, residence time, and eutrophication. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to increase coral bleaching and higher CO2 levels may reduce coral calcification, making it more difficult for corals to recover from other disturbances, and inhibiting poleward shifts. Ocean warming is expected to cause poleward shifts in the ranges of many other organisms, including commercial species, and these shifts may have secondary effects on their predators and prey. Although these potential impacts of climate change and variability will vary from system to system, it is important to recognize that they will be superimposed upon, and in many cases intensify, other ecosystem stresses (pollution, harvesting, habitat destruction, invasive species, land and resource use, extreme natural events), which may lead to more significant consequences. Where, since the 1980s, patchy and variable green algal mats are prevailing, distinct belts of an amphipod (Corophium volutator) and seagrass (Zostera spp.) had dominated in the 1930s. The zonation between tide marks has been mapped in a sheltered sedimentary bay in the Wadden Sea near the island of Sylt (coastal eastern North Sea). Maps on vegetation from 1924 and on selected macrobenthos from 1932 and 1934 are compared with biannual surveys conducted from 1988 to 2006. Rising high water levels and eutrophication are suggested to be major causes of the observed long-term changes. In front of a saltmarsh, a sandy beach developed and partly displaced former cyanobacterial mats. Advancing sandiness may have inhibited C. volutator and facilitated lugworms, Arenicola marina, in the upper tidal zone. A variable occurrence of green algal mats arising in the 1980s affected infauna and seagrass by smothering the biota underneath. This dissolved a coherent belt of Zostera noltii. In the lower tidal zone, natural disturbances had lasting effects on the occurrence of mussels with attached fucoid algae. The spectrum of species became enriched by alien species (13% of macrobenthic taxa). A reversal to habitat structure and biotic zonation of the 1920-1930s does not seem possible. Aliens, in combination with climate change, are expected to further divert the ecological pattern to new configurations. Contemporary climate change is characterized both by increasing mean temperature and increasing climate variability such as heat waves, storms, and floods. How populations and communities cope with such climatic extremes is a question central to contemporary ecology and biodiversity conservation. Previous work has shown that species diversity can affect ecosystem functioning and resilience. Here, we show that genotypic diversity can replace the role of species diversity in a species-poor coastal ecosystem, and it may buffer against extreme climatic events. In a manipulative field experiment, increasing the genotypic diversity of the cosmopolitan seagrass Zostera marina enhanced biomass production, plant density, and faunal abundance, despite near-lethal water temperatures due to extreme warming across Europe. Net biodiversity effects were explained by genotypic complementarity rather than by selection of particularly robust genotypes. Positive effects on invertebrate fauna suggest that genetic diversity has second-order effects reaching higher trophic levels. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining genetic as well as species diversity to enhance ecosystem resilience in a world of increasing uncertainty. This paper considers the needed adaptation and mitigation agenda for cities in India - where the urban population is likely to grow by around 500 million over the next 50 years. It considers the likely changes that climate change will bring in temperature, precipitation and extreme rainfall, drought, river and inland flooding, storms/storm surges/coastal flooding, sea-level rise and environmental health risks, and who within urban populations are most at risk. It notes the importance for urban areas of an effective rural adaptation agenda especially in maintaining the productivity and functioning of rural systems. It highlights the importance of today's infrastructure investments, taking into account climate changes, given the long lifespan of most infrastructure, and the importance of urban management engaging with changing risk profiles. One important part of this is the need to connect official adaptation initiatives to the much-improved natural hazard risk assessment, management and mitigation capacity that responded to major disasters. The paper ends by describing a possible urban climate change adaptation framework, including changes needed at the national, state, city and neighbourhood levels, and linkages to mitigation.B The complex and multidimensional nature of coastal erosion risks makes it necessary to move away from single-perspective assessment and management methods that have conventionally predominated in coastal management. This article explores the suitability of participatory multicriteria analysis (MCA) for improving the integration of diverse expertises and values and enhancing the social-ecological robustness of the processes that lead to the definition of relevant policy options to deal with those risks. We test this approach in the Mediterranean coastal locality of Lido de Sete in France. Results show that the more adaptive alternatives such as "retreating the shoreline" were preferred by our selected stakeholders to those corresponding to "protecting the shoreline" and the business as usual proposals traditionally put forward by experts and policymakers on these matters. Participative MCA contributed to represent coastal multidimensionality, elicit and integrate different views and preferences, facilitated knowledge exchange, and allowed highlighting existing uncertainties.] Hydrographic time-series data recorded during the past 42 years in the upper 500 meters off the coast of southern California indicate that temperatures have increased by 0.8-degrees-C uniformly in the upper 1 00 meters and that temperatures have risen significantly to depths of about 300 meters. The effect of warming the surface layer of the ocean and thereby expanding the water column has been to raise sea level by 0.9 +/- 0.2 millimeter per year. Tide gauge records along the coast are coherent with steric height and show upward trends in sea level that vary from about 1 to 3 millimeters per year. Global climate change is impacting and will continue to impact marine and estuarine fish and fisheries. Data trends show global climate change effects ranging from increased oxygen consumption rates in fishes, to changes in foraging and migrational patterns in polar seas, to fish community changes in bleached tropical coral reefs. Projections of future conditions portend further impacts on the distribution and abundance of fishes associated with relatively small temperature changes. Changing fish distributions and abundances will undoubtedly affect communities of humans who harvest these stocks. Coastal-based harvesters ( subsistence, commercial, recreational) may be impacted ( negatively or positively) by changes in fish stocks due to climate change. Furthermore, marine protected area boundaries, low-lying island countries dependent on coastal economies, and disease incidence ( in aquatic organisms and humans) are al< so affected by a relatively small increase in temperature and sea level. Our interpretations of evidence include many uncertainties about the future of affected fish species and their harvesters. Therefore, there is a need to research the physiology and ecology of marine and estuarine fishes, particularly in the tropics where comparatively little research has been conducted. As a broader and deeper information base accumulates, researchers will be able to make more accurate predictions and forge relevant solutions. This paper discusses the current status of forested, wetland, freshwater and coastal ecosystems; the combined impacts of habitat alteration, pollution and non-native invasive species on those systems; how climatic changes could interact with existing stresses; potential management strategies, and crucial research gaps. Changes in climate and climate variability would significantly affect natural ecosystems, and may pose additional threats to the already-stressed ecosystems of the Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR). Fragmentation of the MAR's forests may hinder the migration of some species. Urban development and wetland losses leave the MAR's rivers and streams and near-shore areas vulnerable to damages if the frequency and intensity of storms increase. Inputs of sediments, nutrients and toxic chemicals to streams, lakes and estuaries might increase if precipitation increases. Accelerated sea-level rise could accelerate the loss of coastal wetlands. Estuaries are sensitive to changes in temperature, salinity and nutrient loads, and could be adversely affected by projected climatic changes. Populations of rare, native species could decline, while problems with non-native invasive species, such as kudzu and gypsy moths, might increase. The best strategies to protect ecosystems from climatic changes may be those that reduce other stresses, thus increasing resilience to a variety of stresses. Societal priorities for ecosystem protection need to be articulated, and research is needed into the values of ecosystems, ecosystem functioning, human impacts, long-term ecological monitoring, and management options to provide a basis for selecting effective measures.) Mangrove surface elevation was measured by means of the Surface Elevation Table and Marker Horizon technique (SET-MH) in a range of settings in southeastern Australia. Despite sustained vertical accretion, surface elevation declined at most sites with the onset of an El Nino drought in 2001-2002. At these sites, the Southern Oscillation Index accounted for 70-85% of variability in surface elevation over a 3-year period. At deltaic island sites, this trend was not evident, an observation we attribute to lower terrestrial groundwater inputs. At one site (Homebush Bay), a high correlation was found between surface elevation and groundwater depth, monitored approximately every 2 weeks for 4 months. At the same site, the diurnal astronomical tide was also found to significantly affect mangrove surface elevation, although not to the extent of the El Nino drought. Models of the response of mangroves to sea-level rise on the basis of contemporary processes should account for short-term perturbations, such as climate variability at regional and local scales. The last interglacial period, Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e, was characterized by global mean surface temperatures that were at least 2 degrees C warmer than present(1). Mean sea level stood 4-6m higher than modern sea level(2-13), with an important contribution from a reduction of the Greenland ice sheet(1,14). Although some fossil reef data indicate sea-level fluctuations of up to 10m around the mean(3-9,11), so far it has not been possible to constrain the duration and rates of change of these shorter-term variations. Here, we use a combination of a continuous high-resolution sea-level record, based on the stable oxygen isotopes of planktonic foraminifera from the central Red Sea(15-18), and age constraints from coral data to estimate rates of sea-level change during MIS-5e. We find average rates of sea-level rise of 1.6m per century. As global mean temperatures during MIS-5e were comparable to projections for future climate change under the influence of anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions(19,20), these observed rates of sea-level change inform the ongoing debate about high versus low rates of sea-level rise in the coming century(21,22).. Geographic signatures are physical, chemical, biotic, and human-induced characteristics or processes that help define similar or unique features of estuaries along latitudinal or geographic gradients. Geomorphologically, estuaries of the northeastern U.S., from the Hudson River estuary and northward along the Gulf of Maine shoreline, are highly diverse because of a complex bedrock geology and glacial history. Back-barrier estuaries and lagoons occur within the northeast region, but the domiant type is the drowned-river valley, often with rocky shores. Tidal range and mean depth of northeast estuaries are generally greater when compared to estuaries of the more southern U.S. Atlantic coast and Gulf of Mexico. Because of small estuarine drainage basins, low riverine hows, a bedrock substrate, and dense forest cover, sediment loads in northeast estuaries are generally quite low and water clarity is high. Tidal marshes, seagrass meadows, intertidal mudflats, and rocky shores represent major habitat types that fringe northeast estuaries, supporting commercially-important fauna, forage nekton and benthos, and coastal bird communities, while also serving as links between deeper estuarine waters and habitats through detritus-based pathways. Regarding land use and water quality trends, portions of the northeast have a history of over a century of intense urbanization as reflected in increased total nitrogen and total phosphorus loadings to estuaries, with wastewater treatment facilities and atmospheric deposition being major sources. Agricultural inputs are relatively minor throughout the northeast with relative importance increasing for coastal plain estuaries. Identifying geographic signatures provides an objective means for comparing the structure, function, and processes of estuaries along latitudinal gradients. Managed realignment has aroused increasing interest over the past decade, reflecting a growing awareness of the high cost of holding the line, the widespread trend of coastal squeeze, and the potentially adverse effects of accelerated vel rise. This comparative study of England's and Germany's approaches to managed realignment sought to explore similarities and differences and hence provide insights on its future use. Although consideration of managed realignment is widely perceived as a positive development, important and sometimes surprising differences were found concerning its application. This reflects various factors ranging from the physical landscape and the state of coastal defences to cultural factors. Existing schemes are mostly concentrated on the coasts of eastern England and the German federal states of Lower Saxony and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Managed realignment in England, and to some extent on Germany's Baltic Sea coast, seems driven by longer term factors, such as the desire to create more sustainable flood defences and to provide new intertidal habitats, although these are often combined with the more immediate need to upgrade defences. On Germany's well-defended North Sea coast, managed realignment has only been undertaken for specific compensation reasons, although broader conservation concerns might become an important future driver for managed realignment in summer polders. Thus managed realignment is now firmly on the agenda in both countries, reflecting a radical departure from the recent past, in which protection was the only possible response. However, application is likely to differ significantly both between and within these countries.e Sea level elevations from near the mouth of San Francisco Bay are used to describe the low-frequency variability of forcing of the coastal ocean on the Bay at a variety of temporal scales. About 90% of subtidal fluctuations in sea level in San Franci< sco Bay are driven by the sea level variations in the coastal ocean that propagate into the Bay at the estuary mouth. We use the 100-year sea level record available at San Francisco to document a 1.9 mm/yr mean sea level rise, and to determine fluctuations related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other climatic events. At time scales greater than 1 year, ENSO dominates the sea level signal and can result in fluctuations in sea level of 10-15 cm. Alongshore wind stress data from central California are also analyzed to determine the impact of changes in coastal elevation at the mouth of San Francisco Bay within the synoptic wind band of 2-30 days. At least 40% of the subtidal fluctuations in sea level of the Bay are tied to the large-scale regional wind field affecting sea level variations in the coastal ocean, with little local, direct wind forcing of the Bay itself. The majority of the subtidal sea level fluctuations within the Bay that are not related to the coastal ocean sea level signal are forced by an eastwest sea level gradient resulting from tidally induced variations in sea level at specific beat frequencies that are enhanced in the northern reach of the Bay. River discharge into the Bay through the Sacramento and San Joaquin River Delta also contributes to the east-west gradient, but to a lesser degree. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Three climatic changes scenariis were investigated by an increase of energy and by the duration of an extreme storm. The wave caracteristics properties and the sea level time series of the referenced storm were increased of about 5, 10 and 20% in order to define the dune erosion. We evidenced that the wave height displays more influence on the dune erosion than the sea level. Moreover the storm duration, over 4 days, does not play an important role on the dune erosion. However there is no proportional relationships between a weak storm energy increase and/or duration, and dune erosion. A small increase of storm will have a large impact on dune erosion in the future.4 In this study, sea-level rise scenarios derived from a potential climate change were considered and the physical impacts on the coast of Montevideo, Uruguay, under each scenario were determined. The Bruun Rule was used to calculate coastal erosion. The impacts under a 'no action' response were first assessed. Land and coastal construction loss as well as the effects on infrastructure, such as the sewer system and the port, were evaluated. Inundation along the streams which discharge at the coast was qualitatively assessed. The associated costs were estimated. In addition, possible active responses were identified and their costs were estimated. Costs and benefits of each response option, including the 'no action' option, are discussed in the paper, concluding on the need for planning of anticipatory measures. An accumulation rate in a well-developed mangrove forest has been associated with relative sea-level rise on an island off the coast of Rio de Janeiro State. This rate was calculated by Pb-210 dating models from a single sediment core. Results indicate an accumulation rate of approximately 1.7 mm/y for the past approximately 100 years. This rate is almost identical to the ongoing eustatic mean rise in global sea level, indicating a tectonically stable mangrove habitat. Organic C (OC), total N, delta C-13((OC)), and delta N-15 values from selected core intervals suggest a constant source of accumulating vegetal debris, dominated by C3-type vegetation with insignificant input of marine-derived organic matter, and a stable subaerial mangal habitat.P Over the last decades, the Polish coast, about 500 km long and predominantly featured by sandy, low-lying beaches, has been exposed to various threats resulting from intensified climate change and Accelerated Sea-Level Rise (ASLR). This has manifested itself in the growing intensity of shoreline, dune and cliff erosion and by the increasing. necessity of their protection. The current study is both a summary and an extension of the existing Polish studies and analyses on the present and predicted influence of ASLR on the coast. First, the Polish coast was divided into three basic area types (AREA I, II, III) according to their geographic and socio-economic background. Then, two different scenarios of accelerated sea-level rise (ASLR1 - 30 cm/100 yrs and ASLR2 - 100 cm/100 yrs) were assumed. After that threats of land loss and the risk of its temporary or partial inundation was analyzed in connection with the assessment of the material and social costs and losses. These analyses were made within the framework of two adaptation scenarios, i.e. retreat (do nothing) and full protection. The performed analyses have shown that the greatest threat of partial or full land loss and the associated material and social costs are expected to occur in two regions of the Polish coast. One of them is situated in the eastern sector of the Polish coast and covers the agglomeration of Gdansk and the Zulawy polders. The other is located in the west and comprises low-lying areas around the Szczecin Lagoon and the vicinity of the Odra river mouth. These areas both require intensive care and protection efforts. Poland's approximate 500-km coastline predominantly comprises sandy, low-lying beaches and populated coastal low lands. They are exposed to a range of threats from recently observed intensified climate changes and anticipated accelerated sea-level rise. Sediment starvation is already indicated by the growing necessity for dune and cliff protection that has been exacerbated by sea-level rise. The current study is both a summary and extension of existing Polish studies, and analyses current and predicted influences of accelerated sea-level rise on the coast. First, the Polish coast was divided into three areas according to coastal and socioeconomic characteristics. Then, considering two scenarios of accelerated sea-level rise [(i) 30 cm/100 y and (ii) 100 cm/100 y], an analysis of the threats of land loss and flood risk was carried out, and economic and social costs and losses assessed. This analysis included two adaptation scenarios: retreat (do nothing) and full protection. These analyses show that the greatest impacts of accelerated sea-level rise would occur in the far-eastern and western regions of the Polish coast with lesser impacts along the central region. Threatened areas include the conurbation of Gdansk, the Zulawy polders, and the low-lying areas around the Szczecin Lagoon and the Odra river mouth. Because both the Szczecin Lagoon region and the Vistula River delta are of key importance for the Polish economy and are densely populated, a carefully planned response is required to manage these threats.g Popular concern about increased risks of coastal flooding in a future warmer world has led to extensive scientific investigation, new monitoring programmes and assessments of local vulnerability. Tide gauge measurements show an increase of around 20 cm over the past one hundred years and plausible scenarios suggest further increases of 50 cm by 2100. The risks of coastal flooding will be significantly increasing, Changes in the intensity and pattern of storms may also influence risks of flooding. Until more extensive sea level records become available, these forecasts will probably not change substantially for several decades. Now authorities with responsibility for coastal areas at risk must act to assess present risks and to put in place systems for giving an early warning of increasing future risks. Several countries already have such systems in operation. An MCDM-based expert system was developed to tackle the interrelationships between the climate change and the adaptation policies in terms of water resources management in the Georgia Basin, Canada. User interfaces of the developed expert system, named MAEAC (MCDM-based expert system for adaptation analysis under changing climate), was developed based on system configuration, knowledge acquisition, survey analysis, and MCDM-based policy analysis. A number of processes that were vulnerable to climate change were examined and pre-screene< d through extensive literature review, expert consultation and statistical analysis. Adaptation policies to impacts of temperature increase, precipitation-pattern variation and sea-level rise were comprehensively explicated and incorporated within the developed system. The MAEAC could be used for both acquiring knowledge of climate-change impacts on water resources in the Georgia Basin and supporting formulation of the relevant adaptation policies. It can also be applied to other watersheds to facilitate assessment of climate-change impacts on socio-economic and environmental sectors, as well as formulation of relevant adaptation policies. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. A semi-empirical relation is presented that connects global sea-level rise to global mean surface temperature. It is proposed that, for time scales relevant to anthropogenic warming, the rate of sea-level rise is roughly proportional to the magnitude of warming above the temperatures of the pre-Industrial Age. This holds to good approximation for temperature and sea-level changes during the 20th century, with a proportionality constant of 3.4 millimeters/year per degrees C. When applied to future warming scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this relationship results in a projected sea-level rise in 2100 of 0.5 to 1.4 meters above the 1990 level. Seasonal and inter-annual change in land water storage (expressed in terms of water volume change) over 27 large river basins worldwide are estimated from monthly GRACE geoids solutions computed at GFZ from February 2003 to February 2006. The largest annual water volume change is found in the Amazon basin, followed by the Parana, Ob, Orinoco, Tocantins, Niger, Congo, Ganges, Mekong, and Brahmaputra. In terms of trend over the 3-year period, positive and negative values are observed but in a number of cases computed trends are at the noise level. However significant negative trends are found in the Amazon, Ganges, Mississippi, Nile, Parana, and Zambezi basins, indicating water mass loss over that period. Positive trends (water mass gain) are marginally significant. We have computed the land water contribution to sea level change. On average over the 3-year time span, we find that the net effect is positive (net loss of water in terrestrial reservoirs), on the order of 0.19 +/- 0.06 mm/yr. If sustained over a longer time span than considered here, such a value may become comparable to the ice sheets contribution to sea level rise. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. In order to maintain an elevation in the intertidal zone at which marsh vegetation can survive, vertical accretion of the marsh surface must take place at a rate at least equal to the rate of relative sea-level rise. Net vertical accretion of coastal marshes is a result of interactions between tidal imports, vegetation and depositional processes. All of these factors are affected, directly or indirectly, by alterations in marsh hydrology which might occur as a result of sea-level rise. The overall response of coastal marshes to relative sea-level rise depends upon the relative importance of the inorganic and organic components of the marsh soil and the impact of increased hydroperiod on net accumulation. The varied combination of factors contributing to sediment supply, and their complexity at the scale of individual marshes, means that predicting the response of suspended sediment concentration in marsh floodwater to any changes which may occur as a result of sealevel rise, at anything other than the local scale is unlikely to be accurate. The impact of sea-level rise on net below-ground production is also complex. The sensitivity of certain species to waterlogging and soil chemical changes could result in a change in species composition or the migration of vegetation zones. Consequently, predicting the net impact of sea-level rise on organic matter accumulation is fraught with difficulties and requires improved understanding of interactions between vegetation, soil and hydrologic processes. Chronostratigraphic approaches to coastal geomorphology frequently include consideration of salt marsh deposits as indicators of past sea-level positions. Continuous horizons of such deposits can be used to infer that salt marshes were keeping pace with local rates of relative sea-level rise (RSLR). Rates of past accumulation, estimated using dating techniques, are then used to hindcast the rate of sea-level rise in that area. Estimates of contemporary sea-level rise rates are often derived from tide gauge records. This approach allows identification of subdecadal variations in mean water level. Accumulation rates of both organic and inorganic sediments can also be derived at these time scales and studies from many coastal marshes demonstrate the episodic nature of inorganic sediment deposition. The frequency and spacing of these events does not necessarily coincide with periods of increased local sea level. In addition, short-term increases in sea level could result in marsh deterioration as soils become excessively waterlogged. A conceptual model of changes in geomorphic and ecological processes contributing to marsh sustainability during the Holocene has been developed for the Mississippi delta plain (MDP). The survival of some marshes in this area, despite high rates of subsidence, indicates that the combined effect of organic and inorganic accumulation processes can be adequate to sustain coastal marshes in the face of sea-level rise. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. Shallow waters and lowland meet at the same level in the Wadden Sea, but are separated by walls of coastal defense. What are the prospects of this coastal ecosystem in a warmer world? We focus on tidal waters and inshore sedimentary bottoms, expect nutrient supply from land to decline and species introductions, temperature and sea level to rise. The effects are interrelated and will have an increasing likelihood of abrupt and irreversible developments. The biotic interactions are hardly predictable but we anticipate the following changes to be more likely than others: blooms of phytoplankton will be weak mainly because of increasing pelagic and benthic grazing pressure, both facilitated by warming. Possibly birds feeding on mollusks will encounter decreasing resource availability while fisheaters benefit. Extensive reefs of Pacific oysters could facilitate aquatic macrophytes. Sea level rise and concomitant hydrodynamics above tidal flats favor well-anchored suspension feeders as well as burrowing fauna adapted to dynamic permeable sand. With high shares of immigrants from overseas and the south, species richness will increase; yet the ecosystem stability may become lower. We suggest that for the next decades invasions of introduced species followed by warming and declining nutrient supply will be the most pressing factor on the changes in the Wadden Sea ecosystem, and the effects of sea level rise to be the key issue on the scale of the whole century and beyond. Questions: 1. Do pine seedlings in estuarine environments display discrete or continuous ranges of physiological tolerance to flooding and salinity? 2. What is the tolerance of Pinus taeda and P. serotina to low salinity and varying hydrologic conditions? 3. Are the assumptions for ecological equilibrium met for modeling plant community migration in response to sea-level rise? Location: Albemarle Peninsula, North Carolina, USA. Methods: In situ observations were made to quantify natural pine regeneration and grass cover along a salinity stress gradient ( from marsh, dying or dead forest, to healthy forest). A full-factorial greenhouse experiment was set up to investigate mortality and carbon allocation of Pinus taeda and P. serotina to low-salinity conditions and two hydrology treatments over 6 months. Treatments consisted of freshwater and two salinity levels ( 4 ppt and 8 ppt) under either permanently flooded or periodically flushed hydrologic conditions. Results: Natural pine regeneration was common (5-12 seedlings per m(2)) in moderate to well-drained soils where salinity concentrations were below ca. 3.5< ppt. Pine regeneration was generally absent in flooded soils, and cumulative mortality was 100% for 4 and 8 ppt salinity levels under flooded conditions in the greenhouse study. Under weekly flushing conditions, mortality was not significantly different between 0 and 4 ppt, confirming field observations. Biomass accumulation was higher for P. taeda, but for both pine species, the root to shoot ratio was suppressed under the 8 ppt drained treatment, reflecting increased below-ground stress. Conclusions: While Pinus taeda and P. serotina are commonly found in estuarine ecosystems, these species display a range of physiological tolerance to low-salinity conditions. Our results suggest that the rate of forest migration may lag relative to gradual sea-level rise and concomitant alterations in hydrology and salinity. Current bioclimate or landscape simulation models assume discrete thresholds in the range of plant tolerance to stress, especially in coastal environments, and consequently, they may overestimate the rate, extent, and timing of plant community response to sea-level rise. Australia's marine life is highly diverse and endemic. Here we describe projections of climate change in Australian waters and examine from the literature likely impacts of these changes on Australian marine biodiversity. For the Australian region, climate model simulations project oceanic warming, an increase in ocean stratification and decrease in mixing depth, a strengthening of the East Australian Current, increased ocean acidification, a rise in sea level, alterations in cloud cover and ozone levels altering the levels of solar radiation reaching the ocean surface, and altered storm and rainfall regimes. Evidence of climate change impacts on biological systems are generally scarce in Australia compared to the Northern Hemisphere. The poor observational records in Australia are attributed to a lack of studies of climate impacts on natural systems and species at regional or national scales. However, there are notable exceptions such as widespread bleaching of corals on the Great Barrier Reef and poleward shifts in temperate fish populations. Biological changes are likely to be considerable and to have economic and broad ecological consequences, especially in climate-change 'hot spots' such as the Tasman Sea and the Great Barrier Reef.< As rates of sea-level rise continue to increase due to climate change, land planners require accurate spatial analyses on the extent and timing of coastal flooding and associated hazards. Digital elevation data used to evaluate coastal vulnerability to flooding are available at various horizontal and vertical resolutions. However, the quality of digital elevation models (DEM) used in environmental assessment can significantly affect the detection of topographic features and the magnitude of hydrological processes. We used lidar elevation data in coastal North Carolina, USA to investigate the effects of horizontal resolution and connectivity on the extent and timing of flooding from sea-level rise. We found that the rate and extent of inundation were dependent on horizontal resolution and assumptions made on hydrological connectivity. The variation in flood extent was much larger (760 km(2)) at low sea-level projections (<0.4 m) than at high sea-level projections (>similar to 0.9 m, 114 km(2)) due to the effect of hydrological corrections on the coarse-scale DEM and topographic complexity at low elevations. Lidar elevation data provide a significant advance in mapping potential coastal flooding, but the extent and timing of inundation are sensitive to horizontal resolution and the modelling of hydrological connectivity. Local sea-level is affected by a number of forcing factors, which all contribute to the trends observed by tide gauges. Here we use the fingerprints of main factors contributing to secular sea-level trends to construct an initial empirical model that explains best the trends in sea-level as recorded by the large number of coastal tide gauges over the last 50 years. The forcing factors considered include steric changes derived from observations, post-glacial rebound as predicted by geophysical models and mass changes in the,e Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets as predicted by the static sea-level equation. The approximation of the observed spatial pattern of sea-level trends through a model based on the spatial fingerprints of the main forcing factors fully utilizes the information contents of the available observations and models and allows the interpolation of the sea-level trends between the tide gauges. As a result, we obtain the global picture of sea-level trends due to the forcing factors accounted for in the analysis. Moreover, we derive constraints on the mass changes of the large ice sheets. The empirical models explain about 15% of the variance of the sea-level trends. Nevertheless, the models are correlated with the observations on the level of 0.38 +/- 0.07, indicating that most of the unexplained variance is due to contributions with small spatial scales. Averaged over the last five decades, the results indicate that the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets have been melting with an equivalent contribution to global sea-level rise of 0.39 +/- 0.11 and 0.10 +/- 0.05 mm yr(-1) respectively. The steric signal derived from observations is clearly identified in the sea-level trends and is found to be at a minimum of 0.2 mm yr(-1), with the most likely value being close to 0.35 mm yr-1. The global tide gauge network, which covers only a small fraction of the ocean surface, appears to sense an average sea-level rise larger than the global average. Extrapolating the regression models to the global ocean and taking into account the uncertainties in the extrapolation results in a most likely global average of the order of 1.05 +/- 0.75 mm yr(-1). An investigation of marsh accretion rates on a New England type high marsh (Earn Island Wildlife Management Area, Stonington, Connecticut) reveals that this system is sensitive to changes in sea level and storm activity and the pear can accurately record rates of relative submergence as determined by tide gauge records over intervals of 2-5 decades. The results also suggest that the relationship between the accretion deficit and plant community structure is important when utilizing peat records to reconstruct historic sea-level curves within stable Spartina patens high marsh communities. In systems where major vegetation changes are prominent over short periods of time (<50 years), interpretations of sea-level rise should be limited to the system in which they are developed unless careful vertical controls can be maintained on the data and multiple datable horizons can be identified within the substrate. The results of this investigation further show that in a stable Spartina patens community within this particular system there is little vertical translocation of Cs-137, making this isotope a powerful tool for assessing rates of vertical marsh development since 1954. Seagrasses, marine flowering plants, have a long evolutionary history but are now challenged with rapid environmental changes as a result of coastal human population pressures. Seagrasses provide key ecological services, including organic carbon production and export, nutrient cycling, sediment stabilization, enhanced biodiversity, and trophic transfers to adjacent habitats in tropical and temperate regions. They also serve as "coastal canaries," global biological sentinels of increasing anthropogenic influences in coastal ecosystems, with large-scale losses reported worldwide. Multiple stressors, including sediment and nutrient runoff, physical disturbance, invasive species, disease, commercial fishing practices, aquaculture, overgrazing, algal blooms, and global warming, cause seagrass declines at scales of square meters to hundreds of square kilometers. Reported seagrass losses have led to increased awareness of the need for seagrass protection, monitoring, management, and restoration. However, seagrass science, which has rapidly grown, is disconnected from public awareness of seagrasses, which has lagged behind awareness of< other coastal ecosystems. There is a critical need for a targeted global conservation effort that includes a reduction of watershed nutrient and sediment inputs to seagrass habitats and a targeted educational program informing regulators and the public of the value of seagrass meadows. This paper (1) reviews mangrove forest pest accretion data obtained from carbonate settings of the Wider Caribbean Region and (2) evaluates the fate of these forests based upon current global eustatic sea-level rise projections. Historical pest accretion rates calculated using Cs-137 or Pb-219 average 3.7 mm yr(-1). Feat accretion rates calculated using C-14 average 1.0 mm yr(-1). The discrepancy between historical and geological accretion rates, also recognized in salt marsh settings, is attributed to organic decomposition and sediment compaction. Our conceptual model, which is based upon comparisons between projected rates of global eustatic sealevel rise and pest secretion, predicts stable forest conditions only it historical accretion rates persist during a conservative (low) sea-level rise of similar to 1.3 mm yr(-1). Best guess (middle) and high estimates of a sea-level rise of as much as 8 mm yr(-1) will likely submerge mangrove forests located within carbonate settings of the Wider Caribbean Region. Climate-change vulnerability assessment has become a frequently employed tool, with the purpose of informing policy-makers attempting to adapt to global change conditions. However, we suggest that there are three reasons to suspect that vulnerability assessment often promises more certainty, and more useful results, than it can deliver. First, the complexity of the system it purports to describe is greater than that described by other types of assessment. Second, it is difficult, if not impossible, to obtain data to test proposed interactions between different vulnerability drivers. Third, the time scale of analysis is too long to be able to make robust projections about future adaptive capacity. We analyze the results from a stakeholder workshop in a European vulnerability assessment, and find evidence to support these arguments. To cite this article: A. Patt et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005). (c) 2004 Academie des sciences. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved. The vulnerability of developing countries to potential impacts of climate change and the options for adaptation are rapidly emerging as central issues in the debate around policy responses to climate change. In order to prioritize, design and implement interventions to adapt to climate change, it is essential to adopt a coherent and consistent set of definitions and frameworks for examining vulnerability, adaptation and adaptive capacity. In practice, a variety of definitions of vulnerability and adaptation are found in the literature. This paper uses the base of literature from the context of the coastal impacts of climate change to draw some explicit linkages between the objectives of vulnerability and adaptation assessment and the definitions used in the analysis. We find that such a linkage is helpful for identifying the nature of assessment required, and the data and information necessary. The paper concludes with some thoughts regarding directions for research with regard to vulnerability and adaptation assessment. The burgeoning interest in social capital within the climate change community represents a welcome move towards a concern for the behavioural elements of adaptive action and capacity. In this paper the case is put forward for a critical engagement with social capital. There is need for an open debate on the conceptual and analytical traps and opportunities that social capital presents. The paper contrasts three schools of thought on social capital and uses a social capital lens to map out current and future areas for research on adaptation to climate change. It identifies opportunities for using social capital to research adaptive capacity and action within communities of place and communities of practice. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. The fact that the ongoing global process of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) contributes significantly to present-day observed rates of secular sea level change that are recorded on tide gauges is now rather well established. There is a continuing discussion, however, of the magnitude of the globally averaged rate of relative sea level rise that is residual to this GIA related 'contamination'. Accurate estimation of this residual is clearly important to the understanding of ongoing global change in the earth system. In the analyses presented herein, following a review of the global theory of the GIA process that focuses on the issue of rotational feedback, I begin by revisiting the issue of estimating this residual on the basis of secular sea level change measurements derived from long time series of annually averaged tide gauge recordings. These observations, all from the US east coast, are then decontaminated by subtracting estimates of the GIA effect determined on the basis of analysis of C-14 dated relative sea level histories to infer a (climate related?) residual signal. Also discussed herein, from a global modelling perspective, is the issue of the extent to which a globally averaged rate of sea level rise based upon TOPEX/POSEIDON type altimetric data (or secular gravity field data from the future GRACE mission) is expected to be contaminated by the GIA process. This issue has not been addressed previously and our analyses show that this contamination of the satellite altimeter estimated rate of global sea level rise will also be significantly influenced, locally, by ongoing glacial isostatic adjustment. However, when this signal is averaged over the surface track of TOPEX/POSEIDON we find that the extent to which this instrument's measure of the globally averaged rate of sea level rise is contaminated by the GIA process is small. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. The Manila Bay coastal area in The Philippines was evaluated for the possible consequences of accelerated sea level rise in the context of climate change and to assess adaptive responses to such threats. The coastal area is an important region in terms of commercial, industrial, agricultural, and aquacultural activities of The Philippines. Results show that areas along the coast if inundated by a 1 m sea level rise would include coastal barangays from 19 municipalities of Metro Manila, Bulacan, and Cavite and would cover an area of 5555 ha. Proposed response strategies consist of protecting the coast by building sea walls; institutional actions such as formulation of setback policies and construction regulations; and adaptive planning in the context of an integrated coastal zone management to address the short- and long-term problems, with the involvement of communities in the area. Information, education, and communication are essential along with the technical and scientific efforts to achieve a well-balanced adaptation plan. This study considers the Manila Bay coastal area of the Philippine for evaluation of possible consequences of accelerated sea level rise in the context of climate change, and suggests adaptive responses to such threats. The semienclosed Manila Bay is bounded by the provinces of Bataan, Pampanga, Bulacan, and Cavite, and some of the towns and cities of Metro Manila along the eastern side. This region is important to the commercial industrial agricultural and aquacultural activities of the Philippines, with Manila as the seat of the national government and the rest among the political constituents of the National Capital Region. An increasing trend in the mean sea level has been observed since 1965 and continues today. The bay area is already subject to several hazards including floods and storm surges during tropical cyclones. The shoreline has changed greatly in the last 5 to 10 years due to reclamation for housing, ports, coastal roads, buildings, and other urbanized developments, adding to the threat of inundation. Selection of appropriate responses is looked at in terms of expected vulnerability, costs, land use, and oth< er sociopolitical and legal considerations. Partial results show that parts of Cavite and Metro Manila Bay areas are especially vulnerable to accelerated sea level rise.S The physical responses to predicted sea-level rise are examined using examples from the south-east coast of Britain where tectonically induced sea level rise are already equivalent to those predicted under the global warming hypothesis. Intertidal profiles on this coast are shifting both upwards and shorewards while estuarine channels are becoming wider and shallower. These natural changes are interrupted by the presence of flood embankments which can force tidal waves inland along the estuary setting up increased flood risks here. Biological communities such as salt marsh are also affected and appear to be migrating inland along the estuary in response to sea-level changes but again this process is interrupted by flood embankments. Managed retreat of the embankments may alleviate some of these problems but this should not take the form of semi-enclosed tidal cells formed by breaching the present defences. Instead the increases in tidal prism and the effects of this on estuarine hydro-dynamics should be considered and an holistic management plan prepared for each coastal and estuarine area.c Restoration of reclaimed marshes in the United Kingdom, referred to as managed realignment, is both a scientific and a political issue. A cross-party House of Commons report to Government stressed that provision of long-term sustainable coastal defenses must start with the premise that "coasts need space" and that government must work to increase public awareness, scientific knowledge, and political will to facilitate such a retreat from the almost sacrosanct existing shoreline. Government, in turn, has agreed with the basis of the report but is aware of conflicting interests, not least the European legislation, which has designated large areas of reclaimed marshes as Special Areas of Conservation that cannot legally be restored to their former tidal processes. Against this background, it is essential that scientific research provides convincing arguments for the necessity for managed realignment, the location, extent, and type of marshlands that need to be restored to provide sustainable flood defenses, maintain and enhance conservation status, and ensure a healthy functioning estuarine system. We examine the political and scientific issues involved, discuss model predictions and field experiments into realignment techniques, and outline the preliminary results of such experiments showing the evolution of restored intertidal wetlands in the United Kingdom. The present concern about future climate change and sea-level rise due to the: enhanced greenhouse effect is put In the context of past changes. Best estimates of future changes are detailed, with an explanation of methods and uncertainties, Considerable progress is being made in regard to estimates of future sealevel rise and its regional variation, and towards predicting likely changes in the behaviour of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and tropical cyclones. Changes in rainfall amounts and intensity, and in extremes of surface temperature are other critical climatic variables for coral reefs. Impacts on coral reefs will result from a combination of stresses arising from several aspects of global change, including stresses due to sea-level rise, extreme temperatures, human damage (from mining, dredging, fishing and tourism), and changes in salinity and pollutant concentrations (nutrients, pesticides, herbicides and particulates), and in ocean currents, ENSO, and storm damage, These may be exacerbated by any reduction in calcification rates of corals due to changes in ocean chemistry. In view of ongoing uncertainties regarding future rates of change, especially at the local scale, impact and adaptation assessments cannot provide unequivocal answers, but rather must be couched in terms of probabilities and risk. Reef communities which are presently under stress are likely to be particularly vulnerable, Both autonomous and managed (or planned) adaptations should be considered. Despite the recent better understanding and awareness of the role of mangroves, these coastal forest communities continue to be destroyed or degraded (or euphemistically reclaimed) at an alarming rate. The figure of 1% per year given by Ong (1982) for Malaysia can be taken as a conservative estimate of destruction of mangroves in the Asia-Pacific region. Whilst the Japanese-based mangrove wood-chips industry continues in its destructive path through the larger mangrove ecosystems of the region, the focus of mangrove destruction has shifted to the conversion of mangrove areas into aquaculture ponds and the consequences of the unprecedented massive addition of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere by post industrial man. Mangroves are non-homogeneous; characterised by distinct vegetative zones that occupy the interface between land and sea and dynamically interacting with the atmosphere above as well as with the influences of the adjacent land and sea. The conservation of mangroves should thus include not only the various vegetation and tidal inundation zones but also the adjacent marine and terrestrial areas (including the water catchment area). On the current concern with global climate change, it is pointed out that relative sea level change is very much site dependent. For effective planning and management, it is vital to know if a particular site is stable, rising or sinking so efforts should be directed to find suitable methods for determining this. However, should rapid relative sea level rise take place, there is very little likelihood of saving mangroves whose landward margins have been developed by man, a fact to bear in mind when selecting sites for conservation. The Matang mangroves of Malaysia is a rare case of successful sustainable management of a tropical rain forest. Although the tools of management are available they are not widely applied. We particularly urge the Japanese mangrove wood-chips industry to look to long term sustainable use rather than short term gains. A suggestion is made to appeal to the new Government of Japan to take the lead in environmental friendliness especially to the rain forests of the Asia-Pacific region. More than half the world'S human population lives within 100 km of the coast, and that number is expected to increase by 25% over the next two decades. Consequently, coastal ecosystems are at serious risk. Larger coastal populations and increasing development have led to increased loading of toxic substances, nutrients and pathogens with subsequent algal blooms, hypoxia, beach closures, and damage to coastal fisheries. Recent climate change has led to the rise in sea level with loss of coastal wetlands and saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers. Coastal resources have traditionally been monitored on a stressor-by-stressor basis such as for nutrient loading or dissolved oxygen. To fully measure the complexities of coastal systems, we must develop a new set of ecologic indicators that span the realm of biological organization from genetic markers to entire ecosystems and are broadly applicable across geographic regions while integrating stressor types. We briefly review recent developments in ecologic indicators and emphasize the need for improvements in understanding of stress-response relationships, contributions of multiple stressors, assessments over different spatial and temporal scales, and reference conditions. We provide two examples of ecologic indicators that can improve our understanding of these inherent problems: a) the use of photopigments as indicators of the interactive effects of nutrients and hydrology, and b) biological community approaches that use multiple taxa to detect effects on ecosystem structure and function. These indicators are essential to measure the condition of coastal resources, to diagnose stressors, to communicate change to the public, and ultimately to protect human health and the quality of the coastal environment. Some of the effects of the global climate change comprise impacts on human h< ealth, agricultural production and plagues, sea level rise, patterns of precipitation and evaporation, and storms. The objective of this study is to assess the potential land loss upon a sea level rise of 0.5m in two Venezuelan coastal sectors: Cabo Codera-Parque Nacional Laguna de Tacarigua and Barcelona-Puerto La-Cruz-Guanta. It was estimated that the first one of the two sectors is more vulnerable to land loss due to erosion, while losses due to inundation are not significantly higher for any of the two areas. Impacts affect mostly urban areas, tourist infrastructure and coastal wetlands. In the vulnerability analysis of sea level impact, the response options evaluated would generate a very high cost for the country. It is proposed that vulnerability analysis to sea level rise be incorporated as part of the coastal zones planning and management process.@
To develop improved estimates of (1) flooding due to storm surges, and (2) wetland losses due to accelerated sea-level rise, the work of Hoozemans et al. (1993) is extended to a dynamic analysis. It considers the effects of several simultaneously changing factors, including: (1) global sea-level rise and subsidence; (2) increasing coastal population; and (3) improving standards of flood defence (using GNP/capita as an "ability-to-pay" parameter). The global sea-level rise scenarios are derived from two General Circulation Model (GCM) experiments of the Hadley Centre: (1) the HadCM2 greenhouse gas only ensemble experiment and (2) the more recent HadCM3 greenhouse gas only experiment. In all cases there is a global rise in sea level of about 38 cm from 1990 to the 2080s. No other climate change is considered. Relative to an evolving reference scenario without sea-level rise, this analysis suggests that the number of people hooded by storm surge in a typical year will be more than five times higher due to sea-level rise by the 2080s. Many of these people will experience annual or more frequent flooding, suggesting that the increase in flood frequency will be more than nuisance level and some response (increased protection, migration, etc.) will be required. In absolute terms, the areas most vulnerable to flooding are the southern Mediterranean, Africa, and most particularly, South and South-east Asia where there is a concentration of low-lying populated deltas. However, the Caribbean, the Indian Ocean islands and the Pacific Ocean small islands may experience the largest relative increase in flood risk. By the 2080s, sea-level rise could cause the loss of up to 22% of the world's coastal wetlands. When combined with other losses due to direct human action, up to 70% of the world's coastal wetlands could be lost by the 2080s, although then is considerable uncertainty. Therefore, sea-level rise would reinforce other adverse trends of wetland loss. The largest losses due to sea-level rise will be around the Mediterranean and Baltic and to a lesser extent on the Atlantic coast of Central and North America and the smaller islands of the Caribbean. Collectively, these results show that a relatively small global rise in sea level could have significant adverse impacts if there is no adaptive response. Given the "commitment to sea-level rise" irrespective of any realistic future emissions policy, there is a need to start strategic planning of appropriate responses now. Given that coastal flooding and wetland loss are already important problems, such planning could have immediate benefits.a Global sea levels have slowly risen during this century, and that rise is expected to accelerate in the coming century due to anthropogenic global warming. A total rise of up to 1 m is possible by the year 2100 (relative to 1990). To deal with this change, coastal managers require site-specific information on relative (i.e., local) changes in sea level to determine what might be threatened. Therefore as a first step, global sea-level rise scenarios need to be transformed into relative sea-level change scenarios which take account of local and regional factors, such as vertical land movements, in addition to global changes. Even present rates of relative sealevel rise have important long-term implications for coastal management-projecting existing trends predicts a relative sea-level rise from 1990 to 2100 of up to 0.4 m and 1.15 m for the Mid-Atlantic Region and Louisiana, respectively. Ignoring sea-level rise will lead to unwise decisions and increasing hazard with time. This article adapts the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global scenarios for sea-level rise (Warrick et at, 1996) to three relative sea-level rise scenarios for the contiguous United States. These scenarios cover the period 1990 to 2100 and provide a basis to assess possible proactive measures for sea-level rise. However, they are subject to the same uncertainties as the global scenarios as most of the sea-level rise will occur decades into the future. When considering what should be done now in response to future sea-level rise, given these large uncertainties, if is best to identify (I) low-cost, no regret responses which would maintain or enhance the choices available to tomorrow's coastal managers; and (2) sectors where reactive adaptation would have particularly high costs and where allowance for future sealevel rise can be considered a worthwhile ''insurance policy. '' Sea-level rise will impact an evolving coastal landscape which already is experiencing a range of other pressures. Therefore, to be most effective, responses to sea-level rise need to be integrated with all other planning occurring in the coastal zone. This paper introduces the collection of papers on impacts of sea-level rise on a number of European countries, and presents some overarching conclusions.S The Mediterranean is experiencing a number of immediate coastal problems which are triggering efforts to improve short-term coastal management. This paper shows that coastal management also needs to address long-term problems and, in particular, the likelihood of climate change. Regional scale studies suggest that the Mediterranean is particularly vulnerable to increased flooding by storm surges as sea levels rise-a 1-m rise in sea level would cause at least a sir-fold increase in the number of people experiencing such flooding in a typical year, without considering population growth. Protection is quite feasible, however, this would place a greater burden on those Mediterranean countries in the south than those in the north. All coastal wetlands appear threatened. Case studies of coastal cities (Venice and Alexandria), deltas (Nile, Po, Rhone and Ebro), and islands (Cyprus) support the need to consider climate change in coastal planning. However, the critical issues vary from site to site and from setting to setting. In deltaic areas and low-lying coastal plains climate change, particularly sea-level rise, is already considered as an important issue, but elsewhere this is not the case. Therefore, there is a need for coastal management plans to explicitly address long-term issues, including climate change, and integrate this planning with short-term issues. This is entirely consistent with existing guidelines.(1) Given the large uncertainty concerning the future, planning for climate change will involve identifying and implementing low-cost proactive measures, such as appropriate land use planning or improved design standards incorporated within renewal cycles, as well as identifying sectors or activities which may be compromised by likely climate change. In the latter case, any necessary investment can be seen as a prudent 'insurance policy'. This paper considers the possible benefits of mitigation of climate change for coastal areas with a strong emphasis on sea-level rise as this is one of the most certain consequences of human-induced global warming. There is a long-term 'commitment to sea-level rise' due to the long thermal lags of the ocean system and hence the response of sea-level rise to mitigation is slower than for other climate factors. Therefore, while climate stabilisation reduces coastal impacts during the 21st century, compared to unmitigated emissions, the lar< gest benefits may occur in the 22nd century (and beyond). The results of the analysis suggest that a mixture of adaptation and mitigation policies need to be considered for coastal areas, as this will provide a more robust response to human-induced climate change than either policy in isolation. This requires the joint evaluation of mitigation and adaptation in coastal areas, ideally using a probabilistic risk-based methodology, which would be a departure from existing analyses. Because of the long time constants involved such assessments need to continue beyond 2100 to provide the full implications of the different policy choices. Global sea levels are rising and this change is expected to accelerate in the coming century due to anthropogenic global warming. Any rise in sea level promotes land loss, increased flooding and salinisation. The impacts of and possible responses to sea-level rise vary at the local and regional scale due to variation in local and regional factors. Policy responses to the human-enhanced greenhouse effect need to address these different dimensions of climate change, including the regional scale. Based on global reviews and analyses of relative vulnerability, 4 contrasting regions are selected and examined in more detail using local and national assessments. These regions are (1) Europe, (2) West Africa, (3) South, South-East and East Asia and (4) the Pacific Small Islands. Some potential impacts of sea-level rise are found to have strong regional dimensions and regional cooperation to foster mitigation approaches (to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and, hence, the magnitude of climate change) and adaptive solutions to climate change impacts would be beneficial. For instance, in South, South-East and East Asia subsiding megacities and questions about long-term deltaic management are common and challenging issues. The debate on mitigation and stabilisation of greenhouse forcing also requires information on regional impacts of different emission pathways. These results will be provided by integrated models, calibrated against national assessments.u Taking the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) climate and socio-economic,scenarios (A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 'future worlds'), the potential impacts of sea-level rise through the twenty-first century are explored using complementary impact and economic analysis methods at the global scale. These methods have never been explored together previously. In all scenarios, the exposure and hence the impact potential due to increased flooding)by sea-level rise increases significantly compared to the base year (1990). While mitigation reduces impacts, due to the lagged response of sea-level rise to atmospheric temperature rise, impacts cannot be avoided during the twenty-first century by this response alone. Cost-benefit analyses suggest that widespread protection will be an economically rational response to land loss due to sea-level rise in the four SRES futures that are considered. The most vulnerable future worlds to sea-level rise appear to be the A2 and B2 scenarios, which primarily reflects differences in the socio-economic situation (coastal population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP/capita), rather than the magnitude of sea-level rise. Small islands and deltaic settings stand out as being more vulnerable as shown in many earlier analyses. Collectively, these results suggest that human societies will have more choice in how they respond to sea-level rise than is often assumed. However, this conclusion needs to be tempered by recognition that we still do not understand these choices and significant impacts remain possible. Future worlds which experience larger rises in sea-level than considered here (above 35 cm), more extreme events, a reactive rather than proactive approach to adaptation, and where GDP growth is slower or more unequal than in the SRES futures remain a concern. There is considerable scope for further research to better understand these diverse issues. This paper considers the implications of a range of global-mean sea-level rise and socio-economic scenarios on: (1) changes in flooding by storm surges; and (2) potential losses of coastal wetlands through the 21st century. These scenarios are derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Four different storylines are analysed: the A1FI, A2, B 1 and B2 'worlds'. The climate scenarios are derived from the HadCM3 climate model driven by the SRES emission scenarios. The SRES scenarios for global-mean sea-level rise range from 22 cm (B I world) to 34 cm (A1FI world) by the 2080s, relative to 1990. All other climate factors, including storm characteristics, are assumed to remain constant in the long term. Population and GDP scenarios are downscaled from the SRES regional analyses supplemented with other relevant scenarios for each impact analysis. The flood model predicts that about 10 million people/year experienced coastal flooding due to surges in 1990. The incidence of flooding will change without sea-level rise, but these changes are strongly controlled by assumptions on protection. Assuming that defence standards improve with growth in GDP/capita (lagged by 30 years), flood incidence increases in all four cases to the 2020s due to the growing exposed population. Then to the 2080s, the incidence of flooding declined significantly to less than or equal to 5 million people/year in the B2 world, less than or equal to 2 million people/year in the B I world and less than or equal to I million people/year in the A1FI world due to improving defence standards. In contrast, flood incidence continues to increase in the A2 world to the 2050s, and in the 2080s it is still 18-30 million people/year. This reflects the greater exposure and more limited adaptive capacity of the A2 world, compared to the other SRES storylines. Sea-level rise increases the flood impacts in all cases although significant impacts are not apparent until the 2080s when the additional people flooded are 7-10 million, 29-50 million, 2-3 million and 16-27 million people/year under the A1FI, A2, B I and B2 worlds, respectively. Hence, the A2 world also experiences the highest increase in the incidence of flooding. This is true under all the realistic scenario combinations that were considered demonstrating that socio-economic factors can greatly influence vulnerability to sea-level rise. The trends of the results also suggest that flood impacts due to sea-level rise could become much more severe through the 22nd century in all cases, especially in the A1F1 world. Note that impacts using a climate model with a higher climate sensitivity would produce larger impacts than HadCM3. Coastal wetlands will be lost due to sea-level rise in all world futures with 5-20% losses by the 2080s in the A1FI world. However, these losses are relatively small compared to the potential for direct and indirect human destruction. Thus, the difference in environmental attitudes between the A1/A2 worlds and the B1/B2 worlds would seem to have more important implications for the future of coastal wetlands, than the magnitude of the sea-level rise scenarios during the 21st Century. These results should be seen as broad analysis of the sensitivity of the coastal system to the HadCM3 SRES global-mean sea-level rise scenarios. While these impact estimates are only for one climate model, for both impact factors they stress the importance of socio-economic conditions and other non-climate factors as a fundamental control on the magnitude of impacts both with and without sea-level rise. The A2 world experiences the largest impacts during the 21st century, while the B1 world has the smallest impacts, with the differences more reflecting socio-economic factors than climate change. This suggests that the role of development pathways in influencing the impacts of climate change needs to be given more attention. Analysis of the response to climate change and sea-level rise requires a link from climate change science to the resulting impacts and their policy implications. This paper explores the impacts of sea-level rise, particular< ly increased coastal flooding due to storm surges. In particular, it asks the simple question "how,much will projected global sea-level rise exacerbate coastal flood problems, if ignored?" This is an important question to the intergovernmental process considering climate change. Further many countries presently ignore sea-level rise in long-term coastal planning, even though global sea levels are presently slowly rising. Using the model of Nicholls et al. [Global Environmental Change 9 (1999) S69], the analysis. considers the flood impacts of sea-level rise on an "IS92a world" based on a consistent set of scenarios of global-mean sea-level rise, subsidence (where appropriate), coastal population change (usually increase), and flood defence standards (derived from GDP/capita). Two of the protection scenarios consider the possible upgrade of flood defences, but no allowance for global-mean sea-level rise is allowed to ensure consistency with the question being investigated. This model has been validated against national- and regional-scale assessments indicating that the relative results are reasonable, and the absolute results are of the right order of magnitude. The model estimates that 10 million people experienced flooding annually in 1990. It also predicts that the incidence of flooding will change without sea-level rise due to changes to the other three factors. Taking the full range of scenarios considered by 2100 the number of people flooded could be from 0.4 to 39 million/year. All the sea-level rise scenarios would cause an increase in flooding during the 21st century if measures to adapt to sea-level rise are not taken. However, there are significant uncertainties and the number of people who are estimated to experience flooding in 2100 is 16-388 million for the mid (55-cm) global-mean sea-level rise scenarios, and up to 510 million people/year for the high (96-cm) scenario. These results suggest that sea-level rise could be a significant problem if it is ignored, and hence it needs to be considered within the policy process considering climate change in terms of mitigation (reducing greenhouse gas emissions) and adaptation (improved coastal management and planning) needs.m The TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) satellite altimeter mission has provided estimates of global mean sea level since late 1992 with a precision of approximately 4 mm. Over the first 3.5 years of the mission, TIP has observed a mean sea level rise of +0.5 mm/year when on-board estimates of the instrument drift are employed (and after correcting for a recently discovered software error), and +2.8 mm/year when an additional external tide gauge-based calibration estimate is used. A preliminary estimate of the error in the latter estimate is 1.3 mm/year, however this issue requires more research. Characterization of the observed sea level variations using Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) indicates that most of the mean sea level rise can be described by a single mode of the EOF expansion. The spatial characteristics of this mode suggests it is related to the El Nine Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena. EOF analysis of sea level variations from the Semtner/Chervin ocean circulation model reveal a nearly identical mode, although its effect on mean sea level is unknown due to a constant volume constraint used in the model. EOF analysis of measured sea surface temperature (SST) variations also show a mode with similar temporal and spatial structure. However, the concentration of the observed sea level rise in this mode does not preclude the possibility that multiple phenomena have contributed to this mode, thus a link between the observed sea level rise and the ENSO phenomena is only weakly suggested. The absolute value of the observed mean sea level rise will depend on refinements currently being made in the instrument calibration techniques. In addition, the possibility of interannual and decadal variations of global mean sea level requires that a much longer time series of satellite altimetry be collected before variations caused by climate change can be unambiguously detected.6 Global climate change is expected to cause sea level rise, which will have major effects on Singapore because it is a small, low-lying island state. With the high degree of urbanization and industrialization on the island, land is scarce and very valuable. Examining three sea level rise scenarios for the next century, we explore whether Singapore should defend their coast or allow it to be inundated. Across ten coastal sites representing all market land in Singapore, we found that protection was the lowest cost strategy. The annual cost of protecting the coasts of Singapore will rise over time as the sea level rises and will range from 0.3 to 5.7 million US$ by 2050 to 0.9 to 16.8 million US$ by 2100. The present value of these costs ranges from 0.17 to 3.08 million US$ depending on the sea level rise scenario. Very low frequency (VLF) sea. level variations are an important indicator of global climate change, and their measurement can provide important information for determining the socioeconomic impact of sea level change on coastal land use. The prospect of measuring VLF sea level variations has been assessed using approximately 5 years of satellite altimeter data from the TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) mission, where synoptic mapping of the geocentric height of the ocean surface is routinely achieved with a point-to-point accuracy of better than 4 fm, The global mean sea level variations measured by T/P every 10 days have an RMS of 4 mm and a rate of change + 3.1 +/- 1.3 mm/year, after accounting for an average instrument drift computed using the global tide gauge network by Mitchum (1998). A likely cause of the observed instrument drift is the microwave radiometer, which provides the water vapor delay correction, which results in a revised estimate of + 2.5 mm/year if the error is assumed to be linearly related to the mean water vapor delay. Approximately half of this rise appears related to an increase in sea level that began in mid-1996, thus it is unlikely to be sustained over the long term. Estimates of sea level change over the major ocean basins reveal that the North Atlantic has risen over the T/P mission, and this is believed to be related to decadal changes in heat storage. Maps of the geographic variability of the observed sea level trends are currently dominated by ENSO variations, and thus the climate change signals cannot currently be isolated. These results suggest that T/P, when combined with tide gauge monitoring of the satellite instruments, is achieving the necessary accuracy to distinguish sea level rise caused by climate change from the natural 'background' rate of sea level rise, although a longer time series is necessary to average out possible interannual and decadal variations. A longer time series will also reduce the errors in estimates of the altimeter calibration, providing an important constraint on any long-term instrument drift. Future research will focus on establishing a more realistic error budget for these measurements of global mean sea level, so that they can be put in the proper context with other observations of global climate change, In addition, the study of the spatial variability of the sea level rise signal will become increasingly important as a longer time series is collected. The variations of global mean sea level are an important indicator of global climate change, and their measurement can provid
! " # $ % & ' ( ) * + , - . / 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 : ; < = > ? @ A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z [ \ ] ^ _ ` a b c d e f g i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z { | } ~ e important information for determining the socioeconomic impact of sea level change on coastal land use. The analysis of historical tide gauge records generally indicates that sea level has risen at a rate of about 2 mm/yr during the last 100 years; however, this estimate is somewhat uncertain due to the effects of regional crustal motion, lack of uniform temporal coverage, and the limited spatial sampling of tide gauges. The prospect of measuring variations in global mean sea level has been assessed using approximately 2.5 years of satellite altimeter data from the TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) mission, where synoptic mapping of the geocentric height of the ocean surface is routinely ac< hieved with a point-to-point accuracy of better than 5 cm. The global mean sea level variations measured by T/P every 10 days have an rms of 6 mm (4 mm after detrending), some of which is shown to be correlated with sea surface temperature variations. The rate of change of global mean sea level derived from 2.5 years of data is +5.8 mm/yr with a scatter of 0.7 mm/yr. Currently, it is impossible to accurately estimate the error in the measured rate of sea level rise, since little is known about the long-term behavior of the measurement errors at the millimeter level. In addition, there is evidence from the sea surface temperature record that the measured rate of sea level rise is associated with a relatively short-term (interannual) variation unrelated to the long-term signal expected from global warming. Nevertheless, these results suggest that T/P is achieving the necessary repeatability to measure global sea level variations caused by climate change, and a longer time series will significantly improve the sea level rise estimate by averaging measurement error and real sea level variations. A longer time series will also reduce the errors in estimates of the altimeter calibration, providing an important constraint on any long-term instrument drift. Future research will focus on establishing a realistic error budget for these measurements of global mean sea level, so that they can be put in the proper context with other observations of global climate change. In this paper we propose a framework for evaluating how prepared California resource managers are for risks of continued climate change. The framework presented suggests three critical dimensions of preparedness - awareness of climate-related risks, analytic capacity to translate such climate risks information into specific planning and management activities, and the extent of actions taken to address the risks. We illustrate the application of this framework in this paper through preliminary research of California coastal managers where we identify limited awareness of climate-change related risks, limited analytic capacity, and significant constraints on the abilities of institutions and individuals to take adaptation actions. Our analysis suggests that for California to realize its significant adaptive capacity and be able to manage the unavoidable impacts of climate change, resource managers need to be engaged more effectively in future discussions of managing climate risks in the state. Changes in sea level (relative to the moving crust) are associated with changes in ocean volume (mostly thermal expansion) and in ocean mass (melting and continental storage): zeta(t) = zeta(steric)(t) + zeta(eustatic)(t). Recent compilations of global ocean temperatures by Levitus and coworkers are in accord with coupled ocean/atmosphere modeling of greenhouse warming; they yield an increase in 20th century ocean heat content by 2 x 10(23) J (compared to 0.1 X 10(23) J of atmospheric storage), which corresponds to zeta(greenhouse)(2000) = 3 cm. The greenhouse-related rate is accelerating, with a present value zeta(greenhouse)(2000) approximate to 6 cm/century. Tide records going back to the 19th century show no measurable acceleration throughout the late 19th and first half of the 20th century; we take ,zeta(historic) = 18 cm/century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change attributes about 6 cm/century to melting and other eustatic processes, leaving a residual of 12 cm of 20th century rise to be accounted for, The Levitus compilation has virtually foreclosed the attribution of the residual rise to ocean warming (notwithstanding our ignorance of the abyssal and Southern Oceans): the historic rise started too early, has too linear a trend, and is too large. Melting of polar ice sheets at the upper limit of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates could close the gap, but severe limits are imposed by the observed perturbations in Earth rotation. Among possible resolutions of the enigma are: a substantial reduction from traditional estimates (including ours) of 1.5-2 mm/y global sea level rise; a substantial increase in the estimates of 20th century ocean heat storage; and a substantial change in the interpretation of the astronomic record. The anticipated future increases in global surface temperatures are likely to have major impacts on the distribution of species. Predicting future species' distributions is a key area of importance in research, which is largely being addressed through the use of climate envelope models. While climate envelope models may indicate the broad direction of likely changes in distribution, they fail to incorporate the non-climatic factors that are important determinants of species' distributions within their current range, which may mean that the observed response will differ greatly from these predictions. When considering specific species, these ecological details are likely to be extremely important, but their inclusion in predictive models is difficult. We illustrate the complexities of unravelling climate impacts on species distribution and population size using migratory shorebirds as an example. With the potential threat of global climate change leading to sea-level rise, policy makers and engineers are looking towards managed realignment as a genuine attempt to provide a more sustainable coastal defence strategy. Public perceptions and attitudes towards this approach have generally indicated that it is not a favoured defence option as local residents often view managed realignment as 'giving in to the sea'. Brancaster West Marsh is the first of three ongoing studies that will attempt to identify changes in public acceptance of managed realignment and the Environment Agency (the main statutory body responsible for these works). It is hypothesised that local residents win show the most support for this type of strategy once it is fully established rather than at the inception or during the construction phases. A postal questionnaire, composed mainly of attitude statements was used to elicit resident perceptions and attitudes on the local environment, coastal flooding, coastal defence and managed realignment. Findings from the current Brancaster scheme suggest that residents who have a higher regard for the Environment Agency are generally more accepting of the scheme, however, the results could not conclusively determine whether the majority of the respondents support the scheme. Qualitative data also highlighted conflicting views among residents on the issues of sustainability, hard and soft defences, economics, the environment and consultation. This was thought to have resulted from information feedback deficiencies between the public and operating authorities. The study concludes that the information needs of local residents and access to information are integral components in the process of public understanding and should be addressed and assessed on a case-by-case basis. This paper assesses the potential impacts of climate change on the mid-Atlantic coastal (MAC) region of the United States. In order of increasing uncertainty, it is projected that sea level, temperature and streamflow will increase in the MAC region in response to higher levels of atmospheric CO2. A case study for Delaware based on digital elevation models suggests that, by the end of the 21st century, 1.6% of its land area and 21% of its wetlands will be lost to an encroaching sea. Sea-level rise will also result in higher storm surges, causing 100 yr floods to occur 3 or 4 times more frequently by the end of the 21st century. Increased accretion in coastal wetlands, however, which may occur in response to increases in CO2, temperature, and streamflow, could mitigate some of the flooding effect of sea-level rise. Warming alone will result in northward displacements of some mobile estuarine species and will exacerbate the already low summer oxygen levels in mid-Atlantic estuaries because of increased oxygen demand and decreased oxygen solubility. Streamflow increases could substantially degrade water quality, with significant negative consequences for submerged aquatic vegetation and birds< . Though climate change may have some positive impacts on the MAC region, such as increased coastal tourism due to warming and some ecological benefits from less-frequent harsh winters, most impacts are expected to be negative. Policies designed to minimize adverse ecological impacts of human activities on coastal ecosystems in the mid-Atlantic, such as decreases in nutrient loading of watersheds, could help mitigate some of the risks associated with future climate variability and change in this region.P Adaptation is a process of deliberate change in anticipation of or in reaction to external stimuli and stress. The dominant research tradi tion on adaptation to environmental change primarily takes an actor-centered view, focusing on the agency of social actors to respond to specific environmental stimuli and emphasizing the reduction of vulnerabilities. The resilience approach is systems orientated, takes a more dynamic view, and sees adaptive capacity as a core feature of resilient social-ecological systems. The two approaches converge in identifying necessary components of adaptation. We argue that resilience provides a useful framework to analyze adaptation processes and to identify appropriate policy responses. We distinguish between incremental adjustments and transformative action and demonstrate that the sources of resilience for taking adaptive action are common across scales. These are the inherent system characteristics that absorb perturbations without losing function, networks and social capital that allow autonomous action, and resources that promote institutional learning.r A series of dynamic penetration tests were performed up to a maximum depth of 2 in along sandy coastlines of Sardinia and Latium, Italy, in order to examine the change in resistance showed by sands. A maximum of resistance appears at the depth where the current sea level varies with tide fluctuations; this maximum resistance is due to capillary forces, which occur and disappear two times a day. A second maximum of sand resistance was found about half a meter under the first. In two cases where it was possible to attribute an age to the sands showing this more ancient level, the ages were before 37 AD and about 1700 AD. The features of this compact sand level suggest that between these two ages the sea level must have been practically constant, and unchanged until 300 years ago. These results were compared with tide gauge data recorded in the Netherlands, northern Italy and France. The data from the Amsterdam region, the oldest ones in the world, were reinterpreted as follows: the site of the Amsterdam tide gauge station is recognised as having undergone local settlements, while the entire region is denied to have been, as previously claimed, subject to a regional subsidence in the period of interest. As a consequence, also in the Amsterdam region the sea level maintained nearly the same position at least from 1700 up to about 1800. Then this level, which as from now can be labelled as "pre-industrial", rose more and more rapidly, in agreement with the accelerated character of the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere. In the Netherlands, northern Italy and France the amount of sea level rise in the last 200 years seems to be slightly smaller (20-23 cm) than the mean sea rise in the world (about 27 cm), while in the study area (central Mediterranean) the sea rise is shown to be about twice as much. Another result of this study regards the tendency of sea level change. The study showed that, of the two peaks of sand resistance found, the most recent peak is not coincident with the present sea level at the moment of the tests: it is about 10 cm higher. This difference is possibly due to an actual lowering of the sea, a countertendence likely to have begun in the year 2000. If this interpretation is true, it would mean that the pattern of the sea level rise, which up to now had been found to follow an upward accelerated movement, has presently ceased, to possibly invert its movement.~ Sea-level change associated with climate change involves various interactions between different components of the Earth system - primarily oceans, ice sheets and the solid Earth. As a consequence, sea-level science is highly multi- and interdisciplinary, requiring collaboration between scientists who measure and model properties of and processes within these various subsystems. This paper provides a broad and cursory glimpse into the processes underlying climate-driven sea-level change. A key message of this paper is that, contrary to popular belief, climate-driven sea-level change is not spatially uniform. This is a doubted-edged sword: it complicates the processes of producing well-constrained estimates of future sea-level rise at regional to local scales, but it provides the opportunity to better understand past climate change through modelling observations of sea-level changes.w An assessment of the vulnerability to sea level rise and climate change was performed for island countries in the South Pacific (Tonga, Fiji, Samoa, and Tuvalu) under the collaboration of Japanese experts and the South Pacific Regional Environment Programme. A combination of experience-based and scientific methods were developed to reveal the overall vulnerability of and possible impacts on the coastal zone sectors. The studies identified the common impacts on and vulnerability of these countries. Inundation and flooding are the common threats to these islands because, of their low-lying setting; the problem is exacerbated by the social trends of population growth and migration to main islands, in particular to the capital cities. Other threats include beach erosion, saltwater intrusion, and impacts on the infrastructure and coastal society. For the island countries, the response to sea level rise and climate change focuses on adaptation rather than on reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (that is, mitigation). Based on the results of the vulnerability assessment, the concept of and options for adaptation are also discussed. Sea-Surface Temperatures (SSTs), upper water Heat Storage (HS), Sea-Level Displacements (SLDs), Sea-Ice Concentration (SICs) in the Bering Seas and associated atmospheric circulations are analyzed to identify dominant interannual to interdecadal variations. As a representative time series of the SST variations, Principal Component (PC) of the first mode of a seasonally combined Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) is employed. The corresponding EOF (spatial pattern) exhibits the smallest amplitudes in winter and largest in summer. PC1 is characterized by a warming trend throughout the record (1921-2001) with the warmest year in 1997, which is followed by rapid cooling until 1999. The warming from 1995-1997 and cooling from 1997-1999 are commonly found in HS along the southern rim of the Bering Sea, and also accompanied by SLD rise and fall, respectively. The SIC variability corresponding to SST PC1 is prominent in the eastern Bering Sea in spring with correlations as high as 0.7, but good correlations were mainly observed prior to 1990. The correlations between the SST PC1 and sea-level pressures (SLPs) also suggest that the spring atmospheric circulation anomalies play an important role in the variations of the SST and sea-ice in the Bering Sea. The cooling and SLD fall in the late 1990s in the Bering Sea might be related with a possible major regime shift in 1998/1999, which was discussed by Minobe (2000), Hare and Mantua (2000), and Schwing and Moore (2000). In the 1998/99 change over the North Pacific, SSTs and HS increased abruptly both in the Kuroshio/Oyashio Extension region and the central North Pacific, accompanied by cooling in the eastern North Pacific. At the same time, SLDs rose from Japan to 160 W roughly along Kuroshio Extension path with a tongue-like structure. The tongue-like SLD rise is likely forced by wintertime atmospheric anomalies associated with SLP increase in the eastern North Pacific. The hinging reef at Pointe-au-Sable (Mauritius, Indian Ocean) was used to examine the effects of Holocene sea-level rise on coral growth. This reef is about 1000 m wide and comprises a forereef< slope (30 m maximum depth), a narrow reef crest and a very shallow backreef (1.5 m maximum depth). Four major coral communities were recognized, which developed within relatively narrow depth ranges: a Pachyseris/Oulophyllia community (deeper than 20 m), an Acropora 'tabulate'/Faviid community (20-6 m); a robust branching Acropora community (less than 6 m) and a Pavona community (less than 10 m). Three high-recovery cores show the Holocene reef sequence is a maximum of 19.3 m thick and comprises four coral biofacies which are similar to counterparts identified in modern communities: robust branching, tabular-branching, robust branching-domal and foliaceous coral facies. A minimum sea-level curve for the past 7500 years was constructed. Using distribution patterns of coral biofacies and radiocarbon dates from corals, reconstruction of reef growth history indicates that both offshore and onshore reef zones were developing coevally, aggrading at rates of 4.3 mm year(-1) from 6900 years B.P. The reef caught up with sea-level only after sea-level stabilized. Changes in coral community and reef growth rates were driven principally by increasing water agitation due to the decrease in accommodation space. Based on the composition of the successive coral assemblages, the reef appears to have grown through successive equilibrium stages. Salt marsh ecosystems are maintained by the dominant macrophytes that regulate the elevation of their habitat within a narrow portion of the intertidal zone by accumulating organic matter and trapping inorganic sediment. The long-term stability of these ecosystems is explained by interactions among sea level, land elevation, primary production, and sediment accretion that regulate the elevation of the sediment surface toward an equilibrium with mean sea level. We show here in a salt marsh that this equilibrium is adjusted upward by increased production of the salt marsh macrophyte Spartina alterniflora and downward by an increasing rate of relative sea-level rise (RSLR). Adjustments in marsh surface elevation are slow in comparison to interannual anomalies and long-period cycles of sea level, and this lag in sediment elevation results in significant variation in annual primary productivity. We describe a theoretical model that predicts that the system will be stable against changes in relative mean sea level when surface elevation is greater than what is optimal for primary production. When surface elevation is less than optimal, the system will be unstable. The model predicts that there is an optimal rate of RSLR at which the equilibrium elevation and depth of tidal flooding will be optimal for plant growth However, the optimal rate of RSLR also represents an upper limit because at higher rates of RSLR the plant community cannot sustain an elevation that is within its range of tolerance. For estuaries with high sediment loading, such as those on the southeast coast of the United States, the limiting rate of RSLR was predided to be at most 1.2 cm/yr, which is 3.5 times greater than the current, long-term rate of RSLR. Global climate change is expected to affect temperature and precipitation patterns, oceanic and atmospheric circulation, rate of rising sea level, and the frequency, intensity, timing, and distribution of hurricanes and tropical storms. The magnitude of these projected physical changes and their subsequent impacts on coastal wetlands will vary regionally. Coastal wetlands in the southeastern United States have naturally evolved under a regime of rising sea level and specific patterns of hurricane frequency, intensity, and timing. A review of known ecological effects of tropical storms and hurricanes indicates that storm timing, frequency, and intensity can alter coastal wetland hydrology, geomorphology, biotic structure, energetics, and nutrient cycling. Research conducted to examine the impacts of Hurricane Hugo on colonial waterbirds highlights the importance of longterm studies for identifying complex interactions that may otherwise be dismissed as stochastic processes. Rising sea level and even modest changes in the frequency, intensity, timing, and distribution of tropical storms and hurricanes are expected to have substantial impacts on coastal wetland patterns and processes. Persistence of coastal wetlands will be determined by the interactions of climate and anthropogenic effects, especially how humans respond to rising sea level and how further human encroachment on coastal wetlands affects resource exploitation, pollution, and water use. Long-term changes in the frequency, intensity, timing, and distribution of hurricanes and tropical storms will likely affect biotic functions (e.g., community structure, natural selection, extinction rates, and biodiversity) as well as underlying processes such as nutrient cycling and primary and secondary productivity. Reliable predictions of global-change impacts on coastal wetlands will require better understanding of the linkages among terrestrial, aquatic, wetland, atmospheric, oceanic, and human components. Developing this comprehensive understanding of the ecological ramifications of global change will necessitate close coordination among scientists from multiple disciplines and a balanced mixture of appropriate scientific approaches. For example, insights may be gained through the careful design and implementation of broad-scale comparative studies that incorporate salient patterns and processes, including treatment of anthropogenic influences. Well-designed, broad-scale comparative studies could serve as the scientific framework for developing relevant and focused long-term ecological research, monitoring programs, experiments, and modeling studies. Two conceptual models of broad-scale comparative research for assessing ecological responses to climate change are presented: utilizing space-for-time substitution coupled with long-term studies to assess impacts of rising sea level and disturbance on coastal wetlands, and utilizing the moisture-continuum model for assessing the effects of global change and associated shifts in moisture regimes on wetland ecosystems. Increased understanding of climate change will require concerted scientific efforts aimed at facilitating interdisciplinary research, enhancing data and information management, and developing new funding strategies.
A multidisciplinary team of researchers from the humanities and social sciences, including geographers, sociologists, and economists, worked together to develop a tool for evaluating coastal zone vulnerability. The results of this collaboration are presented in this article. Clearly, the vulnerability of the coastal zone is exacerbated by the combination of increasing socioeconomic stakes and high-level natural risks that come together in this limited geographical area. Whereas natural dynamics make the shoreline intrinsically mobile, with, in most cases, a tendency to drift inland, the evolving human activity in this zone adheres to a contrary logic; it progresses toward the sea, often working to define the coastline permanently through seawalls and jetties, for example. This highly developed coastal area is today at risk, the result of telescoping natural and anthropogenic forces. Given the risk, the notion of sustainable coastal development within the framework of integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) needs to be considered. If truth be told, the socioeconomic breaking point has apparently already been reached at several sites, where the cost of defending the coastline sometimes exceeds both the value of the property threatened and the financial means of the various local authorities, particularly the coastal communities. Certain imminent dangers have forced municipal governments to take emergency measures and the national government to resort to expropriation. Evaluating the risks of erosion and submersion thus appears to be an inevitable part of any forward-looking, strategic approach to coastal zone management. The method presented in this paper permits coastline vulnerability to erosion and submersion to be analyzed and evaluated from several different angles: the exposure to risk, whi< ch concentrates on the hazards and the stakes; the management of risk, which seeks to minimize risk through public policies of prevention and restoration; the remembrance of risk, which works to learn from past hazardous events; and the perception of risk, which focuses on how the different actors and users perceive the diverse risks. From these four approaches to risk analysis come five factors - hazards, stakes, management, events, and perceptions. Each one is analyzed and evaluated on a separate grid, facilitating the development of vulnerability indicators from detailed lists of descriptors. Elaborated in collaboration with risk managers and local authorities (elected officials), these grids are designed to become a decision support tool within the ICZM framework. Undertaken as part of the French National Coastal Environment Program, this research seeks to promote coastal risk management within a more integrated coastal zone management approach. Sea level rise (SLR) as a result of global warming has an impact on the increasing inundation on the coastal area. Nowadays, Semarang coastal area in Indonesia is already subject to coastal hazard due to tidal inundation and land subsidence. The impact of the inundation is predicted to be even more severe with the scenario of sea level rise. This paper concentrates on the risk assessment to the population, land use, and monetary losses as a result of coastal inundation under enhanced sea level rise. This paper uses the scenario of the depth of inundation to generate coastal inundation model using GIS-Technology. Anticipatory issues including methodology development for hazard assessment would be necessary for Semarang coastal area, and therefore, geo-information technology can be considered as a useful tool to rapidly assess the impact of the coastal hazard and evaluate the economic losses.2 Tidal inundation by high tide under enhanced land subsidence is a damaging phenomenon and a major threat to the Semarang urban area in Indonesia. It impacts on economic activities, as well as the cost of an emergency program and causes interruption of pubic services, danger of infectious diseases and injury to human lives. This study examines a spatial analysis tool on the GIS-raster system for the tidal inundation mapping based on the subsidence-benchmark data and modified detail digital elevation model. Neighborhood operation and iteration model as a spatial analysis tool have been applied in order to calculate the encroachment of the tidal inundation on the coastal area. The resulting map shows that the tidal flood spreads to the lowland area and causes the inundation of coastal settlement, infrastructure, as well as productive agricultural land, i.e., the fish-pond area. The monitoring of the vulnerable area due to the tidal inundation under the scenario of extended land subsidence plays an important role in long-term coastal zone management in Semarang. Climate change represents a significant threat to global biodiversity and ecosystem integrity. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which has been ratified by 118 nations and came into force in 1994, has amongst its aims the protection of ecosystems. This paper reviews the relevant text in the Convention and gives an overview of scientific efforts to provide policy-makers with the necessary information on ecosystem impacts. The sensitivity of different types of ecosystem to climatic change is discussed and the concepts of ecological limits and thresholds are addressed and examples given. The paper concludes there is a need for a better understanding of the impacts of climate change on ecosystem resilience in order to maintain biological diversity and respond to the needs of policymakers in implementing the UNFCCC. Recommendations are made for increased research effort, including increased resolution of climate models, better predictive capacity at a regional level for within- and between-year rainfall patterns, seasonality and extreme events. Collaborative monitoring programs, including long-term ecological research along climate gradients, are proposed for 4 biomes: coastal wetlands, montane ecosystems, coral reefs and Arctic ecosystems.G Palynomorph assemblages from South Carolina salt marshes were analyzed from high marsh, low marsh, and salt panne zones. High marsh zones, dominated by Juncus roemerianus, consistently had a distinctive palynomorphic signature, whereas this was not the case for assemblages from low marsh and salt panne zones. The Juncus environment was distinguishable from all others by the following parameters: 1) higher palynomorph diversity (nearly double the taxonomic diversity present in the other types), 2) the presence of a high percentage (over 10% of the palynomorph count) of Fungal Spore Type A, and 3) the presence of Atrotorquata lineata, a fungal species that was found solely in sediments beneath Juncus marshes. Locating the positions of Juncus environments in cores should allow one to trace the rise and fall of sea level over time. The tide record between 1970 and 2003 for Durban, South Africa, is analysed to determine the extent of recent linear and nonlinear sea-level trends in the light of predicted global sea-level rise. Given the stability of the adjacent land mass, Durban is ideally suited to test global sea-level change. The linear trends of monthly mean sea level revealed a sea-level rise of 2.7 +/- 0.05 mm/yr and the yearly mean sea-level trend revealed a rise of 2.4 +/- 0.29 mm/yr. Nonlinear trends varied between -1 mm and +8 mm/yr. These findings are similar to recently published results of global sea-level rise calculations over the last ten years derived from worldwide tide gauge and TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter measurements, which range between 2.4 and 3.2 mm/yr. Global climate change is frequently considered a major conservation threat. The Earth's climate has already warmed by 0.5 degrees C over the past century, and recent studies show that it is possible to detect the effects of a changing climate on ecological systems. This suggests that global change may be a current and future conservation threat. Changes in recent decades are apparent at all levels of ecological organizations: population and life-history changes, shifts in geographic range, changes in species composition of communities, and changes in the structure and functioning of ecosystems. These ecological effects can be linked to recent population declines adn to both local and global extinctions of species. Although it is impossible to prove that climate change is the cause of these ecological effects, these findings have important implications for conservation biology. It is no longer safe to assume that all of a species' historic range remains suitable. In drawing attention to the importance of climate change as a current threat to species, these studies emphasize the need for current conservation efforts to consider climate change in both in situ conservation and reintroduction efforts. Additional threats will emerge as climate continues to change, especially as climate interacts with other stressors such as habitat fragmentation. These studies can contribute to preparations for future challenges by providing valuable input to models and direct examples of how species respond to climate change.( Scientific knowledge is central to "good" governance of coastal spaces: developing methods through which the complexities of the coastal zone can be understood by stakeholders to improve the sustainable management of coastal systems. Enhancing our knowledge of the range of processes that shape coastal spaces and define the total behavioural environment of the system remains a primary challenge for the coastal research community. However, this article raises the argument that current approaches to Integrated Coastal Zone Management ( ICZM) -the preferred governing framework for the coastal environment, do not give sufficient emphasis to this fundamental need. Improving the basic scientific knowledge that underpins policymaking at the coast is argued to be urgently needed. Issues such as that of developing a communality of the purpose and approach bet< ween stakeholders within the coastal zone ( through conflict resolution and access to information, for example) seem to claim the rights of the integrated management research agenda. However, the very nature of ICZM as "worthwhile coastal management" requires that integrated management represents more than a governing framework. Successful integration in coastal management must also be underpinned by knowledge of the integrated behavior of the system. Science has an increasingly marginalized position within ICZM and as a result geographers, contributing knowledge of the patterns and processes of the human and environmental landscapes, are also becoming a disappearing breed in integrated coastal management.x A coherent approach to structuring reference units for coastal vulnerability analysis is often required for large-scale analyses of the coastal system. However, a review of existing spatial reference frameworks within vulnerability analyses demonstrates that our use of coastal space within large-scale models remains relatively poor. This paper examines a series of challenges to spatial modeling that have emerged from the development of a national to global impact tool, DIVA (Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment). The paper addresses how best to utilize the limited data to develop a reference framework for modeling vulnerability within the global coastal environment. It outlines the approach to spatial modeling that has been developed for use within the DIVA tool: segmenting the coastal zone into a series of relatively homogenous reference units at the scale of DIVA, based on the behavior of the physical, social, and economic systems within the zone. The importance of effective spatially defined models is emphasized within the paper. Encouraging greater spatial recognition and definition of the behavioral environment of the coast is critical to modeling space within the coastal system. By decreasing spatial uncertainties in the creation of reference units for vulnerability analysis, the accuracy of modeling within large-scale coastal environments can be further improved. Settlements in coastal lowlands are especially vulnerable to risks resulting from climate change, yet these lowlands are densely settled and growing rapidly. In this paper, we undertake the first global review of the population and urban settlement patterns in the Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ), defined here as the contiguous area along the coast that is less than 10 metres above sea level. Overall, this zone covers 2 per cent of the world's land area but contains 10 per cent of the world's population and 13 per cent of the world's urban population. A disproportionate number of the countries with a large share of their population in this zone are small island countries, but most of the countries with large populations in the zone are large countries with heavily populated delta regions. On average, the Least Developed Countries have a higher share of their population living in the zone (14 per cent) than do OECD countries (10 per cent), with even greater disparities in the urban shares (21 per cent compared to I I per cent). Almost two-thirds of urban settlements with populations greater than 5 million fall, at least partly, in the zone. In some countries (most notably China), urbanization is driving a movement in population towards the coast. Reducing the risk of disasters related to climate change in coastal settlements will require a combination of mitigation, migration and settlement modification. As humans increasingly occupy and modify marginal landscapes, previously unobserved long timescale, emergent behaviors related to interactions between natural processes and human agency are possible. Barrier islands, which are low-lying strips of sand separated from a coast by lagoons, cut by inlets and topped by sand dunes, have been significantly modified through the development of tourist resorts. Resorts and barrier islands are dynamically coupled through storm damage and beach erosion, and measures taken to prevent or mitigate them. In response to rising sea level, a natural barrier island migrates steadily up the continental shelf. In contrast, we show that in a novel numerical model-coupling barrier island processes with resort development, storm damage, and hazard mitigation, policy decisions driven by market dynamics destabilize barrier island response to rising sea level, giving rise to emergent, episodic boom and bust cycles, which alternate in phase alongshore, and less frequent, regionally extensive resort destruction events. Developed barrier islands are precariously maintained at lower elevations and further offshore than their natural counterparts, a situation exacerbated by insurance, which can lead to island inundation. Our results suggest that coastal areas that have recently instituted protection measures eventually will experience a widespread upsurge in damage if these practices are sustained, even in the absence of climate-change-induced increased storminess.$ The fate of coastlines and their human settlements under the effects of global climate change will depend critically on the nonlinear dynamics of and feedbacks between shoreline processes and human agency. This hypothesis is explored on the barrier island coastline of Ocean City and Assateague Island National Seashore, Maryland, using a model-coupling natural coastal processes, including erosion, accretion, island overwash, alongshore sediment transport, dune growth and migration, inlet migration and ebb tidal delta growth to economics of tourist resort development through storm damage and beach and dune replenishment. Initiating the model in 1845, the RMS difference between model and measurements of the shoreline position in 2001 is 84.97 m compared to a net onshore migration of 472.2 m and the RMS difference between modeled and measured hotel room density in 2001 is 2950 rooms km(-1) compared to a net gain of 28,824 rooms km(-1). Simulations to year 3400 for a rate of sea level rise of 3.5 mm a(-1) show a steady state barrier island position 158 m further offshore and 0.54 m lower in elevation compared to its natural counterpart. Changing the rate of sea level rise to 10.5 mm a(-1) increases these differences to 288 m and 0.76 m. Changing storminess by increasing the standard deviation of storm size 50% diminishes coupling between resorts and barriers, bringing the natural and coupled attractors into near coincidence. These results suggest that predicted increases in the rate of sea level rise will lead to enhanced vulnerability for Ocean City.v Two global coupled climate models show that even if the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere had been stabilized in the year 2000, we are already committed to further global warming of about another half degree and an additional 320% sea level rise caused by thermal expansion by the end of the 21st century. Projected weakening of the meridional. overturning circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean does not lead to a net cooling in Europe. At any given point in time, even if concentrations are stabilized, there is a commitment to future climate changes that will be greater than those we have already observed. Climate change scenario simulations with the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3), a global coupled climate model, show that if concentrations of all greenhouse gases (GHGs) could have been stabilized at the year 2000, the climate system would already be committed to 0.4 degrees C more warming by the end of the twenty-first century. Committed sea level rise by 2100 is about an order of magnitude more, percentage-wise,. compared to sea level rise simulated in the twentieth century. This increase in the model is produced only by thermal expansion of seawater, and does not take into account melt from ice sheets and glaciers. which could at least double that number. Several tenths of a degree of additional warming occurs in the model for the next 200 yr in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B1 and A1B scenarios after stabilization in the year 2100, but with twice as much < sea level rise after 100 yr, and doubling yet again in the next 100 yr to 2300. At the end of the twenty-first century, the warming in the tropical Pacific for the A2, A1B, and B1 scenarios resembles an El Nino-like response, likely due to cloud feedbacks in the model as shown in an earlier version. Greatest warming occurs at high northern latitudes and over continents. The monsoon regimes intensify somewhat in the future warmer climate, with decreases of sea level pressure at high latitudes and increases in the subtropics and parts of the midlatitudes. There is a weak summer midlatitude soil moisture drying in this model as documented in previous models. Sea ice distributions in both hemispheres are somewhat over-extensive, but with about the right ice thickness at the end of the twentieth century. Future decreases in sea ice with global warming are proportional to the temperature response from the forcing scenarios, with the high forcing scenario, A2, producing an ice-free Arctic in summer by the year 2100.
Climate change impacts on African human settlements arise from a number of climate change-related causes, notably sea level changes, impacts on water resources, extreme weather events, food security, increased health risks from vector borne diseases, and temperature-related morbidity in urban environments. Some coastlines and river deltas of Africa have densely populated low-lying areas, which would be affected by a rise in sea level. Other coastal settlements will be subjected to increased coastal erosion. Recent flooding in East Africa highlighted the vulnerability of flood plain settlements and the need to develop adaptive strategies for extreme weather events management and mitigation. In the semi arid and arid zones many settlements are associated with inland drainage water sources. Increases in drought will enhance water supply related vulnerabilities. Inter-basin and international water transfers raise the need for adequate legal frameworks that ensure equity among participating nations. Similarly, water supply and irrigation reservoirs in seasonal river catchments might fail, leading to poor sanitation in urban areas as well as food shortage. Hydroelectric power generation could be restricted in drought periods, and where it is a major contributor to the energy budget, reduced power generation could lead to a multiplicity of other impacts. States are advised to develop other sources of renewable energy. Temperature changes will lead to altered distribution of disease vectors such as mosquitoes, making settlements currently free of vector borne diseases vulnerable. Rapid breeding of the housefly could create a menace associated with enteric disorders, especially in conditions of poor sanitation. The dry savannahs of Africa are projected as possible future food deficit areas. Recurrent crop failures would lead to transmigration into urban areas. Pastoralists are likely to undertake more trans-boundary migrations and probably come into conflict with settled communities. Adaptive measures will involve methods of coastal defences (where applicable), a critical review of the energy sector, both regionally and nationally, a rigorous adherence to city hygiene procedures, an informed agricultural industry that is capable of adapting to changing climate in terms of cropping strategies, and innovations in environment design to maximise human comfort at minimum energy expenditure. In the savannah and arid areas water resource management systems will be needed to optimise water resource use and interstate co-operation where such resources are shared. Climate change issues discussed here raise the need for state support for more research and education in impacts of climate change on human settlements in Africa. Combustion of coal, oil, and natural gas, and to a lesser extent deforestation, land-cover change, and emissions of halocarbons and other greenhouse gases, are rapidly increasing the atmospheric concentrations of climate-warming gases. The warming of approximately 0.1-0.2 degrees C per decade that has resulted is very likely the primary cause of the increasing loss of snow cover and Arctic sea ice, of more frequent occurrence of very heavy precipitation, of rising sea level, and of shifts in the natural ranges of plants and animals. The global average temperature is already approximately 0.8 degrees C above its preindustrial level, and present atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases will contribute to further warming of 0.5-1 degrees C as equilibrium is re-established. Warming has been and will be greater in mid and high latitudes compared with low latitudes, over land compared with oceans, and at night compared with day. As emissions continue to increase, both warming and the commitment to future warming are presently increasing at a rate of approximately 0.2 degrees C per decade, with projections that the rate of warming will further increase if emission controls are not put in place. Such warming and the associated changes are likely to result in severe impacts on key societal and environmental support systems. Present estimates are that limiting the increase in global average surface temperature to no more than 2-2.5 degrees C above its 1750 value of approximately 15 degrees C will be required to avoid the most catastrophic, but certainly not all, consequences of climate change. Accomplishing this will require reducing emissions sharply by 2050 and to near zero by 2100. This can only be achieved if: (1) developed nations move rapidly to demonstrate that a modern society can function without reliance on technologies that release carbon dioxide (CO2) and other non-CO2 greenhouse gases to the atmosphere; and (2) if developing nations act in the near-term to sharply limit their non-CO2 emissions while minimizing growth in CO2 emissions, and then in the long-term join with the developed nations to reduce all emissions as cost-effective technologies are developed. Coastal numerical models have been used successfully for many marine analyses as well as for practical engineering applications. When a model is adjusted and verified for a particular coastal region, it may also be used for predicting potential impact due to sea level rise for that region. Applications include coastal flood risk analysis, alteration of long-term coastal sediment transport direction, and possible impact on the ecosystem due to changes in the coastal circulation pattern induced by the rise of mean sea level. This paper presents some examples for such applications including storm surge and near-shore tidal residual circulation patterns due to sea level rise. The paper presents a brief background discussion on the coastal hydrodynamic process A three-dimensional numerical model of the China Sea is used as an example for the analyses. Results from the numerical experiment indicate sea level rise may induce long-term changes in the near-shove tidal circulation patterns resulted from the alteration of residual currents, Rise in sea level would also cause more areas to he flooded due to storm surge. Existing sea walls and dikes designed for 100 year storm would be exposed to higher risks in the face of rising mean sea level. Modeling results would provide coastal designers and managers useful tools for developing vulnerability assessments and adaptation strategies. As an example the paper presents some coastal flood risk analyses in which numerical modeling is combined with statistical typhoon landfall data over the China Sea coast.j Tropical coral reefs are charismatic ecosystems that house a significant proportion of the world's marine biodiversity. Their valuable goods and services are fundamental to the livelihood of large coastal populations in the tropics. The health of many of the world's coral reefs, and the goods and services they provide, have already been severely compromised, largely due to over-exploitation by a range of human activities. These local-scale impacts, with the appropriate government instruments, support and management actions, can potentially be controlled and even ameliorated. Unfortunately, other human actions (largely in countries outside of the tropic< s), by changing global climate, have added additional global-scale threats to the continued survival of present-day coral reefs. Moderate warming of the tropical oceans has already resulted in an increase in mass coral bleaching events, affecting nearly all of the world's coral reef regions. The frequency of these events will only increase as global temperatures continue to rise. Weakening of coral reef structures will be a more insidious effect of changing ocean chemistry, as the oceans absorb part of the excess atmospheric carbon dioxide. More intense tropical cyclones, changed atmospheric and ocean circulation patterns will all affect coral reef ecosystems and the many associated plants and animals. Coral reefs will not disappear but their appearance, structure and community make-up will radically change. Drastic greenhouse gas mitigation strategies are necessary to prevent the full consequences of human activities causing such alterations to coral reef ecosystems. Identification of the distinctive circulation patterns of storminess on the Atlantic margin of Europe forms the main objective of this study; dealing with storm frequency, intensity and tracking. The climatology of the extratropical cyclones that affect this region has been examined for the period 1940-1998. Coastal meteorological data from Ireland to Spain have been linked to the cyclone history for the North Atlantic in the analysis of storm records for European coasts. The study examines the evolution in the occurrence of storms since the 1940s and also their relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Results indicate a seasonal shift in the wind climate, with regionally more severe winters and calmer summers established. This pattern appears to be linked to a northward displacement in the main North Atlantic cyclone track. An experiment with the ECHAM4 A-GCM at high resolution (T 106) has also been used to model the effect of a greenhouse gases induced warming climate on the climatology of coastal storms in the region. The experiment consists of (1), a 30-year control time-slice representing present-day equivalent CO2 concentrations and (2), a 30-year perturbed period corresponding to a time when the radiative forcing has doubled in terms of equivalent C02 concentrations. The boundary conditions have been obtained from an atmosphere-ocean coupled OA-GCM simulation at low horizontal resolution. An algorithm was developed to allow the identification of individual cyclone movements in selected coastal zones. For most of the northern part of the study region, covering Ireland and Scotland, results describe the establishment by ca. 2060 of a tendency for fewer but more intense storms. The impacts of these changes in storminess for the vulnerability of European Atlantic coasts are considered. For low-lying, exposed and 'soft' sedimentary coasts, as in Ireland, these changes in storminess are likely to result in significant localised increases in coastal erosion. Stratigraphic hiatuses and solution unconformities in the subsurface of Enewetak Atoll, northern Marshall Islands, record periods of atoll emergence during low stands of sea level. Changes in sea level are also recorded in the atoll subsurface by variations in the rate of sediment accumulation relative to the subsidence rate of the underlying volcanic edifice. Past sea levels can be derived from atoll stratigraphy by correcting the present depth of dated subsurface horizons for thermal subsidence and lithospheric flexure since the time of deposition. A correction for depositional paleodepth may also be necessary. As a result of erosion and nondeposition during periods of emergence, the history of sea level derived in this manner is discontinuous. Past sea levels derived from atoll stratigraphy can only be estimated to within +/- 50 m relative to present sea level owing to uncertainties in the corrections for subsidence and flexure; however, the minimum magnitude of sea level falls estimated from stratigraphic hiatuses can be estimated to within +/- 10 m. Owing to limited fossil-based age resolution, only long-term sea level trends can be deduced from sediments dated by means of biostratigraphy. Based on the biostratigraphic ages of subsurface horizons at Enewetak, we can discern very little long-term change in sea level from late Eocene through late Oligocene, a rise to approximately 110 m above present sea level in the early Miocene, a long-term fall of approximately 170 m through middle and late Miocene time, and a long-term rise of approximately 60 m from the end of the Miocene to present. Resolution of the sea level history recorded beneath mid-ocean atolls may be improved by determining the age of shallow-marine carbonates by means of strontium isotope stratigraphy. Our interpretation of past sea levels based on Sr-87/Sr-86 chronostratigraphy from Enewetak confirms the long-term sea level trends inferred from biostratigraphic subsurface ages. In addition, we interpret three Oligocene sea level falls with minimum magnitudes of 30-50 m at approximately 35, 33-30, and approximately 25 Ma and four Miocene sea level falls greater than 30-95 m at 16-14, approximately 12, approximately 10, and approximately 5 Ma. These estimates of the timing and magnitude of Oligocene and Miocene sea level changes, derived from Enewetak Atoll stratigraphy, are compared with sea level histories derived from continental margin stratigraphy and from ice volume changes inferred from deep-sea foraminifera delta-O-18 records. Asia is the largest continent. It lies within an active tectonic zone and is subjected to active monsoons, frequent tropical cyclones and huge rivers with abundant sediment loads. In this geographical setting, several background factors influence coastal processes and evolution of the coasts of China. Tectonic activity influences the distribution of river-borne sediments in the coastal zone leading to formation of wide strand plains with thick wedges of Quaternary strata in the subsidence belts, and narrow strand plains with thin Quaternary strata in the uplift belts. These factors essentially determine the distribution patterns of sandy and muddy coasts, which differ in response to relative sea level (RSL) rise. Relative sea level rise, including components of global sea level rise, tectonic subsidence, ground subsidence and trend rise of river level, is more important for local vulnerability assessment than global sea level rise. Coastal erosion is induced not only by relative sea level rise but also by deficit of sediments delivered to the coast. Coastal wetland still tends to regenerate around large delta areas where fine-grained river-borne sediments are abundant. Although 12,000 km of dykes have been constructed along the Chinese coast and are reinforced and heightened periodically, superimposition of climatic extreme events, such as typhoons with a high storm surge and heavy precipitation during spring tides in the flooding season, creates serious economic and human loss every year. Building of large reservoirs on major rivers leads to reduction in discharge and suspended load, which can induce accelerated coastal erosion and reduction in wetland renewal, thereby exacerbating vulnerability of the coastal zone. However, in comparison to the Asia-Pacific region, the Chinese coastal zone is classified as a low vulnerability area based upon the vulnerability assessment indices of NICHOLLS and DE LA VEGA-LEINERT(2000). The present Cenozoic era is an 'icehouse' episode characterized by a low sea level. Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the human race has been emitting greenhouse gases, increasing the global atmospheric temperature, and causing a rise in sea level. If emissions continue to increase at the present rate, average global temperatures may rise by 1.5-degrees-C by the year 2050, accompanied by a rise of about 30 cm in sea level. However, the prediction of future climatic conditions and sea level is hampered by the difficulty in modelling the interactions between the lithosphere, kryosphere, biosphere and atmosphere; in addition, the buffering capacity of our planet is still poorly understood. As scie< ntists cannot offer unambiguous answers to simple questions, sorcerer's apprentices fill in the gaps, presenting plans to save planet without inconveniencing us. The geological record can help us to learn about the regulation mechanisms of our planet, many of which are connected with or expressed as sea level changes. Global changes in sea level are either tectono-eustatic or glacio-eustatic. Plate tectonic processes strongly control sea levels and climate in the long term. There is a strong feed-back mechanism between sea level and climate; both can influence and determine each other. Although high sea levels are a powerful climatic buffer, falling sea levels accelerate climatic accentuation, the growth of the polar ice caps and will hence amplify the drop in sea level. Important sources of fossil greenhouse gases are botanic CO2 production, CO2 released by volcanic activity, and water vapour. The latter is particularly important when the surface area of the sea increases during a rise in sea level ('maritime greenhouse effect'). A 'volcanogenic greenhouse effect' (release of volcanogenic CO2) is possibly not equally important, as intense volcanic activity may take place both during icehouse episodes as well as during greenhouse episodes. The hydrosphere, land vegetation and carbonate platforms are major CO2 buffers which may both take up and release CO2. CO2 can be released from the ocean due to changes in the pCO2 caused by growth of coral reefs and by uptake of CO2-rich freshwater from karst provinces. Efficient sinks of CO2 are the weathering products of silicate rocks; long-term sinks are organic deposits caused by regional anoxic events which preferrably develop during sea level rises and highstands; and coal-bearing strata. Deposition of limestone also removes CO2 from the atmospheric-hydrospheric cycle at a long term. Biotic crises are often related to either sea-level lows or sea-level highs. Long-term sea-level lows, characteristic of glacial periods, indicate cooling as major cause of extinction. During verly long-lasting greenhouse episodes the sea level is very high, climate and circulation systems are stable and biotic crises often develop as a consequence of oxygen depletion. On land, niche-splitting, complex food web structures and general overspecialization of biota will occur. Whether the crisis is caused by a single anoxic event (e.g. in the Late Devonian) or a disturbance by an asteroid impact (e.g. the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary), it will only trigger total collapse of an ecosystem if a large part of it was already in decline. The regulatory mechanisms and buffers are thermodynamically extremely efficient if they are given sufficient time in which to deploy their power. However, after major catastrophes the re-establishment of successful ecosystems will take millions of years. The present rate of sea level and associated temperature rise is much too fast to be compensated and buffered by the network of natural controls. It is likely that the transitional time towards a new steady state will be an extremely variable and chaotic episode of unpredictable duration. Relative sea-level change along the Italian coast and adjacent seas-the combined result of eustasy, glacio-hydro-isostasy and vertical tectonic motion-exhibits considerable spatial and temporal variability throughout the Holocene. The tectonic contribution can be evaluated from the elevation of MIS 5.5 shoreline-markers that are well developed in many localities and the custatic and isostatic contributions can be predicted from models of ice sheets and earth rheology. Discrepancies between observed Holocene sea levels and model predicted values provide the information for refining the model parameters, including the tectonic rates of vertical movement. Recent and new Holocene and MIS 5.5 information from 30 sites in Italy has been evaluated and compared with model results to calibrate the predictive model. The resulting parameters for the earth rheology and for the eustatic (ice-volume equivalent) sea-level function are consistent with results from regions outside of the Mediterranean and reflect global values. Using the calibrated model parameters the relative sea-level change due to eustasy and the concomitant isostasy is predicted across the central Mediterranean region. Holocene tectonic rates of vertical motion are also given for the Italian coastal zone. At most sites where the MIS 5.5 shoreline occurs above or below its 'tectonically stable' position, the inferred rates of vertical crustal displacements are consistent with the assumption that average rates for the past similar to 125,000 years are comparable to the average Holocene rates, but at some locations in eastern Sicily and southern Calabria the Holocene rates exceed the longer term average rates. Many researchers assume a proportional relationship among the atmospheric CO, concentration, temperature, and sea level. Thus, the rate of sea-level rise should increase in concert with the documented exponential increase in CO, Although sea surface temperature has increased in places over the past century and short-term sea level rose abruptly during the 1990s, it is difficult to demonstrate a proportional relationship using existing geologic or historic records. Tide gauge records in the United States cover too short a time interval to verify acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise, although multicentury tide gauge and staff records from the Netherlands and Sweden suggest a mid-19th-century acceleration in sea-level rise. Reconstructions of sea-level changes for the past 1000 years derived using benthic foraminifer data from salt marshes along the East Coast of the United States suggest an increased rate of relative sea-level rise beginning in the 1600s. Geologic records of relative sea-level rise for the past 6000 years are available for several sites along the US East Coast from C-14-dated basal peat below salt marshes and estuarine sediments. When these three scales of sea-level variation are integrated, adjusted for postglacial isostatic movement, and replotted, the range of variation in sea level suggested by basal peat ages is within +/- 1 meter of the long-term trend. The reconstruction from Long Island Sound data shows a linear rise in sea level beginning in the mid-1600s at a rate consistent with the historic record of mean high water. Long-term tide gauge records from Europe and North America show similar trends since the mid-19th century. There is no clear proportional exponential increase in the rate of sea-level rise. If proportionality exists among sea level, atmospheric CO, and temperature, there may be a significant time lag before an anthropogenic increase in the rate of sea-level rise occurs. The Belgian coastal plain and the Schelde estuary are threatened by sea-level rise. While of great economic importance with a threatened population of some 0.8 million (of a total population of 10 million), assessments of these risks are limited. This article describes the physical characteristics of the coast and undertakes a qualitative interpretation of its vulnerability. Low-lying polders are the most vulnerable to sea-level rise where a major proble m is water drainage during rainy periods; their varying vulnerability to sea-level rise and increase in rain intensity is assessed, including the relationship between drainage levels and saltwater seepage. Freshwater lenses developed within the dunes are also vulnerable to sea-level rise, leading to threats to drinking water supplies from saltwater intrusion. Belgian coastal defence structures and their effectiveness are discussed. Historical sea-level rise during the past century, wave and wind data, and the evolution of erosion and accretion along the coast are interpreted. For Antwerpen, a harbour city on the river Schelde, the effects of sea-level rise are far from clear. Included here are historical data on changes in tidal amplitude during the 20th century. Future research needs should focus on the quantitative interpretation of data to understand the effect of sea-level rise on beach erosion, flood risk, and fresh and salt groundwater distribution. Furthe< rmore, a thorough socio-economic study should be undertaken to assess the vulnerability of the Belgian coast and the Schelde estuary. Managed realignment-the deliberate process of realigning river, estuary or coastal defences-is increasingly seen as a key element to sustainable long term flood and coastal management in the UK and other parts of the world, given current trends of sea level rise, and increasing costs of flood and coastal defence. This paper presents results of an extensive consultation of key stakeholders in England and Wales on what they consider to be the main drivers, of and obstacles to, managed realignment. It reveals why managed realignment has not taken place on a larger scale so far, and suggests new directions for a long-term strategic approach to river and coastal flood management.! The potential effects of sea-level rise have heightened growing concerns over the effectiveness of the existing legal and administrative frameworks operating in the coastal zone. Of particular significance has been concern over the lack of coordination between coastal planning and coastal defence, together with the prevailing view in the past that coastal erosion and flooding are not planning issues. This paper outlines a number of the ways in which the Department of the Environment and local authorities have begun to address these issues.O This paper examines the response of the climate of Small Island States (SIS) to transient increases in anthropogenic radiative forcing due to increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and/or sulfate aerosols using the data generated in a set of numerical experiments performed with a range of coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models. Five of the 7 models considered in our validation exercise are found to have fair skill as regards their ability to simulate the broad features of present-day observed surface climatological features over the SIS in the Indian Ocean, the Mediterranean Sea, the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. The transient experiments with these models, which include the time-varying future anthropogenic radiative forcings, have been used here to develop regional projections of future climate change. An area-averaged annual mean warming of ca 2degreesC or higher for the 2050s and ca 3degreesC or higher for the 2080s are projected for the SIS as a consequence of increases in atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. In general, seasonal variations of the projected surface warming over the SIS are minimal. No significant change in diurnal temperature range is likely with an increase in surface temperatures. An increase in mean temperature would be accompanied by an increase in the frequency of extremely high temperatures. The aerosol forcing will only marginally reduce the surface warming. The models simulate only a marginal change (<10%) in annual mean rainfall over most of the SIS, During the northern hemisphere summer, however, rainfall is projected to decline (except over Pacific Ocean islands). An increase in daily rainfall intensity leading to more heavy rainfall events is also projected. The projected changes in temperature and rainfall could disrupt the terrestrial and marine ecosystems in most SIS. An integrated study of vulnerability assessment for SIS based on a better understanding of the precise magnitude of increase in surface air temperature and associated sea level rise is warranted for developing appropriate adaptation strategies. Estonia is a coastal country with a long coastline (3800 km) for which climate change and accelerated sea-level rise are key problems that need to be considered in any future impact assessment. Due to its flat, low-lying coastal zone, any rise in sea level places many coastal ecosystems and recreationally valuable sandy beaches at risk. Milder winters, combined with increased storminess and the absence of sea-ice cover, would exacerbate these impacts. However, isostatic uplift and the distance of coastal settlements from the present coastline could reduce these risks. This paper presents the potential impact of a 1-m global sea-level rise by 2100 if no adaptation is undertaken. Seven representative study areas, characterising all shore types in Estonia, were selected for sea-level rise vulnerability and adaptation assessment. The diverse structure of Estonia's coasts, the rapidly migrating shorelines, and the abundance of small islands were found to complicate reliable predictions regarding climate warming and accelerated sea-level rise. Due to long coastline (3,794 km in total) and extensive low-lying coastal areas, global climate change through sea-level rise will strongly affect the territory of Estonia. A number of valuable natural ecosystems (both, marine and terrestrial) containing rare plant communities often rich in species, but also suitable breeding places for birds will be in danger. Most sandy beaches high in recreative value will disappear. However, isostatic land uplift and location of coastal settlements at a distance from the present coastline reduce the rate of risk. Four case study areas characterizing all the shore types of Estonia have been selected for sea-level rise vulnerability and adaptation assessment. Preliminary results and estimates of vulnerability to 1.0 m sea-level rise by 2075 for two case study areas - Hiiumaa, West-Estonian Archipelago and Parnu-Ikla, south-western coast of the mainland are presented in this paper.z Climate change will bring about a sea change in environmental conditions worldwide during the 21th century. In particular, most of the extreme events and natural disaster regimes prevailing today will be transformed, thus exposing innumerable natural and socio-economic systems to novel risks that will be difficult to cope with. This crucial component of vulnerability to anthropogenic interference with the climate system is analyzed using powerful pattern recognition methods from statistical physics. The analysis is of intermediate character, with respect to spatial scale and complexity level respectively, and therefore allows a rapid regional assessment for any area of interest. The approach is based on a comprehensive inventory of all those ecological and socioeconomic assets in a region that are significantly sensitive to extreme weather (and climate) events. Advanced cluster analysis techniques are then employed to derive from the inventory a set of thematic maps that succinctly summarize - and visualize - the differential vulnerabilities characteristic of the area in question. This information can prepare decision makers and the general public for the climate change hazards to be faced and facilitates a precautionary climate change risk management. The semiquantitative methodology described and applied here can be easily extended to other aspects of climate change assessment. This study presents the results of the impact assessment analysis of the coastal zones of Cochin along the southwest coast of India. The climatological cycle of sea level derived for the region for the period 1939-2003 has shown a range of about 17 cm. From the results obtained on the coastal sedimentary environments, it is found that climate-induced sea level rise scenarios will bring profound effects. It is also revealed that the mean beach slope and relief play a vital role in land loss of the region. The local relief of coastal zone will decrease as sea level rises, thus increasing the percentage of land above mean sea level subjected to episodic inundations. Results of the yearly probability of damages indicated the urgency to upgrade the existing designs of coastal protection structures. A brief characterisation of the issues on infrastructure and uncertainties in policy planning also are attempted.Q
Climate warming due to the enhanced greenhouse effect is expected to have a significant impact on natural environment and human activity in high latitudes. Mostly, it should have a positive effect on human activity. The main threats in Estonia that could be connected with sea-level rise are the flooding of coastal areas, erosion of sandy beaches and the destruction of harbour constructions. Possible clima< te change and its negative impacts in the coastal regions of Estonia are estimated in this paper. Climate change scenarios for Estonia were generated using a Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC) and a regional climate change database-SCENanario GENerator (SCENGEN). Three alternative emission scenarios were combined with data from 14 general circulation model experiments. Climate change scenarios for the year 2100 indicate a significant increase in air temperature (by 2.3-4.5 degreesC) and precipitation (by 5-30%) in Estonia. The highest increase is expected to take place during winter and the lowest increase in summer. Due to a long coastline (3794 km) and extensive low-lying coastal areas, global climate change through sea-level rise will strongly affect the territory of Estonia. A number of valuable natural ecosystems will be in danger. These include both marine and terrestrial systems containing rare plant communities and suitable breeding places for birds. Most sandy beaches high in recreational value will disappear. However, isostatic land uplift and the location of coastal settlements at a distance from the present coastline reduce the rate of risk. Seven case study areas characterising all the shore types of Estonia have been selected for sea-level rise vulnerability and adaptation assessment. Results and estimates of vulnerability to 1.0-m sea-level rise by 2100 are presented in this paper. This is the maximum scenario according to which the actually estimated relative sea-level rise would vary from 0.9 m (SW Estonia) to 0.7 m on the north-western coast due to different velocities of land uplift in the studied areas. The longest coastline section recession (6.4 km) would occur on the western coast of the mainland where extensive areas of reed bed and flooded meadows would relocate landwards or disappear. Possible damages in Tallinn, the capital city, would be the greatest compared to the other study areas. The greatest threat to the environment of the Gulf of Finland and the whole Baltic Sea is the dumping site of the former uranium enrichment plant in Sillamae which is situated very close to the coastline and can be easily influenced during storms. Coastal ecosystems respond to sea level and sediment supply change according to complex, three-way interactions between vegetation, hydrology, and sediment transport. While biogeomorphic feedbacks preserve the morphology of intertidal surfaces covered by marshland, we demonstrate with numerical model and field experimentation that temporary disturbance to vegetation facilitates rapid and widespread degradation. Vertical accretion slows in disturbed areas, allowing localized submergence of the marsh platform, tidal prism enlargement, and permanent channel network expansion. Vegetated portions of an episodically disturbed platform accrete more rapidly than rates of relative sea level rise, giving submerging marshland the appearance of maintaining elevation. This feedback between vegetation disturbance and channel erosion, and its effect on platform accretion, may explain peculiar patterns of wetland loss in Europe and North America. In response to climatic warming, eustatic sea level has been predicted to rise by about 50 cm in the next century. While feedbacks between vegetation growth and sediment deposition tend to allow marshes to maintain their morphology under a constant rate of sea level rise, recent observations of marsh deterioration suggest that changes in the rate of sea level rise may induce loss of economically and ecologically important marshland. We have developed a three dimensional model of tidal marsh evolution that couples vegetation growth and sediment transport processes including bed accretion and wave erosion. We use the model to simulate the response of marshes and tidal flats along the Fraser River Delta, British Columbia to 100 yr forecasts of sea level change. Under low sea level-rise scenarios, the delta and its marshes prograde slightly, consistent with historical measurements. While accretionary processes greatly mediate the response to increased rates of sea level rise, vegetation zones transgress landward under median and high sea level rise rate scenarios. In these scenarios, low marsh erosion and constriction of high marsh vegetation against a dyke at its landward edge result in a 15-35% loss of marshland in the next century. Several important behavioral changes take place after 2050, suggesting that predictions based on field observations and short term model experiments may not adequately characterize (and sometimes underestimate) long-term change. In particular, the replacement of highly productive high marsh vegetation by less productive low marsh vegetation results in continued reduction of the system's total biomass productivity, even as the rate of loss of vegetated area begins to decline. To address the impact of rising sea level in a rapidly submerging Maryland estuarine forest, 15 loblolly pines (Pinus taeda) were cored for dendroecological analysis. The study area is a pure stand of loblolly pine that extends down an elevation gradient into surrounding marsh where dead stumps and snags indicate a retreating forest margin. Although relative sea level has risen considerably and there are dead trees at the forest-marsh interface, there is no associated decline in ring width, making sea level-induced mortality unlikely. Instead, ring width is correlated positively with annual precipitation and winter temperature and negatively with summer temperatures. Although recruitment of new pines was continuous between 1910 and 1930, there has been no more active recruitment except for a small age class established immediately after regional drought. Because recruitment is failing in the present forest despite abundant seedlings and an open canopy, recruitment ability appears to be limited by saturated soils associated with periods of high sea level. We predict that the forest margin will retreat stepwise, following storm-induced mortality, or continuously, following age-related adult mortality. The position of the forest margin is then a function of sea level position, but it represents the failure to recruit new individuals, not the ability of adults to survive a long term rise in sea level.0 The UNEP Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies provides an elaboration of the IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations. This paper presents the concepts and ideas that underpin the chapter Coastal Zones of the UNEP Handbook. Particular emphasis is given to the conceptual framework, which is centered around the concept of vulnerability. Further, the IPCC Common Methodology for Assessing Coastal Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise is evaluated and compared with the Technical Guidelines. One notable difference between the 2 approaches concerns the use of scenarios. In the Common Methodology scenarios are prescribed, while the Technical Guidelines allow users maximum freedom in selecting and developing scenarios. Finally, the paper discusses 3 levels of increasingly complex assessment in coastal zones. As more experience is acquired, coastal databases improve and better analytical tools and techniques are developed, more comprehensive and integrated assessments will become feasible. This paper describes coastal resilience as a measure of the extent to which a coast is able to respond to external pressures without losing actual or potential functions. Such usage of the term gives coastal scientists, planners and managers a new opportunity to express complex coastal dynamics in a simple aggregated form. Coastal resilience has morphological, ecological and socio-economic components, each of which represents another aspect of the coastal system's adaptive capacity to perturbations. Enhancing coastal resilience is increasingly viewed as a cost-effective way to prepare for uncertain future changes while maintaining opportunities for coastal development. The Netherlands has known a long tradition of controlling natural coastal processes by stringent dune management and building hard < sea-defence structures. However, both socio-economic and natural adaptive processes have become constrained owing to the limited availability of land and the diminished coastal resilience that has resulted from technological solutions and legal provisions. The recent study Growing with the Sea proposes to restore natural coastal processes along the Dutch coast and let natural and socio-economic systems interact more dynamically. It explores possibilities of enhancing coastal resilience in The Netherlands by allowing managed retreat in areas where it is environmentally acceptable and reclaiming land in other areas. Many different technologies exist to adapt to natural coastal hazards. These technologies can also play an important part in reducing vulnerability to climate change in coastal zones. Technologies are available to develop information and awareness for adaptation in coastal zones, to plan and design adaptation strategies, to implement them, and to monitor and evaluate their performance. This paper briefly describes these four steps and provides important examples of technologies that can be employed to accomplish them. In addition, it identifies three trends in coastal adaptation and associated technology use: (i) a growing recognition of the benefits of "soft" protection and of the adaptation strategies retreat and accommodate, (ii) an increasing reliance on technologies to develop and manage information, and (iii) an enhanced awareness of the need for coastal adaptation to be appropriate for local natural and socio-economic conditions. Sea-level rise will increase the area covered by hurricane storm surges in coastal zones. This research assesses how patterns of vulnerability to storm-surge flooding could change in Hampton Roads, Virginia as a result of sea-level rise. Physical exposure to storm-surge flooding is mapped for all categories of hurricane, both for present sea level and for future sea-level rise. The locations of vulnerable sub-populations are determined through an analysis and mapping of socioeconomic characteristics commonly associated with vulnerability to environmental hazards and are compared to the flood-risk exposure zones. Scenarios are also developed that address uncertainties regarding future population growth and distribution. The results show that hurricane storm surge presents a significant hazard to Hampton Roads today, especially to the most vulnerable inhabitants of the region. In addition, future sea-level rise, population growth, and poorly planned development will increase the risk of storm-surge flooding, especially for vulnerable people, thus suggesting that planning should steer development away from low-lying coastal and near-coastal zones. Flooding due to sea-level rise resulting from climate may have serious socio-economic consequences. Socio-economic impacts of an accelerated sea-level rise are often described at an aggregated spatial level that is useful for inter-regional or international comparisons, but this is of limited value for determining local effects. Local effects need to be based on the local attributes of coastal vulnerability at the landscape level, especially if effects on the natural environment are of particular interest. In analysing the socio-economics of sea-level rise at the landscape scale, it is also important to consider how humans might adapt to any risks. This paper gives an overview of the methodologies used for socio-economic studies carried out at a regional level and places the results of the studies in the context of waterbirds and the environment. A German study made at the landscape level, using a multidisciplinary approach to deal with the various possible effects of sea-level rise, is discussed. The economic impacts of sea-level rise may be lowered by our ability to adapt to the changes. The options of whether to protect, retreat or accommodate, however, may affect the effects of sea-level rise on coastal habitats and the bird populations that they support. Strengthening of embankments and the creation of storm surge barriers and dams, for example, might lead to the reduction of intertidal and saltmarsh habitats and their associated bird populations. Managed retreat, by contrast, may prevent the loss of these habitats. The decision as to which option is chosen, however, is likely to be largely influenced by local economic considerations. Extreme natural hazards, particularly the hydro-meteorological disasters, are emerging as a cause of major concern in the coastal regions of India and a few other developing countries. These have become more frequent in the recent past, and are taking a heavy toll of life and livelihoods. Low level of technology development in the rural areas together-with social, economic and gender inequities enhance the vulnerability of the largely illiterate, unskilled, and resource-poor fishing, farming and landless labour communities. Their resilience to bounce back to pre-disaster level of normality is highly limited. For the planet Earth at crossroads, the imminent threat, however, is from a vicious spiral among environmental degradation, poverty and climate change-related natural disasters interacting in a mutually reinforcing manner. These, in turn, retard sustainable development, and also wipe out any small gains made thereof. To counter this unacceptable trend, the M.S. Swaminathan Research Foundation has developed a biovillage paradigm and rural knowledge centres for ecotechnological and knowledge empowerment of the coastal communities at risk. Frontier science and technologies blended with traditional knowledge and ecological prudence result in ecotechnologies with pro-nature, pro-poor and pro-women orientation. The rural communities are given training and helped to develop capacity to adopt ecotechnologies for market-driven eco-enterprises. The modern information and communication-based rural knowledge centres largely operated by trained semi-literate young women provide time- and locale-specific information on weather, crop and animal husbandry, market trends and prices for local communities, healthcare, transport, education, etc. to the local communities. The ecotechnologies and time- and locale-specific information content development are need-based and chosen in a 'bottom-up' manner. The use of recombinant DNA technology for genetic shielding of agricultural crops for coastal regions against abiotic stress (induced by the water- and weather-related natural disasters), strengthens the foundations of sustainable agriculture undertaken by the resource poor small farm families.
Estuaries exhibit a wide array of human impacts that can compromise their ecological integrity, because of rapid population growth and uncontrolled development in many coastal regions worldwide. Long-term environmental problems plaguing estuaries require remedial actions to improve the viability and health of these valuable coastal systems. Detailed examination of the effects of pollution inputs, the loss and alteration of estuarine habitat, and the role of other anthropogenic stress indicates that water quality in estuaries, particularly urbanized systems, is often compromised by the overloading of nutrients and organic matter, the influx of pathogens, and the accumulation of chemical contaminants. In addition, the destruction of fringing wetlands and the loss and alteration of estuarine habitats usually degrade biotic communities. Estuaries are characterized by high population densities of microbes, plankton, benthic flora and fauna, and nekton; however, these organisms tend to be highly vulnerable to human activities in coastal watersheds and adjoining embayments. Trends suggest that by 2025 estuaries will be most significantly impacted by habitat loss and alteration associated with a burgeoning coastal population, which is expected to approach six billion people. Habitat destruction has far reaching ecological consequences, modifying the structure, function, and controls of estuarine ecosystems and contributing to the decline of biodiversity. Other anticipated high priority problems are excessive nutrient and sewage inputs to estuaries, principally from land-based< sources. These inputs will lead to the greater incidence of eutrophication as well as hypoxia and anoxia. During the next 25 years, overfishing is expected to become a more pervasive and significant anthropogenic factor, also capable of mediating global-scale change to estuaries. Chemical contaminants, notably synthetic organic compounds, will remain a serious problem, especially in heavily industrialized areas. Freshwater diversions appear to be an emerging global problem as the expanding coastal population places greater demands on limited freshwater supplies for agricultural, domestic, and industrial needs. Altered freshwater flows could significantly affect nutrient loads, biotic community structure, and the trophodynamics of estuarine systems. Ecological impacts that will be less threatening, but still damaging, are those caused by introduced species, sea level rise, coastal subsidence, and debris/litter. Although all of these disturbances can alter habitats and contribute to shifts in the composition of estuarine biotic communities, the overall effect will be partial changes to these ecosystem components. Several strategies may mitigate future impacts.C The aerial videotape-assisted vulnerability analysis (AVVA) technique was combined with various data sets to assess the vulnerability of the coastal zone of The Gambia to sea level rise. Land loss due to inundation, flooding, and erosion was estimated. Costs of damage and population at risk were also evaluated. Only historical data and maps were used to assess the vulnerability of the coastal zone of the Abidjan region of Cote d'Ivoire to sea level rise. Results show that with a 1 m sea level rise the whole of the capital city of Banjul will be under mean sea level in the next 50 to 60 yr as a greater part of the city is below 1 m. The mangrove systems on St. Mary's Island, Kombo St. Mary, and the strand plains in the north bank will be inundated. About 1950 billion Dalasis (US $217 million) worth of land will be lost. The most appropriate response would be to protect the whole of the coastline of Banjul, the shoreline area from the Banjul cemeteries to Laguna Beach Hotel, the infrastructure at Sarro, and the hotel complex at Cape Point. Innovative sand management, repair of the damaged groins, and construction of dikes, breakwater structures, revetments, and low-cost seawall are some of the shoreline stabilization and hardening techniques suggested for the protection of this area. For the Abidjan region, the same response strategies should be used. Adaptation responses identified for both regions include public awareness, increase in height of coastal infrastructure, urban growth planning, wetland preservation and mitigation, and development of a coastal zone management plan.6 Mangroves are highly complex ecosystems occupying a major part of tropical coastlines. High primary productivity, efficient biological nutrient recyling and a permanent exchange with terrestrial and marine ecosystems are their common features. Despite the high production and export rates of leaf litter, mangrove detritus has been reported to be of minor importance in sustaining marine food webs. The geographical distribution of mangrove-derived organic matter (OM) in marine sediments is found to be restricted to the vicinity of its source. Dissolved nutrient inputs from mangroves and rivers may fuel the production of marine OM. In this paper we assess the relevance of mangroves for the production and sedimentation of OM in the tropical coastal ocean based on data available from the literature and our own research results. We estimate the rates of carbon accumulation in mangrove sediments and of carbon export to the coastal seas. From the rates of litter fall and export we calculate carbon accumulating in mangrove sediments to be in the order of 23x10(12) g C per year and mangrove carbon introduced into the coastal ocean to be in the order of 46x10(12) g C per year. They account for about 11% of the total input of terrestrial carbon into the ocean and 15% of the total carbon accumulating in modem marine sediments. A tripartite classification of gravel beaches, based upon morphodynamic properties, is proposed and demonstrated for 42 New Zealand beaches. The main advantage of this scheme is that it is based on simple visual classification that can be applied globally in the field and is underpinned by morphodynamic differences between the beach types. The three types identified from the results are: (1) pure gravel beach; (2) mixed sand and gravel beach; (3) composite gravel beach. Pure gravel beaches have steep slopes (tan beta = 0.08-0.24) and gravels extending from the storm berm to below mean low water spring tide level. Mixed sand and gravel beaches have moderate slopes (tan beta = 0.04-0.13) with sand and gravel entirely mixed both cross-shore and at depth. Composite gravel beaches have a steep gravel berm fronted by a low-angle intertidal terrace, with overall beach slopes of tan beta = 0.05-0.14. On composite beaches there is distinct hydrodynamic cross-shore sorting of the sand and gravel component. These broad types are tested using discriminant analysis and the three classes are shown to be highly significant (F = 16.24, df = 8, P < 0.00005). The key discriminating variables are Iribarren number, beach width, average grain size and storm berm height.~ 1] We analyze the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) database of sea level time series using a method based on Monte Carlo Singular Spectrum Analysis (MC-SSA). We remove 2 - 30 year quasi-periodic oscillations and determine the nonlinear long-term trends for 12 large ocean regions. Our global sea level trend estimate of 2.4 +/- 1.0 mm/yr for the period from 1993 to 2000 is comparable with the 2.6 +/- 0.7 mm/yr sea level rise calculated from TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter measurements. However, we show that over the last 100 years the rate of 2.5 +/- 1.0 mm/yr occurred between 1920 and 1945, is likely to be as large as the 1990s, and resulted in a mean sea level rise of 48 mm. We evaluate errors in sea level using two independent approaches, the robust bi-weight mean and variance, and a novel "virtual station'' approach that utilizes geographic locations of stations. Results suggest that a region cannot be adequately represented by a simple mean curve with standard error, assuming all stations are independent, as multiyear cycles within regions are very significant. Additionally, much of the between-region mismatch errors are due to multiyear cycles in the global sea level that limit the ability of simple means to capture sea level accurately. We demonstrate that variability in sea level records over periods 2 - 30 years has increased during the past 50 years in most ocean basins. The linkage between global climate change and sea level on the Finnish coast was studied. Scenarios were calculated for the long-term mean sea level in the future, based on the global change scenarios given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The effects of global mean sea level, local land uplift and the water balance of the Baltic Sea were taken into account. The effect of the water balance was estimated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. In most cases the rise in water level is expected to balance the land uplift in the Gulf of Finland, and the past declining trend of the relative sea level is not expected to continue. In the Gulf of Bothnia, the stronger land uplift rate still results in a fall of the relative mean sea level in the future. The uncertainties in the scenarios are large. Scenarios for the intra-annual variability of the sea level were constructed by extrapolating the 20th century trends of increasing variability.N During the second half of the twentieth century interest in the development of integrated ocean governance has continued to grow, within individual states and on the international level as well. In the United States the work of the Stratton Commission led to the creation of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the passage of the Coastal Zone Management Act. These developments were but the start of what has become o< ngoing concern with establishing coherent and comprehensive approaches to the management of ocean and coastal space. Globally, interest in more systemic approaches to ocean management increased with the negotiations for the 1982 United Nations Law of the Sea Convention and was further sparked by the issues raised at the 1972 Stockholm Conference on the Human Environment and the 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development held in Rio de Janeiro. Several states have recently undertaken new initiatives to further the development of integrated ocean policies that reflect recognition of the need for ecosystem-based management. The purpose of this contribution is to examine developments in three states, the United States, Canada, and Australia, that have given this subject substantial attention and to assess the efforts being made and the nature of the problems that are being encountered. Adaptation will play a key role in determining the economic and social costs of climate change. One important measure of adaptation is reductions in deaths caused by climate events. This paper uses two new data sets to test the hypothesis that, in recent years, climate events cause less deaths than in the past. Using data on deaths caused by natural disasters and data on skin cancer death rates in warmer and cooler US states, this paper reports evidence in favor of the adaptation progress hypothesis. This study comprises a first-order evaluation of the implications of accelerated sea-level rise and some other aspects of climate change for Turkey's coastal areas. Global sea-level rise during the 20th century has been estimated between 10 and 20 cm and similar changes appear to have occurred along Turkish coasts, although available data is poor. Coastal cities cover less than 5% of the total surface area of Turkey, but they have over 30 million inhabitants and are growing rapidly. The Marmara region around Istanbul has the highest population density of all regions. At the same time, more than 60% of the Turkish Gross National Product (GNP) is produced in the coastal strip from Tekirdag to Kocaeli (along the northern shoreline of the Marmara Sea). Analysis suggests that the effects of a 1-m rise in sea level could be significant and adaptation costs substantial. This preliminary assessment suggests a capital loss of about 6% of current GNP, whereas simple protection/adaptation could cost 10% of current GNP. Continued urbanisation and tourist development will further increase exposure to sea-level rise. Currently, the consequences of sea-level rise and climate change are ignored in coastal management, and although strengthening of coastal management mechanisms is required for a number of reasons, sea-level rise and climate change should be considered an important long-term issue. To assist this, detailed case studies are recommended around Turkey's diverse coast, starting with the strategically important Istanbul area.n A systems method based on a Boolean approach is used to predict medium- to long-term behaviour of estuary morphology. Boolean networks are formed for various types of generic estuaries by taking into account the feedback involved between various estuary elements and external forcing which drive morphological evolution. A logical framework is then developed, and the Boolean matrix is derived. Various different potential morphological evolutionary pathways are then selected from the Boolean matrix, analysed, and discussed. The Boolean method provides a complementary approach for qualitative modelling of complex estuary systems. The method was applied to the Ribble Estuary in northwest England, and the predictions from the Boolean approach were in very good qualitative agreement with the observed morphological evolution of the Ribble Estuary during the last 150 years.% Internal facies and development of an oceanic island's barrier reef were revealed by the stratigraphical study of six drill cores in Palau Islands, western Pacific. The Holocene reef development is primarily constrained at its foundation by the antecedent topography of Pleistocene substratum, Holocene barrier reef is an increment on the Pleistocene barrier reef, which had been subaerially exposed during glacial stages, About 8300 cal. year BP (calibrated calendar years B.P.), branching Acropora facies initially formed a bank on the seaward side of a Pleistocene limestone surface with a vertical accumulation rate as high as 30 m/ka (ka = 1000 years), After 7200 cal. year BP, when the sea-level rise rate decreased, reef crest facies caught up with the sea surface with an accumulation rate of less than 2.2 m/ka. Corals found in the reef crest facies are similar to the present-day reef crest corals dominated by Acropora digitfera and A. humilis. After the reef crest was formed, bioclastic sand and gravel facies prograded lagoonward of the reef crest and consisted mostly of reef derived materials. The construction of patch reefs postdated the barrier reef fort-nation. The mature barrier reef provided calm conditions inside the lagoon, which then led to the construction of patch reefs and fringing reefs. Sea-level changes deduced from the accumulation curves show rapid rise before 7200 cal. year BP followed by a slight rise of 4 m at its maximum. This change in sea-level rise rate inspired the change in reef facies from branching Acropora to reef crest._ We discuss approaches to the assessment of vulnerability to climate variability and change and attempt to clarify the relationship between the concepts of vulnerability and adaptation. In search of a robust, policy-relevant framework, we define vulnerability in terms of the capacity of individuals and social groups to respond to, that is, to cope with, recover from or adapt to, any external stress placed on their livelihoods and well-being. The approach that we develop places the social and economic well-being of society at the centre of the analysis, focussing on the socio-economic and institutional constraints that limit the capacity to respond. From this perspective, the vulnerability or security of any group is determined by resource availability and by the entitlement of individuals and groups to call on these resources. We illustrate the application of this approach through the results of field research in coastal Vietnam, highlighting shifting patterns of vulnerability to tropical storm impacts at the household- and community-level in response to the current process of economic renovation and drawing conclusions concerning means of supporting the adaptive response to climate stress. Four priorities for action are identified that would improve the situation of the most exposed members of many communities: poverty reduction; risk-spreading through income diversification; respecting common property management rights; and promoting collective security. A sustainable response, we argue, must also address the underlying causes of social vulnerability, including the inequitable distribution of resources. A new model of reef-island evolution, based on detailed morphostratigraphic analysis and radiometric dating of three islands in South Maalhosmadulu Atoll, Maldives, is presented. Islands initially formed on a foundation of lagoonal sediments between 5500 and 4500 yr B.P. when the reef surface was as much as 2.5 m below modern sea level. Islands accumulated rapidly during the following 1500 yr, effectively reaching their current dimensions by 4000 yr B.P. Since then the high circum-island peripheral ridge has been subject to seasonal and longer-term shoreline changes, while the outer reef has grown upward, reducing the energy window and confining the islands. This new model has far-reaching implications for island stability during a period of global warming and raised sea level, which will partially reactivate the energy window, although it is not expected to inhibit upward reef growth or compromise island stability.i Fringing reefs are generally not simple veneers of coral growth along tropical shorelines. Extensive research over the past few decades, based on radiocarbon dating of Holocene reef deposits, has indicated that they can develop < in a complex variety of ways even though the surface morphology may appear relatively simple. The principal factor that appears to determine the growth and morphology of fringing reefs is the available accommodation space. Sea-level fluctuations are important, primarily because the sea surface determines the absolute accommodation space for a given reef This means that a reef established during a period of sea-level rise will be able to accrete vertically as space is created above it. If, however, the reef establishes at, or grows to, the sea surface, thereby occupying all the available accommodation space, it can no longer accrete vertically and begins to build laterally. The morphology and chronostratigraphy of a range of Holocene fringing reefs are described, on the basis of which six fringing reef growth models are identified. In model A, the fringing reef is established at depth and primarily accretes vertically towards the sea surface. Reef growth in model B initiates at sea level and due to the lack of vertical accommodation space grows laterally. Model C has a similar morphology to model 13; however, the reef progrades over a nonreefal sediment wedge. Episodic lateral and vertical growth occurs in model D, with a stepwise progradation of the reef front. The remaining models are characterised by seaward reef framework behind which unconsolidated sediments accumulate. In model E, reef-crest growth forms a barrier leading to the development of a backreef lagoon. Model F has a similar morphology to model E, except that the reef crest is formed by hurricane rubble accumulation rather than framework accretion, and is periodically reworked. During the past century, human modification of environmental systems has greatly accelerated tidal salt marsh deterioration and shoreline retreat in many coastal regions worldwide. As a result, more than 50% of the original tidal salt marsh habitat in the U.S. has been lost. Numerous human activities have contributed directly or indirectly to wetland loss and alteration at local, regional, and global scales. Human impacts at the local scale include those that directly modify or destroy salt marsh habitat such as dredging, spoil dumping, grid ditching, canal cutting, leveeing, and salt hay farming. Indirect impacts, which can be even more significant, typically are those that interfere with normal tidal flooding of the marsh surface, alter wetlands drainage, and reduce mineral sediment inputs and marsh vertical accretion rates. These impacts usually develop over a greater period of time. At the regional scale, subsidence caused by subsurface withdrawal of groundwater, oil, and gas has submerged and eliminated hundreds of square kilometers of salt marsh habitat in the Chesapeake Bay, San Francisco Bay, and Gulf of Mexico. At the global scale, atmospheric warming clue to increased burden of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulfate aerosols appears to be strongly coupled to glacial melting, thermal expansion of ocean waters, and eustatic sea-level rise. Changes in coastal water levels ascribable to eustatic sea-level rise pose a long-term threat to the stability and viability of these critically important coastal systems.
The coastal zone of The Gambia consists of 70 km open ocean coast and 200 km sheltered coast. Only about 20 km of the open coastline is significantly developed and this includes Banjul (the capital city), Bakau and Cape St. Mary, Fajara and the Tourism Development Area (TDA). Tourism is the most important economic sector in the coastal zone and contributes about 10% of the government revenue. Fisheries and agriculture are also important coastal industries. In this study the Aerial Videotape-assisted Vulnerability Analysis (AVVA) technique has been used to provide a detailed analysis of vulnerability to sea level rise, and adaptation strategies have been identified. The data used includes a video recording of the coastline, color infrared and black and white aerial photography, topographic maps, bathymetric maps, a geological map of The Gambia and still photographs. The data have been used to characterize the coastal zone into 9 geomorphological units, wherein the cultural and heritage sites of economic importance have been delineated and characterized according to their biophysical and economic importance. Future erosion rates have been projected by applying the Bruun Rule, and future total land loss due to inundation in response to global warming and accelerated sea level rise has been determined. The sea level rise scenarios considered are 0.2 m, 0.5 m, and 1.0 m per century. Inundation is estimated to be about 92.32 x 10(6) m(2) for a 1.0 m sea level rise, 45.89 x 10(6) m(2) for a 0.5 m sea level rise and 4.96 x 10(6) m(2) for a 0.2 m sea level rise. The greater part of this area lost will be wetlands and mangrove systems important for fish spawning areas and habitats for wildlife. Shoreline retreat is estimated to vary between about 6.8 m in cliffy areas to about 880 m for more flat and sandy areas based on the Bruun Rule. Population and physical structures at risk have been determined. Attempts have been made to report this loss in monetary terms, but firm figures are not yet available. Only one unit of the coastal zone has been evaluated. In this unit, it is expected that the capital city will be completely lost through both erosion and inundation within 50 to 60 yr with a total of 42000 persons displaced. Lands and physical structures to be lost are estimated at US$ 217 million. Response strategies and adaptation options identified include: innovative sand management, building and rehabilitation of groins, construction of revetments to protect important areas, construction of sea-walls/bulkheads, public outreach and awareness, building regulations and urban growth planning, wetland preservation and mitigation, and development of a coastal zone management plan.t This paper begins with an analysis of flooding as a natural disaster for which the solutions to the environmental, social and economic problems are essentially those of identifying and overcoming hazards and vulnerability, reducing risk and damaging consequences. Long-term solutions to flooding problems, especially in a changing climate, should be sought in the wider context of developing more sustainable social organization, economics and technology. Then, developments are described of how scientific understanding, supported by practical modelling, is leading to predictions of how human-induced changes to climatic and geological conditions are likely to influence flooding over at least the next 300 years, through their influences on evaporation, precipitation, run-off, wind storm and sea-level rise. Some of the outstanding scientific questions raised by these problems are highlighted, such as the statistical and deterministic prediction of extreme events, the understanding and modelling of mechanisms that operate on varying length- and time-scales, and the complex interactions between biological, ecological and physical problems. Some options for reducing the impact of flooding by new technology include both improved prediction and monitoring with computer models, and remote sensing, flexible and focused warning systems, and permanent and temporary flood-reduction systems.7 Mankind is becoming ever more susceptible to natural disasters, largely as a consequence of population growth and globalization. It is likely that in the future, we will experience several disasters per year that kill more than 10 000 people. A calamity with a million casualties is just a matter of time. This situation is mainly a consequence of increased vulnerability. Climate change may also be affecting the frequency of extreme weather events as well as the vulnerability of coastal areas due to sea-level rise. Disastrous outcomes can only increase unless better ways are found to mitigate the effects through improved forecasting and warning, together with more community preparedness and resilience. There are particular difficulties with extreme events, which can affect several countries, while the largest events can have global consequences. The hazards of su< pervolcanic eruptions and asteroid impacts could cause global disaster with threats to civilization and deaths of billions of people. Although these are very rare events, they will happen and require consideration. More frequent and smaller events in the wrong place at the wrong time could have very large human, environmental and economic effects. A sustained effort is needed to identify places at risk and take steps to apply science before the events occur. 1. The saltmarshes of south-east England have been eroding rapidly for about the last 50 years, at a continuing rate of about 40 ha year(-1), with deleterious consequences for conservation and coastal flood defence. The possible reasons for this erosion and suitability of methods of saltmarsh restoration are discussed. 2. The prevailing hypothesis that the saltmarsh erosion is due to coastal squeeze, where sea walls prevent a landward migration of saltmarsh in response to sea level rise, is rejected because: (i) as the sea level rises saltmarshes accrete vertically as well, at least at the same rate, and may even extend seaward; (ii) in recent decades the rate of rise in sea level has been no higher than in the past when the saltmarshes developed; (iii) the pattern of vegetation loss, mostly of pioneer zone species, is opposite to that predicted by coastal squeeze, where the upper marsh plants should disappear first. 3. Alternative explanations and hypotheses are proposed that relate the recent saltmarsh erosion to changes to the intertidal biota, an increase in abundance of the infaunal polychaete Nereis diversicolor, and a decrease in abundance of intertidal seagrasses. Bioturbation and herbivory by Nereis cause the loss of pioneer zone plants, increase sediment instability and exacerbate the erosion of saltmarsh creeks. The erosion of the seaward edge of some marshes may also be due to increased wave action, and increased tidal current speeds in estuaries, following the loss of intertidal seagrasses since the 1930s through wasting disease. 4. Synthesis and applications. The current strategy for saltmarsh creation is based on managed realignment, where some sea walls are breached to provide new intertidal habitat. The conclusion that the causes of saltmarsh loss are not related to sea level rise calls into question this dependence on management realignment as the most appropriate means of saltmarsh creation, not least because many realignment areas are unlikely to develop vegetation. Other methods should be considered for creating new marshes and for reducing/reversing marsh erosion. 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Roemmich, D. I Ocean warming and sea-level rise along the Southwest United States coast
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! " # $ % & ' ( ) * + , - . / 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 : ; < = > ? @ A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z [ \ ] ^ _ ` a b c d e f g h i k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z { | } ~ . f Maps of lands vulnerable to sea level rise: modeled elevations along the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts. 18: 205-228. Titus, J. G., and V. Narayanan. The risk of sea level rise. 33: 151-212. Tol, R. S. J. N Estimates of the damage costs of climate change - Part II. Dynamic estimates. 21: 135-160.N Estimates of the damage costs of climate change. Part 1: Benchmark estimates.
21: 47-73.@ Adaptation and mitigation: trade-offs in substance and methods. Environmental Science & Policy 8: 572-578. Tol, R. S. J. and others - Adaptation to five metres of sea level rise. Journal of Risk Research 9: 467-482. Tol, R. S. J., and R. Verheyen. d State responsibility and compensation for climate change damages - a legal and economic assessment. Energy Policy 32: 1109-1130.3 Tol, R. S. J., R. J. T. Klein, and R. J. Nicholls. G Towards successful adaptation to sea-level rise along Europe's coasts. 24: 432-442.C Tol, R. S. J., R. J. T. Klein, H. M. A. Jansen, and H. Verbruggen. ` Some economic considerations on the importance of proactive integrated coastal zone management.
32: 39-55./ Tol, R. S. J., S. Fankhauser, and J. B. Smith. Z The scope for adaptation to climate change: what can we learn from the < impact literature? 8: 109-123. Tompkins, E. L. s Planning for climate change in small islands: Insights from national hurricane preparedness in the Cayman Islands. 15: 139-149." Tompkins, E. L., and W. N. Adger. = Defining response capacity to enhance climate change policy. 8: 562-571.) Tompkins, E., W. N. Adger, and K. Brown. P Institutional networks for inclusive coastal management in Trinidad and Tobago. 34: 1095-1111.* Tri, N. H., W. N. Adger, and P. M. Kelly. k Natural resource management in mitigating climate impacts: the example of mangrove restoration in Vietnam. 8: 49-61. Tsimplis, M. N., and M. Rixen. Z Sea level in the Mediterranean Sea: The contribution of temperature and salinity changes. : Tsimplis, M. N., S. A. Josey, M. Rixen, and E. V. Stanev. . On the forcing of sea level in the Black Sea. Turner, R. E. J Wetland loss in the northern Gulf of Mexico: Multiple working hypotheses. 20: 1-13.] Turner, R. K., I. Lorenzoni, N. Beaumont, I. J. Bateman, I. H. Langford, and A. L. Mcdonald. t Coastal management for sustainable development: Analysing environmental and socio-economic changes on the UK coast.
164: 269-281.( Turner, R. K., N. Adger, and P. Doktor. 0 Assessing the economic costs of sea level rise. 27: 1777-1796.K Turner, R. K., S. Georgiou, R. Brouwer, I. J. Bateman, and I. J. Langford. U Towards an integrated environmental assessment for wetland and catchment management. 169: 99-116.* Turner, R. K., S. Subak, and W. N. Adger. i Pressures, trends, and impacts in coastal zones: Interactions between socioeconomic and natural systems. 20: 159-173., Turner, R. K., W. N. Adger, and R. Brouwer. N Ecosystem services value, research needs, and policy relevance: a commentary.
25: 61-65. Vallega, A. F Ocean governance in post-modern society - a geographical perspective. Marine Policy 25: 399-414.F Van De Koppel, J., D. Van Der Wal, J. P. Bakker, and P. M. J. Herman. D Self-organization and vegetation collapse in salt marsh ecosystems. American Naturalist 165: E1-E12.Z Van Den Brink, H. W., G. P. Konnen, J. D. Opsteegh, G. J. Van Oldenborgh, and G. Burgers. _ Improving 10(4)-year surge level estimates using data of the ECMWF seasonal prediction system. Van Der Wal, D., and K. Pye. Z Patterns, rates and possible causes of saltmarsh erosion in the Greater Thames area (UK). 61: 373-391. Van Heijst, M., and G. Postma. W Fluvial response to sea-level changes: a quantitative analogue, experimental approach. Basin Research 13: 269-292.+ Vandenbohede, A., K. Luyten, and L. Lebbe. U Effects of global change on heterogeneous coastal aquifers: A case study in Belgium. 24: 160-170.Z Vankoningsveld, A., J. P. M. Mulder, M. J. F. Stive, L. Vandervalk, and A. W. Vanderweck. P Living with sea-level rise and climate change: A case study of the Netherlands.
24: 367-+.2 Varekamp, J. C., E. Thomas, and O. Vandeplassche. D Relative sea-level rise and climate change over the last 1500 years Terra Nova 4: 293-304." Vaughan, D. G., and J. R. Spouge. = Risk estimation of collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.
52: 65-91.' Vilibic, I., N. Leder, and A. Smircic. K Storm surges in the Adriatic Sea: An impact on the coastal infrastructure. Periodicum Biologorum
102: 483-488. Wadhams, P., and W. Munk. 5 Ocean freshening, sea level rising, sea ice melting. Walsh, K. J. E. and others B Using sea level rise projections for urban planning in Australia. 20: 586-598." Warren, R. S., and W. A. Niering. a Vegetation change on a Northeast tidal march - interaction of sea-level rise and marsh accretion 74: 96-103. Webster, J. M. and others R Drowning of the - 150 m reef off Hawaii: A casualty of global meltwater pulse 1A? 32: 249-252. Coralgal composition of drowned carbonate platforms in the Huon Gulf, Papua New Guinea; implications for lowstand reef development and drowning. 204: 59-89. Webster, M. and others < Uncertainty analysis of climate change and policy response. 61: 295-320.< Webster, T. L., D. L. Forbes, E. Mackinnon, and D. Roberts. f Flood-risk mapping for storm-surge events and sea-level rise using lidar for southeast New Brunswick. # Canadian Journal of Remote Sensing 32: 194-211.. West, J. J., M. J. Small, and H. Dowlatabadi. H Storms, investor decisions, and the economic impacts of sea level rise. 48: 317-342. White, I. and others < Climatic and human influences on groundwater in low atolls. Vadose Zone Journal 6: 581-590./ White, N. J., J. A. Church, and J. M. Gregory. = Coastal and global averaged sea level rise for 1950 to 2000. Wigley, T. M. L. The climate change commitment. 307: 1766-1769. Wilkinson, C. R. O Global change and coral reefs: Impacts on reefs, economies and human cultures. 2: 547-558.Z Global and local threats to coral reef functioning and existence: review and predictions. Marine and Freshwater Research 50: 867-878.G Williams, K., K. C. Ewel, R. P. Stumpf, F. E. Putz, and T. W. Workman. M Sea-level rise and coastal forest retreat on the west coast of Florida, USA. 80: 2045-2063.4 Williams, K., M. Macdonald, and L. D. L. Sternberg. T Interactions of storm, drought, and sea-level rise on coastal forest: A case study. 19: 1116-1121.[ Willis, K. J., M. B. Araujo, K. D. Bennett, B. Figueroa-Rangel, C. A. Froyd, and N. Myers. How can a knowledge of the past help to conserve the future? Biodiversity conservation and the relevance of long-term ecological studies. F Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences
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11: 65-74. Yim, W. W. S. W Vulnerability and adaptation of Hong Kong to hazards under climatic change conditions. 92: 181-190. Yohe, G. Y The cost of not holdng back the sea - toward a national sample of economic vulnerability 18: 403-431.P Assessing the role of adaptation in evaluating vulnerability to climate change. 46: 371-390. Yohe, G., and J. Neumann. L Planning for sea level rise and shore protection under climate uncertainty. 37: 243-270.2 Yohe, G., J. Neumann, P. Marshall, and H. Ameden. d The economic cost of greenhouse-induced sea-level rise for developed property in the United States. 32: 387-410.2 Youn, Y. H., I. S. Oh, Y. H. Park, and K. H. Kim. @ Climate variabilities of sea level around the Korean Peninsula. ! Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 21: 617-626.; Yu, Y. F., Y. X. Yu, J. C. Zuo, Z. W. Wan, and Z. Y. Chen. U Effect of sea level variation on tidal characteristic values for the East China Sea. China Ocean Engineering 17: 369-382.4 Zahran, S., H. Grover, S. D. Brody, and A. Vedlitz. W Risk, stress, and capacity - Explaining metropolitan commitment to climate protection. Urban Affairs Review 43: 447-474. Zazo, C. and others z The coastal archives of the last 15 ka in the Atlantic-Mediterranean Spanish linkage area: Sea level and climate changes. 181: 72-87. Zedler, J. B. 6 Compensating for wetland losses in the United States. 146: 92-100. Zedler, J. B., and S. Kercher. J Wetland resources: Status, trends, ecosystem services, and restorability.
30: 39-74. Zeidler, R. B. U Climate change vulnerability and response strategies for the coastal zone of Poland. 36: 151-173.3 Zhang, K. Q., B. C. Douglas, and S. P. Leatherman. $ Global warming and coastal erosion.
64: 41-58. Zinn, M. D. A Adapting to climate change: Environmental law in a warmer world. Ecology Law Quarterly 34: 61-105.^ Sea level rise over the last 55 years is estimated to have been 1.7 +/- 0.2 mm yr(-1), based upo< n 177 tide gauges divided into 13 regions with near global coverage and using a Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) model to correct for land movements. We present evidence from altimeter data that the rate of sea level rise around the global coastline was significantly in excess of the global average over the period 1993-2002. We also show that the globally-averaged rate of coastal sea level rise for the decade centered on 1955 was significantly larger than any other decade during the past 55 years. In some models of sea level rise, enhanced coastal rise is a pre-cursor of global average rise. It remains to be seen whether the models are correct and whether global-average rates in the future reflect the high rates of coastal rise observed during the 1990s. The 'Regional Climate Change Impact and Response Studies in East Anglia and North West England' (RegIS) integrated assessment (IA) investigated climate and socio-economic impacts and adaptation options, and cross-sectoral interactions between four major sectors driving landscape change (agriculture, biodiversity, coastal zones and water resources). The baseline and two contrasting climate change scenarios (with and without regional socio-economic change scenarios) were investigated. RegIS showed that climate change, without policy adaptation, could lead to severe flood impacts in East Anglia, and significant agricultural abandonment. Despite yield changes, cropping is generally insensitive to climate, but very sensitive to socio-economic change. There is increased seasonality to river flows, compounded by increased urbanisation and irrigation demand. The responses of biodiversity to climate change are regional, habitat and species-specific, but much of the future of biodiversity in these regions will depend on planned adaptation in the other sectors. Numerous examples of public engagement with the global change sphere represent the real outward value of RegIS, due to the significant uncertainties and limitations to knowledge in this first regional IA which prevented results of the detail, specificity and confidence that decision-makers required. However, with further investment and refinement, regional IA's will increasingly provide such output.' We identify a continental-scale network of sites to evaluate how two aspects of climate change - sea-level rise and intensification of windstorms - will influence the structure, function, and capacity of coastal and inland forest ecosystems to deliver ecosystem services (eg carbon sequestration, storm protection, pollution control, habitat support, food). The network consists of coastal wetland and inland forest sites across the US and is representative of continental-level gradients of precipitation, temperature, vegetation, frequency of occurrence of major windstorms, value of insured properties, tidal range, watershed land use, and sediment availability. The network would provide real-time measurements of the characteristics of sea-level rise and windstorm events and would allow an assessment of the responses of wetlands, streams, and inland forests at spatial and temporal scales associated with sustainability of ecosystem services. We illustrate the potential of this approach with examples of hypotheses that could be tested across the network. A high resolution storm surge inundation model has been developed to model coastal flooding due to storm surges. The storm surge model, which features a nesting capability and inundation algorithm, is described. The flooding and draining rate is dependent on the modelled current in adjacent 'wet' grid cells which ensures realistic and smoothly varying results. Model simulations are carried out in two distinctly different geographic regions. The first of these is the town of Port Hedland on the northwest coast of Australia which was severely inundated by a tropical cyclone-induced storm surge in 1939. The model is shown to reproduce the peak flood levels and areas of inundation to a high degree of accuracy. Storm surge heights at the coast produced by a 'fixed-coastline' version of the model are compared with the inundation model results and indicate an overestimation of the storm surge heights by up to 17%. Simulations are conducted with varied horizontal resolution to investigate the robustness of the model. The flooding rates and areas of inundation are relatively unaffected by moderate variations in horizontal resolution. The second region studied is Port Phillip Bay, upon which the city of Melbourne is located. The model is used to simulate the storm surge and inundation produced by two separate cold fronts. The vulnerability of two locations within the Bay is investigated under altered sea level and storm strength conditions to demonstrate the potential impact of climate change. In a final simulation, levee banks on the tributaries draining into the bay are removed. The vastly increased inundation serves to illustrate the importance of maintaining and possibly increasing flood protection measures in this region in the future. Congress created the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) to provide much-needed flood insurance to property owners and to decrease the nation's susceptibility to flooding. Relative sea level rise now poses a threat to the nation's flood preparedness, with coastal property owners facing increasingly severe flooding. The Federal Emergency Management Agency could address this vulnerability through several different approaches. By recalculating and extending the 100-year floodplains to incorporate estimates of relative sea level rise, the program would prepare coastal property owners for the near-future flood risks Further adaptation approaches to improve the NFIP include requiring floodproofing, obtaining "rolling easements," and conducting education campaigns.L The coastal zones are areas of high biological productivity and intense human pressure. Environmental challenges arise from pollution and from urban and industrial development, Administrative, social and legal challenges centre upon the need for sound management of coastal zone resources, as an important component of national strategies for sustainability, A number of specific actions have been set out in Agenda 21, the principal product of the Earth Summit held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. But these need to be carried forward within cross-sectoral, integrated coastal area management procedures. International action is also needed because marine ecosystems rarely coincide with national boundaries, and are affected by international economic, social and legal decisions, International scientific co-operation on marine issues is already well established, and many regional action plans and Conventions have been adopted, Technological cooperation is less advanced, Such efforts need to be intensified, and continuously adapted, Sound plans for the future must be based on good science, critical economic evaluation of resources, sensitive evaluation of social and cultural factors and of the needs of local communities, evaluation of the risks of climate change, sea-level rise and other changes, and monitoring as a basis for continuing adaptation. Sea-level
S. America Gulf of Mexico Undeveloped coastline Restoration
Experimental Observations Marine Seagrass Socio-ecological
Governance
Historical Recent % Holgate, S. J., and P. L. Woodworth. ? Evidence for enhanced coastal sea level rise during the 1990s. Holman, I. P. and others t A regional, multi-sectoral and integrated assessment of the impacts of climate and socio-economic change in the UK.
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89: 23-30." Jennings, R., and J. Shulmeister. 8 A field based classification scheme for gravel beaches.
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24: 51-61.# Kathiresan, K., and B. L. Bingham. - Biology of mangroves and mangrove ecosystems 40: 81-251. Kawabe, M. U Mechanisms of interannual variations of equatorial sea-level associated with El nino ! Journal of Physical Oceanography 24: 979-993.= Kay, R. C., I. Eliot, B. Caton, G. Morvell, and P. Waterman. A review of the intergovernmental panel on climate change's common methodology for assessing the vulnerability of coastal areas to sea-level rise. 24: 165-188.+ Kayanne, H., H. Yamano, and R. H. Randall. l Holocene sea-level changes and barrier reef formation on an oceanic island, Palau Islands, western Pacific. Sedimentary Geology 150: 47-60.% Kearney, M. S., and J. C. Stevenson. o Island land loss and marsh vertical accretion rate evidence for historical sea-level changes in Chesapeake Bay 7: 403-415. Kelly, P. M., and W. N. Adger. ^ Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation. 47: 325-352.. Kench, P. S., R. F. Mclean, and S. L. Nichol. < New model of reef-island evolution: Maldives, Indian Ocean. Geology 33: 145-148.% Kennedy, D. M., and C. D. Woodroffe. / Fringing reef growth and morphology: a review. 57: 255-277. Kennish, M. J. I Coastal salt marsh systems in the US: A review of anthropogenic impacts. 17: 731-748.= Environmental threats and environmental future of estuaries. 29: 78-107.' Kesavan, P. C., and M. S. Swaminathan. 5 Managing extreme natural disasters in coastal areas. 364: 2191-2216.- Kirwan, M. L., A. B. Murray, and W. S. Boyd. Y Temporary vegetation disturbance as an explanation for permanent loss of tidal wetlands. ! Kirwan, M. L., and A. B. Murray. Ecological and morphological response of brackish tidal marshland to the next century of sea level rise: Westham Island, British Columbia. 60: 471-486.4 Kirwan, M. L., J. L. Kirwan, and C. A. Copenheaver. F Dynamics of an estuarine forest and its response to rising sea level. 23: 457-463.% Klein, R. J. T., and R. J. Nicholls. 7 Assessment of coastal vulnerability to climate change. Ambio 28: 182-187.> Klein, R. J. T., M. J. Smit, H. Goosen, and C. H. Hulsbergen. ? Resilience and vulnerability: Coastal dynamics or Dutch dikes? Geographical Journal
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40: 43-70., Knogge, T., M. Schirmer, and B. Schuchardt. 3 Landscape-scale socio-economics of sea-level rise. Ibis 146: 11-17.# Kont, A., J. Jaagus, and R. Aunap. G Climate change scenarios and the effect of sea-level rise for Estonia. 36: 1-15.7 Kont, A., J. Jaagus, R. Aunap, U. Ratas, and R. Rivis. , Implications of sea-level rise for Estonia. 24: 423-431.% Kont, A., U. Ratas, and E. Puurmann. 3 Sea-level rise impact on coastal areas of Estonia. 36: 175-184.J Kropp, J. P., A. Block, F. Reusswig, K. Zickfeld, and H. J. Schellnhuber. a Semiquantitative assessment of regional climate vulnerability: The North-Rhine Westphalia Study. 76: 265-290. Kumar, P. K. D. r Potential vulnerability implications of sea level rise for the coastal zones of Cochin, southwest coast of India.
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Lough, J. M. = 10th anniversary review: a changing climate for coral reefs. $ Journal of Environmental Monitoring
10: 21-29.5 Lozano, I., R. J. N. Devoy, W. May, and U. Andersen. Storminess and vulnerability along the Atlantic coastlines of Europe: analysis of storm records and of a greenhouse gases induced climate scenario.
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Mcfadden, L. b Governing coastal spaces: The case of disappearing science in integrated coastal zone management. 35: 429-443.= Mcfadden, L., R. J. Nicholls, A. Vafeidis, and R. S. J. Tol. @ A methodology for modeling coastal space for global assessment. 23: 911-920.* Mcgranahan, G., D. Balk, and B. Anderson. m The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones.
19: 17-37.# Mcnamara, D. E., and B. T. Werner. o Coupled barrier island-resort model: 1. Emergent instabilities induced by strong human-landscape interactions. . Journal of Geophysical Research-Earth Surface Coupled barrier island-resort model: 2. Tests and predictions along Ocean City and Assateague Island National Seashore, Maryland. Meehl, G. A. and others 1 How much more global warming and sea level rise? 307: 1769-1772.d Climate change projections for the twenty-first century and climate change commitment in the CCSM3. 19: 2597-2616.# Meier, M. F., and M. B. Dyurgerov. 1 Sea level changes: How Alaska affects the world.
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Milne, G. * How the climate drives sea-level changes. Astronomy & Geophysics
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Nerem, R. S. P Measuring global mean sea level variations using TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data. 100: 25135-25151.R Measuring very low frequency sea level variations using satellite altimeter data. 20: 157-171.0 Nerem, R. S., K. E. Rachlin, and B. D. Beckley. v Characterization of global mean sea level variations observed by TOPEX/POSEIDON using empirical orthogonal functions. 18: 293-302. Ng, W. S., and R. Mendelsohn. + The impact of sea level rise on Singapore. & Environment and Development Economics 10: 201-215. Nicholls, R. J. H Analysis of global impacts of sea-level rise: a case study of flooding. # Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 27: 1455-1466.t Coastal flooding and wetland loss in the 21st century: changes under the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios.
14: 69-86./ Nicholls, R. J., and A. C. De La Vega-Leinert. E Implications of sea-level rise for Europe's coasts: An introduction. 24: 285-287.) Nicholls, R. J., and F. M. J. Hoozemans. L The Mediterranean: Vulnerability to coastal implications of climate change. 31: 105-132. We surveyed the literature to assess the state of knowledge with regard to the (presumed) benefits or avoided damages of reducing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases to progressively lower levels. The survey included only published studies addressing global impacts of climate change; studies that only addressed regional impacts were not included. The metric we used for change in climate is increase in global mean temperature (GMT). The focus of the analysis centred on determining the general shape of the damage curve, expressed as a function of GMT. Studies in sea level rise, agriculture, water resources, human health, energy, terrestrial ecosystems productivity, forestry, biodiversity, and marine ecosystems productivity were examined. In addition, we analysed several studies that aggregate results across sectors. Results are presented using metrics as reported in the surveyed studies and thus are not aggregated. We found that the relationships between GMT and impacts are not consistent across sectors. Some of the sectors exhibit increasing adverse impacts with increasing GMT, in particular coastal resources, biodiversity, and possibly marine ecosystem productivity. Some sectors are characterised by a parabolic relationship between temperature and impacts (benefits at lower GMT increases, damages at higher GMT increases), in particular, agriculture, terrestrial ecosystem productivity, and possibly forestry. The relationship between global impacts and increase in GMT for water, health, energy, and aggregate impacts appears to be uncertain. One consistent pattern is that beyond an approximate 3-4degreesC increase in GMT, all of the studies we examined, with the possible exception of forestry, show increasing adverse impacts. Thus, in total, it appears likely that there are increasing adverse impacts at higher increases in GMT. We were unable to determine the relationship between total impacts and climate change up to a 3-4degreesC increase in GMT. There are important uncertainties in the studies we surveyed that prevent us from a precise identification of 3-4degreesC as the critical temperature transition range, beyond which damages are adverse and increasing. We are confident in general however, that beyond several degrees of GMT, damages tend to be adverse and increasing. We conclude by suggesting some priorities for future research that, if undertaken, would further our understanding of how impacts are apt to vary with increases in GMT.& Field studies and aerial photograph interpretation suggest that large sections of Jamaica Bay salt marshes in New York City near John F. Kennedy International Airport are deteriorating rapidly. The relatively recent salt marsh losses may be caused by a variety of factors, potentially interacting synergistically. Possible factors include reduced sediment input, dredging for navigation channels, boat traffic, and regional sea-level rise. Field work included aboveground biomass measurements of Spartina alterniflora, mapping plant community distribution, and documenting biogeomorphological indicators of marsh loss. Current productivity (standing crop biomass), which ranged from approximately 700 to 1500 g m(-2), was typical of healthy marshes in this region, in spite of other indicators of marsh degradation. Historical aerial photographs of several islands showed that< sampled marshes have diminished in size by similar to 12% since 1959. Overall island low marsh vegetation losses since 1974 averaged 38%, with smaller islands losing up to 78% of their vegetation cover. Ground observations indicate that major mechanisms of marsh loss include increased ponding within marsh interiors, slumping along marsh edges, and widening of tidal inlets. Projections of future sea-level rise, using outputs from several global climate models and data from local tide gauges, in conjunction with a range of plausible accretion rates, suggest that under current stresses, Jamaica Bay salt marshes are unlikely to keep pace with accelerated rates of sea-level rise in the future.> Saltmarsh vertical accretion has been used as a proxy for sea-level rise in previous studies on the assumption that accretion is in quasi-equilibrium with sea-level rise. This assumption requires verification in each case, as accretion may lag or exceed sea-level rise, leading to under- or over-estimates of sea-level rise, respectively. Verification may be provided by biostratigraphic analysis, where biological remains in saltmarsh sediments may be related to former tide levels. Foraminifera are well-suited, as studies of modern saltmarshes have demonstrated distinct tidal relationships which may be used to calibrate downcore/temporal foraminifera sequences. It is hypothesized that, depending on the relationship between sea-level rise and accretion, quasi-equilibrium, submergence, and emergence foraminifera sequences may be recognized. These are explored here in a Severn Estuary (U.K.) saltmarsh, where an emergence foraminifera sequence is identified, suggesting that previous sea-level rise rates for the Severn Estuary, based on saltmarsh accretion rates, may be over-estimates. Wider consequences of this may include over-estimation of regional crustal subsidence rates, required to accommodate artificially high sea-level rise rates. Saltmarsh accretion rates are clearly not a suitable proxy for sea-level rise in all cases, and as such each saltmarsh requires biostratigraphic evaluation to establish sea-level rise/accretion relationships. Preferably, independent Sea-Level Index Points (SLIPs) should be used over saltmarsh accretion rates in constructing sea-level histories.) Long-term monitoring shows that the poleward range edges of intertidal biota have shifted by as much as 50 km per decade, faster than most recorded shifts of terrestrial species. Although most studies have concentrated on species-range edges, recent work emphasizes how modifying factors such as regional differences in the timing of low tide can overwhelm large-scale climatic gradients, leading to a mosaic of environmental stress. We discuss how changes in the mean and variability in climatic regimes, as modified by local and regional factors, can lead to complex patterns of species distribution rather than simple range shifts. We describe how ecological forecasting may be used to generate explicit hypotheses regarding the likely impacts of different climatic change scenarios on the distribution of intertidal species and how related hindcasting methods can be used to evaluate changes that have already been detected. These hypotheses can then be tested over a hierarchy of temporal and spatial scales using coupled field and laboratory-based approaches. Two years of TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data are examined to determine the dominant spatial features and timescales of sea surface height variability in the global oceans and to estimate the rate of global sea level rise. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition of 69 cycles of TOPEX altimeter data into the significant modes of variability reveals dominant annual and interannual timescales. The annual modes include the hemispheric-scale changes in steric height due to seasonal heating variations, changes in the strength of the major current systems in the equatorial Pacific, and the reversing monsoonal circulation in the Indian Ocean. The interannual modes capture oscillations in the tropical Pacific characteristic of recent El Nino events. A a-year history of the change in mean sea level derived from TOPEX altimeter data reveals a rise of 5.2 mm/yr. By analyzing the contribution of each EOF mode to global mean sea level variations, we find that 82% of the rise in mean sea level is caused by a single interannual mode of variability. Altimeter data spanning only 2 years, however, are insufficient to resolve a complete El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle which dominates the interannual EOF modes. Thus most of the rise in mean sea level derived from TOPEX altimetry is an artifact of incomplete temporal sampling of interannual variability. When a longer time series of TOPEX altimeter data is obtained and a complete ENSO cycle is observed, a significant reduction in the rate of global mean sea level rise estimated from TOPEX altimetry is expected. Most of the remaining rise in global mean sea level is explained by the annual EOF modes, suggesting a possible connection between sea level rise and changes in the steric component of sea surface height. Freshwater peatlands represent an important component of global biogeochemistry through their role in carbon sequestration. Threats to carbon storage in freshwater peat include climate-related increases in rates of oxidation and methanogenesis, increased wildfires, drainage, and dissolved organic carbon export from runoff. This paper discusses the potential impact of sea level rise on carbon fluxes from coastal peatlands, an issue not addressed by previous studies describing threats to peatlands from global climate change. We estimate carbon stocks and potential emissions from a coastal freshwater peatland located in North Carolina, United States. Four scenarios for inundation were modeled using Hadley-CM3 scenarios (including the effects of collapsed barrier islands) with a lidar-derived digital elevation model. Monte Carlo analysis was used to address model uncertainty and sensitivity of carbon emission parameters for three scenarios. Total existing carbon storage (peat and vegetation) on the Peninsula (5671 km 2) was estimated to range between 155.5 and 201.0 TgC (95% confidence intervals). Sea level projections ranged from 0.35 to 1.38 m by the end of the century and were estimated to inundate between 1260 and 3020 km 2 of the Peninsula. Carbon emissions from inundation of peat and vegetation ranged from 4.7-20.9 TgC (assuming inundation preserved peat deposits) to 99.4-128.0 TgC (assuming 100% emissions of inundated peat). While considerable uncertainty exists regarding the fate of carbon fluxes, we identify 150,000 km 2 of freshwater peatlands worldwide below 5-m elevation and vulnerable to sea level rise. Our study suggests that future sea level rise may contribute a positive feedback to the global carbon cycle./ Caribbean coral reef habitats, seagrass beds and mangroves provide important goods and services both individually and through functional linkages. A range of anthropogenic factors are threatening the ecological and economic importance of these habitats and it is vital to understand how ecosystem processes vary across seascapes. A greater understanding of processes will facilitate further insight into the effects of disturbances and assist with assessing management options. Despite the need to study processes across whole seascapes, few spatially explicit ecosystem-scale assessments exist. We review the empirical literature to examine the role of different habitat types for a range of processes. The importance of each of 10 generic habitats to each process is defined as its "functional value" (none, low, medium or high), quantitatively derived from published data wherever possible and summarised in a single figure. This summary represents the first time the importance of habitats across an entire Caribbean seascape has been assessed for a range of processes. Furthermore, we review the susceptibility of each habitat to disturbances to investigate spatial patterns that might affect functional values. Habitat types are considered at the scale discriminated by remotely-sensed imagery and we envis< age that functional values can be combined with habitat maps to provide spatially explicit information on processes across ecosystems. We provide examples of mapping the functional values of habitats for populations of three commercially important species. The resulting data layers were then used to generate seascape-scale assessments of "hot spots" of functional value that might be considered priorities for conservation. We also provide an example of how the literature reviewed here can be used to parameterise a habitat-specific model investigating reef resilience under different scenarios of herbivory. Finally, we use multidimensional scaling to provide a basic analysis of the overall functional roles of different habitats. The resulting ordination suggests that each habitat has a unique suite of functional values and, potentially, a distinct role within the ecosystem. This review shows that further data are required for many habitat types and processes, particularly forereef and escarpment habitats on reefs and for seagrass beds and mangroves. Furthermore, many data were collected prior to the regional mass mortality of Diadema and Acropora, and subsequent changes to benthic communities have, in many cases, altered a habitat's functional value, hindering the use of these data for parameterising maps and models. Similarly, few data exist on how functional values change when environmental parameters, such as water clarity, are altered by natural or anthropogenic influences or the effects of a habitat's spatial context within the seascape. Despite these limitations, sufficient data are available to construct maps and models to better understand tropical marine ecosystem processes and assist more effective mitigation of threats that alter habitats and their functional values. Stresses associated with effects of climate change, including rise in relative mean sea level, present one set of threats to mangroves. Coastal development and ecosystems in the Pacific Islands region are particularly vulnerable to climate change effects. We investigated the capacity of Pacific Island countries and territories to assess mangrove vulnerability to the effects of climate change, and their capacity to adapt to mangrove responses to these forces. Technical and institutional capacity-building priorities include: (1) strengthening management frameworks to conduct site-specific assessment of mangrove vulnerability and incorporate resulting information into land-use plans to prepare for any landward mangrove migration and offsetting anticipated losses; (2) reducing and eliminating stresses on and rehabilitating mangroves, in part, to increase mangrove resilience to climate change effects; and (3) augmenting abilities to establish mangrove baselines, and monitor gradual changes using standardized techniques through a regional network to distinguish local and climate change effects on mangroves. Other priorities are to: (4) assess how mangrove margins have changed over recent decades; (5) determine projections of trends in mean relative sea level and trends in the frequency and elevation of extreme high water events; (6) measure trends in changes in elevations of mangrove surfaces; and (7) incorporate this information into land-use planning processes. Also in (8) some locations require spatial imagery showing topography and locations of mangroves and coastal development. Land-use planners can use information from assessments predicting shoreline responses to projected sea level rise and other climate change effects to reduce risks to coastal development, human safety, and coastal ecosystems. This advanced planning enables coastal managers to minimize social disruption and cost, minimize losses of valued coastal ecosystems, and maximize available options. Flooding and salinity stress are predicted to increase in coastal Louisiana as relative sea level rise (RSLR) continues in the Gulf of Mexico region. Although wetland plant species are adapted to these stressors, questions persist as to how marshes may respond to changed abiotic variables caused by RSLR, and how herbivory by native and non-native mammals may affect this response. The effects of altered flooding and salinity on coastal marsh communities were examined in two field experiments that simultaneously manipulated herbivore pressure. Marsh sods subjected to increased or decreased flooding (by lowering or raising soda, respectively), and increased or decreased salinity (by reciprocally transplanting sods between a brackish and fresh marsh), were monitored inside and outside mammalian herbivore exclosures for three growing seasons. Increased flooding stress reduced species numbers and biomass; alleviating flooding stress did not significantly alter species numbers while community biomass increased. Increased salinity reduced species numbers and biomass, more so if herbivores were present. Decreasing salinity had an unexpected effect: herbivores selectively consumed plants transplanted from the higher-salinity site. In plots protected from herbivory, decreased salinity had little effect on species numbers or biomass, but community composition changed. Overall, herbivore pressure further reduced species richness and biomass under conditions of increased flooding and increased salinity, supporting other findings that coastal marsh species call tolerate increasingly stressful conditions unless another factor, e.g., herbivory, is also present. Also, species dropped out of more stressful treatments much faster than they were added when stresses were alleviated, likely due to restrictions on dispersal. The rate at which plant communities will shift as a result of changed abiotic variables will determine if marshes remain viable when subjected to RSLR. Although rising global sea levels will affect the shape of coastlines over the coming decades(1,2), the most severe and catastrophic shoreline changes occur as a consequence of local and regional-scale processes. Changes in sediment supply(3) and deltaic subsidence(4,5), both natural or anthropogenic, and the occurrences of tropical cyclones(4,5) and tsunamis(6) have been shown to be the leading controls on coastal erosion. Here, we use satellite images of South American mangrove-colonized mud banks collected over the past twenty years to reconstruct changes in the extent of the shoreline between the Amazon and Orinoco rivers. The observed timing of the redistribution of sediment and migration of the mud banks along the 1,500km muddy coast suggests the dominant control of ocean forcing by the 18.6 year nodal tidal cycle(7). Other factors affecting sea level such as global warming or El Nino and La Nina events show only secondary influences on the recorded changes. In the coming decade, the 18.6 year cycle will result in an increase of mean high water levels of 6 cm along the coast of French Guiana, which will lead to a 90 m shoreline retreat. Future global and regional sea-level changes have been calculated using two versions (HadCM2 and HadCM3) of the Hadley Centre coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model forced by the IS92a scenario for emissions of greenhouse gases. HadCM3 is a newly developed model which does not require flux adjustment to maintain a stable climatology. Global-average sea-level rise from 1990 to 2100 is predicted to be 0.48 m in HadCM2 and 0.44 m in HadCM3, 60% resulting from thermal expansion of sea-water and the rest: from loss of mass of glaciers and small ice-caps. Sea-lever rise is smaller in HadCM3 principally because the radiative forcing is slightly less, giving reduced ocean heat uptake and thermal expansion. However, the heal penetrates less deeply in HadCM3; consequently the surface warming is nearly the same. There is marked geographical Variation of sealevel change, which is generally similar in the two models; local values range between zero and twice the global average.g In the high Hawaiian Islands, significant accretion due to coral reef growth is limited by wave exposure and sea level. Holocene coral growth and reef accretion was measured at four stations off Oahu, Hawaii, chosen along a gradient in wave energy from minimum to maximum e< xposures. The results show that coral growth of living colonies (linear extension) at optimal depths is comparable at all stations (7.7-10.1 mm/y), but significant reef accretion occurs only at wave sheltered stations. At wave sheltered stations in Hanauma Bay and Kaneohe Bay, rates of long term reef accretion are about 2.0 mm/y. At wave exposed stations, off Mamala Bay and Sunset Beach, reef accretion rates are virtually zero in both shallow (1 m) and deeper (optimal) depths (12 m). At wave sheltered stations, such as Kaneohe Bay and Hanauma Bay, Holocene reef accretion is on the order of 10-15 m thick. At wave exposed stations, Holocene accretion is represented by only a thin veneer of living corals resting on antecedent Pleistocene limestone foundations. Modern coral communities in wave exposed environments undergo constant turnover associated with mortality and recruitment or re-growth of fragmented colonies and are rarely thicker than a single living colony. Breakage, scour, and abrasion of living corals during high wave events appears to be the major source of mortality and ultimately limits accretion to wave sheltered environments. Depth is particularly important as a modulator of wave energy. The lack of coral reef accretion along shallow open ocean coastlines may explain the absence of mature barrier reefs in the high Hawaiian Islands.Z During the last glacial maximum (LGM), about 21,000 years ago, the Hawaiian Islands of Maui, Lanai, and Molokai were interconnected by limestone bridges, creating a super-island known as Maui-Nui. Approximately 120 in of sea-level rise during the Holocene Transgression flooded, and then drowned. these bridges separating the islands by inter-island channels. A new multibeam high-resolution bathymetric survey of the channels between the islands, coupled with observations and video-transects utilizing DeepWorker-2000 submersibles, has revealed the existence of numerous drowned reef features including concentric solution basins, solution ridges (rims), sand and sediment plains, and conical-shaped reef pinnacles. The concentric basins contain flat lagoon-like bottoms that are rimmed by steep-sided limestone walls. Undercut notches rim the basins at several depths, marking either sea-level still stands or paleo-lake levels. All of the solution basins shallower than 120 in were subaerial at the LGM, and at one stage or another may have been shallow shoreline lakes. Today, about 70 drowned reef pinnacles are scattered across the Maui-Lanai underwater bridge and all are situated in wave-sheltered positions. Most drowned during the interval between 14,000 and 10,000 years ago when sea-level rise averaged 15 mm/ year. Virtually all of the surficial topography in the Au'au Channel today is a product of karst processes accentuated by marginal reef growth during the Holocene. Both the submerged basins and the drowned reefs represent an archive of sea-level and climate history in Hawaii during the late Quaternary.P Adaptation has emerged as an important area of research and assessment among climate change scientists. Most scholarly work has identified resource constraints as being the most significant determinants of adaptation. However, empirical research on adaptation has so far mostly not addressed the importance of measurable and alterable psychological factors in determining adaptation. Drawing from the literature in psychology and behavioural economics, we develop a socio-cognitive Model of Private Proactive Adaptation to Climate Change (MPPACC). MPPACC separates out the psychological steps to taking action in response to perception, and allows one to see where the most important bottlenecks occur-including risk perception and perceived adaptive capacity, a factor largely neglected in previous climate change research. We then examine two case studies-one from urban Germany and one from rural Zimbabwe-to explore the validity of MPPACC to explaining adaptation. In the German study, we find that MPPACC provides better statistical power than traditional socio-economic models. In the Zimbabwean case study, we find a qualitative match between MPPACC and adaptive behaviour. Finally, we discuss the important implications of our findings both on vulnerability and adaptation assessments, and on efforts to promote adaptation through outside intervention. This study included semi-structured interviews with eight practitioners who have key roles in UK coastal management. Data from the interviews were analysed using 'grounded theory', which established that sources of uncertainty in decision making are diverse but can be categorised as being modelling issues, values issues, communication and 'externalities'. At present, intuitive and implicit methods of taking uncertainty into account in decision making are much more prevalent than explicit methods. By identifying sources and implications of uncertainty, coastal managers will be in a stronger position to promote resilient systems that can cope with changing natural and social conditions. In recent years, through the availability of remotely sensed data and other national datasets, it has become possible to conduct national-scale flood risk assessment in England and Wales. The results of this type of risk analysis can be used to inform policy-making and prioritisation of resources for flood management. It can form the starting point for more detailed strategic and local-scale flood risk assessments. The national-scale risk assessment methodology outlined in this paper makes use of information on the location, standard of protection and condition of flood defences in England and Wales, together with datasets of floodplain extent, topography, occupancy and asset values. The flood risk assessment was applied to all of England and Wales in 2002 at which point the expected annual damage from flooding was estimated to be approximately (sic)1 billion. This figure is comparable with records of recent flood damage. The methodology has subsequently been applied to examine the effects of climate and socio-economic change 50 and 80 years in the future. The analysis predicts increasing flood risk unless current flood management policies, practices and investment levels are changed - up to 20-fold increase in real terms economic risk by the 2080s in the scenario with highest economic growth. The increase is attributable primarily to a combination of climate change (in particular sea level rise and increasing precipitation in parts of the UK) and increasing economic vulnerability.M While the economic debate on climate policy focuses on discounting, we do not know yet what to discount. The potential (non-discounted) socio-economic cost of climate change, indeed, is still unknown. Only a few studies have tried to estimate socioeconomic costs of climate change. Most of them concluded that, for a warming of a fewu Marine ecosystems are threatened by a suite of anthropogenic stressors. Mitigating multiple threats is a daunting task, particularly when funding constraints limit the number of threats that can be addressed. Threats are typically assessed and prioritized via expert opinion workshops that often leave no record of the rationale for decisions, making it difficult to update recommendations with new information. We devised a transparent, repeatable, and modifiable method for collecting expert opinion that describes and documents how threat,,; affect marine ecosystems. Experts were asked to assess the functional impact, scale, and frequency of a threat to an ecosystem; the resistance and recovery time of an ecosystem to a threat; and the certainty of these estimates. To quantify impacts of 38 distinct anthropogenic threats on 23 marine ecosystems, we surveyed 135 experts from 19 different countries. Survey results showed that all ecosystems are threatened by at least nine threats and that nine ecosystems are threatened by >90% of existing threats. The greatest threats (highest impact scores) were increasing sea temperature, demersal destructive fishing, and point-source organic pollution. Rocky reef, coral reef, hard-shelf, mangrove, and offshore epipelagic ecosystems were identified as the most threatene< d. These general results, however, may be partly influenced by the specific expertise and geography of respondents, and should be interpreted with caution. This approach to threat analysis can identify the greatest threats (globally or locally), most widespread threats, most (or least) sensitive ecosystems, most (or least) threatened ecosystems, and other metrics of conservation value. Additionally, it can be easily modified, updated as new data become available, and scaled to local or regional settings, which would facilitate informed and transparent conservation priority setting. There is still no universal model for analysing and predicting coastal evolution and its governing processes on yearly to decadal time scales. Instead, depending on the nature of the problem and project objectives, there is a wide range of models available, each focusing on the problem complex from a specific standpoint. The present paper gives an overview of available numerical model types. A differentiation is made between equilibrium and non-equilibrium model types as well as between longshore uniform and non-longshore uniform model types. These models are discussed in terms of their general assumptions, approaches, and applicability. Most of the model descriptions are supplemented by an illustrative example. In addition, generic issues, such as level of knowledge on different scales, selection of model type on the basis of the nature of the application, the concept of equilibrium, model validation and utilisation are discussed. A high-resolution late-Holocene sea-level record is produced from salt-marsh deposits at Vioarholmi in Sn ae fellsnes, western Iceland. The stratigraphy of Vioarholmi saltmarsh is documented using detailed descriptions of ten exposed sections and numerous hand-drilled cores. Fossil foraminifera are used as proxy sea-level indicators in an exposed section of salt-marsh peat. The agglutinated foraminifera Jadammina macrescens and Paratrochammina (Lepidoparatrochammina) haynesi are most useful as sea-level indicators because of their narrow vertical extent on the marsh surface and their good preservation in the peaty marsh deposits. We collected compaction-free sea-level index points from salt-marsh peat directly overlying the bedrock surface to establish the pre-industrial millennial-scale trend of sea-level rise and evaluate effects of autocompaction on the stratigraphy. The chronology of the sea-level reconstruction is based on tephra stratigraphy, AMS C-14, (CS)-C-137, Pb and palaeomagnetic analyses. The main tephra layer visible in the stratigraphy of Vioarholmi salt marsh is the Landnam (settlement) layer, previously dated to AD 875 +/- 6. A sea-transported pumice layer was correlated to the 'Mediaeval Layer' of AD 1226/27. Our reconstruction indicates that relative sea level along the coast of western Iceland has risen by about 1.3 m since C. AD 100. The detrended sea-level record shows a slow rise between AD 100 and 500, followed by a slow downward trend reaching a lowstand in the first half of the nineteenth century. This falling trend is consistent with a steric change estimated from reconstructions of sea-surface and sea-bottom temperatures from shelf sediments off Northern Iceland. The sea-level record shows a marked recent rise of about 0.4 m that commenced AD 1820 +/- 20 as dated by palaeomagnetism and Ph produced by European coal burning. This rapid sea-level rise is interpreted to be related to global temperature rise. The rise has continued up to the present day and has also been measured, since 1957, by the Reykjavik tide gauge. Global sea-level rise of up to 0.6 m is predicted in the next 100 years. In areas where coastal structures prevent landward migration of beaches, a major impact of sea-level rise will be a loss of beach habitat, with repercussions for beach-dependent organisms such as sea turtles. Setback regulations, which prohibit construction within a set distance from the sea, have the potential to mitigate loss of beach area by providing a buffer zone which allows for the natural movement of beaches in response to perturbation. The potential impact of a rise in sea level on 11 important sea turtle nesting beaches in Barbados under a range of setback regulations was determined. Three sea-level rise scenarios were modelled under five different setback regulations (10, 30, 50, 70 and 90 m). Beach area was lost from all beaches under all sea-level rise scenarios with a 10 and 30 m setback, from some beaches with a 50 m setback and from one beach with a 70 m setback. No beach area was lost with a 90 m setback distance. Sea turtles nest within a range of beach elevations and there was an overall loss of beach habitat within the preferred nesting elevation range with both a 10 and 30 m setback under all sea-level rise scenarios. Considerable variation in the extent of beach and nesting area loss was observed. The implementation and enforcement of adequate setback regulations have the potential to maintain the ecological and economic function of beaches in the face of extensive coastal development and sea-level rise.r The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) recently estimated that global sea level will rise from 0.18 to 0.59 m by the end of this century. Rising sea level not only inundates low-lying coastal regions but also contributes to the redistribution of sediment along sandy coasts. Over the long term, sea-level rise (SLR) causes barrier islands to migrate landward while conserving mass through offshore and onshore sediment transport. Under these conditions, coastal systems adjust to SLR dynamically while maintaining a characteristic geometry that is unique to a particular coast. Coastal marshes are susceptible to accelerated SLR because their vertical accretion rates are limited and they may drown. As marshes convert to open water, tidal exchange through inlets increases, which leads to sand sequestration in tidal deltas and erosion of adjacent barrier shorelines. The most relevant consequences of climate change upon the Portuguese mainland coast are sea level rise and changes in storminess, Most important impacts upon the coast include: increased levels of inundation and displacement of wetlands and lowlands; accelerated coastal erosion; increased storm surge and flooding accompanied by changes of the tidal regime and of the sediment budget. A future elevation of mean sea level similar to the highest IPCC 2001 scenario was assumed in this study, to yield a cautious approach that encompasses the likely relative change. Data on coastal geomorphology, land use and protection has been collected by m eans of Aerial Videotape-Assisted Vulnerability Analysis. The data set has been reorganized in natural - coastal and inland geomorphology, evolution trend - and socioeconomic attributes - protection, land use, population density and coastal development. The natural attributes together with the protection variable have been rank-ordered in terms of performance in relation to land-loss, standardized and aggregated to yield a vulnerability index. Longshore distribution of risk to land loss has been mapped using a normalized rank-index resulting from aggregation of vulnerability with a proxy of coastal value. The distribution of risk is variable at small spatial scales. However, in broad outline, the coast north of Lisbon and the Algarve ribbon of Portimao - Olhos de Agua, are characterized by the predominance of medium-high risk, the most delicate situation occurring in the central and eastern Algarve barriers. In contrast, the coast south of Lisbon to Portimao consistently displays medium to medium-low risk values. The existence and function of tidally dominated and predominantly allochthonous marshes are ultimately contingent upon the operation of hydrodynamic and sedimentary processes within constraints imposed by the available accommodation space and sediment supply. This paper re-interprets published data relating to contemporary vertical marsh growth and sea-level rise in the context of the conceptual model relating elevation, sedimentation, sea-level rise, sediment supply and tidal range. This analysis is supported b< y numerical mass balance modelling of the equivalent parameter space and of the sensitivity of marsh hydroperiod and sedimentation to sea-level and sediment supply forcing. The effect of autocompaction on the translation of sedimentation into elevation change is also considered. Parameter space modelling provides a framework for the interpretation of field data and affords indicative insights into marsh resilience to change. It is argued that the assessment of marsh response to external environmental forcing should be based not on empirical comparisons of sedimentation versus sea-level rise but on the estimation of sediment supply, and the efficiency with which this is depleted by deposition, as metrics of marsh resilience. This implies a shift towards more intensive process studies aimed at elucidating more fully the linkages between tidal marshes and adjacent estuarine and coastal systems. Model results also indicate significant variability in marsh sedimentation associated with 18.6 yr tidal modulation and meteorological processes at short-term scales. Such variability further complicates the interpretation of sedimentation or elevation change data obtained from monitoring programmes of short duration. Longer-term monitoring is of value, however, as a means of identifying important mechanisms of climate and sediment supply forcing that may contribute to the formation and maintenance of marsh sedimentary sequences. A numerical hydrodynamic model is used to investigate the sensitivity of a morphologically complex and heavily "engineered" mesotidal estuary to idealized sea-level rise scenarios and to evaluate the appropriateness of managed realignment as an adaptive response to sea-level rise. The hydrodynamic regime of the Blyth estuary (Suffolk, eastern England) is governed by a distinctive morphology that has resulted from the abandonment of a reclaimed midestuary tidal floodplain in the 1920s and 1940s. Hypsometric characteristics (extensive intertidal area and constricted inlet dimensions) make the outer estuary potentially sensitive to sea-level rise. Model results indicate that a sea-level rise of 0.3 m (as a best estimate scenario for 2050) could increase peak tidal current velocities and discharges by up to 20% and 28%, respectively. Extensive areas of potential tidal floodplain remain protected by embankments that will require upgrading to cope with sea-level rise. Realignment (or "managed retreat") of these defences can reduce local flood defence costs by eliminating unsustainable seawall but needs to be evaluated in the light of wider impacts. Modelling of hypothetical realignment scenarios shows that restoration of tidal exchange to the largest flood compartments could have an immediate effect on outer estuary hydrodynamics that is larger than worst case scenarios for half a century of accelerated sea-level rise (peak velocity and discharge increased by up to 35% and 32%, respectively). More generally, incompatibilities are apparent between flood defence and habitat restoration objectives, such that the appropriateness and feasibility of large-scale flood defence realignment could be questionable in estuarine contexts. The term `vulnerability' is used in many different ways by various scholarly communities. The resulting disagreement about the appropriate definition of vulnerability is a frequent cause for misunderstanding in interdisciplinary research on climate change and a challenge for attempts to develop formal models of vulnerability. Earlier attempts at reconciling the various conceptualizations of vulnerability were, at best, partly successful. This paper presents a generally applicable conceptual framework of vulnerability that combines a nomenclature of vulnerable situations and a terminology of vulnerability concepts based on the distinction of four fundamental groups of vulnerability factors. This conceptual framework is applied to characterize the vulnerability concepts employed by the main schools of vulnerability research and to review earlier attempts at classifying vulnerability concepts. None of these one-dimensional classification schemes reflects the diversity of vulnerability concepts identified in this review. The wide range of policy responses available to address the risks from global climate change suggests that climate impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessments will continue to apply a variety of vulnerability concepts. The framework presented here provides the much-needed conceptual clarity and facilitates bridging the various approaches to researching vulnerability to climate change.( Global warming is expected to result in an acceleration in Current rates of sea level rise, inundating many low-lying coastal arid intertidal areas. This could have important implications for organisms that depend on these sites, including shorebirds that rely on them for feeding habitat during their migrations and in winter. We modeled the potential changes in the extent of intertidal foraging habitat for shorebirds at five sites in the United States that currently-support internationally important numbers of migrating and wintering birds. Even assuming a conservative global warming scenario of 2degreesC within the next century (the most recent projections range between 1.4degreesC and 5.8degreesC), we project major intertidal habitat loss at four of the sites (Willapa Bay, Humboldt Bay, San Francisco Bay, arid Delaware Bay). Projected losses range between 20% and 70% of current intertidal habitat. Such losses might jeopardize the ability of these sites to continue to support their current shorebird numbers. The most Severe losses are likely to occur at sitcom where the coastline is unable to move inland because of steep topography or seawalls. The effects of sea level rise may be exacerbated by additional anthropogenic factors. In southern San Francisco Bay, for example, sea level rise may interact with land subsidence due to aquifer depletion, and the constraints imposed by existing seawalls on the landward migration of habitat, resulting in the greatest habitat loss. At the fifth site (Bolivar Flats) we project smaller losses as the intertidal habitat: are unconstrained by sea walls and will be able to migrate inland in response to rising sea level. Installation of additional coastal protection barriers at this site and others is likely to exacerbate the rate and extent of intertidal habitat loss.? The Northern Adriatic Coastland, between the cities of Monfalcone and Cattolica, is characterized by locations of great tourist interest, such as the Venice Lagoon and the Romagna Riviera, and areas with a very precarious environmental setting, such as the Valli di Comacchio, and the Po River Delta. Therefore, the coastal management and the design of new defence works of the littoral have to be made with the utmost care, possibly with the aid of numerical predictions of the coastal morphodynamics and the flood risk analysis of the lowland involved. In the study area, land may subside due to sediment natural compaction and subsurface fluid (water and gas) withdrawal. At the same time, littoral transport of solid material can contribute appreciably to change the shore morphology. Mean sea level may rise permanently due to global climate change (eustatism) and occasionally due to tides and intensive storm events. The predictions of each individual process is obtained using various ad hoc mathematical models and the outcome of the numerical simulations are managed with a GIS (geographical information system). Coastline evolution until the year 2100 is investigated and risk factor maps of the low-lying coastal areas are generated which account for the hazard of the expected event, and the land economic value and vulnerability._ India has good reasons to be concerned about climate change as it could adversely affect the achievement of vital national development goals related to socio-economic development, human welfare, health, energy availability and use, and infrastructure. The paper attempts to develop a framework for integrated impact assessment and adaptation responses, using a recently built railroad coastal infrastructure asset in < India as an example. The framework links climate change variables - temperature, rainfall, sea level rise, extreme events, and other secondary variables - and sustainable development variables - technology, institutions, economic, and other policies. The study indicates that sustainable development variables generally reduce the adverse impacts on the system due to climate change alone, except when they are inadequately applied. The paper concludes that development is a vital variable for integrated impact assessment. Well crafted developmental policies could result in a less-GHG intensive future, enhanced adaptive capacities of communities and systems, and lower impacts due to climate change.? Small islands are widely agreed to be vulnerable to human-induced sea-level rise during the 21st century and beyond, with forced abandonment of some low-lying oceanic islands being a real possibility. A regional abandonment of islands in the Chesapeake Bay, USA provides an historical analog of such vulnerability as this has been linked to a mid 19th Century acceleration in relative sea-level rise. Using a case study approach for Holland Island, Maryland, this hypothesis was tested using a range of physical and human historical data. While sea-level rise was the underlying driver, this analysis shows that the abandonment was more complex than a direct response to sea-level rise. Between 1850 and 1900, Holland Island was a booming community and population increased from 37 to 253, with immigration causing the majority of the increase. At the same time, the upland area where people made their homes was steadily diminishing, losing about 15 ha or 38% of the total. After 1900, the island experienced a decrease in population to 169 in 1916, with final abandonment in 1918, with the exception of one family who left by 1920. Final abandonment was triggered by this depopulation as the population fell below a level that could support critical community services, and the community lost faith in their future on Holland Island. It is likely that similar social processes determined the abandonment of the other Chesapeake Bay islands. Looking to the future, it shows that many small low-lying islands could be abandoned due to sea-level rise long before they become physically uninhabitable.u Two sea-level records from salt marshes in coastal Maine are derived from foraminiferal analyses and AAIS C-14, Pb-210, Cs-137 and pollen chronology, Both records cover the period from AD 800 until the present and show corresponding patterns of sea-level change when corrected for trends which could accommodate millennial-scale isostatic adjustments. The records provide a detailed sea-level chronology for the last few centuries and thus link the instrumental (tide-gauge) record with the long-term geological record of sea-level change. Results show that sea level was relatively stable between AD 800 and 1300 and reached a lowstand around AD 1800, which was preceded by an oscillation in the eighteenth century. Since AD 1800, sea levels in the Gulf of Maine have risen by 0.3-0.4 m. The onset of this rise corresponds with regional climatic warming and could be interpreted as thermal expansion of the Gulf of Maine and North Atlantic sea surface. Sea-level rise possibly slowed temporarily during the mid-nineteenth century, but twentieth-century rates are unprecedented in the last millennium and correspond with hemispheric warming.c The Portuguese coastline has a high diversity of coastal types, which will react differently to an accelerated sea-level rise. Estuaries and coastal lagoons will be most affected by a rising sea level. Amongst these, the Sado and Tagus estuaries and the Ria de Aveiro and the Ria Formosa coastal lagoons are probably the ones where socioeconomic impacts resulting from accelerated sea-level rise would be greatest. Sandy shores will face increased erosion. However, it is likely that at this type of coast other factors, such as sand deficiency caused by damming river basins, will continue to play a larger role in erosion than accelerated sea-level rise. Hard rocky coasts will be the least affected by accelerated sea-level rise. Specific adaptation policies for accelerated sea-level rise impacts do not presently exist in Portugal. However, existing laws can be used to prevent and/or reduce socioeconomic impacts if they are strictly applied. A strong commitment to coastal management by Portuguese authorities is therefore necessary in order to prevent and minimise future implications of accelerated sea-level rise. The integration of climate change adaptation considerations into management of the coast poses major challenges for decision makers. This article reports on a case study undertaken in Christchurch Bay, UK, examining local capacity for strategic response to climate risks, with a particular focus on issues surrounding coastal defense. Drawing primarily on qualitative research with local and regional stakeholders, the analysis identifies fundamental disjunctures between generic concerns over climate change and the adaptive capacity of local management institutions. Closely linked with issues of scale, the problems highlighted here are likely to have broad and continuing relevance for future coastal management elsewhere. The goods and services that mangrove forests provide to society are widely understood but may be too generally stated to serve as useful guidelines in decision-making. Understanding the differences between fringe, riverine, and basin forests map help to focus these guidelines and to determine the best use of a particular forest. Fringe mangroves are important primarily for shoreline protection. Riverine forests, which are likely to be the most productive of the three types of forests, are particularly important to animal and plant productivity, perhaps because of high nutrient concentrations associated with sediment trapping. Basin forests serve as nutrient sinks for both natural and anthropogenically enhanced ecosystem processes and are often important sources of wood products. Exploitation of a forest for one particular reason may make it incapable of providing other goods and services. The author analyses the relative role of protection (or damage mitigation) expenditures within the total costs associated with raised sea levels induced by climate change. A rule of thumb is derived to approximate the optimal level of protection. Economic efficiency requires that protection expenditures are designed such that the sum of protection costs plus remaining land-loss damage is minimised. The optimal protection level will depend on the relative importance of dryland loss compared with the costs of accelerated wetland loss plus protection expenditures. This framework is then used to estimate the damage-cost functions associated with a sea-level rise for the countries of the OECD.{ This paper discusses some of the elements that may characterise an efficient strategy to adapt to a changing climate. Such a strategy will have to reflect the long time horizon of, and the prevailing uncertainties about, climate change. An intuitively appealing approach therefore seems to be to enhance the flexibility and resilience of systems to react to and cope with climate shocks and extremes, as well as to improve information. In addition, in the case of quasi-irreversible investments with a long lifetime (e.g. infrastructure investments, development of coastal zones) precautionary adjustments may be called for to increase the robustness of structures, or to increase the rate of depreciation to allow for earlier replacement. Many of these measures may already have to be considered now, and could be worthwhile in their own right, independent of climate change considerations.P This study estimates the loss in welfare of projected Louisiana coastal wetlands disintegration. Various programs have initiated costly projects to terminate this disintegration process. But can these projects succeed, and will their benefits exceed their costs' This study addresses the benefits issues and estimates reductions in incomes and consumption opportunities and increases in costs that would be avoided if r< estoration and enhancement projects are successful. Estimated welfare losses that would be avoided do not include non-user and lifestyle losses, which may be very important, and they do not include the costs of dismantling coastal infrastructure. These exclusions make the estimates of this study minimum estimates of welfare losses. Future economic welfare losses represent a 1990 present value in a range between $5.9 and $24.3 billion, depending upon discount rates and whether low or high loss estimates are used. In order to make these estimates more meaningful, the implied wetlands values were calculated on a per acre basis. These values ranged from $8,437 to $15,763 per acre.E Tuvalu, a place whose image in the 'West' is as a small island state, insignificant and remote on the world stage, is becoming remarkably prominent in connection with the contemporary issue of climate change-related sea-level rise. My aim in this paper is to advance understanding of the linkages between climate change and island places, by exploring the discursive negotiation of the identity of geographically distant islands and island peoples in the Australian news media. Specifically, I use discourse analytic methods to critically explore how, and to what effects, various representations of the Tuvaluan islands and people in an Australian broadsheet, the Sydney Morning Herald, emphasize difference between Australia and Tuvalu. My hypothesis is that implicating climate change in the identity of people and place can constitute Tuvaluans as 'tragic victims' of environmental displacement, marginalizing discourses of adaptation for Tuvaluans and other inhabitants of low-lying islands, and silencing alternative constructions of Tuvaluan identity that could emphasize resilience and resourcefulness. By drawing attention to the problematic ways that island identities are constituted in climate change discourse in the news media, I advocate a more critical approach to the production and consumption of representations of climate change. Much of America's coastline is threatened by overdevelopment and coastal erosion, driven by global sea-level rise, a problem that is attracting the attention of researchers around the world. Although we have now acknowledged the impending risks, little is known about the response of spatially dependent dune plant communities to the loss or restriction of their habitat. In order to study this development, a spatially explicit model of sand dune plant succession on Galveston Island, Texas, was created, using sea-level rise as the primary mechanism causing local erosion. Simulations of sea-level rise scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change demonstrated that beach erosion constrained plants to a narrow area, resulting in a breakdown of the successional process. The loss of late-succession plants along coastlines, their dependent faunal species, and possible solutions are discussed. This model and example serves as a harbinger of the future for many of the US's sandy beaches and coastal communities. The 2.7-2.0 Ga volcano-sedimentary records of the African, Indian and Australian cratons indicate two broadly defined periods of extensive drowning of the emergent continental areas, concomitant with lowered freeboard. Carbonate-banded iron formation (BIF) platforms characterised the first such event, at ca 2.6-2.4 Ga (Africa and Australia) to 2.7 Ga (India). These earlier globally enhanced sea levels are ascribed to increased mid-ocean ridge activity, possibly related to breakup of a postulated Late Archaean 'southern' supercontinent. Alternatively, a transition from global-scale catastrophic mantle overturn events to the onset of plate tectonics may have occurred in the Late Archaean (Nelson, 1998. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 158, 109-119). Both explanations of increased mid-ocean ridge activity are compatible with significant Early to Middle Archaean crustal growth (Armstrong, 1981. Phil. Trans. R Soc. London A 301, 443-472), with the emergent high freeboard cratons being subjected to aggressive weathering and erosion. Enhanced continental crustal growth near the Archaean-Proterozoic boundary (McLennan and Taylor, 1982. J. Geol. 90, 347-361), related to the development of significant island are complexes, would have resulted in common lowered freeboard-enhanced sea level conditions at the passive margins of the 'southern' cratons. The diachronous nature of these earlier transgressions in the Various cratons may reflect the effect of local tectonic movements and/or the thermal state of the cratons. From ca 2.4-2.2 Ga, cratons that make up the present-day continents of India, Africa and Australia had relatively high continental freeboard and lowered sea levels. Glacigenic deposits are preserved on the Kaapvaal (Africa), Singhbhum (India) and Pilbara (Australia) cratons. The second broadly defined drowning event, at ca <2.2 and >2.15 Ga, was probably due to post-glacial climatic amelioration. Freeboard was reduced by the combination of eustatic rise and the reestablishment of aggressive weathering as warmer palaeoclimates returned. In India, carbonates were more prominent than the siliciclastic sediments (including prominent black shales) seen in Africa and Australia. Many of the urban poor in Africa face growing problems of severe flooding. Increased storm frequency and intensity related to climate change are exacerbated by such local factors as the growing occupation of floodplains, increased runoff from hard surfaces, inadequate waste management and silted-up drainage. One can distinguish four types of flooding in urban areas: localized flooding due to inadequate drainage; flooding from small streams within the built-up area; flooding from major rivers; and coastal flooding. ActionAid undertook participatory vulnerability analysis in five African cities, to explore local people's perceptions of why floods occur, how they adjust to them, who is responsible for reducing the flood risk and what action the community itself can take. While local people adapt to floods, recognition of local, national and international governments' and organizations' responsibility to act to alleviate flooding and its causes, especially the consequences of climate change, is urgently needed. Use of coastal armoring is expected to escalate in response to the combination of expanding human populations, beach erosion, and sea level rise along the coasts. To provide a conceptual framework, we developed hypotheses concerning the ecological effects of beach habitat loss associated with coastal armoring. As beaches narrow in response to armoring, dry upper intertidal zones should be lost disproportionately, reducing the habitat types available and the diversity and abundance of macroinvertebrates. Predators, such as shorebirds, could respond to a combination of (i) habitat loss; (ii) decreased accessibility at high tides; and (iii) reduced prey availability on armored beaches. To examine those predictions, zone widths and the distribution and abundance of macroinvertebrates and birds were compared on paired armored and unarmored segments of narrow bluff-backed beaches in southern California. Our results supported the predictions and revealed some unexpected effects of armoring on birds. Dry upper beach zones were lacking and mid-beach zones were narrower (> 2 times) year-round on armored segments compared to adjacent unarmored segments. The abundance, biomass and size of upper intertidal macroinvertebrates were also significantly lower on armored segments. Shorebirds, most of which were foraging, responded predictably with significantly lower species richness (two times) and abundance (> 3 times) on armored segments. Gulls and other birds (including seabirds), which use beaches primarily for roosting, were also significantly lower in abundance (> 4 times and > 7 times respectively) on armored segments, an important unexpected result. Given the accelerating pressures on sandy beaches from coastal development, erosion and rising sea levels, our results indicate that further investigation of ecological responses to coastal armoring is needed for the management and conservatio< n of these ecosystems. Conservation managers need to be able to assess and prioritize issues that may affect their target habitats and species. In the Baie de Somme, France, conservation issues affecting overwintering shorebirds include hunting pressure, cockle fishing, recreational disturbance, Spartina encroachment, and changing sediment levels. We used an individual-based model to predict the effect of these issues on the survival of three shorebird species: dunlin Calidris alpina, oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus and curlew Numenius arquata. In the model, removing hunting from the mudflats in the eastern part of the estuary had the greatest positive effect on shorebird survival. Oystercatcher survival decreased markedly when stocks of large cockles were reduced to < 250 m(-2) or numbers of fishermen per day were doubled. Short-term disturbance events, such as walkers, had more effect on shorebird survival than long-term events, such as fishermen. Dunlin, as a protected species, were able to feed outside the Reserve Naturelle and were unaffected by disturbance within the Reserve. Oystercatcher survival decreased when the number of disturbance events within the Reserve exceeded one h(-1), and curlew survival when disturbance events exceeded six h(-1). Spartina encroachment caused dunlin survival to decline steadily as feeding habitat was lost. Dunlin were also the species most affected by changes in sediment levels, likely to occur through either sedimentation or sea level rise. As increasing numbers of the global population gravitate toward the coasts, pressure mounts on ecosystems and the infrastructure at coastal locations. In the coastal zone many problems have arisen, including coastal population growth and degradation of natural capital, from the neglect of the four capitals that enhance sustainability: natural, built, social and human. New strategies need to be devised that will allow coastal communities to continue to live in these regions without further degrading natural capital. The Brundtland which was further advanced at United Nations Report initiated the idea of sustainability, meetings in Stockholm (1972) and Rio de Janeiro (1992). Following these meetings and the adoption of Agenda 21, concern about growing pressures on the oceans lead to an Independent World Commission on the Oceans (IWCO) workshop where a number of Principles for Sustainable Governance of the Oceans (Costanza, R., Andrade, F., et al., 1998) were developed. In the light of recent coastal disasters such as the Indonesian Tsunami (2004) and Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (2005), this paper examines the current problems inherent in the coastal zone and attempts to develop new principles for sustainability using the IWCO derived principles as a springboard. Concerns surrounding possible future climate change, sea level rise, and their potential impacts on coastal environments, have stimulated research seeking to elucidate the relationship between ocean levels and climate at the (sub)century-scale. The need for increasingly precise reconstructions of relative sea-level change has, in-turn, driven the development of new methodologies capable of resolving fine-scale variability within salt-marsh sedimentary sequences. The use of salt-marsh foraminifera, as precise indicators of past tide levels has played a central role in this process and is exemplified by a number of detailed studies conducted in Connecticut, USA. In this paper, we apply the most recent methodological advance in the reconstruction of relative sea-levels using salt-marsh foraminifera. We develop a foraminiferal transfer function for tide level, derived from the modem foraminiferal distributions of four Connecticut salt-marshes.. Effects of global warming on marine ecosystems are far less understood than they are in terrestrial environments. Macrophyte-based coastal ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to global warming, because they often lack species redundancy. We tested whether summer heat waves have negative effects on an ecologically important ecosystem engineer, the eelgrass Zostera marina L., and whether high genotypic diversity may provide resilience in the face of climatic extremes. In a mesocosm experiment, we manipulated genotypic diversity of eelgrass patches fully crossed with water temperature (control vs. temperature stress) over 5 mo. We found a strong negative effect of warming and a positive effect of genotypic diversity on shoot densities of eelgrass. These results suggest that eelgrass meadows and associated ecosystem services will be negatively affected by predicted increases in summer temperature extremes. Genotypic diversity may provide critical response diversity for maintaining seagrass ecosystem functioning, and for adaptation to environmental change.> Types, distribution, and origin of recent sand dunes between Rosetta and Idku, in the western sector of the Nile Delta, Egypt were investigated. Sand samples from the dunes, beach, and seafloor were studied for grain size distribution and mineralogical composition. It has been found that most of the dunes in the study area have been subjected to deterioration and removal due to the construction of buildings and the International Coastal Highway. The remnant constitutes a damaged belt of foredunes that extends from El Bouseily village to the west of Idku town. The dune's origin is interpreted to be the result of coastal drifting and the subsequent transport of sediments of the former Canopic Nile branch eastward by the predominant longshore current and by aeolian processes. The blown sand grains accumulated to form a belt of coastal sand dunes of original longitudinal and crescentic forms. Urbanization of the coast has severely altered the landscape. The study area is considered vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and the expected rise in sea level. The outcome of potential sea level rise is serious; erosion problems are expected to be exacerbated and vast areas from land and property would be lost. Thus, protection and preservation the remaining dunes in the study area are vital requirements for shore protection.c Assessment of the vulnerability of and expected socioeconomic losses over the Nile Delta coast due to the impact of sea level rise (SLR) was carried out in detail. Impacts of SLR on the Governorates of Alexandria and Port Said, in particular, were evaluated quantitatively. Options and costs of adaptation were analyzed and presented. Multi-criteria and decision matrix approaches based on questionnaire surveys were carried out to identify priorities in the 2 case studies. Results indicate that there are very limited possibilities of changing jobs for vulnerable stakeholders; cost is the main barrier of implementation; the majority of stakeholders recommend protection actions; and beach nourishment with limited hard structures (groins and breakwaters) is the best immediate option for adaptation, while the ICZM approach is the best available strategic option. We review historical, current, and projected future impacts of four classes of anthropogenic disturbance-extraction, pollution, reclamation, and changing climate-on Caribbean mangrove ecosystems (mangal). These disturbances occur, respectively, at increasing spatial and temporal scales, and require increasing recovery rime. Small-scale selective extraction has little system-wide effect, but regeneration is slow even on single hectare clear-cuts due to rapid soil acidification. Petroleum is the primary pollutant of Caribbean mangal, and results in tree defoliation, stand death, and loss of associated sessile and mobile animal species. Hydrocarbons persist in mangrove sediments for decades, and are correlated with increasing seedling mutation rates. Chemical, industrial, and urban wastes are associated with increased heavy metal content of seedlings, stand die-back, reduced system-wide species richness, and higher incidence of Vibrio spp. (shellfish poisoning). Mangal has been reclaimed for urbanization, industrialization, and increasingly, for tourism. Overall, the region is losing mangrove forests at approximate to 1 percent per yr, although the rate is much faster< on the Caribbean mainland (approximate to 1.7% yr(-1)) than it is on the islands (approximate to 0.2% yr(-1)). The region's fisheries are declining at a similar rate, as most commercial shellfish and finfish use mangal for nurseries and/or refugia. Few Caribbean states have legislation or enforcement capabilities to protect or manage mangal, although at least 11 international treaties and conventions could be applied to conserve or sustainably use these forests. These treaties may protect riverine and basin mangal, but are likely to be moot with respect to fringing mangal, which may vanish as a consequence of global climate change. Growth enhancements of mangroves resulting from increasing atmospheric CO2 probably will not compensate for negative effects of concomitant rises in regional sea level. A study of the area, including Rosetta city and the estuary of the river Nile (Rosetta branch), has been carried out for assessment of the impact of sea level rise (sir). A geographic information system (GIS) has been built including layers of land use, topography, archeological sites, land cover and population. Analysis of data has been carried out to assess vulnerability of various land use and land cover classes to the impact of sea level rise. Because the area under study has geomorphic relief profiles just over the sea level, inundation of total land could reach 26% of total study area due to only half a meter rise in sea level. This lost area includes 32% of urban clusters mainly used for human shelter and contains 52% of present monuments, 25% of valuable high quality dense palm trees cultivation, 75% of beaches and 19% of lands suitable, 25% of valuable high quality dense palm trees cultivation, 75% of beaches and 19% of lands suitable for agricultural reclamation (although suffering from salt water intrusion and soil salinization). This is expected to cause a significant impact on the present population, economic activities, total regional revenue, and also on tourism. At 1.1 m sea level rise, 72% to total study area could be inundated. This area contains all beaches, half of the palm cultivation, 43% of total urban clusters, which includes 81% of the monumental sites and historic buildings. Other environmental problems such as solid waste management, sanitary disposal network, deteriorating conditions of some monumental structures, in addition to the sea level rise act negatively on the environmental quality of the urban community. Future plans for urban expansion in the area must be studied carefully in order to preserve valuable palm lands and maintain and protect monuments and historic sites which help the promotion of tourism. An environmental management program is essential for upgrading tourism, promoting urban development and protecting coastal lands./ A survey of the derailed quantitative assessment of the vulnerability of the Nile delta coast of Egypt to the impacts of sea level vise, is presented. GIS and remote-sensing techniques are used together with ground-based surveys to assess vulnerability of the most important economic and historic centers along the coast, the cities of Alexandria, Rosetta and Port-Said. Results indicate that, in these cities alone, over 2 million people will have to abandon their homes, 214000 jobs and over $35.0 billion in land value, property, and tourism income may also be lost due to a SLR of 50 cm. The loss of the world famous historic, cultural and archeological sites is unaccountable. The vulnerability of other low land in Egypt outside these cities remains to be assessed. Development of institutional capabilities for ICZM and upgrading awareness are highly recommended for adaptation in the long run. Periodic nourishment of Alexandria and Rosetta beaches, detached break waters for Polt-Said, and sand dune fixation are the recommended no regrets management measures.f It is well established that sea level trends obtained from tide gauge records shorter than about 50-60 years are corrupted by interdecadal sea level variation. However, only a fraction (<25%) of even the long records exhibit globally consistent trends, because of vertical crustal movements. The coherent trends are from tide gauges not at collisional plate boundaries, and not located in or near areas deeply ice-covered during the last glaciation. Douglas (1991), using ICE-3G values for the postglacial (PGR) rebound correction, found 21 usable records (minimum length 60 years, average 76) in 9 oceanographic groups that gave a mean trend for global sea level rise of 1.8 mm/yr +/- 0.1 for the period 1880-1980. In that analysis, a significant inconsistency of PGR-corrected U.S. east coast trends was noted, but not resolved. Now, even after eliminating those trends, more (24) long records (minimum 60 years, average 83) are available, including series in the southern hemisphere not previously used. The mean trend of 9 groups made up of the newly-selected records is also 1.8 mm/yr +/- 0.1 for global sea level rise over the last 100+ years. A somewhat smaller set of longer records in 8 groups (minimum 70 years, average 91) gives 1.9 mm/yr +/- 0.1 for the mean trend. These values are about an order of magnitude larger than the average over the last few millennia. The recent (in historical terms) dramatic increase in the rate of global sea level rise has not been explained, and no acceleration during the last century has been detected. This situation requires additional investigation and confirmation. VLBI/GPS/absolute gravity measurements of crustal motions can be employed to correct many long (60+ years) tide gauge records not now usable because of vertical crustal movements, improving the geographic coverage of sea level trends. Direct altimetric satellite determinations of global sea level rise from satellites such as TOPEX/POSEIDON and its successors can provide an independent estimate in possibly a decade or so, and thereby ascertain whether or not there has been any recent change in the rate of global sea level rise. For some decades, the Mondego estuary has been under severe ecological stress, mainly caused by eutrophication. The most visible effect was the occurrence of macroalgal blooms and the concomitant decrease of the area occupied by Zostera noltii beds. Since the end of 1998, mitigation measures were implemented in the estuary to promote the recovery of the seagrass beds and the entire surrounding environment. The present study offers a unique opportunity to evaluate the impact of disturbance and the success of the initial recovery process (before and after implementation of the management measures), over a 10-year period, having secondary production as the descriptor. Before the implementation of the mitigation measures, in parallel with the decrease of the Z. noltii beds, species richness, mean biomass and production also decreased, lowering the carrying capacity of the whole Mondego's south arm. Yet, after the introduction of management measures, the seagrass bed seemed to recover. Consequently, the biomass and production also increased substantially, for the whole intertidal area. Nevertheless, even after the mitigation measures implementation, natural-induced stressors, such as strong flood events induced a drastic reduction of annual production, not seen before the implementation of those measures. This shows that the resilience of the populations may have been lowered by a prior disturbance history (eutrophication) and consequent interactions of multiple stressors. Changes in the climate system's energy budget are predominantly revealed in ocean temperatures(1,2) and the associated thermal expansion contribution to sea-level rise(2). Climate models, however, do not reproduce the large decadal variability in globally averaged ocean heat content inferred from the sparse observational database(3,4), even when volcanic and other variable climate forcings are included. The sum of the observed contributions has also not adequately explained the overall multi-decadal rise(2). Here we report improved estimates of near-global ocean heat content and thermal expansion for the upper 300 m and 700 m of the ocean for 1950-2003, using statistical te< chniques that allow for sparse data coverage(5-7) and applying recent corrections(8) to reduce systematic biases in the most common ocean temperature observations(9). Our ocean warming and thermal expansion trends for 1961-2003 are about 50 per cent larger than earlier estimates but about 40 per cent smaller for 1993-2003, which is consistent with the recognition that previously estimated rates for the 1990s had a positive bias as a result of instrumental errors(8-10). On average, the decadal variability of the climate models with volcanic forcing now agrees approximately with the observations, but the modelled multi-decadal trends are smaller than observed. We add our observational estimate of upper-ocean thermal expansion to other contributions to sea-level rise and find that the sum of contributions from 1961 to 2003 is about 1.5 +/- 0.4 mm yr(-1), in good agreement with our updated estimate of near-global mean sea-level rise (using techniques established in earlier studies(6,7)) of 1.6 +/- 0.2 mm yr(-1).@ The distribution of New England salt marsh communities is intrinsically linked to the magnitude, frequency, and duration of tidal inundation. Cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora) exclusively inhabits the frequently flooded lower elevations, whereas a mosaic of marsh hay (Spartina patens), spike grass (Distichlis spicata), and black rush (Juncus gerardi) typically dominate higher elevations. Monitoring plant zonal boundaries in two New England salt marshes revealed that low-marsh cordgrass rapidly moved landward at the expense of higher-marsh species between 1995 and 1998. Plant macrofossils from sediment cores across modern plant community boundaries provided a 2,500-year record of marsh community composition and documented the migration of cordgrass into the high marsh. Isotopic dating revealed that the initiation of cordgrass migration occurred in the late 19th century and continued through the 20th century. The timing of the initiation of cordgrass migration is coincident with an acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise recorded by the New York tide gauge. These results suggest that increased flooding associated with accelerating rates of sea-level rise has stressed high-marsh communities and promoted landward migration of cordgrass. If current rates of sea-level rise continue or increase slightly over the next century, New England salt marshes will be dominated by cordgrass. If climate warming causes sea-level rise rates to increase significantly over the next century, these cordgrass-dominated marshes will likely drown, resulting in extensive losses of coastal wetlands.3 We construct a high-resolution relative sea-level record for the past 700 years by dating basal salt-marsh peat samples above a glacial erratic in an eastern Connecticut salt marsh, to test whether or not the apparent recent acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise (SLR) is coeval with climate warming. The data reveal an average SLR rate of 1.0 +/- 0.2 mm/year from about 1300 to 1850 A. D. Coupling of the regional tide-gauge data (1856 to present) with this marsh-based record indicates that the nearly three-fold increase in the regional rate of SLR to modern levels likely occurred in the later half of the 19th century. Thus the timing of the observed SLR rate increase is coincident with the onset of climate warming, indicating a possible link between historic SLR increases and recent temperature increases. A review of the difficulties associated with the definition of coastal flood frequencies and magnitudes leads to a recognition that there is considerable doubt in many parts of the world as to the precise nature of this particular hazard. Similarly, a review of the sea-level measurements that have been used to indicate a response to global warming shows that there is uncertainty about the amount of other controlling influences. What is clear; however are that past management decisions about human endeavours in the coastal zone (including flood defences, occupance of flood-prone lands, extraction of ground water and natural gas) have had an impact on relative land and sea levels and have done more to increase the risk of coastal flooding than can be assigned so far to global warming. In addition, these changes induced by human activity may render inappropriate calculations of coastal-flood frequencies based on historical records since the latter relate to a period of time when the controls on flooding may have been very different.6 Greenhouse warming scenarios commonly forecast an acceleration of sea level rise in the next 5 or 6+ decades in the range 0.1-0.2 mm/yr2. Long tide gauge records (75 years minimum) have been examined for past apparent sea level acceleration (i.e., deviation from a purely linear rise) and for indication of how long it might take to detect or verify a predicted future acceleration. For the 80-year period 1905-1985, 23 essentially complete tide gauge records in 10 geographic groups are available for analysis. These yielded the apparent global acceleration -0.011 (+/-0.012) mm/yr2. A larger, less uniform set of 37 records in the same 10 groups with 92 years average length covering the 141 years from 1850 to 1991 gave for acceleration 0.001 (+/-0.008) mm/yr2. Thus there is no evidence for an apparent acceleration in the past 100+ years that is significant either statistically, or in comparison to values associated with global warming. Estimating how well a global acceleration parameter could be determined in a relatively short time was accomplished by dividing the 1905-1985 data set into four equal time spans. The formal 1-sigma uncertainty (about 0.2 mm/yr2) of global acceleration from these 20-year periods is more than an order of magnitude larger than for the 80- and 141-year cases owing to the existence of large interdecadal and longer variations of sea level. This means that tide gauges alone cannot serve as a leading indicator of climate change in less than at least several decades. Confirming the prediction of a particular model at the 95% confidence level or differentiating between model predictions will take much longer. The time required can be significantly reduced if the interdecadal fluctuations of sea level can be understood in terms of their forcing mechanisms and then removed from the tide gauge records. This paper discusses the concept of vulnerability as characterized in the climate change literature and presents a framework for assessing adaptive capacity. The framework recognizes inherent susceptibilities of human-environment systems exposed to climate variability and change. As climate change impacts are unevenly distributed among and within nations, regions, communities and individuals due to differential exposures and vulnerabilities, the framework highlights determinants of adaptive capacity at the local scale and situates them within larger regional, national and international settings. Determinants include: access and distribution of resources, technology, information and wealth; risk perceptions; social capital and community structure;, and institutional frameworks that address climate change hazards. This broader approach contrasts typical impact assessments that focus largely on reducing economic detriments of change. The framework provides a methodological starting point that, as a community-based or 'bottom-up' approach, yields important insight on local responses to climate change. It also recognizes that short-term exposure to variability is an important Source of vulnerability superimposed on long-term change. At the community level, perceptions and experiences with climate extremes can identify inherent characteristics that enable or constrain a community to respond, recover and adapt. As such, local and traditional knowledge is key to climate change research and should be incorporated into research design and implementation. This approach provides locally relevant outcomes that could promote more effective decision-making, planning and management in remote areas susceptible to climate change hazards. As part of a larger study, this approach will be refined with local input to study sea-level rise impacts on one of Canada's < most sensitive coastlines, northeast Graham Island, Haida Gwaii (Queen Charlotte Islands), British Columbia. Preliminary evidence of changes and responses in this area are identified as a brief case study.{ This paper investigates the relationship between economic growth, biodiversity loss and efforts to conserve biodiversity using a combination of panel and cross section data. If economic growth is a cause of biodiversity loss through habitat transformation and other means, then we would expect an inverse relationship. But if higher levels of income are associated with increasing real demand for biodiversity conservation, then investment to protect remaining diversity should grow and the rate of biodiversity loss should slow with growth. Initially, economic growth and biodiversity loss are examined within the framework of the environmental Kuznets hypothesis. Biodiversity is represented by predicted species richness, generated for tropical terrestrial biodiversity using a species-area relationship. The environmental Kuznets hypothesis is investigated with reference to comparison of fixed and random effects models to allow the relationship to vary for each country. It is concluded that an environmental Kuznets curve between income and rates of loss of habitat and species does not exist in this case. The role of conservation effort in addressing environmental problems is examined through state protection of land and the regulation of trade in endangered species, two important means of biodiversity conservation. This analysis shows that the extent of government environmental policy increases with economic development. We argue that, although the data are problematic, the implications of these models is that conservation effort can only ever result in a partial deceleration of biodiversity decline partly because protected areas serve multiple functions and are not necessarily designated to protect biodiversity. Nevertheless institutional and policy response components of the income biodiversity relationship are important but are not well captured through cross-country regression analysis. The purpose of this work is to identify and quantify those stretches in the Buenos Aires province that present different degrees of risk in view of the rise of the mean sea level and to determine its nature. The study focused on the Buenos Aires province coast because its variant geomorphology represents the different morphologies along the whole of the Argentinean coastline. The aim of this article is to study the response of two of the coastal vulnerability equations to the environmental diversity and to determine which one is more suitable to be applied to the rest of the country. On verifying the equations, CV16 was found to be more appropriate for the analysis of coasts with different morphologies. Depending on the physical characteristics of each area, the consequences would include flooding and the loss of low lands in areas such as the Samborombon Bay, Bahia Blanca Estuary, and Anegada Bay, and the eroding of the beaches between Punta Rasa and Bahia Blanca. Consideration of eustatic and hydro-isostatic effects on late Quaternary sea levels in the tropical Pacific Ocean indicates that the configuration of modem atolls with emergent annular reef flats is a transient morphology not developed until post-midHolocene time. Annular atoll reefs, perchedatop carbonate platforms which cap buried volcanic edifices, are underlain by 8-28m of Holocene limestone disconformably overlying a substratum of last-interglacial or older limestone. Comparable thicknesses (9-23 m) of Holocene sediment are present beneath atoll lagoons that are uniformly <85 m deep. During glacio-eustatic drawdowns in global sea level by 120-125 m, carbonate platforms of modem atoll provinces rose abruptly from the sea as clusters of subaerial limestone plateaus flanked by steep cliffs. Modem analogues are provided by emergent atolls uplifted on the flexural arches of trench forebulges. Slow subsidence coupled with karstic erosion of emergent atolls during the last glaciation lowered the surfaces of last-interalacial reef edifices by the amounts needed to provide accommodation space for Holocene reef growth during the postglacial eustatic rise in sea level. Modem atoll reef caps began to grow after similar to9 ka when rising Holocene sea level overtopped degraded remnants of interglacial reefs, but remained submerged until carbonate buildups approached sea level in mid-Holocene time (6-4 ka). Classic atoll morphology, with circlets of multiple islets dotting annular reefs, formed in combination with late Holocene hydro-isostatic drawdown in tropical Pacific sea level in response to equatorial ocean siphoning, a facet of global isostatic adjustment (GIA) to deglaciation. Early Holocene eustatic rise in sea level and late Holocene hydro-isostatic decline in sea level combined to produce a regionally variable mid-Holocene highstand in tropical Pacific sea level that stood 1.0-2.6 m above modem sea level. Cemented mid-Holocene paleoreef flats now stranded well above sea level serve as resistant foundations for non-migratory (pinned) islets that were not present along atoll rims until after the local crossover date, when ambient high-tide level first fell below mid-Holocene low-tide level. Existing atoll landforms have a time depth generally <1-2 ka. Projections of future climate change are plagued with uncertainties, causing difficulties for planners taking decisions on adaptation measures. This paper presents an assessment framework that allows the identification of adaptation strategies that are robust (i.e. insensitive) to climate change uncertainties. The framework is applied to a case study of water resources management in the East of England, more specifically to the Anglian Water Services' 25 year Water Resource Plan (WRP). The paper presents a local sensitivity analysis (a 'one-at-a-time' experiment) of the various elements of the modelling framework (e.g., emissions of greenhouse gases, climate sensitivity and global climate models) in order to determine whether or not a decision to adapt to climate change is sensitive to uncertainty in those elements. Water resources are found to be sensitive to uncertainties in regional climate response (from general circulation models and dynamical downscaling), in climate sensitivity and in climate impacts. Aerosol forcing and greenhouse gas emissions uncertainties are also important, whereas uncertainties from ocean mixing and the carbon cycle are not. Despite these large uncertainties, Anglian Water Services' WRP remains robust to the climate change uncertainties sampled because of the adaptation options being considered (e.g. extension of water treatment works), because the climate model used for their planning (HadCM3) predicts drier conditions than other models, and because 'one-at-a-time' experiments do not sample the combination of different extremes in the uncertainty range of parameters. This research raises the question of how much certainty is required in climate change projections to justify investment in adaptation measures, and whether such certainty can be delivered. Climate scenarios have been widely used in impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments of climate change. However, few studies have actually looked at the role played by climate scenarios in adaptation planning. This paper examines how climate scenarios fit in three broad adaptation frameworks: the IPCC approach, risk approaches, and human development approaches. The use (or not) of climate scenarios in three real projects, corresponding to each adaptation approach, is investigated. It is shown that the role played by climate scenarios is dependant on the adaptation assessment approach, availability of technical and financial capacity to handle scenario information, and the type of adaptation being considered. Ireland, as an island, has a long (>7000 km), crenellate, and cliffed coastline. More than 50% of its population (ca. 5.4 million in 1998) live within 15 kin of the coastline. But most of these people are concentrated in a few major urban centres. Effectively, large areas of t< he coast have a low-density population. These factors mean that Ireland is seen as having an overall low vulnerability to the impacts of sea-level rise. Even so, about 30% of its coastal wetlands could be lost given a 1-m sea-level-rise scenario. People's valuation and awareness of the coastal environment in Ireland has been limited for much of the 20th century by factors of history and emigration. Many coastal areas have remained relatively undeveloped since the 18th and 19th centuries. In the late 20th century, an island-wide awakening to the resource potential of coastal and marine environments began to change this former neglect. In the Republic of Ireland, the Department of the Marine and Natural Resources was set up in 1988, and a separate Marine Institute was added in 1991. These developments established the coastal zone as an important element in future national strategic planning. This article examines the physical components of coastal vulnerability throughout Ireland under sea-level rise and climate change, coupled with the influences of people at the coast. These factors are placed in the context of the development of coastal zone management in Ireland and its links to reducing vulnerability." We studied the vegetation structure dynamics of mangroves, in order to contribute to an overall view on the conditions of propagule establishment from the moment they detach from the parental tree. Microtopographical measurements, quantitative data on vegetation, and propagule counts were collected in Gazi Bay (Kenya) and utilized in a 'geographical information systems' (GIS) environment where all modelling took place based on digital terrain modelling (DTM). Suitability maps were created for propagules of Rhizophora mucronata and Ceriops tagal to analyse the dispersal possibilities (through stranding or self-planting) for the present situation, and for cases of degradation and sea level change. The GIS-analyses take into account the available information derived from the field data, but alterations that go hand in hand with degradation and/or sea level changes (e.g. erosion patterns, rates of sediment supply, wave action) were not considered, since our main focus was the behaviour of propagules. We found that the study area has the potential to successfully rejuvenate at present; however, increasing anthropogenic pressure may have severe consequences on propagule dispersal within this mangrove stand, mainly through the loss of aerial root masses, as these were shown to provide stranding areas for propagules, A relatively modest rise in sea level within a time span of 20 yr could affect the distribution pattern and the specific proportion of the juvenile vegetation layer, leading to notable floristic modifications from a regional point of view. An effort has been made to assemble a data set on the evolution of coastal morphology of the West Iberian Continental Margin in Portugal, which has occur-red since the Last Glacial Maximum. In this integrated review a particular attention was given to the analyses of coastline shaping phenomena on different time scales. Several overlapping processes such as shore erosion, local sediment supply rate, climatic changes, anthropic impacts and mean sea level rise (MSLR) were identified and their combined effects assessed. The eustatic see level rise appears as a principal factor in shaping the shore line contour until mid Holocene. Since then, the non eustatic factors namely the terrigenous sediment supply rate and the dynamics of barriers and spits systems became dominant in the evolution of the near shore morphology. Since the 15th century AD, the anthropogenic activities, namely deforestation and land cultivation contributed decisively to the positive sedimentary balance in the Portuguese coastal zone. Finally, the multiple damming of the major rivers in 20th century and exploitation of sand and gravel from the river beds led to the sediment starving of the coastal zone and generalized shore line retreat. Coastal development is proceeding rapidly in the United States while at the same time coastal erosion is almost ubiquitous. The result is that dollar losses due to coastal storms and flooding are reaching economically intolerable levels. Avoiding even larger losses in the future requires effective land use management practices. These typically take the form of building setbacks to serve as protection for a time comparable to the expected lifetime of new coastal structures, usually 30 or 60 years. However, determining adequate setbacks requires estimating long-term shoreline change trends from temporally poorly sampled historical shoreline position data bases. As such, it is important to recognize these data limitations so that faulty analyses and potentially costly errors of prediction can be minimized or avoided. Since there is a well-known relationship between long-term shore retreat and sea level rise, we have used temporally complete sea level records as surrogate data sets to evaluate various shoreline prediction algorithms (e.g., end point method, linear regression, and a technique based on the minimum description length criterion). Predictions from subsets of sea level data sampled temporally to mimic shoreline data sets are compared to actual sea level values. It has been found that in a clear majority of cases, linear regression gives superior results. Predictions shaped or influenced by higher-order polynomial schemes can sometimes be superior to those obtained from linear regressions, but they can also be extremely inaccurate. Regional estimates of direct cost (DC) are commonly used to measure the economic damages of sea level rise. Such estimates suffer from three limitations: (i) values of threatened endowments are not well known, (ii) loss of endowments does not affect consumer prices, and (iii) international trade is disregarded. Results in this paper indicate that these limitations can significantly affect economic assessments of sea level rise. Current uncertainty regarding endowment values (as reflected in two alternative data sets), for example, leads to a 17 percent difference in coastal protection, a 36 percent difference in the amount of land protected, and a 36 percent difference in DC globally. Also, global losses in equivalent variation (EV), a welfare measure that accounts for price changes, ar
! " # $ % & ' ( ) * + , - . / 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 : ; < = > ? @ A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z [ \ ] ^ _ ` a b c d e f g h i j k m n o p q r s t u v w x y z { | } ~ e 13 percent higher than DC estimates. Regional EV losses may be up to 10 percent lower than regional DC, however, because international trade tends to redistribute losses from regions with relatively high damages to regions with relatively low damages. n/a A brackish water ecotone of coastal bays and lakes, mangrove forests, salt marshes, tidal creeks, and upland hammocks separates Florida Bay, Biscayne Bay, and the Gulf of Mexico from the freshwater Everglades. The Everglades mangrove estuaries are characterized by salinity gradients that vary spatially with topography and vary seasonally and inter-annually with rainfall, tide, and freshwater flow from the Everglades. Because of their location at the lower end of the Everglades drainage basin, Everglades mangrove estuaries have been affected by upstream water management practices that have altered the freshwater heads and flows and that affect salinity gradients. Additionally, interannual variation in precipitation patterns, particularly those caused to El Nino events, control freshwater inputs and salinity dynamics in these estuaries. Two major external drivers on this system are water management activities and global climate change. These drivers lead to two major ecosystem stressors: reduced freshwater flow volume and duration, and sea-level rise. Major ecological attributes include mangrove forest production, soil accretion, and resilience; coastal lake submerged aquatic vegetation; resident mangrove fish populations; wood stork (Mycteria americana) and roseate spoonbill (Platelea ajaja) nesting colonies; and estuarine crocodilian populations. Causal linkages between stressors and attributes include coastal transgression, hydroperiods, salinity gradients, and the "white zone" freshwater/estuarine interface. The functional estuary and its ecologi< cal attributes, as influenced by sea level and freshwater flow, must be viewed as spatially dynamic, with a possible near-term balancing of transgression but ultimately a long-term continuation of inland movement. Regardless of the spatio-temporal timing of this transgression, a salinity gradient supportive of ecologically functional Everglades mangrove estuaries will be required to maintain the integrity of the South Florida ecosystem. Most studies of the impacts of sea level rise (SLR) have explored scenarios of < 1 m during the 21st century, even though larger rises are possible. This paper takes a different approach and explores and quantifies the likely flood impacts in the Thames estuary for a number of plausible, but unlikely, SLR scenarios. The collapse of the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) could cause global mean sea level to rise by 5-6 m; here a time-scale for such an event of 100 years is assumed to create a worst-case scenario. Combined with the 1 in 1000 storm surge event, this would result in 1000 kW of land being frequently inundated. This area currently contains 1 million properties and their inundation would result in direct damage of at least 97.8 billion at 2003 prices. Smaller SLR scenarios, resulting from a partial collapse of the WAIS over 100 years, also have significant potential impacts, demonstrating the vulnerability of the Thames estuary to SLR. Construction of a new storm surge barrier in the outer Thames estuary is shown to provide greater resilience to unexpectedly high SLR because of the additional large flood storage capacity that the barrier would provide. This analysis has, for the first time, connected mechanisms of abrupt climate change and SLR with hydrodynamic modelling used to quantify impacts. In particular, it is recognized that future management strategies need to be adaptive and robust in order to manage the uncertainty associated with climate change. Over the past several thousand years, inputs from the Mississippi River formed the Mississippi delta, an area of about 25,000 km(2). Over the past century, however, there has been a high loss of coastal wetlands of about 4800 km(2). The main causes of this loss are the near complete isolation of the river from the delta, mostly due to the construction of flood control levees, and pervasive hydrological disruption of the deltaic plain. There is presently a large-scale State-Federal program to restore the delta that includes construction of water control structures in the flood control levees to divert river water into deteriorating wetlands and pumping of dredged sediment, often for long distances, for marsh creation. Global climate change and decreasing availability and increasing cost of energy are likely to have important implications for delta restoration. Coastal restoration efforts will have to be more intensive to offset the impacts of climate change including accelerated sea level rise and changes in precipitation patterns. Future coastal restoration efforts should also focus on less energy-intensive, ecologically engineered management techniques that use the energies of nature as much as possible. Diversions may be as important for controlling salinity as for providing sediments and nutrients for restoring coastal wetlands. Energy-intensive pumping-dredged sediments for coastal restoration will likely become much more expensive in the future. Deltas are very important ecologically and economically, and much of the would's coastal wetlands are located in deltas. These areas are in crisis because various human impacts have led to deterioration of deltas. In this article, we address the functioning of deltas, human impacts in deltas, and the concept of sustainable management of deltas. It is implicit in this discussion that only management that is based on the functioning of deltas is sustainable. In spite of sea-level rise and subsidence, deltas have greatly increased in area because of riverine sediment delivery over the past several thousand years. Recently, human impacts have altered natural pulsing energies and sediment distribution. It is clear that deltas are not being managed in a sustainable manner and there is a need to move toward more sustainable management. Such management must be based on a carefully controlled return to the natural functioning of deltas by utilizing, rather than diminishing, beneficial natural pulsing energies. We propose ways to determine if deltas are geomorphically, ecologically, and economically sustainable. The article is concluded with art EMergy analysis to holistically test for deltaic sustainability. Large parts of the coasts of Great Britain (including England, Wales, and Scotland) already experience a number of problems, including sediment starvation and erosion, loss/degradation of coastal ecosystems, and significant exposure to coastal flooding. Sea-level rise and other potential climate change will exacerbate all of these issues. Coastal management is embracing sea-level rise and climate change as one of the long-term issues that must be addressed, while recent nonstatutory guidelines are encouraging decision makers and actors alike to promote integrated coastal-zone management. Hence, preparations for adaptation to sea-level rise are more advanced than in most European coastal countries. In England and Wales, it is recommended that new coastal defences consider an allowance for accelerated sea-level rise. Strategic shoreline management plans have also been prepared, which include proposals for managed retreat (termed managed realignment) in flood-prone areas with low levels of development, and allowing continued erosion of retreating cliffs. More strategic tools for coastal management are also being developed. Future needs include a better response to the uncertainties of climate change, better guidance on managing the interaction between river flooding and sea-level rise in coastal lowlands, regional analyses of changes in coastal ecosystem stocks, and flood management for London and the Thames River. Scotland requires more basic assessment to define the key issues and needs. The vulnerability of low-lying coastal areas in Turkey to inundation was quantified based on the sea-level rise scenarios of 1, 2, and 3 m by 2205. Through digital elevation model (DEM) acquired by the shuttle radar topography mission (SRTM), the extent and distribution of the high to low-risk coastal plains were identified. The spatio-temporal analysis revealed the inundated coastal areas of 545, 1,286, and 2,125 km(2) at average rates of 5, 10, and 15 mm yr(-1) for 200 years, respectively. This is equivalent to minimum and maximum land losses by 2205 of 0.1-0.3% of the total area and of 1.3-5.2% of the coastal areas with elevations of less than 100 m in the country, respectively. This study provides an initial assessment of vulnerability to sea-level rise to help decision-makers, and other concerned stakeholders to develop appropriate public policies and land-use planning measures. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports an acceleration of the global mean sea-level rise (MSLR) in the twentieth century in response to global climate change. If this acceleration remains constant, then some coastal areas are most likely to be inundated by the year 2100. The ability to identify the differential vulnerability of coastlines to future inundation hazards as result of global climate change is necessary for timely actions to be taken. Yildiz et al. (Journal of Mapping, 17, 1 75, 2003) reported that the local MSLR in the city of Izmir rose at a rate of 6.8 +/- 0.9 mm year(-1) between 1984 and 2002. In this study, the spatial distribution of the coastal inundation hazards of Izmir region was determined using not only land-use and land-cover (LULC) types derived from the maximum likelihood classification of Landsat-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) multi-spectral image set but also the classification of the digital elevation model (DEM) acquired by the shuttle radar topography mission (SRTM). Coastal areas with elevations of 2 and 5 m above mean sea-level vulnerable to inundation were found to cover 2.1 and 3.7% of the st< udy region (6,107 km(2)), respectively. Our findings revealed that Menemen plain along Gediz river, and the settlements of Karsiyaka, Alacati, Aliaga, Candarli and Selcuk are at high risk in order of decreasing vulnerability to permanent and episodic inundation by 2100 under the high MSLR scenarios of 20 to 50 mm year(-1). This paper describes a simulation study of some of the socio-economic consequences of a rise in sea level on Dutch society. A computer simulation model for the greenhouse problem has been developed, which tries to capture the climate change cause-effect relationship for a combination of greenhouse-gas emissions. The impact of emissions of greenhouse gases on global temperature and sea-level rise can be calculated using the model. Additionally, separate, independent modules have been implemented in order to quantify the socio-economic consequences for the Netherlands. Four consistent sets of scenarios have been developed, based on differences in economic growth, energy use, international environmental measures, etc. On the basis of these scenarios estimates are made of the costs of coastal defence and water management in the Netherlands as a result of adaptation to the impacts of sea-level rise.2 Sea-level rise threatens low-lying coastal ecosystems globally. In Florida, USA, salinity stress due to increased tidal flooding contributes to the dramatic and well documented decline of species-rich coastal forest areas along the Gulf of Mexico. Here, we present the results of a study of coastal forest stand dynamics in thirteen 400 m(2) plots representing an elevation gradient of 0.58-1.1 m affected by tidal flooding and rising sea levels. We extended previously published data from 1992-2000 to 2005 to quantify the full magnitude of the 1998-2002 La Nina-associated drought. Populations of the dominant tree species, Sabal palmetto (cabbage palm), declined more rapidly during 2000-2005 than predicted from linear regressions based on the 1992-2000 data. Dramatic increases in Juniperus virginiana (Southern red cedar) and S. palmetto mortality during 2000-2005 as compared with 1995-2000 are apparently due to the combined effects of a major drought and ongoing sea-level rise. Additionally, coastal forest stands continued to decline in species richness with increased tidal flooding frequency and decreasing elevation. Stable isotope (H, O) analyses demonstrate that J. virginiana accesses fresher water sources more than S. palmetto. Carbon isotopes reveal increasing delta C-13 enrichment of S. palmetto and J. virginiana with increased tidal flooding and decreased elevation, demonstrating increasing water stress in both species. Coastal forests with frequent tidal flooding are unable to support species-rich forests or support regeneration of the most salt-tolerant tree species over time. Given that rates of sea-level rise are predicted to increase and periodic droughts are expected to intensify in the future due to global climate change, coastal forest communities are in jeopardy if their inland retreat is restricted. Estimating the likelihood of future climate change has become a priority objective within the research community. This is the case because of the advancement of science, because of user demand and because of the central role played by climate prediction in guiding adaptation policy. But are probabilities what climate policy really needs? This article reviews three key questions: (1) Why might we (not) need probabilities of climate change? (2) What are the problems in estimating probabilities? (3) How are researchers estimating probabilities? These questions are analysed within the context of adaptation to climate change. Overall, we conclude that the jury is still out on whether probabilities are useful for climate adaptation policy. The answer is highly context dependent and thus is a function of the goals and motivation of the policy analysis, the unit of analysis, timescale and the training of the analyst. Probability assessment in the context of climate change is always subjective, conditional and provisional. There are various problems in estimating the probability of future climate change, but reflexive human behaviour (i.e. actions explicitly influenced by information) is largely intractable in the context of prediction. Nonetheless, there is considerable scope to develop novel methodologies that combine conditional probabilities with scenarios and which are relevant for climate decision-making. The coastal-tract approach to coastal morphodynamics, described in the companion paper (The Coastal-Tract Part 1), provides a framework for aggregation of process and spatial dimensions in modeling low-order coastal change (i.e, evolution of the shoreline, continental shelf and coastal plain on time scales of 102 to 101 years). Behavior-oriented, coastal-change models encapsulate aggregate dynamics of the coastal tract. We apply these models in a coastal-tract framework to illustrate the use of the concept, and to explore low-order morphological coupling under different environmental settings. These settings are characterized by data-models that we have constructed from four contrasting continental margins (NW Europe, US Pacific, US Atlantic, and SE Australia). The gross kinematics of the coastal tract are constrained and steered by sediment-mass continuity. The rate of coastal advance or retreat is determined quantitatively by the balance between the change in sediment accommodation-space, caused by sea-level movements, and sediment availability. If the lower shoreface is shallower than required for equilibrium (negative accommodation), then sand is transferred to the upper shoreface (NW Europe, US Pacific, and SE Australian cases modelled) so that the shoreline tends to advance seaward. This tendency also occurs when relative sea level is falling (coastal emergence). Coastal retreat occurs when the lower shoreface is too deep for equilibrium (positive shoreface accommodation). This sediment-sharing between the upper and lower shoreface is an internal coupling that governs first-order coastal change. The upper shoreface and backbarrier (lagoon, estuary or mainland) also are coupled in first-order coastal change. Sediment accommodation-space is generated in the backbarrier by sea-level rise (and reduced by sea-level fall), but the amount of space is also moderated by influx of fine sediments from the coast, or sand and mud from fluvial sources. Remaining space can then be occupied by sand transferred from the upper shoreface causing a retreat of the latter (transgressive phases modelled for NW Europe, US Atlantic, and SE Australian cases).J Coastal classification or typology based on multidisciplinary data and multivariate analysis has recently emerged as a tool in coastal management. In this paper, eighteen published accounts of coastal classification procedures are reviewed in order to determine the reasons for such an increase, the variability between different approaches and the utility of each approach. The increase in use of such approaches to coastal classification may be linked to technological advances and widespread use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The main differences identified between the indices are in terms of scale of application, variables included, mode of analysis, mode of presentation and the nature of the risks being assessed. While many authors drew attention to limitations imposed by lack of availability of data, in general it was concluded that few indices adequately considered the physical basis for interaction between variables used in the classification procedure. In particular, while most indices recognise the need for socio-economic data, few were able to adequately incorporate such information. Those indices with the highest utility in risk assessment are considered to be those in which (a) the nature of potential perturbation and (b) the issues of management concern were clearly defined. Those in which neither is adequately defined are likely to be of use mainly as databases. A potential stepwise approach to development of specific coastal classification indices is outlined in which user needs and int< errelationships between variables are examined in the planning stage. We recommend development of a GIS-based hierarchy of coastal classifications on varying spatial scales in which resolution may be adapted and variables combined differently according to specific aspects of management concern at different spatial management levels.< A comparative analysis of estuaries, lagoons and coastal ponds focusing on population differentiation, and community structure is necessary to correctly address the issue of brackish water biology. Although the different biotopes all present similar features of environmental unpredictability and the common presence of the hypohalobic contingent (ar artenminimum), they each have their own characteristics, due to the evolution of peculiar balances in their relation to the sea on the one hand and inland waters on the other. In addition to euryhaline species, locally adapted populations of stenohaline species typical of marine habitats, as well as some recently introduced species, are also found. These species have given rise to euryhaline populations, reaching their maximum development in an optimal site. This situation occurs between basins with essentially similar ecological features and probably depends both on the different degree of adaptability of many species to a specific environmental parameter and the type of biocoenoses adjacent to the brackish basin. These populations possess genotypes allowing adaptation to brackish waters, which have resulted in the differentiation, through selection, of individuals capable of fine-grained perception of environmental unpredictability. Experimental works demonstrated the existence of genetically differentiated populations, or, ultimately, sibling species complexes, in several brackish species with broad geographical distribution and belonging to a wide range of taxonomic groups. The conceptions regarding the uniformity of brackish elements and the doubts concerning the existence of a specific brackish fauna come from the fact that attention generally focuses on species in the traditional meaning of the term, that is to sag at the macrosystematic level. Comparative analyses of very fine morpho-physiological changes and genetic analyses result in a rather different picture, leading to the conclusion that in brackish waters a given species of marine origin often consists of many different forms at various levels of differentiation. Multi-century sea-level records and climate models indicate an acceleration of sea-level rise, but no 20th century acceleration has previously been detected. A reconstruction of global sea level using tide-gauge data from 1950 to 2000 indicates a larger rate of rise after 1993 and other periods of rapid sea-level rise but no significant acceleration over this period. Here, we extend the reconstruction of global mean sea level back to 1870 and find a sea-level rise from January 1870 to December 2004 of 195 mm, a 20th century rate of sea-level rise of 1.7 +/- 0.3 mm yr(-1) and a significant acceleration of sea-level rise of 0.013 +/- 0.006 mm yr(-2). This acceleration is an important confirmation of climate change simulations which show an acceleration not previously observed. If this acceleration remained constant then the 1990 to 2100 rise would range from 280 to 340 mm, consistent with projections in the IPCC TAR.{ TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimeter data are used to estimate global empirical orthogonal functions that are then combined with historical tide gauge data to estimate monthly distributions of large-scale sea level variability and change over the period 1950-2000. The reconstruction is an attempt to narrow the current broad range of sea level rise estimates, to identify any pattern of regional sea level rise, and to determine any variation in the rate of sea level rise over the 51-yr period. The computed rate of global-averaged sea level rise from the reconstructed monthly time series is 1.8 +/- 0.3 mm yr(-1). With the decadal variability in the computed global mean sea level, it is not possible to detect a significant increase in the rate of sea level rise over the period 1950-2000. A regional pattern of sea level rise is identified. The maximum sea level rise is in the eastern off-equatorial Pacific and there is a minimum along the equator, in the western Pacific, and in the eastern Indian Ocean. A greater rate of sea level rise on the eastern North American coast compared with the United Kingdom and the Scandinavian peninsula is also found. The major sources of uncertainty are the inadequate historical distribution of tide gauges, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere, inadequate information on tide gauge signals from processes such as postglacial rebound and tectonic activity, and the short satellite altimeter record available to estimate global sea level covariance functions. The results demonstrate that tide gauge records will continue to complement satellite altimeter records for observing and understanding sea level change. Historical and projected sea-levels for islands in the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans are a subject of considerable interest and some controversy. The large variability (e.g. El Nino) signals and the shortness of many of the individual tide-gauge records contribute to uncertainty of historical rates of sea-level rise. Here, we determine rates of sea-level rise from tide gauges in the region. We also examine sea-level data from the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimeter and from a reconstruction of sea level in order to put the sparse (in space and time) tide-gauge data into context. For 1993 to 2001, all the data show large rates of sea-level rise over the western Pacific and eastern Indian Ocean (approaching 30 mm yr(-1)) and sea-level falls in the eastern Pacific and western Indian Ocean (approaching - 10 mm yr(-1)). Over the region 40 degrees S to 40 degrees N, 30 degrees E to 120 degrees W, the average rise is about 4 mm yr(-1). For 1950 to 2001, the average sea-level rise (relative to land) from the six longest tide-gauge records is 1.4 mm yr(-1). After correcting for glacial isostatic adjustment and atmospheric pressure effects, this rate is 2.0 min yr(-1), close to estimates of the global average and regional average rate of rise. The long tide-gauge records in the equatorial Pacific indicate that the variance of monthly averaged sea-level after 1970 is about twice that before 1970. We find no evidence for,the fall in sea level at the Maldives as postulated by Morner et al. (2004). Our best estimate of relative sea-level rise at Funafuti, Tuvalu is 2 +/- 1 min yr(-1) over the period 1950 to 2001. The analysis clearly indicates that sea-level in this region is rising. We expect that the continued and increasing rate of sea-level rise and any resulting increase in the frequency or intensity of extreme sea-level events will cause serious problems for the inhabitants of some of these islands during the 21st century. Evidence from the Irish Sea basin supports the existence of an abrupt rise in sea level ( meltwater pulse) at 19,000 years before the present ( B. P.). Climate records indicate a large reduction in the strength of North Atlantic Deep Water formation and attendant cooling of the North Atlantic at this time, indicating a source of the meltwater pulse from one or more Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Warming of the tropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans and the Southern Hemisphere also began at 19,000 years B. P. These responses identify mechanisms responsible for the propagation of deglacial climate signals to the Southern Hemisphere and tropics while maintaining a cold climate in the Northern Hemisphere.U Warming of the atmosphere as a result of an increased concentration of greenhouse gases is expected to lead to a significant rise is global sea level. We present estimates of the component of this sea level rise caused by thermal expansion of the ocean. These estimates are based on the idea that the upper layers of the main gyres of the ocean are ventilated by the subduction of water at higher latitudes and its subsequent equatorward and downward flow into the main thermocline along surfaces of constant "densi< ty". In this mechanism, heat enters the ocean by an advection process rather than by vertical diffusion, as in previous estimates of the component of sea level rise that is caused by thermal expansion. After the heat initially enters the subtropical gyres by subduction, it is then redistributed to preserve gradients of the depth-integrated pressure field, by an adjustment involving low vertical-mode baroclinic waves. Estimates of historical sea level rise based on this simple ventilation scheme, when combined with estimates of nonpolar glacial melt, are about equal to the observed sea level rise. For a global mean 3.0-degrees-C (1.5-degrees-C, 4.5-degrees-C) temperature rise by 2050 (and with the spatial distribution predicted by three climate models), we estimate the component of sea level rise that is caused by thermal expansion to be about 0.2 to 0.3 m (0.1 m, 0.4 m) by 2050. Low-mode internal Rossby and Kelvin waves appear to be quite efficient at distributing the sea level rise evenly over the earth without major distortions to the thermocline. A delayed warming, as suggested by transient coupled ocean-atmosphere models, can be simulated by using a smaller temperature rise, say 1.5-degrees-C rather than 3.0-degrees-C, by 2050. Changes in sea level arising from variations in the wind field could be estimated, but so far our calculations are based on the assumption that the wind stress field does not change from its present value. We estimate the maximum rate of the sea level rise caused by changes in deep water formation is 0.1 meter per century. Contributions from the cryosphere reported in the literature range from near zero to about 0.35 m. When added to the thermal expansion components, our total sea level rise scenario for 2050 for a temperature rise of 3.0-degrees-C (1.5-degrees-C to 4.5-degrees-C) is about 0.35 m (0.15 and 0.70 m).9 By reconstructing the history of water impoundment in the world's artificial reservoirs, we show that a total of similar to 10,800 cubic kilometers of water has been impounded on land to date, reducing the magnitude of global sea level (GSL) rise by -30.0 millimeters, at an average rate of -0.55 millimeters per year during the past half century. This demands a considerably larger contribution to GSL rise from other (natural and anthropogenic) causes than otherwise required. The reconstructed GSL history, accounting for the impact of reservoirs by adding back the impounded water volume, shows an essentially constant rate of rise at +2.46 millimeters per year over at least the past 80 years. This value is contrary to the conventional view of apparently variable GSL rise, which is based on face values of observation. The coastline of China stretches for about 18,000 km. China's coastal areas concentrate 70% of big cities and 41% of the total population of the nation. Fifty-five percent of the gross national product and 65% of the national industrial output are made in these areas. Although the areas occupy less than 1/7 of the total territory of China, they create more than half of the national wealth. China's coastal areas can be acclaimed as China's ''wealth-belt'', ''lifeblood-belt''. However, most of the areas are low-lying lands with relatively gentle topography. The possible harmful impact caused by the relative sea level rise on the area is studied. This study includes the increase in occurrence frequency of storm surge and flood; the extension of inundation of low-lying land; the acceleration of paralyzation of the existing drainage system; the intensification of erosion and retreat of sea shore; and the increase of the submergence of coastal areas, salt intrusion and the pollution of fresh water resources. Several factors concerning the disaster hazard evaluation for coastal areas resulting from sea level rise are discussed. They include: adopting under-estimated value of sea level rise rate; taking the economic and social developments of a coastal area as a threshold of the hazard evaluation for the area; combining sea level rise with crustal vertical movement; taking account of the capability and adequacy of the protection facilities. The index for these factors and a method of integrative hazard evaluation are presented. Finally, the data for the Chinese regional sea level rise in recent years are also summarized in the paper. The estimated value of future relative sea level rise rate in some main coastal areas of China is 5-8 mm/a. This means that the relative sea level rise in the areas may reach 30-45 cm by 2050 in general, and in a few areas, such as the Old Yellow River Delta, may be 70-80 cm. There are three large engineering works that are now under construction or to be constructed in the coming decade in the Changjiang (Yangtze) River catchment and its estuary, i.e. the Three-gorge Dam, the south-to-north water diversion schemes and the deepwater navigation channel. These engineering works are expected to reduce significantly the sediment supply into the deltaic coastal system, slow or reverse the development of the Changjiang River delta and enhance coastal erosion processes. Consequently, these changes will reduce land resources for reclamation and threaten the coastal defence, which are of primary importance for the protection of Shanghai's socio-economic development. In order to understand further the mechanism of the Changjiang delta development, especially of coastal erosion, this paper examines historical responses of the Changjiang delta growth and its shoreline movement to the sediment supply from the river basin in a millennium to decade time scale. This study shows that the deltaic growth rate has been very sensitive to the changes in sediment supply to the deltaic coastal system, though the mechanism that induced such changes may be different. Based on an estimate of 10-20% decrease in sediment discharge caused by the three engineering works, not to mention an additional impact of future global sea-level rise, it is believed that coastal erosion along the deltaic shoreline will become inevitable, resulting in a great stress on the land resource and coastal protection for Shanghai in the coming decades. The Gulf of Carpentaria is an epicontinental sea (maximum depth 70 m) between Australia and New Guinea, bordered to the east by Torres Strait (currently 12 m deep) and to the west by the Arafura Sill (53 m below present sea level). Throughout the Quaternary, during times of low sea-level, the Gulf was separated from the open waters of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. forming Lake Carpentaria, an isolation basin, perched above contemporaneous sea-level with outlet channels to the Arafura Sea. A preliminary interpretation is presented of the palaeoenvironments recorded in six sediment cores collected by the IMAGES program in the Gulf of Carpentaria. The longest core (approx. 15 m) spans the past 130 ka and includes a record of sea-level/lake-level changes, with particular complexity between 80 and 40 ka when sea-level repeatedly breached and withdrew from Gulf/Lake Carpentaria. Evidence from biotic remains (foraminifers, ostracods. pollen), sedimentology and geochemistry clearly identifies a final marine transgression at about 9.7 ka (radiocarbon years). Before this transgression, Lake Carpentaria was surrounded by grassland, was near full. and may have had a surface area approaching 600 km x 300 km and a depth of about 15 m. The earlier rise in sea-level which accompanied the Marine Isotopic Stage 6/5 transgression at about 130 ka is constrained by sedimentological and biotic evidence and dated by optical- and thermoluminescence and amino acid racemisation methods.S The detection, attribution and prediction of global and large scale regional change are goals for the Global Observing Systems of the United Nations. Coastal areas are particularly sensitive to global change, but there is a variety of limitations to universal coverage of observations. The coastal module of the Global Terrestrial Observing System (C-GTOS) considers sentinel ecosystems to address these goals for the terrestrial, wetland and freshwater ecosystems of the coast. Sentinel ecosystems for observing systems are a limited numb< er of well understood systems that have substantial datasets and are observed in a sustained fashion, forming an early warning and core system for broader regional and global change. A necessary step in the development of C-GTOS is the examination of current definitions of coastal areas by anticipated users and information providers, and identification of potential coastal networks and sites. We applied the sentinel system framework to the selection of C-GTOS observation sites from several international programs using various global delineations of coastal areas. Delineations were based on the most common definitions of the coast adopted by potential C-GTOS users and information providers, and included mapped areas of various distance from the coastline, coastal areas of low elevation, and a seaward boundary matching the Economic Exclusive Zone (EEZ). Decreases in the number of sites within each international program occurred with each definition marking area closer to the coastline. The Ramsar Convention on Wetlands demonstrates the greatest percentage of coastal sites by any definition. The process of choosing specific sentinel sites for C-GTOS continues from this initial screening, and is the next step towards the development of an in situ site network supporting the observation of global and large scale change. The determination of the present-day rate of sea level change is important for a variety of scientific and socioeconomic reasons. With over a decade of precision sea level measurements from satellite altimetry in hand and with the recent launch of new satellite missions addressing different aspects of sea level change, observationally, we have more information on sea level change than ever before. In fact, the geocentric rate of global mean sea level rise over the last decade (1993-2003) is now known to be very accurate, +2.8 +/- 0.4 mm/yr, as determined from TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason altimeter measurements, 3.1 mm/yr if the effects of postglacial rebound are removed. This rate is significantly larger than the historical rate of sea level change measured by tide gauges during the past decades (in the range of 1-2 mm/yr). However, the altimetric rate could still be influenced by decadal variations of sea level unrelated to long-term climate change, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and thus a longer time series is needed to rule this out. There is evidence that the sea level rise observed over the last decade is largely due to thermal expansion, as opposed to the influx of freshwater mass from the continents. However, estimates of thermal expansion are still sufficiently uncertain to exclude some contribution of other sources, such as the melting of mountain glaciers and polar ice. Moreover, independent measurements of total ice melting during the 1990s suggest up to 0.8 mm/yr sea level rise, an amount that could eventually be canceled by change in land water storage caused by anthropogenic activities. Another important result of satellite altimetry concerns the nonuniform geographical distribution of sea level change, with some regions exhibiting trends about 10 times the global mean. Thermal expansion appears responsible for the observed regional variability. For the past 50 years, sea level trends caused by change in ocean heat storage also show high regional variability. The latter observation has led to questions about whether the rate of 20th century sea level rise, based on poorly distributed historical tide gauges, is really representative of the true global mean. Such a possibility has been the object of an active debate, and the discussion is far from being closed. Present-day sea level changes in the Mediterranean Sea and Black Sea are studied using satellite altimetry. Analysis of altimetry data from Topex-Poseidon (T/P) between January 1993 and December 1998, and from ERS-1/2 between October 1992 and June 1996 shows that the mean rate of sea level rise is 7 +/- 1.5 mm/year over the Mediterranean Sea and 27 +/- 2.5 mm/year over the, Black Sea. The geographical distribution of the observed trends is rather uniform in the Black Sea unlike the Mediterranean Sea. There we observe, over the 6 years of analysis, a quite large (20-30 mm/year) sea level rise in the Levantine basin. In the Ionian Sea, on the other hand, a negative sea level trend is reported during that period. In the western basin, sea level trends are significantly lower, some regions rising and others falling. An Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of the sea level data is presented which confirms the main features reported above. Analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) data over the two seas and over the same time span indicates that basin-scale trends are correlated with the altimetry-derived sea level trends; however, the spatial variations of SST trends are smoother than sea level trends, the latter presenting subbasin fluctuations. The spatial correlation between sea level trends and SST trends suggests that at least part of the sea level change reported during the few years over the Mediterranean Sea and Black Sea is due to heating of surface layers. Moreover, the temperature and salinity increase reported since the early 1960s in the deep waters of the western Mediterranean basin and more recently since the early 1990s in the eastern basin may contribute to the observed sea level trend. However, the observed trends in the Mediterranean sea level for 1993-1998 may also result from the interannual/decadal variability of the upper ocean circulation that is predicted by theoretical circulation models. In the Black Sea, apart from a possible steric contribution, change in regional hydrology, in particular, a decrease in river runoff, could be responsible for observed sea level changes. Finally, we also present results of long-term sea level trends (multidecadal time scale) using tide gauge records. This paper outlines an approach to natural resource management that incorporates multiple objectives for protected area management within a decision-making framework. Both regulators and other major stakeholders are directly incorporated into the approach to enhance decision-making processes. We call this approach trade-off analysis. The approach uses a framework based on multi-criteria analysis (MCA) but involves stakeholders at all stages. This holistic approach is appropriate for multiple use, complex systems such as marine protected areas (MPAs), where many different users are apparently in conflict and where linkages and feedbacks between different aspects of the ecosystem and economy exist. The paper applies trade-off analysis to the case of Buccoo Reef Marine Park (BRMP) in Tobago. Stakeholder analysis is undertaken, and social, economic and ecological criteria identified. The impacts of four different development scenarios are evaluated for these criteria. Stakeholders are asked to weight different criteria and then the outcomes of different stakeholder weightings in the MCA are used to explore different management options. For BRMP, the MCA suggests consensus around development options characterised as limited tourism development for the area surrounding the park in association with the implementation of complementary environmental management. The approach has been used to enhance stakeholder involvement in decision-making and develop consensus-based approaches to management of the MPA.g Global warming could result in a rise in global mean sea level of 9-29 cm between 1990 and 2030. By the end of the 21st century, global mean sea level could stand 30-110 cm higher than in 1990. Those projections suggest that sea level could rise between 3 and 10 cm per decade during the next century. This is a marked acceleration over the increase of 1-2 cm per decade observed during the past century. How will local governments and citizens respond? What are the obstacles to local government and public cognition of, and response to, sea-level rise? This paper reviews some of the basic issues involved in responding to accelerated sea-level rise; the range of possible policy responses; the extent to which local governments and the public perceive and respond to threats of se< a-level rise; and the need for research into the determinants of cognition and response. Wetlands exist in a transition zone between aquatic and terrestrial environments which can be altered by subtle changes in hydrology. Twentieth century climate records show that the United States is generally experiencing a trend towards a wetter, warmer climate; some climate models suggest that this trend will continue and possibly intensify over the next 100 years. Wetlands that are most likely to be affected by these and other potential changes (e.g., sea-level rise) associated with atmospheric carbon enrichment include permafrost wetlands, coastal and estuarine wetlands, peatlands, alpine wetlands, and prairie pothole wetlands. Potential impacts range from changes in community structure to changes in ecological function, and from extirpation to enhancement. Wetlands (particularly boreal peatlands) play an important role in the global carbon cycle, generally sequestering carbon in the form of biomass, methane, dissolved organic material and organic sediment. Wetlands that are drained or partially dried can become a net source of methane and carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, serving as a positive biotic feedback to global warming. Policy options for minimizing the adverse impacts of climate change on wetland ecosystems include the reduction of current anthropogenic stresses, allowing for inland migration of coastal wetlands as sea-level rises, active management to preserve wetland hydrology, and a wide range of other management and restoration options. Recent work on climatic change indicates that the frequency and severity of flooding in many Parts of the world could increase due to major changes in the hydroclimatic regime and a continuing rise in mean sea level. Changes in the magnitude and intensity of precipitation and the timing of runoff will increase riverine flooding, including the occurrence of midwinter ice-jam floods in northern rivers. Higher sea levels will increase the likelihood of coastal flooding and problems with urban infrastructure draining to tidal estuaries. Unless action is taken to lessen the vulnerability of human settlements, flood damages will increase. Adaptation strategies are needed that identify and direct development away from flood-prone areas, and incorporate infrastructure design criteria that take a changing climate into account. In this paper, a methodological approach to developing strategies for flood management is presented. After considering the occurrence and potential consequences of floods, and the importance and means of flood management, the impacts of climate change on flood mitigation are considered. Key elements of a generic adaptive strategy for flood plain management are then proposed, and, finally, the implementation of a flood management program is discussed. Given a certain pre-existing commitment to sea-level rise due to the long thermal lags of the ocean system, several million people living in coastal areas and small islands will inevitably be displaced by the middle of the century. These climate exiles will have nowhere to go. Rather than deal with this in an ad hoc manner as the problem arises, the authors propose a mechanism by which these exiles would be given immigration benefits by countries through a formula that ties numbers of immigrants to a country's historical greenhouse gas emissions. Such a compensatory mechanism appears to be a fair way of addressing the problems faced by climate exiles.@ Long-term (>10 years) prediction of morphological behaviour in the coastal zone in response to both direct and indirect human interference and projected climatic change is an increasingly important issue in coastal management. As our recognition of the possible impacts increases, so does the need for more comprehensive model-based approaches to better assess long term impacts and plan precautionary interventions. Such models need to he integrated embracing both the morphological subsystem and the ecological subsystem, and their interactions in the coastal zone. By explicitly considering the "need for integration between different disciplines", this paper briefly describes possible approaches to modelling long-term dynamics of coastal morphology, particularly the modelling of coastal evolution in the typical situation: limited data and limited process knowledge, and further complicated by the variability of the coastal space cover and coastal space use. It is argued that progress in long-term modelling of coastal morphology will be further stimulated by adopting a conceptual framework which can embrace all the data, information, knowledge and experience concerning the coastal system of interest, whatever form they have. The objective can be accomplished by using a top-down modelling conceptual approach which helps to formalise knowledge and experience concerning the coastal area and integrate all the available data, information and models, including qualitative understanding. Qualitative modelling, which defines tendencies of evolution, offers an important tool for this goal. The overall approach lends itself to being structured into a model-based Decision Support System (DSS), coupled with Geographic Information System (GIS) technology which represent the state-of-the-art of decision support tools in the environmental field. Reliable estimates of future cliff recession are needed to assess coastal vulnerability and evaluate management policies with regard to the widespread sea-level rise thought likely to result from global warming. A research gap is identified in providing appropriate predictive methods. This paper reviews the possible effects of sea-level rise upon soft-rock cliffs over a 50-100 year planning timescale. It evaluates different methods of analysing historical recession and highlights the main assumptions and rules governing future extrapolation of retreat rates. Simple predictive models including a modification of the Bruun Rule are developed and applied to estimate cliff sensitivity to sea-level rise in southern England. The complexity of factors interacting over variable spatial and temporal scales is identified as a major problem. Irrespective of sea-level rise, recession assessments need to accommodate episodic cliff failures occurring within regular erosion cycles and differentiate instances of runaway systems change. Predictions must rely upon methods of extrapolating historical retreat. Different methods are applicable according to the presence or absence of shoreface sediments. The modified Bruun Rule appears the most appropriate for situations where cliff sediments accumulate on the shore profile. Results obtained using this model indicated that recession could increase by between 22% and 133% by 2050 according to site. Cliffs on exposed coasts and those containing high proportions of clay appear the most sensitive to change. Attention is drawn to some of the inherent uncertainties including those caused by different landslide types, lags in response and the effect of protective beaches.
A new reanalysis of the global ocean circulation is used to distinguish between the steric and eustatic components of sea level rise. Recent altimeter observations indicate an increase in the rate of sea level rise during the past decade to 3.2 mm/ yr, well above the centennial estimate of 1.5 - 2 mm/ yr. This apparent increase could have resulted from enhanced melting of continental ice or from decadal changes in thermosteric and halosteric effects. The contribution from steric effects is explored using the new eddy-permitting Simple Ocean Data Assimilation version 1.2 ( SODA1.2) reanalysis of global temperature, salinity, and sea level spanning the period 1958 - 2001. The applicability of this ocean reanalysis for sea level studies is evaluated by comparing subseasonal variability with a collection of 20 tide gauge station sea level records, comprising a total of 740 years of data. A positive relationship is found at all gauge stations, with an average correlation of r = 0.7 after correction for the inverted barometer effect. Dynamic height calculated relative to 1000m from the SODA1.2 reanalysis, u< sed as a proxy for the steric component of sea level, is compared with satellite- derived sea level for the years 1993 - 2001. During this 9- year period dynamic height increases at a global rate of 2.3 +/- 0.8 mm yr(-1), a substantial acceleration beyond the multidecadal steric rate of 0.5 mm yr(-1). The similarity of the rate of increase in the thermosteric contribution to sea level rise as well as the similarity of its spatial structure in comparison with satellite- derived sea level rise suggests that the recent acceleration in sea level rise is explainable to within the error estimates by fluctuations in warming and thermal expansion of the oceans.M California's coastal observations and global model projections indicate that California's open coast and estuaries will experience rising sea levels over the next century. During the last several decades, the upward historical trends, quantified from a small set of California tide gages, have been approximately 20 cm/century, quite similar to that estimated for global mean sea level. In the next several decades, warming produced by climate model simulations indicates that sea level rise (SLR) could substantially exceed the rate experienced during modem human development along the California coast and estuaries. A range of future SLR is estimated from a set of climate simulations governed by lower (B1), middle-upper (A2), and higher (A1fi) GHG emission scenarios. Projecting SLR from the ocean warming in GCMs, observational evidence of SLR, and separate calculations using a simple climate model yields a range of potential sea level increases, from 11 to 72 cm, by the 2070-2099 period. The combination of predicted astronomical tides with projected weather forcing, El Nino related variability, and secular SLR, gives a series of hourly sea level projections for 2005-2100. Gradual sea level rise progressively worsens the impacts of high tides, surge and waves resulting from storms, and also freshwater floods from Sierra and coastal mountain catchments. The occurrence of extreme sea levels is pronounced when these factors coincide. The frequency and magnitude of extreme events, relative to current levels, follows a sharply escalating pattern as the magnitude of future sea level rise increases.^ Pollution, mining, disruption of sand transport and tourism development widely affect sandy shores, and these systems may be subject to increased erosion in future, yet there have been few attempts to review them. The present review focuses largely on ocean sandy beaches, providing an introduction to much of the relevant literature, and predicting possible states of the system by 2025. Sandy shores are dynamic harsh environments, the action of waves and tides largely determining species diversity, biomass and community structure. There is an interchange of sand biological matter and other materials between dunes intertidal beaches and surf zones. Storms and associated erosion present the most substantial universal hazard to the fauna. Human-related perturbations vary from beach to beach; however, structures or activities that impede natural sand transport or alter the sand budget commonly lead to severe erosion, often of a permanent nature. Many beaches also suffer intermittent or chronic pollution, and direct human interference includes off-road vehicles, mining, trampling, bait collecting, beach cleaning and ecotourism. These interferences typically have a negative impact on the system. Identified long-term trends include chronic beach erosion, often largely due to natural causes, as well as increased ultraviolet (UV) radiation and changes related to global warming. It is not expected that predicted temperature changes will have dramatic effects on the world's beaches by 2025, but the expected rise in sea level, if coupled with an increase in the frequency and/or intensity of storms, as predicted for some regions, is likely to lead to escalating erosion and consequent loss of habitat. It is suggested that increased UV radiation is unlikely to have significant effects. Increases in coastal human populations and tourism, thus increasing pressure on the shore, while serious, may be largely offset in developed and developing countries by better management resulting from greater understanding of the factors governing sandy-shore systems and better communication with beach managers and developers. Beach nourishment is likely to become more widely practised. However, the continuing hardening of surfaces in and above the dunes is bound to be damaging. Human pressures in many underdeveloped countries show no signs of being mitigated by conservation measures; it is likely that their sandy shores will continue to deteriorate during the first quarter of this century. A long-term trend that cannot be ignored is the excessive amount of nitrogen entering the sea, particularly affecting beaches in estuaries and sheltered lagoons. The data presently available and the uncertainty of a number of predictions do riot permit of quantitative assessment or modelling of the state of the world's sandy shores by the year 2025, but some tentative, qualitative predictions are offered. A quantification of coastal erosion processes on a clay cliff in a cold temperate region was conducted. This study was based on a network of markers that were measured on a monthly basis from 1998 to 2003. During that period, the average retreat rate of the cliff was 1.5 m/y. Our results demonstrate that weathering is a more significant cliff retreat factor than hydrodynamic processes on fine sediment shorelines. This statement opposes conventional understanding. In fact, 65% of the annual cliff retreat took place through the winter season when the waves could not reach the foot of the cliff because of an ice foot. This erosion is caused by cryogenic processes in winter, particularly through freeze-thaw cycles, whereas desiccation and wave undercutting contributed respectively for 20% and 15% of the total annual retreat. The field measurements conducted before and after major storms, especially on October 29, 2000, illustrated that wave undercutting was negligible for the clay cliff. These results do not corroborate with previous studies showing that cliff erosion is mostly controlled by wave undercutting with negligible winter erosion. In a context of global warming, the intensity of cryogenic processes can become more important due to milder winters, an increase in the number of freeze-thaw cycles, and the reduction of the ice foot and snow cover (especially on south-facing cliffs directly exposed to solar radiation). This study demonstrates that the evaluation of sensitivity of coastal systems to climatic change should not be done just for sea-level rise and increased storminess, but also for other climatic parameters. Future research should also take into account approaches combining the studies of marine and terrestrial erosion processes. We examined the linkage between climate and interspecific plant interactions in New England salt marshes. Because harsh edaphic conditions in marshes can be ameliorated by neighboring plants, plant neighbors can have net competitive or facilitative interactions, depending on ambient physical stresses. In particular, high soil salinities, which are largely controlled by solar radiation and the evaporation of marsh porewater. can be ameliorated by plant neighbors under stressful conditions leading to facilitative interactions. Under less stressful edaphic conditions, these same neighbors may be competitors. In this paper, we use this mechanistic understanding of marsh plant interactions to examine the hypothesis that latitudinal and inter-annual variation in climate can influence the nature and strength of marsh plant species interactions. We quantified the relationship between climate and species interactions by transplanting marsh plants into ambient vegetation and unvegetated bare patches at sites north and south of Cape Cod, a major biogeographic barrier on the east coast of North America. We hypothesized that the cooler climate north of Cape Cod would lead to fewer positive interactions among marsh plants. We found both latitudinal< and inter-annual variation in the neighbor relations of marsh plants that paralleled latitudinal differences in temperature and salinity. South of Cape Cod, plant neighbor interactions tended to be more facilitative, whereas north of Cape Cod, plant neighbor interactions were more competitive. At all sites, soil salinity increased and plant neighbor interactions were more facilitative in warmer versus cooler years. Our results show that interspecific interactions can be strikingly linked to climate. but also reveal that because the sensitivity of specific species interactions to climatic variation is highly variable, predicting how entire communities will respond to climate change will be difficult, even in relatively simple, well-studied systems. We tested the hypothesis that mean intensity and temporal variability of aerial exposure exert interactive effects on temporal variance in abundances of algae and invertebrates on rocky shores of the NW Mediterranean Sea. Transplantations of assemblages to different heights on the shore were used to manipulate the aerial exposure indirectly. Different periods of residency of assemblages at each height were distributed over 2 yr to generate different levels of temporal variability of aerial exposure. Total durations of periods of emersion and submersion of organisms were kept comparable across all treatments to avoid confusion between intensity and temporal variability of aerial exposure. Interactive effects between these 2 factors were observed for some response variables (filamentous and encrusting coralline algae, Chthamalus stellatus, Patella spp. and number of taxa), with mean intensity of aerial exposure either magnifying or dampening effects of temporal variability. Specific responses were related to the life histories of the focal organisms, in particular the ability to resist and to recover from aerial exposure. The experimental design we used can help inseparating effects of shifts in mean values and temporal variances of climate variables in studies of climate change. In different parts of the Dutch Wadden Sea, relationships between intertidal level and abundance of marine macrozoobenthos were similar. Numerical densities, biomass and species richness increased from values close to 0 at the high-water level to maximum values around mean-tide level (numbers) or halfway between this level and low-tide level (biomass). Species richness hardly declined below mean-tide level, whereas mean weight per individual continued to increase from high- to low-water level. Biomass was about 45 g ash-free dry weight per in 2 at its maximum and declined in an approximately linear way to values close to 0 at the high-water level and to about 7 g per m(2) at the low-water level. These two linear relationships were used to predict biomass changes on intertidal flats of the Wadden Sea at various scenarios of sea-level rise and bottom subsidence. Net sea-level rise is expected to result in increased amounts of intertidal zoobenthos in areas with predominantly high tidal flats, but in declines in lower areas. However, such changes will occur only if sea-level rise proceeds too fast to be compensated by extra sedimentation. Bottom subsidence as a consequence of gas extraction is expected to be too small to cause any measurable change in the benthic fauna.) Coastal areas of the northwestern Adriatic Sea, covering a surface of almost 2,400 square kilometers along over 300 ion of coast between Monfalcone and Cattolica, are depressed below sea level They are therefore most of these areas, especially near the Po Delta area, where an altitude of over 2.5 m was lost in some exposed to the risk of flooding by sea surges and rivers. Man-induced or natural subsidence has affected places during the past century. in this paper, an assessment is made of near-future relative sea-level changes which may occur during the next century, owing to unavoidable additional land subsidence and to the eustatic rise predicted by climatic models. Even in the absence of new human activities triggering land-subsidence processes, the additional loss in land level in relation to sea level is expected to vary by the year 2100 from about 0.5 m near the lagoons of Venice and of Marano-Grado to about 0.6 m near Ravenna and Cervia and to as much as 1.5 m in certain areas of the Po Delta In a slightly deeper Adriatic Sea, tidal amplitudes will fortunately not increase and see surges caused by Sirocco winds me not expected to become worse than today; they, however, will develop above locally higher sea levels. Many areas will he more at risk during the next century than today; a few significant case studies, each of them representing specific problems, are analysed: the Ausa-Corno industrial area inland from the Marano-Grado Lagoon, the historic center of the City of Venice, two sample areas in the Po Delta area, and the Ravenna-Ceria area.D This article examines the vulnerability of US coastal counties to erosion by combining a socioeconomic vulnerability index with the US Geological Survey's physically based coastal vulnerability index. The end product is a county-based index of overall coastal place vulnerability. The results indicate that place vulnerability along the coast is highly differentiated and influenced by a range of social, economic, and physical indicators. Regionally, Gulf Coast vulnerability is more of a product of social characteristics rather than physical attributes. The opposite is true of Pacific and Atlantic coastal counties, where physical characteristics are more influential in determining erosion-hazard vulnerability. It is clear that overall vulnerability of coastal counties cannot be determined without the union of social, economic, built-environment, and physical characteristics. Yet the methods for combining these components are not widely used at present by coastal scientists and policy makers, rendering hazards assessments incomplete and mitigation plans untenable for many places. Climate change is projected to cause severe economic losses, which has t he potential to affect the insurance sector and public compensation schemes considerably. This article discusses the role insurance can play in adapting to climate change impacts. The particular focus is on the Dutch insurance sector, in view of the Netherlands being extremely vulnerable to climate change impacts. The usefulness of private insurance as an adaptation instrument to increased flood risks is examined, which is currently unavailable in the Netherlands. It is questioned whether the currently dominant role of the Dutch government in providing damage relief is justified from an economic efficiency perspective. Characteristics of flood insurance arrangements in the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France are compared in order to identify possible future directions for arrangements in the Netherlands. It is argued that social welfare improves when insurance companies take responsibility for part of the risks associated with climate change. The economy-wide implications of sea level rise in 2050 are estimated using a static computable general equilibrium model. This allows for a better estimate of the welfare effects of sea level rise than the common direct cost estimates; and for an estimate of the impact of sea level rise on greenhouse gas emissions. Overall, general equilibrium effects increase the welfare costs of sea level rise, but not necessarily in every sector or region. In the absence of coastal protection, economies that rely most on agriculture are hit hardest. Although energy is substituted for land, overall energy consumption falls with the shrinking economy, hurting energy exporters. With full coastal protection, GDP increases, particularly in regions with substantial dike building, but utility falls, least in regions that protect their coasts and export energy. Energy prices rise and energy consumption falls. The costs of full protection exceed the costs of losing land. The results also show direct costs - the usual method for estimating welfare changes due to sea level rise - are a bad approximation of the general equilibrium welfare effects; previou< s estimates of the economic impact of sea level rise are therefore biased.8 Salt marshes continue to degrade in the United States due to indirect human impacts arising from tidal restrictions. Roads or berms with inadequate provision for tidal flow hinder ecosystem functions and interfere with self-maintenance of habitat, because interactions among vegetation, soil, and hydrology within tidally restricted marshes prevent them from responding to sea level rise. Prediction of the tidal range that is expected after restoration relative to the current geomorphology is crucial for successful restoration of salt marsh habitat. Both insufficient (due to restriction) and excessive (due to subsidence and sea level rise) tidal flooding can lead to loss of salt marshes. We developed and applied the Marsh Response to Hydrological Modifications model as a predictive tool to forecast the success of management scenarios for restoring full tides to previously restricted areas. We present an overview of a computer simulation tool that evaluates potential culvert installations with output of expected tidal ranges, water discharges, and flood potentials. For three New England tidal marshes we show species distributions of plants for tidally restricted and nonrestricted areas. Elevation ranges of species are used for short-term (<5 years) predictions of changes to salt marsh habitat after tidal restoration. In addition, elevation changes of the marsh substrate measured at these sites are extrapolated to predict long-term (>5 years) changes in marsh geomorphology under restored tidal regimes. The resultant tidal regime should be designed to provide habitat requirements for salt marsh plants. At sites with substantial elevation losses a balance must be struck that stimulates elevation increases by improving sediment fluxes into marshes while establishing flooding regimes appropriate to sustain the desired plants. Sea-level rise and its possible implications for shoreline management are explored in a case study of the south coast of England. Scientific understanding of the significance of likely physical changes for local environments is discussed. Appropriate management reactions are identified from an analysis of available policy options. Results illustrate how scientific information may be translated by geographers from global to local scales and made accessible for policy-makers, environmental, managers and public discussion. Local factors are more important than commonly perceived, not only in terms of understanding impacts upon physical systems but also in formulating mitigating policies that are politically and socially acceptable. In a recent report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicted an average rise in global sea levels due to global warming of 180 mm by the year 2030, and 440 mm by 2070. These increases could potentially compound a problem which is already appearing on the UK flood-defence agenda with increasing frequency, i.e. whether the country should continue to defend areas of agricultural land which currently have little or no national economic value.This paper explores the opportunities for nature conservation which might arise if 'retreat' from the existing line of defence is accepted as an option. The current situation in the UK and the United States is reviewed, and some possible responses are discussed.2 We present a set of indicators of vulnerability and capacity to adapt to climate variability, and by extension climate change, derived using a novel empirical analysis of data aggregated at the national level on a decadal timescale. The analysis is based on a conceptual framework in which risk is viewed in terms of outcome, and is a function of physically defined climate hazards and socially constructed vulnerability. Climate outcomes are represented by mortality from climate-related disasters, using the emergency events database data set, statistical relationships between mortality and a shortlist of potential proxies for vulnerability are used to identify key vulnerability indicators. We find that 11 key indicators exhibit a strong relationship with decadally aggregated mortality associated with climate-related disasters. Validation of indicators, relationships between vulnerability and adaptive capacity, and the sensitivity of subsequent vulnerability assessments to different sets of weightings are explored using expert judgement data, collected through a focus group exercise. The data are used to provide a robust assessment of vulnerability to climate-related mortality at the national level, and represent an entry point to more detailed explorations of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. They indicate that the most vulnerable nations are those situated in sub-Saharan Africa and those that have recently experienced conflict. Adaptive capacity-one element of vulnerability-is associated predominantly with governance, civil and political rights, and literacy.+ Accretion on a natural backbarrier salt marsh was determined and modeled as a function of high tide level, initial salt marsh level and distance from the salt marsh edge. Accretion measurements were based on up to 67-year-old marker horizons, supplemented by Pb-210/Cs-137 datings. The salt marsh is situated on the backbarrier of the Skallingen peninsula in the northern part of the Danish Wadden Sea. The tidal range (mean 1.5 in) is strongly affected by wind tide which occasionally adds up to about 3 in to the astronomical high tide level. Accretion is restricted to a narrow vertical band from about 0.1 in below to about 0.7 in above the mean high water level. In the outer part of the backbarrier (close to the tidal flat) mean accretion is about 4 mm yr(-1) and in the inner part it is about 2 mm yr-1. The decrease takes place in a similar manner as the decrease across a flood plain. The major part of salt marsh accretion is associated with high water levels corresponding to weather conditions characterized by gales. The long term variation of salt marsh accretion correlates with variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation winter index. The number of over-marsh high tides decreases exponentially with high tide level. The function constants controlling this distribution vary in direct ratio to the mean sea level. Plausible near future scenarios of tidal development were obtained by extrapolating this relation. Three sea level scenarios were tested: (i) sea level rise continues at a constant (long term) rate of 2.3 mm yr(-1), (ii) sea level rise continues at a constant (short term) rate of 4.2 mm yr(-1) and (iii) sea level rise accelerates to a constant rate of 6.4 mm yr(-1). In the first case accretion on the salt marsh will keep pace with the high water level rise. In the second case deposition in the inner part of the salt marsh will lag behind while that of the outer part of the salt marsh will keep pace with the rising high water level. In the third case, corresponding to a 'worst case' scenario for the 21th century, the salt marsh will gradually drown. In comparison with many other coastal countries, it appears that Norway-as a whole-will not be seriously affected by accelerated sea-level rise. Topographical and geomorphological features, including a generally steep coastline and resistant coasts, suggest a low physical susceptibility to accelerated sea-level rise. For example, the southeastern coastal zone is experiencing isostatic uplift and is less exposed to extreme storm events than the western coasts. Nevertheless, some specific areas of Norway are highly dependent upon economic activities related to the coastal zone, which implies that the socioeconomic impacts of accelerated sea-level rise in these areas may be significant. Of particular concern are the low-lying areas in the southwest, which are characterised by soft, erosive coasts. Along the western and northern coastlines, the extensive and well-developed infrastructure of roads, bridges, and ferries linking cities, towns, and villages is likely to be negatively affected by sea-level rise, particularly if this is concurrent with an increased risk and height of storm surges. The potential economic costs of rebuilding a< nd relocating infrastructure and other capital assets in these regions may be considerable.k This paper discusses the risks that the city of Mombasa faces from the direct and indirect impacts of climate change. Mombasa is Kenya's second largest city and has more than 700,000 inhabitants. It is the largest seaport in East Africa, serving not only Kenya but also many landlocked countries and the north of Tanzania. The city has a history of disasters related to climate extremes including floods, which cause serious damage nearly every year and, often, loss of life. The floods in October 2006 were particularly serious, affecting some 60,000 people in the city and the wider province. In addition, around 17 per cent of Mombasa's area could be submerged by a sea-level rise of 0.3 metres, with a larger area rendered uninhabitable or unusable for agriculture because of water logging and salt stress. Tourism is an important part of the city's economy. Thus, sandy beaches, historic and cultural monuments and several hotels, industries and port facilities would be negatively affected. This paper also discusses the measures needed to reduce the vulnerability of Mombasa's population and economic base to climate change.= Sea level rise may alter salinity and inundation regimes and create patches of open water in oligohaline coastal marshes, potentially affecting the composition and germination of seed bank species. We conducted seedling emergence experiments to: (1) examine the effects of standing vegetation on the seed banks of three oligohaline marsh communities in coastal Louisiana (dominated by Paspalum vaginatum Sw., Sagittaria lancifolia L., or Spartina patens (Ait.) Muhl., respectively); and (2) investigate the effects of salinity and inundation regime on germination of seed bank species. We also studied the effect of a temporary increase in salinity (to simulate a salt water intrusion event) on the viability of buried seeds. We found that the presence or absence of vegetation within a community affected the abundance of some species in the seed bank but had little effect on species composition. Also, the seed banks of the three communities exhibited considerable overlap in species composition and had similar species richness (10-11) and diversity (antilog Shannon-Weaver diversity index = 6.5-7.1), despite differences in vegetation type. Higher salinities and flooding reduced seedling emergence for most species; few species emerged at salinities above four parts per thousand (ppt), and only Sagittaria lancifolia and Eleocharis parvula germinated well under flooded conditions. A temporary increase in salinity did not affect species richness or seedling emergence of most species. Our results suggest that differences in vegetation may have little effect on the composition of seed banks of oligohaline marshes. However, higher salinities and greater depth and duration of inundation (anticipated as global sea level continues to rise) may decrease recruitment of seed bank species, reducing their abundance in oligohaline marsh communities.; This paper investigates the problem of scientific uncertainty and the way it impedes planning for climate change and accelerated sea-level rise (CC & ASLR) in Pacific Island Countries (PICs). The paper begins by discussing the problems CC & ASLR poses for PICs, and it explores the limitations of the dominant approach to vulnerability and adaptation. Next, the paper considers the way scientific uncertainty problematizes policies aimed at adaptation to CC & ASLR. It argues that the prevailing approach, which requires anticipation of impacts, is unsuccessful, and the paper proposes a complementary strategy aimed to enhance the resilience of whole island social-ecological systems. Recent developments in the theory and practice of resilience are discussed and then applied to formulate goals for adaptation policy in PICs. The Croatian coastline is long compared with the total national surface area. The coastal zone is mainly karstic and steep, with only one large alluvial plain, and contains approximately one-quarter of the total Croatian population. It is an important area for the national economy, particularly tourism and Mediterranean-type agriculture. Sea-level measurements at four points on the east Adriatic coast over the last 40 years indicate differential sea-level trends: from a rise between +0.53 and +0.96 mm/y to a decrease between -0.50 and -0.82 mm/y, a range mainly due to local tectonic activity. In this paper, the effects of assumed 20- and 86-cm sea-level rises on the coastal area are assessed by expert judgement. Coastal areas appear to have, in general, a low vulnerability to changes in sea level. However, some important sites, such as historical town centres, the alluvial plain of the Neretva River, and Vrana Lake on the island of Cres would be seriously endangered. Because of its great length, the entire Croatian coastline cannot be fully protected. Therefore, long-term national adaptation strategies to sea-level rise and plans of actions should be prepared and adopted, and monitoring of the consequences of sea-level rise and further research should be implemented. Climate change-induced sea-level rise, sea-surface warming, and increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events puts the long-term ability of humans to inhabit atolls at risk. We argue that this risk constitutes a dangerous level of climatic change to atoll countries by potentially undermining their national sovereignty. We outline the novel challenges this presents to both climate change research and policy. For research, the challenge is to identify the critical thresholds of change beyond which atoll social-ecological systems may collapse. We explain how thresholds may be behaviorally driven as well as ecologically driven through the role of expectations in resource management. The challenge for the international policy process, centred on the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), is to recognize the particular vulnerability of atoll countries by operationalising international norms of justice, sovereignty, and human and national security in the regime.h Since the early 1990s a number of projects have developed indexes to measure vulnerability to environmental change. This article investigates the key conceptual and methodological problems associated with such indexes. It examines in detail an index that explicitly addresses environmental change as an issue of vulnerability, the Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) developed by the South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission (SOPAC). This examination offers some broader lessons for indicator-based projects, all of which require a simple model of complex and uncertain social-ecological systems, and entail difficult choices about the selection, standardization, weighting, and aggregation of indicators selected to represent important aspects of those systems. We conclude that indexes of vulnerability to environmental change cannot hope to be meaningful when applied to large-scale systems, and so should focus on smaller scales of analysis. We argue that they should not be used as the basis for disbursing funds, comparing countries, or for measuring the performance of countries in environmental management. We also argue that vulnerability is a context-specific rather than a generic condition. Finally, we suggest that because vulnerability is about values at risk, there should be more input from a broader array of people when indexes are being developed and tested. Widespread thermal anomalies in 1997-1998, due primarily to regional effects of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and possibly augmented by global warming, caused severe coral bleaching worldwide. Corals in all habitats along the Belizean barrier reef bleached as a result of elevated sea temperatures in the summer and fall of 1998, and in fore-reef habitats of the outer barrier reef and offshore platforms they showed signs of recovery in 1999. In contrast, coral populations on reefs in the central shelf lagoon died off catastrophically. Based on an analysis of reef cores, this was the first bleaching-induced mass coral mortali< ty in the central lagoon in at least the last 3,000 years. Satellite data for the Channel Cay reef complex, the most intensively studied of the lagoonal reefs, revealed a prolonged period of elevated sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the late summer and early fall of 1998. From 18 September to I October 1998, anomalies around this reef averaged +2.2degreesC, peaking at 4.0degreesC above the local HotSpot threshold. In situ temperature records from a nearby site corroborated the observation that the late summer and early fall of 1998 were extraordinarily warm compared to other years. The lettuce coral, Agaricia tenuifolia, which was the dominant occupant of space on reef slopes in the central lagoon, was nearly eradicated at Channel Cay between October 1998 and January 1999. Although the loss of Ag. tenuifolia opened extensive areas of carbonate substrate for colonization, coral cover remained extremely low and coral recruitment was depressed through March 2001. High densities of the sea urchin Echinometra viridis kept the cover of fleshy and filamentous macroalgae to low levels, but the cover of an encrusting sponge, Chondrilla cf. nucula, increased. Further increases in sponge cover will impede the recovery of Ag. tenuifolia and other coral species by decreasing the availability of substrate for recruitment and growth. If coral populations are depressed on a long-term basis, the vertical accretion of skeletal carbonates at Channel Cay will slow or cease over the coming decades, a time during which global-warming scenarios predict accelerated sea-level rise. The Regional Workshop on Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment in Asia and the Pacific met to present and discuss assessments of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in agriculture, forests, coastal resources, and water resources. Discussions were held in breakout and plenary sessions about the state of the science for vulnerability and adaptation assessment conclusions that can be drawn about the vulnerability of the region to climate change, and where future research efforts should be directed. The workshop concluded that sea level rise is of greatest concern to island and coastal nations in the region, climate change will have a significant effect on agriculture, water resources are sensitive to changes in average climate conditions and to tropical monsoons and cyclones, and forests could be significantly affected by climate change. The workshop recommended that efforts to improve general circulation models continue and that countries in the region cooperate on the analyses of vulnerability and addressing adaptation measures. The workshop also concluded that results of vulnerability and adaptation assessments should be presented to policy makers and the public and that assessments continue to be undertaken to improve our understanding of the issue.$ This paper presents preliminary efforts by agencies managing California's water resources to incorporate climate change research into their planning and management tools. Projected increases in air temperature may lead to changes in the precipitation patterns, runoff timing and volume, sea level rise, and changes in the amount of irrigation water needed due to modified evapotranspiration rates. Historical observations of climate change related to California's water resources are shown. Results from preliminary modeling studies of potential impacts of climate change to operations of the State Water Project and Central Valley Project, Delta water quality and water levels, flood forecasting and evapotranspiration rates are presented. Future directions to incorporate risk assessment are discussed. For the 1955-2003 period, the thermal expansion of the 0-700 m layer of the World Ocean contributed approximately 0.33 mm/year to global sea level rise. About half of this thermosteric trend is due to warming of the Atlantic Ocean. Approximately one third of the total thermosteric rise is due to the warming of the Pacific Ocean. For the period of available TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) satellite altimetry data (1993-2003), the linear trend of thermosteric sea level (0-700 m) is 1.23 mm/year, 60% of which is due to the trends in the Pacific Ocean. For the 0-3000 m layer of the entire World Ocean, the linear trend of thermosteric sea level is 0.40 mm/year for 1955-1959 through 1994-1998. For the 50 degrees S-65 degrees N region that we previously reported (Antonov et al., 2002) which was characterized by a 0.50 mm/year trend for 1955-1959 through 1992-1996, our new estimate is 0.47 mm/year for this same period. This review assesses the degree of resilience of mangrove forests to large, infrequent disturbance (tsunamis) and their role in coastal protection, and to chronic disturbance events (climate change) and the future of mangroves in the face of global change. From a geological perspective, mangroves come and go at considerable speed with the current distribution of forests a legacy of the Holocene, having undergone almost chronic disturbance as it result of fluctuations in sea-level. Mangroves have demonstrated considerable resilience over timescales commensurate with shoreline evolution. This notion is supported by evidence that soil accretion rates in mangrove forests are currently keeping pace with mean sea-level rise. Further support for their resilience comes from patterns of recovery from natural disturbances (storms, hurricanes) which coupled with key life history traits, suggest pioneer-phase characteristics. Stand composition and forest structure are the result of a complex interplay of physiological tolerances and competitive interactions leading to a mosaic of interrupted or arrested succession sequences, in response to physical/chemical gradients and landform changes. The extent to which some or all of these factors come into play depends on the frequency, intensity, size, and duration of the disturbance. Mangroves may in certain circumstances offer limited protection from tsunamis; some models using realistic forest variables suggest significant reduction in tsunami wave flow pressure for forests at least 100 m in width. The magnitude of energy absorption strongly depends on tree density, stem and root diameter, shore slope, bathymetry, spectral characteristics of incident waves, and tidal stage upon entering the forest. The ultimate disturbance, climate change, may lead to a maximum global loss of 10-15% of mangrove forest, but must be considered of secondary importance compared with current average annual rates of 1-2% deforestation. A large reservoir of below-ground nutrients, rapid rates of nutrient flux and microbial decomposition, complex and highly efficient biotic controls, self-design and redundancy of keystone species, and numerous feedbacks, all contribute to mangrove resilience to various types of disturbance. Mangroves, the only woody halophytes living at the confluence of land and sea, have been heavily used traditionally for food, timber, fuel and medicine, and presently occupy about 181 000 km(2) of tropical and subtropical coastline. Over the past 50 years, approximately one-third of the world's mangrove forests have been lost, but most data show very variable loss rates and there is considerable margin of error in most estimates. Mangroves are a valuable ecological and economic resource, being important nursery grounds and breeding sites for birds, fish, crustaceans, shellfish, reptiles and mammals; a renewable source of wood; accumulation sites for sediment, contaminants, carbon and nutrients; and offer protection against coastal erosion. The destruction of mangroves is usually positively related to human population density. Major reasons for destruction are urban development, aquaculture, mining and overexploitation for timber, fish, crustaceans and shellfish. Over the next 25 years, unrestricted clear felling, aquaculture, and overexploitation of fisheries will be the greatest threats, with lesser problems being alteration of hydrology, pollution and global warming. Loss of biodiversity is, and will continue to be, a severe problem as even pristine mangroves are species-poor compared with other tropical ecosystem< s. The future is not entirely bleak. The number of rehabilitation and restoration projects is increasing worldwide with some countries showing increases in mangrove area. The intensity of coastal aquaculture appears to have levelled off in some parts of the world. Some commercial projects and. economic models indicate that mangroves can be used as a sustainable resource, especially for wood. The brightest note is that the rate of population growth is projected to slow during the next 50 years, with a gradual decline thereafter to the end of the century. Mangrove forests will continue to be exploited at current rates to 2025, unless they are seen as a valuable resource to be managed on a sustainable basis. After 2025, the future of mangroves will depend on technological and ecological advances in multi-species silviculture, genetics, and forestry modelling, but the greatest hope for their future is for a reduction in human population growth.% Bangladesh is likely to be one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change. This paper discusses the possible impacts of climate change in Bangladesh through tropical cyclones, storm surges, coastal erosion and back water effect. The possible increase in cyclone frequency in the Bay of Bengal, lying south of Bangladesh, due to climate change is looked at by analyzing the cyclone data for 119 yr. Both qualitative and quantitative discussions are made on cyclone intensity increase for a sea surface temperature rise of 2 and 4 degreesC. Different scenarios of storm surges under different climate change conditions are developed by using a numerical model of storm surges for the Bay of Bengal. Possible loss of land through beach erosion due to sea level rise on the eastern coast of Bangladesh is examined. Some discussions are also made on the impacts of back water effect due to sea level rise on flood situations in the country. Finally, a few remarks are made on the adaptation options for Bangladesh in the event of climate change.D Using a sea-level rise term composed of steady and periodic parts, a zero-dimensional, numerical model for the vertical growth of high tidal mudflats and marshes has been operated under varying conditions of sediment supply. The model simulates the creation of dynamically stable marshes beneath which form stratigraphic sections in which organic beds (silty peat and/or peat marshes) are intercalated with silts (mudflats or minerogenic marshes). Such successions are widely observed from Flandrian deposits in the coastal zone of northwest Europe. Partly because of a strong but variable lag effect, the experimental transgressive and regressive overlaps afford a registration of sea-level movements of limited reliability, in terms of chronology, amplitude of fluctuation and indicative meaning. In the model, implemented for conditions in the Severn Estuary (SW Britain), a regressive overlap arises closer to the maximum of the periodic component of sea level than does the corresponding transgressive overlap to follow. Overlaps arise at variable levels within the tidal frame, but generally well above the position of mean high-water spring tides. The results support the 'oscillatory' concept of sea-level movement but provide evidence and explanations for large intrinsic uncertainties in sea-level curves based on radiocarbon-dated peats. A salt marsh composed of a vegetated platform dissected by creek networks has at any time characters determined by the previous history of the system, because forcing factors constantly change in rate. Results from numerical simulation models of marsh growth are combined with engineering regime theory (channel stability) to form a comprehensive conceptual model which qualitatively describes the three-dimensional character of marshes and the stratigraphic sequences they generate. The morphostratigraphic evolution of marshes is examined for two main patterns of regional relative mean sea-level change. Where the level fluctuates smoothly about an underlying upward trend, there develops a stacked sequence of silt-peat couplets, each of which is symmetrical in facies states but asymmetrical in facies thicknesses. Palaeochannel forms and fills distributed through each coupler show that creek networks expand and densify as sea level rises and the hydraulic duty of the marsh platform increases to its maximum, but shrink and silt-up as sea level temporarily stabilises or falls and the duty declines. Great earthquakes, and also the abandonment of manmade flood defences on aseismic marshes, create catastrophic-episodic increases in relative sea level. Where there is also an underlying upward trend of sea level, stacked silt-pear couplets result that are strongly asymmetrical in both facies states and thicknesses. The creek networks enlarge rapidly under strong forcing within a short time of the sea-level increase but later, as the hydraulic duty declines, shrink and infill. Under each scenario, the tidal creek networks that functioned during the accumulation of one coupler are unlikely to be inherited by the next, except in the case of channels that also transmit fresh water from the hinterland.
Over the centuries, land reclamation, coastal development, overfishing and pollution have nearly eliminated European wetlands, seagrass meadows, shellfish beds, biogenic reefs and other productive and diverse coastal habitats. It is estimated that every day between 1960 and 1995, a kilometre of European coastline was developed. Most countries have estimated losses of coastal wetlands and seagrasses exceeding 50% of the original area with peaks above 80% for many regions. Conspicuous declines, sometimes to virtual local disappearance of kelps and other complex macroalgae, have been observed in several countries. A few dominant threats have led to these losses over time. The greatest impacts to wetlands have consistently been land claim and coastal development. The greatest impacts to seagrasses and macroalgae are presently associated with degraded water quality while in the past there have been more effects from destructive fishing and diseases. Coastal development remains an important threat to seagrasses. For biogenic habitats, such as oyster reefs and maerls, some of the greatest impacts have been from destructive fishing and overexploitation with additional impacts of disease, particularly to native oysters. Coastal development and defence have had the greatest known impacts on soft-sediment habitats with a high likelihood that trawling has affected vast areas. The concept of 'shifting baselines', which has been applied mostly to the inadequate historical perspective of fishery losses, is extremely relevant for habitat loss more generally. Most habitat loss estimates refer to a relatively short time span primarily within the last century. However, in some regions, most estuarine and near-shore coastal habitats were already severely degraded or driven to virtual extinction well before 1900. Native oyster reefs were ecologically extinct by the 1950s along most European coastlines and in many bays well before that. These shellfish reefs are among the most endangered coastal habitats, but they receive some of the least protection. Nowadays less than 15% of the European coastline is considered in 'good' condition. Those fragments of native habitats that remain are under continued threat, and their management is not generally informed by adequate knowledge of their distribution and status. There are many policies and directives aimed at reducing and reversing these losses but their overall positive benefits have been low. Further neglecting this long history of habitat loss and transformation may ultimately compromise the successful management and future sustainability of those few fragments of native and semi-native coastal habitats that remain in Europe. This article defines social resilience as the ability of groups or communities to cope with external stresses and disturbances as a result of social, political and environmental change. This definition highlights social resilience in relation to the concept of ecological resilience which is a characteristic of ecosystems to mai< ntain themselves in the face of disturbance. There is a clear link between social and ecological resilience, particularly for social groups or communities that are dependent on ecological and environmental resources for their livelihoods. But it is not clear whether resilient ecosystems enable resilient communities in such situations. This article examines whether resilience is a useful characteristic for describing the social and economic situation of social groups and explores potential links between social resilience and ecological resilience. The origins of this interdisciplinary study in human ecology, ecological economics and rural sociology are reviewed, and a study of the impacts of ecological change on a resource-dependent community in contemporary coastal Vietnam in terms of the resilience of its institutions is outlined. Future changes in climate pose significant challenges for society, not the least of which is how best to adapt to observed and potential future impacts of these changes to which the world is already committed. Adaptation is a dynamic social process: the ability of societies to adapt is determined, in part, by the ability to act collectively. This article reviews emerging perspectives on collective action and social capital and argues that insights from these areas inform the nature of adaptive capacity and normative prescriptions of policies of adaptation. Specifically, social capital is increasingly understood within economics to have public and private elements, both of which are based on trust, reputation, and reciprocal action. The public-good aspects of particular forms of social capital are pertinent elements of adaptive capacity in interacting with natural capital and in relation to the performance of institutions that cope with the risks of changes in climate. Case studies are presented of present-day collective action for coping with extremes in weather in coastal areas in Southeast Asia and of community-based coastal management in the Caribbean. These cases demonstrate the importance of social capital framing both the public and private institutions of resource management that build resilience in the face of the risks of changes in climate. These cases illustrate, by analogy, the nature of adaptation processes and collective action in adapting to future changes in climate. This paper reviews research traditions of vulnerability to environmental change and the challenges for present vulnerability research in integrating with the domains of resilience and adaptation. Vulnerability is the state of susceptibility to harm from exposure to stresses associated with environmental and social change and from the absence of capacity to adapt. Antecedent traditions include theories of vulnerability as entitlement failure and theories of hazard. Each of these areas has contributed to present formulations of vulnerability to environmental change as a characteristic of social-ecological systems linked to resilience. Research on vulnerability to the impacts of climate change spans all the antecedent and successor traditions. The challenges for vulnerability research are to develop robust and credible measures, to incorporate diverse methods that include perceptions of risk and vulnerability, and to incorporate governance research on the mechanisms that mediate vulnerability and promote adaptive action and resilience. These challenges are common to the domains of vulnerability, adaptation and resilience and form common ground for consilience and integration. This paper argues that successful conservation of wetlands is fundamentally determined by the institutions and property rights associated with resource management decisions. Thus an understanding of property rights regimes, the constraints which they impose on users of wetlands resources, and the distribution of benefits of use among users and non-users are essential if the economic values of wetland ecosystems and functions are to be realised. We outline relevant theoretical perspectives on property rights and the sustainable utilisation of natural resources. We argue that wetland resources tend to have unique property rights regimes due to their ecological characteristics, namely, their multiple-resource characteristics, the indivisible nature of these resources, and the seasonal and cyclical nature of different wetland resource components. Case studies of property rights regimes in Indonesia and Vietnam are presented. These show that wetland resources are often managed as common pool resources, and that state appropriation of resources or the imposition of private property rights can contribute to unsustainable utilisation or conversion of wetlands to other uses. Environmental decisions made by individuals, civil society, and the state involve questions of economic efficiency, environmental effectiveness, equity, and political legitimacy. These four criteria are constitutive of the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of sustainable development, which has become the dominant rhetorical device of environmental governance. We discuss the tendency for disciplinary research to focus on particular subsets of the four criteria, and argue that such a practice promotes solutions that do not acknowledge the dynamics of scale and the heterogeneity of institutional contexts. We advocate an interdisciplinary framework for the analysis of environmental decisionmaking that seeks to identify legitimate and context-sensitive institutional solutions producing equitable, efficient, and effective outcomes. We demonstrate the usefulness of our approach by using it to examine decisions concerning contested nature conservation and multiple-use commons in the management of Hickling Broad in Norfolk in the United Kingdom. We conclude that interdisciplinary approaches enable the generalisation and transfer of lessons in a way that respects the specifics and context of the issue at hand. Climate change impacts and responses are presently observed in physical and ecological systems. Adaptation to these impacts is increasingly being observed in both physical and ecological systems as well as in human adjustments to resource availability and risk at different spatial and societal scales. We review the nature of adaptation and the implications of different spatial scales for these processes. We outline a set of normative evaluative criteria for judging the success of adaptations at different scales. We argue that elements of effectiveness, efficiency, equity and legitimacy are important in judging success in terms of the sustainability of development pathways into an uncertain future. We further argue that each of these elements of decision-making is implicit within presently formulated scenarios of socio-economic futures of both emission trajectories and adaptation, though with different weighting. The process by which adaptations are to be judged at different scales will involve new and challenging institutional processes. Social and ecological vulnerability to disasters and outcomes of any particular extreme event are influenced by buildup or erosion of resilience both before and after disasters occur. Resilient social-ecological. systems incorporate diverse mechanisms for living with, and learning from, change and unexpected shocks. Disaster management requires multilevel governance systems that can enhance the capacity to cope with uncertainty and surprise by mobilizing diverse sources of resilience.
Saltmarshes are a major, widely distributed, intertidal habitat. They are dynamic systems, responding to changing environmental conditions. For centuries, saltmarshes have been subject to modification or destruction because of human activity. In this review, the range of factors influencing the survival of saltmarshes is discussed. Of critical importance are changes in relative sea level and in tidal range. Relative sea level is affected by changes in absolute sea level, changes in land level and the capacity of saltmarshes to accumulate and retain sedimen, any saltmarshes are starved of sediment because of catchment modification and coastal engineering, or exposed to erosive forces, which may < be of natural origin or reflect human interference. The geographical distribution of individual saltmarsh species reflects climate, so that global climatic change will be reflected by changes in distribution and abundance of species, although the rate of change in communities dominated by perennial plants is difficult to predict. Humans have the ability to create impacts on saltmarshes at a range of scales from individual sites to globally. Pressures on the environment created by the continued increase in the human population, particularly in developing tropical countries, and the likely consequences of the enhanced greenhouse effect on both temperature and sea level give rise to particular concerns. Given the concentration of population growth and development in the coastal zone, and the potential sensitivity of saltmarsh to change in sea level, it is timely to review the present state of saltmarshes and to assess the likelihood of changes in the near (25 years) future. By 2025, global sea level rise and warming will have impacts on saltmarshes. However, the most extensive changes are likely to be the direct result of human actions at local or regional scales. Despite increasing recognition of the ecological value of saltmarsh, major projects involving loss of saltmarshes but deemed to be in the public interest will be approved. Pressures are likely to be particularly severe in the tropics, where very little is known about saltmarshes. At the local scale the cumulative impacts of activities, which individually have minor effects, may be considerable. Managers of saltmarshes will be faced with difficult choices including questions as to whether traditional uses should be retained, whether invasive alien species or native species increasing in abundance should be controlled, whether planned retreat is an appropriate response to rising relative sea level or whether measures can be taken to reduce erosion. Decisions will need to take into account social and economic as well as ecological concerns.6 Adaptation to the impacts of sea level rise in Egypt. Climate Research 12: 117-128.& Ellison, A. M., and E. J. Farnsworth. r Anthropogenic disturbance of Caribbean mangrove ecosystems: Past impacts, present trends, and future predictions. Biotropica 28: 549-565. Ellison, J. C.
37: 75-87.$ Ellison, J. C., and D. R. Stoddart. 7: 151-165. El-Raey, M. k Vulnerability assessment of the coastal zone of the Nile delta of Egypt, to the impacts of sea level rise. Ocean & Coastal Management
37: 29-40.# Elraey, M., Y. Fouda, and S. Nasr. W GIS assessment of the vulnerability of the Rosetta area, Egypt to impacts of sea rise.
47: 59-77.Y Eriksson, P. G., R. Mazumder, S. Sarkar, P. K. Bose, W. Altermann, and R. Van Der Merwe. The 2.7-2.0 Ga volcano-sedimentary record of Africa, India and Australia: evidence for global and local changes in sea level and continental freeboard. Precambrian Research 97: 269-302. Etkins, R., and E. S. Epstein.
215: 287-289.+ Ewel, K. C., R. R. Twilley, and J. E. Ong. J Different kinds of mangrove forests provide different goods and services. Global Ecology and Biogeography 7: 83-94. Fankhauser, S. 27: 299-319./ Fankhauser, S., J. B. Smith, and R. S. J. Tol. L Weathering climate change: some simple rules to guide adaptation decisions.
30: 67-78. Farber, S. < Welfare loss of wetlands disintegration: A Louisiana study. Contemporary Economic Policy 14: 92-106.
Farbotko, C. e Tuvalu and climate change: Constructions of environmental displacement in the Sydney Morning Herald. - Geografiska Annaler Series B-Human Geography
87B: 279-293./ Feagin, R. A., D. J. Sherman, and W. E. Grant. Q Experimental: scientific inquiry through the manipulation of variablesG Governance: relating to human behavior through policy and lawf Observations: general trends and changes within the environment through empirical research @ Review: covers the general status or state of a systemb Socio-ecological: discusses the interconnectedness between society and the natural world^ Socio-economic: discusses the potential economic and social impact of sea-level riseL Adaptation: changes that could reduce the impact of sea-level rise^ Decision-making: methods to make policy and manage systems for an uncertain future : Economic: the monetary impact of sea-level riseE Resilience: ability to resist change or adapt progressively( Africa: continental countries% Asia: continental countries( Europe: continental countries> Looking for a keyword? Press "Ctrl-F" to bring up search icon/ Sea-Level Rise Literature Database, Version 1.0 Last updated: August, 2008 Created by Kirsten Feifel To retain restoration and conservation efforts into the future, decision makers need to be able to easily access the best available science regarding sea-level rise to help guide their adaptation strategies. Recognizing the universal need for up-to-date scientific information, the Sea-Level Rise Literature Database was created to help guide practitioners to relevant scientific papers. The database provides a cataloged, up-to-date, citation library of pertinent scientific papers regarding sea-level rise. References within the database are classified based upon their geographic location, main subject, analysis type, and application. Users can then search within the database using pull-down lists to find information specific to their interests. This classification system was developed in the hopes that it would be concise and comprehensive, yet specific enough to easily guide users to appropriate citations. ? Location: Based upon geographic specificity within the paper: Subject: The main subject/habitat type within the paper5 Analysis: The overarching theme/basis of the paper/ Focus: The specific application of the paperJ Society: the public, government, sociatal norms, law and policyP Model: computer programs which provide information through simulations2 Historical: trends or data prior to 1900- Recent: trends or data 1900 to dateP Tidal Wetlands: marshes that experience frequent salt water intrusion_ Restoration: techniques or considerations needed to maintain the existing environmentL Scenarios: modeled futures based upon current and predicted trendsN Vulnerability: susceptibility to negative impacts of sea-level rise A framework for analyzing social vulnerability is outlined, an aspect largely underemphasized in assessments of the impacts of climate change and climate extremes. Vulnerability is defined in this paper as the exposure of individuals or collective groups to livelihood stress as a result of the impacts of such environmental change. It is constituted by individual and collective aspects which can be disaggregated, but are linked through the political economy of markets and institutions. Research in coastal northern Vietnam shows that baseline social vulnerability is enhanced by some institutional and economic factors associated with Vietnam's economic transition from central planning, namely the breakdown of collective action on protection from extreme events and an increasingly skewed income. Offsetting these trends are other institutional changes associated with the dynamic nature of the economic restructuring and evolution of the market transition in Vietnam, which decrease vulnerability.t Hydrodynamic modelling of estuarine flood defence realignment as an adaptive management response to sea-level rise. 24: 1-12. Fussel, H. M. X Vulnerability: A generally applicable conceptual framework for climate change research. 17: 155-167. Galbraith, H. and others a Global climate change and sea level rise: Potential losses of intertidal habitat for shorebirds. Waterbirds 25: 173-183.+ Gambolati, G., P. Teatini, and M. Gonella. ] GIS simulations of the inundation risk in the coastal lowlands of the Northern Adriatic Sea. $ Mathematical and Compute< r Modelling 35: 963-972.' Garg, A., P. R. Shukla, and M. Kapshe. P From climate change impacts to adaptation: A development perspective for India. Natural Resources Forum 31: 132-141. Gehrels, R., and A. Long. U Sea level is not level: the case for a new approach to predicting UK sea-level rise.
Geography
93: 11-16. Gehrels, W. R. and others a Rapid sea-level rise in the North Atlantic Ocean since the first half of the nineteenth century. Holocene 16: 949-965.< Gehrels, W. R., D. F. Belknap, S. Black, and R. M. Newnham. ? Rapid sea-level rise in the Gulf of Maine, USA, since AD 1800. 12: 383-389.' Gibbons, S. J. A., and R. J. Nicholls. Z Island abandonment and sea-level rise: An historical analog from the Chesapeake Bay, USA.
16: 40-47. Gilman, E. L. and others T Adapting to Pacific Island mangrove responses to sea level rise and climate change. 32: 161-176. Gornitz, V. Monitoring sea level changes. 31: 515-544.& Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 20: 7-20. Gough, L., and J. B. Grace. d Effects of flooding, salinity and herbivory on coastal plant communities, Louisiana, United States.
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Grigg, R. W. \ Holocene coral reef accretion in Hawaii: a function of wave exposure and sea level history. Coral Reefs 17: 263-272.V Grigg, R. W., E. E. Grossman, S. A. Earle, S. R. Gittings, D. Lott, and J. Mcdonough. Focus Subject! Click inside box for the Abstract N. America, Eastern N. America, Western Scenarios Journal Namec Click within any of the header boxes to begin search. Use arrows within each box to refine search. Burby, R. J., and A. C. Nelson. Category Explanations:R Coastal erosion, global sea-level rise, and the loss of sand dune plant habitats. ) Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 3: 359-364.* Ferreira, O., J. A. Dias, and R. Taborda. 9 Implications of sea-level rise for continental Portugal. 24: 317-324.' Few, R., K. Brown, and E. L. Tompkins. U Climate change and coastal management decisions: Insights from Christchurch Bay, UK. 35: 255-270.X Fish, M. R., I. M. Cote, J. A. Horrocks, B. Mulligan, A. R. Watkinson, and A. P. Jones. _ Construction setback regulations and sea-level rise: Mitigating sea turtle nesting beach loss. 51: 330-341.D Fitzgerald, D. M., M. S. Fenster, B. A. Argow, and I. V. Buynevich. ' Coastal impacts due to sea-level rise. . Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 36: 601-647. Fletcher, C. H. Earth-Science Reviews 33: 73-109. Freitas, M. C. and others Coastal land-loss associated with sea-level rise assessed by aerial Videotape-Assisted Vulnerability Analysis - the case of mainland Portugal.
3: 1310-1315. French, J. Tidal marsh sedimentation and resilience to environmental change: Exploratory modelling of tidal, sea-level and sediment supply forcing in predominantly allochthonous systems.
235: 119-136. French, J. R. Marine Biologyl Digital terrain modelling to investigate the effects of sea level rise on mangrove propagule establishment.
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Coral reef6 Potential implications of sea-level rise for Croatia. Location Authors Year
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29: 39-61. Adger, W. N.G Social vulnerability to climate change and extremes in coastal Vietnam. World Development 27: 249-269.4 Social and ecological resilience: are they related? Progress in Human Geography 24: 347-364. Environment and Planning A E Social capital, collective action, and adaptation to climate change. Economic Geography 79: 387-404. Vulnerability. 7 Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions 16: 268-281. Adger, W. N. and others[ Governance for sustainability: towards a 'thick' analysis of environmental decisionmaking. 35: 1095-1110. Adger, W. N., and C. Luttrell.1 Property rights and the utilisation of wetlands. Ecological Economics
35: 75-89./ Adger, W. N., N. W. Arnell, and E. L. Tompkins.7 Adapting to climate change: perspectives across scales.8 Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions
15: 75-76.6 Successful adaptation to climate change across scales.
15: 77-86.I Adger, W. N., T. P. Hughes, C. Folke, S. R. Carpenter, and J. Rockstrom. 2 Social-ecological resilience to coastal disasters. Science 309: 1036-1039. Airoldi, L., and M. W. Beck.> Loss, status and trends for coastal marine habitats of Europe.! Oceanography and Marine Biology, 45 345-405. Ali, A.? Climate change impacts and adaptation assessment in Bangladesh. Climate Research 12: 109-116. Allen, J. R. L. Salt-marsh growth and fluctuating sea level: Implications of a simulation model for Flandrian coastal stratigraphy and peat-based sea-level curves. 100: 21-45. Simulation models of salt-marsh morphodynamics: some implications for high-intertidal sediment couplets related to sea-level change. Sedimentary Geology
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87: S91-S108.- Awuor, C. B., V. A. Orindi, and A. O. Adwera.? Climate change and coastal cities: the case of Mombasa, Kenya. Environment and Urbanization 20: 231-242.4 Baldwin, A. H., K. L. Mckee, and I. A. Mendelssohn. d The influence of vegetation, salinity, and inundation on seed banks of oligohaline coastal marshes. American Journal of Botany 83: 470-479.# Baric, A., B. Grbec, and D. Bogner. Journal of Coastal Research 24: 299-305.< Barnett, J. T Adapting to climate change in Pacific Island Countries: The problem of uncertainty. World Development 29: 977-993. Barnett, J., and W. Adger. % Climate dangers and atoll countries. Climatic Change 61: 321-337.% Barnett, J., S. Lambert, and I. Fry. P The hazards of indicators: Insights from the environmental vulnerability index. 2 Annals of the Association of American Geographers 98: 102-119.3 Bartholdy, J., C. Christiansen, and H. Kunzendorf. o Long term variations in backbarrier salt marsh deposition on the Skallingen peninsula - the Danish Wadden Sea. Marine Geology
203: 1-21.% Bernatchez, P., and J. M. M. Dubois. Seasonal quantification of coastal processes and cliff erosion on fine sediment shorelines in a cold temperate climate, north shore of the St. Lawrence maritime estuary, Quebec. 24: 169-180.% Bertness, M. D., and P. J. Ewanchuk. | Latitudinal and climate-driven variation in the strength and nature of biological interactions in New England salt marshes.
Oecologia
132: 392-401.= Bertocci, I., S. Vaselli, E. Maggi, and L. Benedetti-Cecchi. Changes in temporal variance of rocky shore organism abundances in response to manipulation of mean intensity and temporal variability of aerial exposure. Marine Ecology-Progress Series 338: 11-20. Beukema, J. J. t Expected changes in the benthic fauna of Wadden Sea tidal flats as a result of sea-level rise or bottom subsidence. Journal of Sea Research
47: 25-39. Bondesan, M. and others 11: 1354-1379., Boruff, B. J., C. Emrich, and S. L. Cutter. 5 Erosion hazard vulnerability of US coastal counties. 21: 932-942.) Bosello, F., R. Roson, and R. S. J. Tol. N Economy-wide estimates of the implications of climate change: Sea level rise. # Environmental & Resource Economics 37: 549-571.( Botzen, W. J. W., and J. Van Den Bergh. x Insurance against climate change and flooding in the Netherlands: Present, future, and comparison with other countries. Risk Analysis 28: 413-426.1 Boumans, R. M. J., D. M. Burdick, and M. Dionne. A Modeling habitat change in salt marshes after tidal restoration. Restoration Ecology 10: 543-555. Bray, M. J., and J. M. Hooke. C Prediction of soft-cliff retreat with accelerating sea-level rise. 13: 453-467.# Bray, M., J. Hooke, and D. Carter. Y Planning for sea-level rise on the south coast of England: Advising the decision-makers. 5 Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers
22: 13-30. Brooke, J. S. and others A Journal of the Institution of Water and Environmental Management 6: 151-157.* Brooks, N., W. N. Adger, and P. M. Kelly. s The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation. 15: 151-163. Brown, A. C., and A. Mclachlan. X Sandy shore ecosystems and the threats facing them: some predictions for the year 2025.
29: 62-77.F Brown, K., W. N. Adger, E. Tompkins, P. Bacon, D. Shim, and K. Young. 9 Trade-off analysis for marine protected area management. Ecological Economics 37: 417-434./ Journal of Urban Planning and Development-Asce
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34: 59-86.% Chao, B. F., Y. H. Wu, and Y. S. Li. F Impact of artificial reservoir water impoundment on global sea level. Science
320: 212-214. Chen, J. Y. Z The impact of sea level rise on China's coastal areas and its disaster hazard evaluation. 13: 925-930. Chen, X., and Y. Zong. X Coastal erosion along the Changjiang deltaic shoreline, China: History and prospective. 46: 733-742. Chivas, A. R. and others t Sea-level and environmental changes since the last interglacial in the Gulf of Carpentaria, Australia: an overview. Quaternary International 83-5: 19-46.# Christian, R. R., and S. Mazzilli. V Defining the coast and sentinel ecosystems for coastal observations of global change. Hydrobiologia 577: 55-70. Church, J. A., and N. J. White. 6 A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise. Geophysical Research Letters B Church, J. A., J. S. Godfrey, D. R. Jackett, and T. J. Mcdougall. Journal of Climate 4: 438-456.. Church, J. A., N. J. White, and J. R. Hunter. = Sea-level rise at tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean islands. 53: 155-168.I Church, J. A., N. J. White, R. Coleman, K. Lambeck, and J. X. Mitrovica. T Estimates of the regional distribution of sea level rise over the 1950-2000 period.
! " # $ % & ' ( ) * + , - . / 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 : ; < = > ? @ A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z [ \ ] ^ _ ` a b c d e f g h i j k l m o p q r s t u v w x y z { | } ~ 17: 2609-2625. 14: 512-524. Cowell, P. J. and others _ The coastal-tract (part 2): Applications of aggregated modeling of lower-order coastal change. 19: 828-848. Crooks, S., and R. K. Turner. F Integrated coastal management: Sustaining estuarine natural resources Advances in Ecological Research 29: 241-289 2 Crowell, M., B. C. Douglas, and S. P. Leatherman. D On forecasting future US shoreline positions: A test of algorithms. 13: 1245-1255.! Darwin, R. F., and R. S. J. Tol. 5 Estimates of the economic effects of sea level rise. 19: 113-129.N Davis, S. M., D. L. Childers, J. J. Lorenz, H. R. Wanless, and T. E. Hopkins. c A conceptual model of ecological interactions in the mangrove estuaries of the Florida Everglades. Wetlands 25: 832-842.< Dawson, R. J., J. W. Hall, P. D. Bates, and R. J. Nicholls. Quantified analysis of the probability of flooding in the Thames estuary under imaginable worst-case sea level rise scenarios. 5 International Journal of Water Resources Development 21: 577-591. Day, J. W. and others u Implications of global climatic change and energy cost and availability for the restoration of the Mississippi delta. Ecological Engineering 24: 253-265. Day, J. W., and P. H. Templet. Coastal Management 17: 241-257.9 Day, J. W., J. F. Martin, L. Cardoch, and P. H. Templet. P System functioning as a basis for sustainable management of deltaic ecosystems. 25: 115-153./ De La Vega-Leinert, A. C., and R. J. Nicholls. < Potential implications of sea-level rise for Great Britain. 24: 342-357.5 Demirkesen, A. C., F. Evrendilek, and S. Berberoglu. J Quantifying coastal inundation vulnerability of Turkey to sea-level rise. ( Environmental Monitoring and Assessment
138: 101-106.? Demirkesen, A. C., F. Evrendilek, S. Berberoglu, and S. Kilic. f Coastal flood risk analysis using landsat-7 ETM+ imagery and SRTM DEM: A case study of Izmir, turkey.
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M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & D l r ` ! r ` " r ` # r ` $ r ` % r ` & r ` ' r ` ( r ` ) r ` * r ` + r ` , r ` - r ` . r ` / r ` 0 r ` 1 r ` 2 r ` 3 r ` 4 r ` 5 r ` 6 r ` 7 r ` 8 r ` 9 r ` : r ` ; r ` < r ` = r ` > r ` ? r ` M M M M N & N N & ! M M M M N & N N & " M M M M N & N N & # M M M M N & N N & $ M M M M N & N N & % M M M M N & N N & & M M M M N & N N & ' M M M M N & N N & ( M M M M N & N N & ) M M M M N & N N & * M M M M N & N N & + M M M M N & N N & , M M M M N & N N & - M M M M N & N N & . M M M M N & N N & / M M M M N & N N & 0 M M M M N & N N & 1 M M M M N & N N & 2 M M M M N & N N & 3 M M M M N & N N & 4 M M M M N & N N & 5 M M M M N & N N & 6 M M M M N & N N & 7 M M M M N & N N & 8 M M M M N & N N & 9 M M M M N & N N & : M M M M N & N N & ; M M M M N & N N & < M M M M N & N N & = M M M M N & N N & > M M M M N & N N & ? M M M M N & N N & D l @ r ` A r ` B r ` C r ` D r ` E r ` F r ` G r ` H r ` I r ` J r ` K r ` L r ` M r ` N r ` O r ` P r ` Q r ` R r ` S r ` T r ` U r ` V r ` W r ` X r ` Y r ` Z r ` [ r ` \ r ` ] r ` ^ r ` _ r ` @ M M M M N & N N & A M M M M N & N N & B M M M M N & N N & C M M M M N & N N & D M M M M N & N N & E M M M M N & N N & F M M M M N & N N & G M M M M N & N N & H M M M M N & N N & I M M M M N & N N & J M M M M N & N N & K M M M M N & N N & L M M M M N & N N & M M M M M N & N N & N M M M M N & N N & O M M M M N & N N & P M M M M N & N N & Q M M M M N & N N & R M M M M N & N N & S M M M M N & N N & T M M M M N & N N & U M M M M N & N N & V M M M M N & N N & W M M M M N & N N & X M M M M N & N N & Y M M M M N & N N & Z M M M M N & N N & [ M M M M N & N N & \ M M M M N & N N & ] M M M M N & N N & ^ M M M M N & N N & _ M M M M N & N N & D l ` r ` a r ` b r ` c r ` d r ` e r ` f r ` g r ` h r ` i r ` j r ` k r ` l r ` m r ` n r ` o r ` p r ` q r ` r r ` s r ` t r ` u r ` v r ` w r ` x r ` y r ` z r ` { r ` | r ` } r ` ~ r ` r ` ` M M M M N & N N & a M M M M N & N N & b M M M M N & N N & c M M M M N & N N & d M M M M N & N N & e M M M M N & N N & f M M M M N & N N & g M M M M N & N N & h M M M M N & N N & i M M M M N & N N & j M M M M N & N N & k M M M M N & N N & l M M M M N & N N & m M M M M N & N N & n M M M M N & N N & o M M M M N & N N & p M M M M N & N N & q M M M M N & N N & r M M M M N & N N & s M M M M N & N N & t M M M M N & N N & u M M M M N & N N & v M M M M N & N N & w M M M M N & N N & x M M M M N & N N & y M M M M N & N N & z M M M M N & N N & { M M M M N & N N & | M M M M N & N N & } M M M M N & N N & ~ M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & D l r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & D l r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & D l r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & D l r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & D l r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r `
r ` r ` r `
r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N &
M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N &
M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & D l r ` ! r ` " r ` # r ` $ r ` % r
! " # $ % & ' ( ) * + , - . / 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 : ; < = > ? @ A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z [ \ ] ^ _ ` a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o q r s t u v w x y z { | } ~ ` & r ` ' r ` ( r ` ) r ` * r ` + r ` , r ` - r ` . r ` / r ` 0 r ` 1 r ` 2 r ` 3 r ` 4 r ` 5 r ` 6 r ` 7 r ` 8 r ` 9 r ` : r ` ; r ` < r ` = r ` > r ` ? r ` M M M M N & N N & ! M M M M N & N N & " M M M M N & N N & # M M M M N & N N & $ M M M M N & N N & % M M M M N & N N & & M M M M N & N N & ' M M M M N & N N & ( M M M M N & N N & ) M M M M N & N N & * M M M M N & N N & + M M M M N & N N & , M M M M N & N N & - M M M M N & N N & . M M M M N & N N & / M M M M N & N N & 0 M M M M N & N N & 1 M M M M N & N N & 2 M M M M N & N N & 3 M M M M N & N N & 4 M M M M N & N N & 5 M M M M N & N N & 6 M M M M N & N N & 7 M M M M N & N N & 8 M M M M N & N N & 9 M M M M N & N N & : M M M M N & N N & ; M M M M N & N N & < M M M M N & N N & = M M M M N & N N & > M M M M N & N N & ? M M M M N & N N & D l @ r ` A r ` B r ` C r ` D r ` E r ` F r ` G r ` H r ` I r ` J r ` K r ` L r ` M r ` N r ` O r ` P r ` Q r ` R r ` S r ` T r ` U r ` V r ` W r ` X r ` Y r ` Z r ` [ r ` \ r ` ] r ` ^ r ` _ r ` @ M M M M N & N N & A M M M M N & N N & B M M M M N & N N & C M M M M N & N N & D M M M M N & N N & E M M M M N & N N & F M M M M N & N N & G M M M M N & N N & H M M M M N & N N & I M M M M N & N N & J M M M M N & N N & K M M M M N & N N & L M M M M N & N N & M M M M M N & N N & N M M M M N & N N & O M M M M N & N N & P M M M M N & N N & Q M M M M N & N N & R M M M M N & N N & S M M M M N & N N & T M M M M N & N N & U M M M M N & N N & V M M M M N & N N & W M M M M N & N N & X M M M M N & N N & Y M M M M N & N N & Z M M M M N & N N & [ M M M M N & N N & \ M M M M N & N N & ] M M M M N & N N & ^ M M M M N & N N & _ M M M M N & N N & D l ` r ` a r ` b r ` c r ` d r ` e r ` f r ` g r ` h r ` i r ` j r ` k r ` l r ` m r ` n r ` o r ` p r ` q r ` r r ` s r ` t r ` u r ` v r ` w r ` x r ` y r ` z r ` { r ` | r ` } r ` ~ r ` r ` ` M M M M N & N N & a M M M M N & N N & b M M M M N & N N & c M M M M N & N N & d M M M M N & N N & e M M M M N & N N & f M M M M N & N N & g M M M M N & N N & h M M M M N & N N & i M M M M N & N N & j M M M M N & N N & k M M M M N & N N & l M M M M N & N N & m M M M M N & N N & n M M M M N & N N & o M M M M N & N N & p M M M M N & N N & q M M M M N & N N & r M M M M N & N N & s M M M M N & N N & t M M M M N & N N & u M M M M N & N N & v M M M M N & N N & w M M M M N & N N & x M M M M N & N N & y M M M M N & N N & z M M M M N & N N & { M M M M N & N N & | M M M M N & N N & } M M M M N & N N & ~ M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & D l r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & D l r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & D l r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & D l r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & D l r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r `
r ` r ` r `
r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N &
M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N &
M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & D l r ` ! r ` " r ` # r ` $ r ` % r ` & r ` ' r ` ( r ` ) r ` * r ` + r ` , r ` - r ` . r ` / r ` 0 r ` 1 r ` 2 r ` 3 r ` 4 r ` 5 r ` 6 r ` 7 r ` 8 r ` 9 r ` : r ` ; r ` < r ` = r ` > r ` ? r ` M M M M N & N N & ! M M M M N & N N & " M M M M N & N N & # M M M M N & N N & $ M M M M N & N N & % M M M M N & N N & & M M M M N & N N & ' M M M M N & N N & ( M M M M N & N N & ) M M M M N & N N & * M M M M N & N N & + M M M M N & N N & , M M M M N & N N & - M M M M N & N N & . M M M M N & N N & / M M M M N & N N & 0 M M M M N & N N & 1 M M M M N & N N & 2 M M M M N & N N & 3 M M M M N & N N & 4 M M M M N & N N & 5 M M M M N & N N & 6 M M M M N & N N & 7 M M M M N & N N & 8 M M M M N & N N & 9 M M M M N & N N & : M M M M N & N N & ; M M M M N & N N & < M M M M N & N N & = M M M M N & N N & > M M M M N & N N & ? M M M M N & N N & D l @ r ` A r ` B r ` C r ` D r ` E r ` F r ` G r ` H r ` I r ` J r ` K r ` L r ` M r ` N r ` O r ` P r ` Q r ` R r ` S r ` T r ` U r ` V r ` W r ` X r ` Y r ` Z r ` [ r ` \ r ` ] r ` ^ r ` _ r ` @ M M M M N & N N & A M M M M N & N N & B M M M M N & N N & C M M M M N & N N & D M M M M N & N N & E M M M M N & N N & F M M M M N & N N & G M M M M N & N N & H M M M M N & N N & I M M M M N & N N & J M M M M N & N N & K M M M M N & N N & L M M M M N & N N & M M M M M N & N N & N M M M M N & N N & O M M M M N & N N & P M M M M N & N N & Q M M M M N & N N & R M M M M N & N N & S M M M M N & N N & T M M M M N & N N & U M M M M N & N N & V M M M M N & N N & W M M M M N & N N & X M M M M N & N N & Y M M M M N & N N & Z M M M M N & N N & [ M M M M N & N N & \ M M M M N & N N & ] M M M M N & N N & ^ M M M M N & N N & _ M M M M N & N N & D l ` r ` a r ` b r ` c r ` d r ` e r ` f r ` g r ` h r ` i r ` j r ` k r ` l r ` m r ` n r ` o r ` p r ` q r ` r r ` s r ` t r ` u r ` v r ` w r ` x r ` y r ` z r ` { r ` | r ` } r ` ~ r ` r ` ` M M M M N & N N & a M M M M N & N N & b M M M M N & N N & c M M M M N & N N & d M M M M N & N N & e M M M M N & N N & f M M M M N & N N & g M M M M N & N N & h M M M M N & N N & i M M M M N & N N & j M M M M N & N N & k M M M M N & N N & l M M M M N & N N & m M M M M N & N N & n M M M M N & N N & o M M M M N & N N & p M M M M N & N N & q M M M M N & N N & r M M M M N & N N & s M M M M N & N N & t M M M M N & N N & u M M M M N & N N & v M M M M N & N N & w M M M M N & N N & x M M M M N & N N & y M M M M N & N N & z M M M M N & N N & { M M M M N & N N & | M M M M N & N N & } M M M M N & N N & ~ M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & D l r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & D l r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & D l r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & D l r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & D l r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r `
r ` r ` r `
r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N &
M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N &
M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & D l r ` ! r ` " r ` # r ` $ r ` % r ` & r ` ' r ` ( r ` ) r ` * r ` + r ` , r ` - r ` . r ` / r ` 0 r ` 1 r ` 2 r ` 3 r ` 4 r ` 5 r ` 6 r ` 7 r ` 8 r ` 9 r ` : r ` ; r ` < r ` = r ` > r ` ? r ` M M M M N & N N & ! M M M M N & N N & " M M M M N & N N & # M M M M N & N N & $ M M M M N & N N & % M M M M N & N N & & M M M M N & N N & ' M M M M N & N N & ( M M M M N & N N & ) M M M M N & N N & * M M M M N & N N & + M M M M N & N N & , M M M M N & N N & - M M M M N & N N & . M M M M N & N N & / M M M M N & N N & 0 M M M M N & N N & 1 M M M M N & N N & 2 M M M M N & N N & 3 M M M M N & N N & 4 M M M M N & N N & 5 M M M M N & N N & 6 M M M M N & N N & 7 M M M M N & N N & 8 M M M M N & N N & 9 M M M M N & N N & : M M M M N & N N & ; M M M M N & N N & < M M M M N & N N & = M M M M N & N N & > M M M M N & N N & ? M M M M N & N N & D l @ r ` A r ` B r ` C r ` D r ` E r ` F r ` G r ` H r ` I r ` J r ` K r ` L r ` M r ` N r ` O r ` P r ` Q r ` R r ` S r ` T r ` U r ` V r ` W r ` X r ` Y r ` Z r ` [ r ` \ r ` ] r ` ^ r ` _ r ` @ M M M M N & N N & A M M M M N & N N & B M M M M N & N N & C M M M M N & N N & D M M M M N & N N & E M M M M N & N N & F M M M M N & N N & G M M M M N & N N & H M M M M N & N N & I M M M M N & N N & J M M M M N & N N & K M M M M N & N N & L M M M M N & N N & M M M M M N & N N & N M M M M N & N N & O M M M M N & N N & P M M M M N & N N & Q M M M M N & N N & R M M M M N & N N & S M M M M N & N N & T M M M M N & N N & U M M M M N & N N & V M M M M N & N N & W M M M M N & N N & X M M M M N & N N & Y M M M M N & N N & Z M M M M N & N N & [ M M M M N & N N & \ M M M M N & N N & ] M M M M N & N N & ^ M M M M N & N N & _ M M M M N & N N & D l ` r ` a r ` b r ` c r ` d r ` e r ` f r ` g r ` h r ` i r ` j r ` k r ` l r ` m r ` n r ` o r ` p r ` q r ` r r ` s r ` t r ` u r ` v r ` w r ` x r ` y r ` z r ` { r ` | r ` } r ` ~ r ` r ` ` M M M M N & N N & a M M M M N & N N & b M M M M N & N N & c M M M M N & N N & d M M M M N & N N & e M M M M N & N N & f M M M M N & N N & g M M M M N & N N & h M M M M N & N N & i M M M M N & N N & j M M M M N & N N & k M M M M N & N N & l M M M M N & N N & m M M M M N & N N & n M M M M N & N N & o M M M M N & N N & p M M M M N & N N & q M M M M N & N N & r M M M M N & N N & s M M M M N & N N & t M M M M N & N N & u M M M M N & N N & v M M M M N & N N & w M M M M N & N N & x M M M M N & N N & y M M M M N & N N & z M M M M N & N N & { M M M M N & N N & | M M M M N & N N & } M M M M N & N N & ~ M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & D l r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & D l r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & D l r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & D l r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & D l r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r `
r ` r ` r `
r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` r ` M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N &
M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N &
M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & M M M M N & N N & D l r ` ! r ` " r ` # r ` $ r ` % r ` & r ` ' r ` ( r ` ) r ` * r ` + r ` , r ` - r ` . r ` / r ` 0 r ` 1 r ` 2 r ` 3 r ` 4 r ` 5 r ` 6 r ` 7 r ` 8 r ` 9 r ` : r ` ; r ` < r ` = r ` > r ` ? r ` M M M M N & N N & ! M M M M N & N N & " M M M M N & N N & # M M M M N & N N & $ M M M M N & N N & % M M M M N & N N & & M M M M N & N N & ' M M M M N & N N & ( M M M M N & N N & ) M M M M N & N N & * M M M M N & N N & + M M M M N & N N & , M M M M N & N N & - M M M M N & N N & . M M M M N & N N & / M M M M N & N N & 0 M M M M N & N N & 1 M M M M N & N N & 2 M M M M N & N N & 3 M M M M N & N N & 4 M M M M N & N N & 5 M M M M N & N N & 6 M M M M N & N N & 7 M M M M N & N N & 8 M M M M N & N N & 9 M M M M N & N N & : M M M M N & N N & ; M M M M N & N N & < M M M M N & N N & = M M M M N & N N & > M M M M N & N N & ? 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@ * 7 ` y K F T h e 1 9 9 8 b l e a c h i n g e v e n t a n d i t s a f t e r m a t h o n a c o r a l r e e f i n B e l i z e . y K h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / a 6 w 9 a 5 q 9 9 3 v p p g r b / f u l l t e x t . p d f yX; H,]ą'c 8 8 y K G l o b a l a n d P l a n e t a r y C h a n g e y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 2 1 8 1 8 1 yX; H,]ą'c F F y K ! A d v a n c e s i n E c o l o g i c a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e - d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / b o o k s e r i e s / 0 0 6 5 2 5 0 4 yX; H,]ą'c y K A m e r i c a n J o u r n a l o f B o t a n y y K F h t t p : / / w w w . a m j b o t . o r g / yX; H,]ą'c y K 3 A n n a l s o f t h e A s s o c i a t i o n o f A m e r i c a n G e o g r a p h e r s y K x h t t p : / / w w w . a a g . o r g / P u b l i c a t i o n s / a n n a l s w e b 1 . h t m l yX; H,]ą'c "~ ~ y K / A n n u a l R e v i e w o f E a r t h a n d P l a n e t a r y S c i e n c e s y K h t t p : / / a r j o u r n a l s . a n n u a l r e v i e w s . o r g / l o i / e a r t h ? c o o k i e S e t = 1 yX; H,]ą'c y K 4 A n n u a l R e v i e w o f E c o l o g y E v o l u t i o n a n d S y s t e m a t i c s y K x h t t p : / / a r j o u r n a l s . a n n u a l r e v i e w s . o r g / l o i / e c o l s y s yX; H,]ą'c n n y K B i o t r o p i c a y K h t t p : / / w w w 3 . i n t e r s c i e n c e . w i l e y . c o m / j o u r n a l / 1 1 8 5 0 1 4 6 6 / h o m e yX; H,]ą'c 6 y K @ C l i m a t e c h a n g e i m p a c t s a n d a d a p t a t i o n a s s e s s m e n t i n B a n g l a d e s h . y K ~ h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / a r t i c l e s / c r / 1 2 / c 0 1 2 p 1 0 9 . p d f yX; H,]ą'c $m m y K 7 A d a p t a t i o n t o t h e i m p a c t s o f s e a l e v e l r i s e i n E g y p t . y K ~ h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / a r t i c l e s / c r / 1 2 / c 0 1 2 p 1 1 7 . p d f yX; H,]ą'c x x y K C o n t e m p o r a r y E c o n o m i c P o l i c y y K h t t p : / / w w w 3 . i n t e r s c i e n c e . w i l e y . c o m / j o u r n a l / 1 1 8 5 3 6 1 3 6 / h o m e yX; H,]ą'c y K ] H o l o c e n e c o r a l r e e f a c c r e t i o n i n H a w a i i : a f u n c t i o n o f w a v e e x p o s u r e a n d s e a l e v e l h i s t o r y . y K h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / y m c 3 l r v 7 c q x c l 3 m l / f u l l t e x t . p d f yX; H,]ą'c | y K T D r o w n e d r e e f s a n d a n t e c e d e n t k a r s t t o p o g r a p h y , A u ' a u C h a n n e l , S E H a w a i i a n I s l a n d s . y K h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 5 v r 6 v p j 0 6 v r d 3 5 c l / f u l l t e x t . p d f yX; H,]ą'c Z [ y K E a r t h - S c i e n c e R e v i e w s y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 0 1 2 8 2 5 2 yX; H,]ą'c y K E c o n o m i c G e o g r a p h y y K b h t t p : / / w w w . c l a r k u . e d u / E C O N G E O G R A P H Y / yX; H,]ą'c ~_ _ y K a R a p i d s h o r e w a r d e n c r o a c h m e n t o f s a l t m a r s h c o r d g r a s s i n r e s p o n s e t o a c c e l e r a t e d s e a - l e v e l r i s e . y K h t t p : / / w w w . p n a s . o r g / c o n t e n t / 9 8 / 2 5 / 1 4 2 1 8 . f u l l . p d f + h t m l yX; H,]ą'c y K " A d v a n c e s i n A t m o s p h e r i c S c i e n c e s y K t h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 0 2 5 6 - 1 5 3 0 yX; H,]ą'c y K A m b i o y K h t t p : / / a m b i o . a l l e n p r e s s . c o m / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l & c t = 1 yX; H,]ą'c mm y K A m e r i c a n N a t u r a l i s t y K x h t t p : / / w w w . j o u r n a l s . u c h i c a g o . e d u / t o c / a n / c u r r e n t yX; H,]ą'c Jmm y K E S e l f - o r g a n i z a t i o n a n d v e g e t a t i o n c o l l a p s e i n s a l t m a r s h e c o s y s t e m s . y K h t t p : / / w w w . j o u r n a l s . u c h i c a g o . e d u / d o i / p d f / 1 0 . 1 0 8 6 / 4 2 6 6 0 2 yX; H,]ą'c BB y K A q u a t i c B o t a n y y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 3 0 4 3 7 7 0 yX; H,]ą'c y K A s t r o n o m y & G e o p h y s i c s y K h t t p : / / w w w 3 . i n t e r s c i e n c e . w i l e y . c o m / j o u r n a l / 1 1 7 9 8 0 2 2 3 / h o m e yX; H,]ą'c pp y K B a s i n R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . b l a c k w e l l p u b l i s h i n g . c o m / j o u r n a l . a s p ? r e f = 0 9 5 0 - 0 9 1 X & s i t e = 1 yX; H,]ą'c y K B i o s c i e n c e y K | h t t p : / / w w w . a i b s . o r g / b i o s c i e n c e / c u r r e n t _ i s s u e . h t m l yX; H,]ą'c y K C o a s t a l z o n e o f T h e G a m b i a a n d t h e A b i d j a n r e g i o n i n C o t e d ' I v o i r e : s e a l e v e l r i s e v u l n e r a b i l i t y , r e s p o n s e s t r a t e g i e s , a n d a d a p t a t i o n o p t i o n s . y K ~ h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / a r t i c l e s / c r / 1 2 / c 0 1 2 p 1 2 9 . p d f yX; H,]ą'c r y K ^ V u l n e r a b i l i t y o f i s l a n d c o u n t r i e s i n t h e S o u t h P a c i f i c t o s e a l e v e l r i s e a n d c l i m a t e c h a n g e . y K ~ h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / a r t i c l e s / c r / 1 2 / c 0 1 2 p 1 3 7 . p d f yX; H,]ą'c H y K I C l i m a t e c h a n g e i m p a c t s a n d r e s p o n s e s i n t h e P h i l i p p i n e s c o a s t a l s e c t o r . y K ~ h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / a r t i c l e s / c r / 1 2 / c 0 1 2 p 0 9 7 . p d f yX; H,]ą'c y K V u l n e r a b i l i t y o f t h e c o a s t a l z o n e o f T h e G a m b i a t o s e a l e v e l r i s e a n d d e v e l o p m e n t o f r e s p o n s e s t r a t e g i e s a n d a d a p t a t i o n o p t i o n s . y K | h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / a r t i c l e s / c r / 6 / c 0 0 6 p 1 6 5 . p d f yX; H,]ą'c y K { P o t e n t i a l i m p a c t s o f c l i m a t e c h a n g e o n e c o s y s t e m s : A r e v i e w o f i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r p o l i c y m a k e r s a n d c o n s e r v a t i o n b i o l o g i s t s . y K | h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / a r t i c l e s / c r / 6 / c 0 0 6 p 1 7 9 . p d f yX; H,]ą'c
HH y K + C l i m a t e c h a n g e a d a p t a t i o n p o l i c y o p t i o n s . y K | h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / a r t i c l e s / c r / 6 / c 0 0 6 p 1 9 3 . p d f yX; H,]ą'c @ y K A F u t u r e c l i m a t e c h a n g e a n d i t s i m p a c t s o v e r s m a l l i s l a n d s t a t e s . y K h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / a r t i c l e s / c r 2 0 0 2 / 1 9 / c 0 1 9 p 1 7 9 . p d f yX; H,]ą'c P y K M T h e p o t e n t i a l i m p a c t s o f c l i m a t e c h a n g e o n t h e m i d - A t l a n t i c c o a s t a l r e g i o n . y K ~ h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / a r t i c l e s / c r / 1 4 / c 0 1 4 p 2 1 9 . p d f yX; H,]ą'c H y K I R e g i o n a l i s s u e s r a i s e d b y s e a - l e v e l r i s e a n d t h e i r p o l i c y i m p l i c a t i o n s . y K ~ h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / a r t i c l e s / c r / 1 1 / c 0 1 1 p 0 0 5 . p d f yX; H,]ą'c (88 y K 9 R i s k s , o p p o r t u n i t i e s , a n d a d a p t a t i o n t o c l i m a t e c h a n g e . y K ~ h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / a r t i c l e s / c r / 1 1 / c 0 1 1 p 0 8 5 . p d f yX; H,]ą'c ,.. y K ; C l i m a t e c h a n g e a n d e c o s y s t e m s o f t h e M i d - A t l a n t i c R e g i o n . y K ~ h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / a r t i c l e s / c r / 1 4 / c 0 1 4 p 2 3 5 . p d f yX; H,]ą'c h55 y K Z A s s e s s m e n t o f i m p a c t s o f a p o t e n t i a l s e a - l e v e l r i s e o n t h e c o a s t o f M o n t e v i d e o , U r u g u a y . y K | h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / a r t i c l e s / c r / 9 / c 0 0 9 p 0 7 3 . p d f yX; H,]ą'c VV y K g M a p s o f l a n d s v u l n e r a b l e t o s e a l e v e l r i s e : m o d e l e d e l e v a t i o n s a l o n g t h e U S A t l a n t i c a n d G u l f c o a s t s . y K ~ h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / a r t i c l e s / c r / 1 8 / c 0 1 8 p 2 0 5 . p d f yX; H,]ą'c N y K L I n t e g r a t e d r e g i o n a l a s s e s s m e n t a n d c l i m a t e c h a n g e i m p a c t s i n r i v e r b a s i n s . y K ~ h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / a r t i c l e s / c r / 1 1 / c 0 1 1 p 0 6 5 . p d f yX; H,]ą'c y K C u r r e n t S c i e n c e y K T h t t p : / / w w w . i a s . a c . i n / c u r r s c i / yX; H,]ą'c ^ y K X A s s e s s i n g v u l n e r a b i l i t y t o c l i m a t e c h a n g e : T h e l i n k b e t w e e n o b j e c t i v e s a n d a s s e s s m e n t . y K v h t t p : / / w w w . i a s . a c . i n / c u r r s c i / f e b 1 0 2 0 0 6 / 3 7 6 . p d f yX; H,]ą'c y K E c o l o g y L a w Q u a r t e r l y y K L h t t p : / / w w w . b o a l t . o r g / e l q / yX; H,]ą'c y K U E x t r e m e n a t u r a l h a z a r d s : P o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h , g l o b a l i z a t i o n a n d e n v i r o n m e n t a l c h a n g e . y K h t t p : / / j o u r n a l s . r o y a l s o c i e t y . o r g / c o n t e n t / 8 0 6 4 p 7 l 4 h 0 2 7 7 6 8 p / f u l l t e x t . p d f yX; H,]ą'c J y K 6 M a n a g i n g e x t r e m e n a t u r a l d i s a s t e r s i n c o a s t a l a r e a s . y K h t t p : / / j o u r n a l s . r o y a l s o c i e t y . o r g / c o n t e n t / 1 0 u 4 3 6 7 2 2 1 2 4 6 2 t n / f u l l t e x t . p d f yX; H,]ą'c y K q I m p a c t s a n d r e s p o n s e s t o s e a - l e v e l r i s e : a g l o b a l a n a l y s i s o f t h e S R E S s c e n a r i o s o v e r t h e t w e n t y - f i r s t c e n t u r y . y K h t t p : / / j o u r n a l s . r o y a l s o c i e t y . o r g / c o n t e n t / 0 2 n 2 r 8 7 8 l 9 4 8 4 2 6 2 / f u l l t e x t . p d f yX; H,]ą'c | y K O R e c e n t r e l a t i v e s e a - l e v e l t r e n d s : a n a t t e m p t t o q u a n t i f y t h e f o r c i n g f a c t o r s . y K h t t p : / / j o u r n a l s . r o y a l s o c i e t y . o r g / c o n t e n t / p 3 4 2 2 m 7 7 1 5 7 6 j 1 1 3 / f u l l t e x t . p d f yX; H,]ą'c 0 y K ) F l o o d s i n a c h a n g i n g c l i m a t e : a r e v i e w . y K h t t p : / / j o u r n a l s . r o y a l s o c i e t y . o r g / c o n t e n t / 2 p e d 7 9 1 d 4 0 d 5 t k a 7 / f u l l t e x t . p d f yX; H,]ą'c y K ) T w e n t i e t h c e n t u r y s e a l e v e l : A n e n i g m a . y K h t t p : / / w w w . p n a s . o r g / c o n t e n t / 9 9 / 1 0 / 6 5 5 0 . f u l l . p d f + h t m l yX; H,]ą'c T)) y K M E c o s y s t e m r e c o v e r y a f t e r c l i m a t i c e x t r e m e s e n h a n c e d b y g e n o t y p i c d i v e r s i t y . y K h t t p : / / w w w . p n a s . o r g / c o n t e n t / 1 0 2 / 8 / 2 8 2 6 . f u l l . p d f + h t m l yX; H,]ą'c \ y K
2 1 : 6 1 7 - 6 2 6 .
A b s t r a c t s ! A 1 y K A d v a n c e s i n M a r i n e B i o l o g y y K ^ h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e ? _ o b = P u b l i c a t i o n U R L & _ c d i = 1 8 0 4 7 & _ a u t h = y & _ a c c t = C 0 0 0 0 5 0 2 2 1 & _ v e r s i o n = 1 & _ u s e r i d = 1 0 & _ p u b T y p e = B S & m d 5 = 9 0 b 3 8 6 f 0 c 2 c 8 5 1 d 9 b a 1 9 0 c 4 e 6 4 a 8 6 8 0 7 yX; H,]ą'c y K A d v a n c e s i n M a r i n e B i o l o g y y K ^ h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e ? _ o b = P u b l i c a t i o n U R L & _ c d i = 1 8 0 4 7 & _ a u t h = y & _ a c c t = C 0 0 0 0 5 0 2 2 1 & _ v e r s i o n = 1 & _ u s e r i d = 1 0 & _ p u b T y p e = B S & m d 5 = 9 0 b 3 8 6 f 0 c 2 c 8 5 1 d 9 b a 1 9 0 c 4 e 6 4 a 8 6 8 0 7 yX; H,]ą'c y K , A n n u a l R e v i e w o f E n v i r o n m e n t a n d R e s o u r c e s y K v h t t p : / / a r j o u r n a l s . a n n u a l r e v i e w s . o r g / l o i / e n e r g y yX; H,]ą'c y K , A n n u a l R e v i e w o f E n v i r o n m e n t a n d R e s o u r c e s y K v h t t p : / / a r j o u r n a l s . a n n u a l r e v i e w s . o r g / l o i / e n e r g y yX; H,]ą'c S S y K C l i m a t e P o l i c y y K d h t t p : / / w w w . e a r t h s c a n . c o . u k / ? t a b i d = 4 8 0 yX; H,]ą'c 3 3 y K C l i m a t e P o l i c y y K d h t t p : / / w w w . e a r t h s c a n . c o . u k / ? t a b i d = 4 8 0 yX; H,]ą'c y K C l i m a t e P o l i c y y K d h t t p : / / w w w . e a r t h s c a n . c o . u k / ? t a b i d = 4 8 0 yX; H,]ą'c y K C l i m a t e R e s e a r c h y K ` h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / c r / yX; H,]ą'c y K C l i m a t e R e s e a r c h y K ` h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / c r / yX; H,]ą'c y K C l i m a t e R e s e a r c h y K ` h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / c r / yX; H,]ą'c HH y K C l i m a t e R e s e a r c h y K ` h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / c r / yX; H,]ą'c 55 y K C l i m a t e R e s e a r c h y K ` h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / c r / yX; H,]ą'c y K C l i m a t e R e s e a r c h y K ` h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / c r / yX; H,]ą'c 88 y K C l i m a t e R e s e a r c h y K ` h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / c r / yX; H,]ą'c y K C l i m a t e R e s e a r c h y K ` h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / c r / yX; H,]ą'c m m y K C l i m a t e R e s e a r c h y K ` h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / c r / yX; H,]ą'c y K C l i m a t e R e s e a r c h y K ` h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / c r / yX; H,]ą'c y K C l i m a t e R e s e a r c h y K ` h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / c r / yX; H,]ą'c y K C l i m a t e R e s e a r c h y K ` h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / c r / yX; H,]ą'c y K C l i m a t e R e s e a r c h y K ` h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / c r / yX; H,]ą'c .. y K C l i m a t e R e s e a r c h y K ` h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / c r / yX; H,]ą'c VV y K C l i m a t e R e s e a r c h y K ` h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / c r / yX; H,]ą'c y K C l i m a t e R e s e a r c h y K ` h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / c r / yX; H,]ą'c y K C l i m a t e R e s e a r c h y K ` h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / c r / yX; H,]ą'c y K C l i m a t e R e s e a r c h y K ` h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / c r / yX; H,]ą'c y K C l i m a t i c C h a n g e y K p h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / yX; H,]ą'c Q Q y K C l i m a t i c C h a n g e y K p h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / yX; H,]ą'c // y K C l i m a t i c C h a n g e y K p h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / yX; H,]ą'c y K C l i m a t i c C h a n g e y K p h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / yX; H,]ą'c GG y K C l i m a t i c C h a n g e y K p h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / yX; H,]ą'c WW y K C l i m a t i c C h a n g e y K p h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / yX; H,]ą'c y K C l i m a t i c C h a n g e y K p h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / yX; H,]ą'c y K C l i m a t i c C h a n g e y K p h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / yX; H,]ą'c y K C l i m a t i c C h a n g e y K p h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / yX; H,]ą'c y K C l i m a t i c C h a n g e y K p h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / yX; H,]ą'c y K C l i m a t i c C h a n g e y K p h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / yX; H,]ą'c ;; y K C l i m a t i c C h a n g e y K p h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / yX; H,]ą'c y K C l i m a t i c C h a n g e y K p h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / yX; H,]ą'c }} y K C l i m a t i c C h a n g e y K p h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / yX; H,]ą'c tt y K C l i m a t i c C h a n g e y K p h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / yX; H,]ą'c y K C l i m a t i c C h a n g e y K p h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / yX; H,]ą'c {{ y K C l i m a t i c C h a n g e y K p h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / yX; H,]ą'c y K C l i m a t i c C h a n g e y K p h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / yX; H,]ą'c y K C l i m a t i c C h a n g e y K p h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / yX; H,]ą'c
y K C l i m a t i c C h a n g e y K p h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / yX; H,]ą'c y K C l i m a t i c C h a n g e y K p h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / yX; H,]ą'c 6 6 y K C l i m a t i c C h a n g e y K p h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / yX; H,]ą'c y K C l i m a t i c C h a n g e y K p h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / yX; H,]ą'c L L y K C o a s t a l M a n a g e m e n t y K d h t t p : / / d e p t s . w a s h i n g t o n . e d u / c o a s t j n l / yX; H,]ą'c y K C o a s t a l M a n a g e m e n t y K d h t t p : / / d e p t s . w a s h i n g t o n . e d u / c o a s t j n l / yX; H,]ą'c UU y K C o a s t a l M a n a g e m e n t y K d h t t p : / / d e p t s . w a s h i n g t o n . e d u / c o a s t j n l / yX; H,]ą'c y K C o a s t a l M a n a g e m e n t y K d h t t p : / / d e p t s . w a s h i n g t o n . e d u / c o a s t j n l / yX; H,]ą'c y K C o a s t a l M a n a g e m e n t y K d h t t p : / / d e p t s . w a s h i n g t o n . e d u / c o a s t j n l / yX; H,]ą'c M M y K C o a s t a l M a n a g e m e n t y K d h t t p : / / d e p t s . w a s h i n g t o n . e d u / c o a s t j n l / yX; H,]ą'c y K C o a s t a l M a n a g e m e n t y K d h t t p : / / d e p t s . w a s h i n g t o n . e d u / c o a s t j n l / yX; H,]ą'c | | y K C o a s t a l M a n a g e m e n t y K d h t t p : / / d e p t s . w a s h i n g t o n . e d u / c o a s t j n l / yX; H,]ą'c y K C o a s t a l M a n a g e m e n t y K d h t t p : / / d e p t s . w a s h i n g t o n . e d u / c o a s t j n l / yX; H,]ą'c y K C o n s e r v a t i o n B i o l o g y y K h t t p : / / w w w 3 . i n t e r s c i e n c e . w i l e y . c o m / j o u r n a l / 1 1 8 4 8 7 6 3 6 / h o m e ? C R E T R Y = 1 & S R E T R Y = 0 yX; H,]ą'c y K C o n s e r v a t i o n B i o l o g y y K h t t p : / / w w w 3 . i n t e r s c i e n c e . w i l e y . c o m / j o u r n a l / 1 1 8 4 8 7 6 3 6 / h o m e ? C R E T R Y = 1 & S R E T R Y = 0 yX; H,]ą'c PP y K C o n s e r v a t i o n B i o l o g y y K h t t p : / / w w w 3 . i n t e r s c i e n c e . w i l e y . c o m / j o u r n a l / 1 1 8 4 8 7 6 3 6 / h o m e ? C R E T R Y = 1 & S R E T R Y = 0 yX; H,]ą'c y K
C o r a l R e e f s y K t h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 0 7 2 2 - 4 0 2 8 yX; H,]ą'c y K
C o r a l R e e f s y K t h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 0 7 2 2 - 4 0 2 8 yX; H,]ą'c y K ' E a r t h S u r f a c e P r o c e s s e s a n d L a n d f o r m s y K h t t p : / / w w w . w i l e y . c o m / W i l e y C D A / W i l e y T i t l e / p r o d u c t C d - E S P . h t m l yX; H,]ą'c ## y K ' E a r t h S u r f a c e P r o c e s s e s a n d L a n d f o r m s y K h t t p : / / w w w . w i l e y . c o m / W i l e y C D A / W i l e y T i t l e / p r o d u c t C d - E S P . h t m l yX; H,]ą'c LL y K ' E a r t h S u r f a c e P r o c e s s e s a n d L a n d f o r m s y K h t t p : / / w w w . w i l e y . c o m / W i l e y C D A / W i l e y T i t l e / p r o d u c t C d - E S P . h t m l yX; H,]ą'c y K E a r t h - S c i e n c e R e v i e w s y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 0 1 2 8 2 5 2 yX; H,]ą'c y K E a r t h - S c i e n c e R e v i e w s y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 0 1 2 8 2 5 2 yX; H,]ą'c y K E c o l o g i c a l E c o n o m i c s y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 2 1 8 0 0 9 yX; H,]ą'c / / y K E c o l o g i c a l E c o n o m i c s y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 2 1 8 0 0 9 yX; H,]ą'c i i y K E c o l o g i c a l E c o n o m i c s y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 2 1 8 0 0 9 yX; H,]ą'c w w y K E c o l o g i c a l E c o n o m i c s y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 2 1 8 0 0 9 yX; H,]ą'c kk y K E c o l o g i c a l E c o n o m i c s y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 2 1 8 0 0 9 yX; H,]ą'c xx y K E c o l o g y y K h t t p : / / w w w . e s a p u b s . o r g / e s a p u b s / j o u r n a l s / e c o l o g y . h t m yX; H,]ą'c y K E c o l o g y y K h t t p : / / w w w . e s a p u b s . o r g / e s a p u b s / j o u r n a l s / e c o l o g y . h t m yX; H,]ą'c y K E c o l o g y y K h t t p : / / w w w . e s a p u b s . o r g / e s a p u b s / j o u r n a l s / e c o l o g y . h t m yX; H,]ą'c
y K E n v i r o n m e n t a n d P l a n n i n g A y K h t t p : / / w w w . e n v p l a n . c o m / c o n t e n t s . c g i ? j o u r n a l = A & i s s u e = c u r r e n t yX; H,]ą'c v v y K E n v i r o n m e n t a n d P l a n n i n g A y K h t t p : / / w w w . e n v p l a n . c o m / c o n t e n t s . c g i ? j o u r n a l = A & i s s u e = c u r r e n t yX; H,]ą'c bb y K E n v i r o n m e n t a n d P l a n n i n g A y K h t t p : / / w w w . e n v p l a n . c o m / c o n t e n t s . c g i ? j o u r n a l = A & i s s u e = c u r r e n t yX; H,]ą'c hh y K E n v i r o n m e n t a n d P l a n n i n g A y K h t t p : / / w w w . e n v p l a n . c o m / c o n t e n t s . c g i ? j o u r n a l = A & i s s u e = c u r r e n t yX; H,]ą'c y K E n v i r o n m e n t a n d U r b a n i z a t i o n y K H h t t p : / / e a u . s a g e p u b . c o m / yX; H,]ą'c b b y K E n v i r o n m e n t a n d U r b a n i z a t i o n y K H h t t p : / / e a u . s a g e p u b . c o m / yX; H,]ą'c f f y K E n v i r o n m e n t a n d U r b a n i z a t i o n y K H h t t p : / / e a u . s a g e p u b . c o m / yX; H,]ą'c y K E n v i r o n m e n t a n d U r b a n i z a t i o n y K H h t t p : / / e a u . s a g e p u b . c o m / yX; H,]ą'c ** y K E n v i r o n m e n t a n d U r b a n i z a t i o n y K H h t t p : / / e a u . s a g e p u b . c o m / yX; H,]ą'c ' ' y K $ E n v i r o n m e n t a l & R e s o u r c e E c o n o m i c s y K p h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 6 3 / yX; H,]ą'c H H y K $ E n v i r o n m e n t a l & R e s o u r c e E c o n o m i c s y K p h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 6 3 / yX; H,]ą'c XX y K $ E n v i r o n m e n t a l & R e s o u r c e E c o n o m i c s y K p h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 6 3 / yX; H,]ą'c YY y K $ E n v i r o n m e n t a l & R e s o u r c e E c o n o m i c s y K p h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 6 3 / yX; H,]ą'c \ y K E n v i r o n m e n t a l C o n s e r v a t i o n y K h t t p : / / j o u r n a l s . c a m b r i d g e . o r g / a c t i o n / d i s p l a y J o u r n a l ? j i d = E N C & b V o l u m e = y & s h o w C u r r e n t = n & s h o w D e c a d e = 2 0 0 0 & a r c h i v e C o n t e n t = & c u r r e n t C o n t e n t = & s h o w C u r r e n t S u b s c r i p t i o n P r i c e s = & s h o w A r c h i v e S u b s c r i p t i o n P r i c e s = & s h o w E B V S u b s c r i p t i o n P r i c e s = yX; H,]ą'c d e c a d e 2 0 0 0 \ y K E n v i r o n m e n t a l C o n s e r v a t i o n y K h t t p : / / j o u r n a l s . c a m b r i d g e . o r g / a c t i o n / d i s p l a y J o u r n a l ? j i d = E N C & b V o l u m e = y & s h o w C u r r e n t = n & s h o w D e c a d e = 2 0 0 0 & a r c h i v e C o n t e n t = & c u r r e n t C o n t e n t = & s h o w C u r r e n t S u b s c r i p t i o n P r i c e s = & s h o w A r c h i v e S u b s c r i p t i o n P r i c e s = & s h o w E B V S u b s c r i p t i o n P r i c e s = yX; H,]ą'c d e c a d e 2 0 0 0 \. . y K E n v i r o n m e n t a l C o n s e r v a t i o n y K h t t p : / / j o u r n a l s . c a m b r i d g e . o r g / a c t i o n / d i s p l a y J o u r n a l ? j i d = E N C & b V o l u m e = y & s h o w C u r r e n t = n & s h o w D e c a d e = 2 0 0 0 & a r c h i v e C o n t e n t = & c u r r e n t C o n t e n t = & s h o w C u r r e n t S u b s c r i p t i o n P r i c e s = & s h o w A r c h i v e S u b s c r i p t i o n P r i c e s = & s h o w E B V S u b s c r i p t i o n P r i c e s = yX; H,]ą'c d e c a d e 2 0 0 0 \ y K E n v i r o n m e n t a l C o n s e r v a t i o n y K h t t p : / / j o u r n a l s . c a m b r i d g e . o r g / a c t i o n / d i s p l a y J o u r n a l ? j i d = E N C & b V o l u m e = y & s h o w C u r r e n t = n & s h o w D e c a d e = 2 0 0 0 & a r c h i v e C o n t e n t = & c u r r e n t C o n t e n t = & s h o w C u r r e n t S u b s c r i p t i o n P r i c e s = & s h o w A r c h i v e S u b s c r i p t i o n P r i c e s = & s h o w E B V S u b s c r i p t i o n P r i c e s = yX; H,]ą'c d e c a d e 2 0 0 0 \SS y K E n v i r o n m e n t a l C o n s e r v a t i o n y K h t t p : / / j o u r n a l s . c a m b r i d g e . o r g / a c t i o n / d i s p l a y J o u r n a l ? j i d = E N C & b V o l u m e = y & s h o w C u r r e n t = n & s h o w D e c a d e = 2 0 0 0 & a r c h i v e C o n t e n t = & c u r r e n t C o n t e n t = & s h o w C u r r e n t S u b s c r i p t i o n P r i c e s = & s h o w A r c h i v e S u b s c r i p t i o n P r i c e s = & s h o w E B V S u b s c r i p t i o n P r i c e s = yX; H,]ą'c d e c a d e 2 0 0 0 O O y K ) E n v i r o n m e n t a l M o n i t o r i n g a n d A s s e s s m e n t y K p h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 2 8 7 8 / yX; H,]ą'c P P y K ) E n v i r o n m e n t a l M o n i t o r i n g a n d A s s e s s m e n t y K p h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 2 8 7 8 / yX; H,]ą'c r r y K ) E n v i r o n m e n t a l M o n i t o r i n g a n d A s s e s s m e n t y K p h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 2 8 7 8 / yX; H,]ą'c y K ) E n v i r o n m e n t a l M o n i t o r i n g a n d A s s e s s m e n t y K p h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 2 8 7 8 / yX; H,]ą'c y K ) E n v i r o n m e n t a l M o n i t o r i n g a n d A s s e s s m e n t y K p h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 2 8 7 8 / yX; H,]ą'c aa y K E n v i r o n m e n t a l S c i e n c e & P o l i c y y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 1 4 6 2 9 0 1 1 yX; H,]ą'c ZZ y K E n v i r o n m e n t a l S c i e n c e & P o l i c y y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 1 4 6 2 9 0 1 1 yX; H,]ą'c y K % E s t u a r i n e C o a s t a l a n d S h e l f S c i e n c e y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 2 7 2 7 7 1 4 yX; H,]ą'c ; ; y K % E s t u a r i n e C o a s t a l a n d S h e l f S c i e n c e y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 2 7 2 7 7 1 4 yX; H,]ą'c o o y K % E s t u a r i n e C o a s t a l a n d S h e l f S c i e n c e y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 2 7 2 7 7 1 4 yX; H,]ą'c y K % E s t u a r i n e C o a s t a l a n d S h e l f S c i e n c e y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 2 7 2 7 7 1 4 yX; H,]ą'c y K % E s t u a r i n e C o a s t a l a n d S h e l f S c i e n c e y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 2 7 2 7 7 1 4 yX; H,]ą'c 33 y K % E s t u a r i n e C o a s t a l a n d S h e l f S c i e n c e y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 2 7 2 7 7 1 4 yX; H,]ą'c II y K % E s t u a r i n e C o a s t a l a n d S h e l f S c i e n c e y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 2 7 2 7 7 1 4 yX; H,]ą'c KK y K % E s t u a r i n e C o a s t a l a n d S h e l f S c i e n c e y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 2 7 2 7 7 1 4 yX; H,]ą'c y K G e o p h y s i c a l R e s e a r c h L e t t e r s y K X h t t p : / / w w w . a g u . o r g / j o u r n a l s / g l / yX; H,]ą'c > > y K G e o p h y s i c a l R e s e a r c h L e t t e r s y K X h t t p : / / w w w . a g u . o r g / j o u r n a l s / g l / yX; H,]ą'c ` ` y K G e o p h y s i c a l R e s e a r c h L e t t e r s y K X h t t p : / / w w w . a g u . o r g / j o u r n a l s / g l / yX; H,]ą'c y K G e o p h y s i c a l R e s e a r c h L e t t e r s y K X h t t p : / / w w w . a g u . o r g / j o u r n a l s / g l / yX; H,]ą'c y K G e o p h y s i c a l R e s e a r c h L e t t e r s y K X h t t p : / / w w w . a g u . o r g / j o u r n a l s / g l / yX; H,]ą'c y K G e o p h y s i c a l R e s e a r c h L e t t e r s y K X h t t p : / / w w w . a g u . o r g / j o u r n a l s / g l / yX; H,]ą'c dd y K G e o p h y s i c a l R e s e a r c h L e t t e r s y K X h t t p : / / w w w . a g u . o r g / j o u r n a l s / g l / yX; H,]ą'c nn y K G e o p h y s i c a l R e s e a r c h L e t t e r s y K X h t t p : / / w w w . a g u . o r g / j o u r n a l s / g l / yX; H,]ą'c vv y K G e o p h y s i c a l R e s e a r c h L e t t e r s y K X h t t p : / / w w w . a g u . o r g / j o u r n a l s / g l / yX; H,]ą'c y K G e o p h y s i c a l R e s e a r c h L e t t e r s y K X h t t p : / / w w w . a g u . o r g / j o u r n a l s / g l / yX; H,]ą'c @ @ y K G l o b a l a n d P l a n e t a r y C h a n g e y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 2 1 8 1 8 1 yX; H,]ą'c y K G l o b a l a n d P l a n e t a r y C h a n g e y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 2 1 8 1 8 1 yX; H,]ą'c y K G l o b a l a n d P l a n e t a r y C h a n g e y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 2 1 8 1 8 1 yX; H,]ą'c y K G l o b a l a n d P l a n e t a r y C h a n g e y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 2 1 8 1 8 1 yX; H,]ą'c y K G l o b a l a n d P l a n e t a r y C h a n g e y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 2 1 8 1 8 1 yX; H,]ą'c y K G l o b a l a n d P l a n e t a r y C h a n g e y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 2 1 8 1 8 1 yX; H,]ą'c y K G l o b a l a n d P l a n e t a r y C h a n g e y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 2 1 8 1 8 1 yX; H,]ą'c "" y K G l o b a l a n d P l a n e t a r y C h a n g e y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 2 1 8 1 8 1 yX; H,]ą'c , y K 8 G l o b a l E n v i r o n m e n t a l C h a n g e - H u m a n a n d P o l i c y D i m e n s i o n s y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 5 9 3 7 8 0 yX; H,]ą'c , y K 8 G l o b a l E n v i r o n m e n t a l C h a n g e - H u m a n a n d P o l i c y D i m e n s i o n s y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 5 9 3 7 8 0 yX; H,]ą'c .
y K 9 G l o b a l E n v i r o n m e n t a l C h a n g e - H u m a n a n d P o l i c y D i m e n s i o n s y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 5 9 3 7 8 0 yX; H,]ą'c .- - y K 9 G l o b a l E n v i r o n m e n t a l C h a n g e - H u m a n a n d P o l i c y D i m e n s i o n s y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 5 9 3 7 8 0 yX; H,]ą'c .T T y K 9 G l o b a l E n v i r o n m e n t a l C h a n g e - H u m a n a n d P o l i c y D i m e n s i o n s y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 5 9 3 7 8 0 yX; H,]ą'c .U U y K 9 G l o b a l E n v i r o n m e n t a l C h a n g e - H u m a n a n d P o l i c y D i m e n s i o n s y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 5 9 3 7 8 0 yX; H,]ą'c . y K 9 G l o b a l E n v i r o n m e n t a l C h a n g e - H u m a n a n d P o l i c y D i m e n s i o n s y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 5 9 3 7 8 0 yX; H,]ą'c . y K 9 G l o b a l E n v i r o n m e n t a l C h a n g e - H u m a n a n d P o l i c y D i m e n s i o n s y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 5 9 3 7 8 0 yX; H,]ą'c . y K 9 G l o b a l E n v i r o n m e n t a l C h a n g e - H u m a n a n d P o l i c y D i m e n s i o n s y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 5 9 3 7 8 0 yX; H,]ą'c . y K 9 G l o b a l E n v i r o n m e n t a l C h a n g e - H u m a n a n d P o l i c y D i m e n s i o n s y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 5 9 3 7 8 0 yX; H,]ą'c . y K 9 G l o b a l E n v i r o n m e n t a l C h a n g e - H u m a n a n d P o l i c y D i m e n s i o n s y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 5 9 3 7 8 0 yX; H,]ą'c . y K 9 G l o b a l E n v i r o n m e n t a l C h a n g e - H u m a n a n d P o l i c y D i m e n s i o n s y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 5 9 3 7 8 0 yX; H,]ą'c . y K 9 G l o b a l E n v i r o n m e n t a l C h a n g e - H u m a n a n d P o l i c y D i m e n s i o n s y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 5 9 3 7 8 0 yX; H,]ą'c . y K 9 G l o b a l E n v i r o n m e n t a l C h a n g e - H u m a n a n d P o l i c y D i m e n s i o n s y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 5 9 3 7 8 0 yX; H,]ą'c . y K 9 G l o b a l E n v i r o n m e n t a l C h a n g e - H u m a n a n d P o l i c y D i m e n s i o n s y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 5 9 3 7 8 0 yX; H,]ą'c .__ y K 9 G l o b a l E n v i r o n m e n t a l C h a n g e - H u m a n a n d P o l i c y D i m e n s i o n s y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 5 9 3 7 8 0 yX; H,]ą'c .`` y K 9 G l o b a l E n v i r o n m e n t a l C h a n g e - H u m a n a n d P o l i c y D i m e n s i o n s y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 5 9 3 7 8 0 yX; H,]ą'c .cc y K 9 G l o b a l E n v i r o n m e n t a l C h a n g e - H u m a n a n d P o l i c y D i m e n s i o n s y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 5 9 3 7 8 0 yX; H,]ą'c y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c ! ! y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c % % y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c & & y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c * * y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c 4 4 y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c : : y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c D D y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c E E y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c G G y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c N N y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c V V y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c [ [ y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c \ \ y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c p p y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c { { y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c
y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c 22 y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c 66 y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c >> y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c ?? y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c EE y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c FF y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c NN y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c ]] y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c qq y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c rr y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c ww y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c y K J o u r n a l o f C o a s t a l R e s e a r c h y K h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l yX; H,]ą'c 5 5 y K ( J o u r n a l o f G e o p h y s i c a l R e s e a r c h - O c e a n s y K X h t t p : / / w w w . a g u . o r g / j o u r n a l s / j c / yX; H,]ą'c c c y K ( J o u r n a l o f G e o p h y s i c a l R e s e a r c h - O c e a n s y K X h t t p : / / w w w . a g u . o r g / j o u r n a l s / j c / yX; H,]ą'c y K ( J o u r n a l o f G e o p h y s i c a l R e s e a r c h - O c e a n s y K X h t t p : / / w w w . a g u . o r g / j o u r n a l s / j c / yX; H,]ą'c y K ( J o u r n a l o f G e o p h y s i c a l R e s e a r c h - O c e a n s y K X h t t p : / / w w w . a g u . o r g / j o u r n a l s / j c / yX; H,]ą'c y K ( J o u r n a l o f G e o p h y s i c a l R e s e a r c h - O c e a n s y K X h t t p : / / w w w . a g u . o r g / j o u r n a l s / j c / yX; H,]ą'c ee y K ( J o u r n a l o f G e o p h y s i c a l R e s e a r c h - O c e a n s y K X h t t p : / / w w w . a g u . o r g / j o u r n a l s / j c / yX; H,]ą'c g g y K , M a r i n e E c o l o g y - a n E v o l u t i o n a r y P e r s p e c t i v e y K h t t p : / / w w w 3 . i n t e r s c i e n c e . w i l e y . c o m / j o u r n a l / 1 1 8 4 9 4 4 9 6 / h o m e yX; H,]ą'c 99 y K , M a r i n e E c o l o g y - a n E v o l u t i o n a r y P e r s p e c t i v e y K h t t p : / / w w w 3 . i n t e r s c i e n c e . w i l e y . c o m / j o u r n a l / 1 1 8 4 9 4 4 9 6 / h o m e yX; H,]ą'c # # y K M a r i n e E c o l o g y - P r o g r e s s S e r i e s y K x h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / m e p s / i n d e x . h t m l yX; H,]ą'c W W y K M a r i n e E c o l o g y - P r o g r e s s S e r i e s y K x h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / m e p s / i n d e x . h t m l yX; H,]ą'c k k y K M a r i n e E c o l o g y - P r o g r e s s S e r i e s y K x h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / m e p s / i n d e x . h t m l yX; H,]ą'c y K M a r i n e G e o l o g y y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 0 2 5 3 2 2 7 yX; H,]ą'c X X y K M a r i n e G e o l o g y y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 0 2 5 3 2 2 7 yX; H,]ą'c y K M a r i n e G e o l o g y y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 0 2 5 3 2 2 7 yX; H,]ą'c y K M a r i n e G e o l o g y y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 0 2 5 3 2 2 7 yX; H,]ą'c y K M a r i n e G e o l o g y y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 0 2 5 3 2 2 7 yX; H,]ą'c y K M a r i n e G e o l o g y y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 0 2 5 3 2 2 7 yX; H,]ą'c << y K M a r i n e G e o l o g y y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 0 2 5 3 2 2 7 yX; H,]ą'c QQ y K M a r i n e G e o l o g y y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 0 2 5 3 2 2 7 yX; H,]ą'c zz y K M a r i n e G e o l o g y y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 0 2 5 3 2 2 7 yX; H,]ą'c
{ ! " / $ % & ' ( ) * + , - . 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 : ; < = > ? @ A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z [ \ ] ^ _ ` a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z C C y K M a r i n e P o l l u t i o n B u l l e t i n y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 0 2 5 3 2 6 X yX; H,]ą'c ] ] y K M a r i n e P o l l u t i o n B u l l e t i n y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 0 2 5 3 2 6 X yX; H,]ą'c y K M a r i n e P o l l u t i o n B u l l e t i n y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 0 2 5 3 2 6 X yX; H,]ą'c q q y K O c e a n & C o a s t a l M a n a g e m e n t y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 6 4 5 6 9 1 yX; H,]ą'c } } y K O c e a n & C o a s t a l M a n a g e m e n t y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 6 4 5 6 9 1 yX; H,]ą'c y K O c e a n & C o a s t a l M a n a g e m e n t y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 6 4 5 6 9 1 yX; H,]ą'c y K O c e a n & C o a s t a l M a n a g e m e n t y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 6 4 5 6 9 1 yX; H,]ą'c :: y K O c e a n & C o a s t a l M a n a g e m e n t y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 6 4 5 6 9 1 yX; H,]ą'c ^^ y K O c e a n & C o a s t a l M a n a g e m e n t y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 6 4 5 6 9 1 yX; H,]ą'c v y K b P h i l o s o p h i c a l T r a n s a c t i o n s o f t h e R o y a l S o c i e t y a - M a t h e m a t i c a l P h y s i c a l a n d E n g i n e e r i n g S c i e n c e s y K z h t t p : / / j o u r n a l s . r o y a l s o c i e t y . o r g / c o n t e n t / 1 0 2 0 2 1 / yX; H,]ą'c v y K b P h i l o s o p h i c a l T r a n s a c t i o n s o f t h e R o y a l S o c i e t y a - M a t h e m a t i c a l P h y s i c a l a n d E n g i n e e r i n g S c i e n c e s y K z h t t p : / / j o u r n a l s . r o y a l s o c i e t y . o r g / c o n t e n t / 1 0 2 0 2 1 / yX; H,]ą'c v y K b P h i l o s o p h i c a l T r a n s a c t i o n s o f t h e R o y a l S o c i e t y a - M a t h e m a t i c a l P h y s i c a l a n d E n g i n e e r i n g S c i e n c e s y K z h t t p : / / j o u r n a l s . r o y a l s o c i e t y . o r g / c o n t e n t / 1 0 2 0 2 1 / yX; H,]ą'c v y K b P h i l o s o p h i c a l T r a n s a c t i o n s o f t h e R o y a l S o c i e t y a - M a t h e m a t i c a l P h y s i c a l a n d E n g i n e e r i n g S c i e n c e s y K z h t t p : / / j o u r n a l s . r o y a l s o c i e t y . o r g / c o n t e n t / 1 0 2 0 2 1 / yX; H,]ą'c :_ _ y K Q P r o c e e d i n g s o f t h e N a t i o n a l A c a d e m y o f S c i e n c e s o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s o f A m e r i c a y K ` h t t p : / / w w w . p n a s . o r g / c o n t e n t / b y / y e a r yX; H,]ą'c : y K Q P r o c e e d i n g s o f t h e N a t i o n a l A c a d e m y o f S c i e n c e s o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s o f A m e r i c a y K ` h t t p : / / w w w . p n a s . o r g / c o n t e n t / b y / y e a r yX; H,]ą'c :)) y K Q P r o c e e d i n g s o f t h e N a t i o n a l A c a d e m y o f S c i e n c e s o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s o f A m e r i c a y K ` h t t p : / / w w w . p n a s . o r g / c o n t e n t / b y / y e a r yX; H,]ą'c y K S c i e n c e y K N h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e m a g . o r g / yX; H,]ą'c 9 9 y K S c i e n c e y K N h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e m a g . o r g / yX; H,]ą'c B B y K S c i e n c e y K N h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e m a g . o r g / yX; H,]ą'c t t y K S c i e n c e y K N h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e m a g . o r g / yX; H,]ą'c y K S c i e n c e y K N h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e m a g . o r g / yX; H,]ą'c y K S c i e n c e y K N h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e m a g . o r g / yX; H,]ą'c y K S c i e n c e y K N h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e m a g . o r g / yX; H,]ą'c !! y K S c i e n c e y K N h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e m a g . o r g / yX; H,]ą'c ,, y K S c i e n c e y K N h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e m a g . o r g / yX; H,]ą'c y K S c i e n c e y K N h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e m a g . o r g / yX; H,]ą'c y K S e d i m e n t a r y G e o l o g y y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 0 3 7 0 7 3 8 yX; H,]ą'c y K S e d i m e n t a r y G e o l o g y y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 0 3 7 0 7 3 8 yX; H,]ą'c y K S e d i m e n t a r y G e o l o g y y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 0 3 7 0 7 3 8 yX; H,]ą'c y K " S o u t h A f r i c a n J o u r n a l o f S c i e n c e y K F h t t p : / / w w w . s a j s . c o . z a / yX; H,]ą'c y K " S o u t h A f r i c a n J o u r n a l o f S c i e n c e y K F h t t p : / / w w w . s a j s . c o . z a / yX; H,]ą'c y K " S o u t h A f r i c a n J o u r n a l o f S c i e n c e y K F h t t p : / / w w w . s a j s . c o . z a / yX; H,]ą'c JJ y K " S o u t h A f r i c a n J o u r n a l o f S c i e n c e y K F h t t p : / / w w w . s a j s . c o . z a / yX; H,]ą'c y K W a t e r A i r a n d S o i l P o l l u t i o n y K p h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 3 4 4 / yX; H,]ą'c y K W a t e r A i r a n d S o i l P o l l u t i o n y K p h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 3 4 4 / yX; H,]ą'c y K W a t e r A i r a n d S o i l P o l l u t i o n y K p h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 3 4 4 / yX; H,]ą'c y K W a t e r b i r d s y K d h t t p : / / w w w . w a t e r b i r d s . o r g / j o u r n a l . h t m yX; H,]ą'c y K W a t e r b i r d s y K d h t t p : / / w w w . w a t e r b i r d s . o r g / j o u r n a l . h t m yX; H,]ą'c I I y K
W e t l a n d s y K h t t p : / / w w w . b i o o n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = g e t - a r c h i v e & i s s n = 0 2 7 7 - 5 2 1 2 yX; H,]ą'c y K
W e t l a n d s y K h t t p : / / w w w . b i o o n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = g e t - a r c h i v e & i s s n = 0 2 7 7 - 5 2 1 2 yX; H,]ą'c AA y K
W e t l a n d s y K h t t p : / / w w w . b i o o n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = g e t - a r c h i v e & i s s n = 0 2 7 7 - 5 2 1 2 yX; H,]ą'c 77 y K E s t u a r i e s y K P h t t p : / / w w w . e r f . o r g / j o u r n a l / yX; H,]ą'c ff y K E s t u a r i e s y K P h t t p : / / w w w . e r f . o r g / j o u r n a l / yX; H,]ą'c 11 y K E s t u a r i e s y K P h t t p : / / w w w . e r f . o r g / j o u r n a l / yX; H,]ą'c Sheet1g g \
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6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 6 4 5 6 9 1 J 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 6 4 5 6 9 1 J 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 6 4 5 6 9 1 J
6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 6 4 5 6 9 1 G 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 0 2 5 3 2 6 X G 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 0 2 5 3 2 6 X G 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 0 2 5 3 2 6 X C 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 0 2 5 3 2 2 7 C 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 0 2 5 3 2 2 7 C 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 0 2 5 3 2 2 7 C 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 0 2 5 3 2 2 7 C 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 0 2 5 3 2 2 7 C 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 0 2 5 3 2 2 7 C 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 0 2 5 3 2 2 7 C 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 0 2 5 3 2 2 7 C 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 0 2 5 3 2 2 7 t m 0 h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / m e p s / i n d e x . h t m l t m 0 h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / m e p s / i n d e x . h t m l t m 0 h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / m e p s / i n d e x . h t m l Y : h t t p : / / w w w 3 . i n t e r s c i e n c e . w i l e y . c o m / j o u r n a l / 1 1 8 4 9 4 4 9 6 / h o m e Y : h t t p : / / w w w 3 . i n t e r s c i e n c e . w i l e y . c o m / j o u r n a l / 1 1 8 4 9 4 4 9 6 / h o m e ! f h t t p : / / w w w . a g u . o r g / j o u r n a l s / j c / ! f h t t p : / / w w w . a g u . o r g / j o u r n a l s / j c / ! f h t t p : / / w w w . a g u . o r g / j o u r n a l s / j c / ! f h t t p : / / w w w . a g u . o r g / j o u r n a l s / j c / ! f h t t p : / / w w w . a g u . o r g / j o u r n a l s / j c / ՜. +,D ՜. +,T P X d l t |
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SLR Database 'SLR Database'!Print_Area Worksheets
Named Ranges 8 @ _PID_HLINKS A < J [ V 2 h t t p : / / c o n s e r v e o n l i n e . o r g / s c i e n t i f i c j o u r n a l s . h t m l - h t t p : / / a p p s . i s i k n o w l e d g e . c o m . j o u r n a l s . c o n s e r v e o n l i n e . o r g : 2 0 4 8 / U A _ G e n e r a l S e a r c h _ i n p u t . d o ? p r o d u c t = U A & s e a r c h _ m o d e = G e n e r a l S e a r c h & S I D = 2 D h 2 O g i I J L 5 A 5 g I H G j 2 & p r e f e r e n c e s S a v e d = [ V 2 h t t p : / / c o n s e r v e o n l i n e . o r g / s c i e n t i f i c j o u r n a l s . h t m l - ! h t t p : / / a p p s . i s i k n o w l e d g e . c o m . j o u r n a l s . c o n s e r v e o n l i n e . o r g : 2 0 4 8 / U A _ G e n e r a l S e a r c h _ i n p u t . d o ? p r o d u c t = U A & s e a r c h _ m o d e = G e n e r a l S e a r c h & S I D = 2 D h 2 O g i I J L 5 A 5 g I H G j 2 & p r e f e r e n c e s S a v e d = - = 2 h t t p : / / w w w . e r f . o r g / j o u r n a l / - = 1 h t t p : / / w w w . e r f . o r g / j o u r n a l / - = 0 h t t p : / / w w w . e r f . o r g / j o u r n a l / > u / C h t t p : / / w w w . b i o o n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = g e t - a r c h i v e & i s s n = 0 2 7 7 - 5 2 1 2 > u . C h t t p : / / w w w . b i o o n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = g e t - a r c h i v e & i s s n = 0 2 7 7 - 5 2 1 2 > u - C h t t p : / / w w w . b i o o n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = g e t - a r c h i v e & i s s n = 0 2 7 7 - 5 2 1 2 J , & h t t p : / / w w w . w a t e r b i r d s . o r g / j o u r n a l . h t m J + & h t t p : / / w w w . w a t e r b i r d s . o r g / j o u r n a l . h t m y * , h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 3 4 4 / y ) , h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 3 4 4 / y ( , h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 3 4 4 / n & ' h t t p : / / w w w . s a j s . c o . z a / n & & h t t p : / / w w w . s a j s . c o . z a / n & % h t t p : / / w w w . s a j s . c o . z a / n & $ h t t p : / / w w w . s a j s . c o . z a / @ # 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 0 3 7 0 7 3 8 @ " 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 0 3 7 0 7 3 8 @ ! 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 0 3 7 0 7 3 8 7 ( h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e m a g . o r g / 7 ( h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e m a g . o r g / 7 ( h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e m a g . o r g / 7 ( h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e m a g . o r g / 7 ( h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e m a g . o r g / 7 ( h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e m a g . o r g / 7 ( h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e m a g . o r g / 7 ( h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e m a g . o r g / 7 ( h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e m a g . o r g / 7 ( h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e m a g . o r g / q r $ h t t p : / / w w w . p n a s . o r g / c o n t e n t / b y / y e a r q r $ h t t p : / / w w w . p n a s . o r g / c o n t e n t / b y / y e a r q r $ h t t p : / / w w w . p n a s . o r g / c o n t e n t / b y / y e a r 1 h t t p : / / j o u r n a l s . r o y a l s o c i e t y . o r g / c o n t e n t / 1 0 2 0 2 1 / 1 h t t p : / / j o u r n a l s . r o y a l s o c i e t y . o r g / c o n t e n t / 1 0 2 0 2 1 / 1 h t t p : / / j o u r n a l s . r o y a l s o c i e t y . o r g / c o n t e n t / 1 0 2 0 2 1 / 1 h t t p : / / j o u r n a l s . r o y a l s o c i e t y . o r g / c o n t e n t / 1 0 2 0 2 1 / J 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 6 4 5 6 9 ! f h t t p : / / w w w . a g u . o r g / j o u r n a l s / j c / 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l 6 h t t p : / / w w w . j c r o n l i n e . o r g / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l N 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 5 9 3 7 8 0 N 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 5 9 3 7 8 0 N 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 5 9 3 7 8 0 N 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 5 9 3 7 8 0 N 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 5 9 3 7 8 0 N 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 5 9 3 7 8 0 N 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 5 9 3 7 8 0 N 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 5 9 3 7 8 0 N 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 5 9 3 7 8 0 N 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 5 9 3 7 8 0 N 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 5 9 3 7 8 0 N 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 5 9 3 7 8 0 N 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 5 9 3 7 8 0 N 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 5 9 3 7 8 0 N 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 5 9 3 7 8 0 N 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 5 9 3 7 8 0 N 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 5 9 3 7 8 0 N 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 5 9 3 7 8 0 B 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 2 1 8 1 8 1 B 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 2 1 8 1 8 1 B 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 2 1 8 1 8 1 B 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 2 1 8 1 8 1 B 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 2 1 8 1 8 1 B 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 2 1 8 1 8 1 B 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 2 1 8 1 8 1 B 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 2 1 8 1 8 1 , i h t t p : / / w w w . a g u . o r g / j o u r n a l s / g l / , i h t t p : / / w w w . a g u . o r g / j o u r n a l s / g l / , i h t t p : / / w w w . a g u . o r g / j o u r n a l s / g l / , i h t t p : / / w w w . a g u . o r g / j o u r n a l s / g l / , i h t t p : / / w w w . a g u . o r g / j o u r n a l s / g l / , i h t t p : / / w w w . a g u . o r g / j o u r n a l s / g l / , i h t t p : / / w w w . a g u . o r g / j o u r n a l s / g l / , i h t t p : / / w w w . a g u . o r g / j o u r n a l s / g l / , i h t t p : / / w w w . a g u . o r g / j o u r n a l s / g l / , i h t t p : / / w w w . a g u . o r g / j o u r n a l s / g l / A 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 2 7 2 7 7 1 4 A 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 2 7 2 7 7 1 4 A 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 2 7 2 7 7 1 4 A 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 2 7 2 7 7 1 4 A 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 2 7 2 7 7 1 4 A 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 2 7 2 7 7 1 4 A 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 2 7 2 7 7 1 4 A 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 2 7 2 7 7 1 4 O 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 1 4 6 2 9 0 1 1 O 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 1 4 6 2 9 0 1 1 x ' , h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 2 8 7 8 / x ' , h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 2 8 7 8 / x ' , h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 2 8 7 8 / x ' , h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 2 8 7 8 / x ' , h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 2 8 7 8 / w > h t t p : / / j o u r n a l s . c a m b r i d g e . o r g / a c t i o n / d i s p l a y J o u r n a l ? j i d = E N C & b V o l u m e = y & s h o w C u r r e n t = n & s h o w D e c a d e = 2 0 0 0 & a r c h i v e C o n t e n t = & c u r r e n t C o n t e n t = & s h o w C u r r e n t S u b s c r i p t i o n P r i c e s = & s h o w A r c h i v e S u b s c r i p t i o n P r i c e s = & s h o w E B V S u b s c r i p t i o n P r i c e s = d e c a d e 2 0 0 0 w > h t t p : / / j o u r n a l s . c a m b r i d g e . o r g / a c t i o n / d i s p l a y J o u r n a l ? j i d = E N C & b V o l u m e = y & s h o w C u r r e n t = n & s h o w D e c a d e = 2 0 0 0 & a r c h i v e C o n t e n t = & c u r r e n t C o n t e n t = & s h o w C u r r e n t S u b s c r i p t i o n P r i c e s = & s h o w A r c h i v e S u b s c r i p t i o n P r i c e s = & s h o w E B V S u b s c r i p t i o n P r i c e s = d e c a d e 2 0 0 0 w > h t t p : / / j o u r n a l s . c a m b r i d g e . o r g / a c t i o n / d i s p l a y J o u r n a l ? j i d = E N C & b V o l u m e = y & s h o w C u r r e n t = n & s h o w D e c a d e = 2 0 0 0 & a r c h i v e C o n t e n t = & c u r r e n t C o n t e n t = & s h o w C u r r e n t S u b s c r i p t i o n P r i c e s = & s h o w A r c h i v e S u b s c r i p t i o n P r i c e s = & s h o w E B V S u b s c r i p t i o n P r i c e s = d e c a d e 2 0 0 0 w > h t t p : / / j o u r n a l s . c a m b r i d g e . o r g / a c t i o n / d i s p l a y J o u r n a l ? j i d = E N C & b V o l u m e = y & s h o w C u r r e n t = n & s h o w D e c a d e = 2 0 0 0 & a r c h i v e C o n t e n t = & c u r r e n t C o n t e n t = & s h o w C u r r e n t S u b s c r i p t i o n P r i c e s = & s h o w A r c h i v e S u b s c r i p t i o n P r i c e s = & s h o w E B V S u b s c r i p t i o n P r i c e s = d e c a d e 2 0 0 0 w > h t t p : / / j o u r n a l s . c a m b r i d g e . o r g / a c t i o n / d i s p l a y J o u r n a l ? j i d = E N C & b V o l u m e = y & s h o w C u r r e n t = n & s h o w D e c a d e = 2 0 0 0 & a r c h i v e C o n t e n t = & c u r r e n t C o n t e n t = & s h o w C u r r e n t S u b s c r i p t i o n P r i c e s = & s h o w A r c h i v e S u b s c r i p t i o n P r i c e s = & s h o w E B V S u b s c r i p t i o n P r i c e s = d e c a d e 2 0 0 0 { & , h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 6 3 / { & , h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 6 3 / { & , h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 6 3 / { & , h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 6 3 / v 3 h t t p : / / e a u . s a g e p u b . c o m / v 3 h t t p : / / e a u . s a g e p u b . c o m / v 3 h t t p : / / e a u . s a g e p u b . c o m / v 3 h t t p : / / e a u . s a g e p u b . c o m / v 3 h t t p : / / e a u . s a g e p u b . c o m / : k < h t t p : / / w w w . e n v p l a n . c o m / c o n t e n t s . c g i ? j o u r n a l = A & i s s u e = c u r r e n t : k ~ < h t t p : / / w w w . e n v p l a n . c o m / c o n t e n t s . c g i ? j o u r n a l = A & i s s u e = c u r r e n t : k } < h t t p : / / w w w . e n v p l a n . c o m / c o n t e n t s . c g i ? j o u r n a l = A & i s s u e = c u r r e n t : k | < h t t p : / / w w w . e n v p l a n . c o m / c o n t e n t s . c g i ? j o u r n a l = A & i s s u e = c u r r e n t w # { 4 h t t p : / / w w w . e s a p u b s . o r g / e s a p u b s / j o u r n a l s / e c o l o g y . h t m w # z 4 h t t p : / / w w w . e s a p u b s . o r g / e s a p u b s / j o u r n a l s / e c o l o g y . h t m w # y 4 h t t p : / / w w w . e s a p u b s . o r g / e s a p u b s / j o u r n a l s / e c o l o g y . h t m J x 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 2 1 8 0 0 9 J w 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 2 1 8 0 0 9 J v 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 2 1 8 0 0 9 J u 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 2 1 8 0 0 9 J t 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 2 1 8 0 0 9 L s 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 0 1 2 8 2 5 2 L r 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 0 1 2 8 2 5 2 f m q < h t t p : / / w w w . w i l e y . c o m / W i l e y C D A / W i l e y T i t l e / p r o d u c t C d - E S P . h t m l f m p < h t t p : / / w w w . w i l e y . c o m / W i l e y C D A / W i l e y T i t l e / p r o d u c t C d - E S P . h t m l f m o < h t t p : / / w w w . w i l e y . c o m / W i l e y C D A / W i l e y T i t l e / p r o d u c t C d - E S P . h t m l S n . h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 0 7 2 2 - 4 0 2 8 S m . h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 0 7 2 2 - 4 0 2 8 l r l L h t t p : / / w w w 3 . i n t e r s c i e n c e . w i l e y . c o m / j o u r n a l / 1 1 8 4 8 7 6 3 6 / h o m e ? C R E T R Y = 1 & S R E T R Y = 0 l r k L h t t p : / / w w w 3 . i n t e r s c i e n c e . w i l e y . c o m / j o u r n a l / 1 1 8 4 8 7 6 3 6 / h o m e ? C R E T R Y = 1 & S R E T R Y = 0 l r j L h t t p : / / w w w 3 . i n t e r s c i e n c e . w i l e y . c o m / j o u r n a l / 1 1 8 4 8 7 6 3 6 / h o m e ? C R E T R Y = 1 & S R E T R Y = 0 C V i & h t t p : / / d e p t s . w a s h i n g t o n . e d u / c o a s t j n l / C V h & h t t p : / / d e p t s . w a s h i n g t o n . e d u / c o a s t j n l / C V g & h t t p : / / d e p t s . w a s h i n g t o n . e d u / c o a s t j n l / C V f & h t t p : / / d e p t s . w a s h i n g t o n . e d u / c o a s t j n l / C V e & h t t p : / / d e p t s . w a s h i n g t o n . e d u / c o a s t j n l / C V d & h t t p : / / d e p t s . w a s h i n g t o n . e d u / c o a s t j n l / C V c & h t t p : / / d e p t s . w a s h i n g t o n . e d u / c o a s t j n l / C V b & h t t p : / / d e p t s . w a s h i n g t o n . e d u / c o a s t j n l / C V a & h t t p : / / d e p t s . w a s h i n g t o n . e d u / c o a s t j n l / y " ` , h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / y " _ , h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / y " ^ , h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / y " ] , h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / y " \ , h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / y " [ , h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / y " Z , h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / y " Y , h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / y " X , h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / y " W , h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / y " V , h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / y " U , h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / y " T , h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / y " S , h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / y " R , h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / y " Q , h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / y " P , h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / y " O , h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / y " N , h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / y " M , h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / y " L , h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / y " K , h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / y " J , h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 0 2 4 7 / t y I $ h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / c r / t y H $ h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / c r / t y G $ h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / c r / t y F $ h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / c r / t y E $ h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / c r / t y D $ h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / c r / t y C $ h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / c r / t y B $ h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / c r / t y A $ h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / c r / t y @ $ h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / c r / t y ? $ h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / c r / t y > $ h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / c r / t y = $ h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / c r / t y < $ h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / c r / t y ; $ h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / c r / t y : $ h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / c r / t y 9 $ h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / c r / t y 8 $ h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / j o u r n a l s / c r /
M 7 & h t t p : / / w w w . e a r t h s c a n . c o . u k / ? t a b i d = 4 8 0
M 6 & h t t p : / / w w w . e a r t h s c a n . c o . u k / ? t a b i d = 4 8 0
M 5 & h t t p : / / w w w . e a r t h s c a n . c o . u k / ? t a b i d = 4 8 0 b # 4 / h t t p : / / a r j o u r n a l s . a n n u a l r e v i e w s . o r g / l o i / e n e r g y b # 3 / h t t p : / / a r j o u r n a l s . a n n u a l r e v i e w s . o r g / l o i / e n e r g y V w 2 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e ? _ o b = P u b l i c a t i o n U R L & _ c d i = 1 8 0 4 7 & _ a u t h = y & _ a c c t = C 0 0 0 0 5 0 2 2 1 & _ v e r s i o n = 1 & _ u s e r i d = 1 0 & _ p u b T y p e = B S & m d 5 = 9 0 b 3 8 6 f 0 c 2 c 8 5 1 d 9 b a 1 9 0 c 4 e 6 4 a 8 6 8 0 7 V w 1 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e ? _ o b = P u b l i c a t i o n U R L & _ c d i = 1 8 0 4 7 & _ a u t h = y & _ a c c t = C 0 0 0 0 5 0 2 2 1 & _ v e r s i o n = 1 & _ u s e r i d = 1 0 & _ p u b T y p e = B S & m d 5 = 9 0 b 3 8 6 f 0 c 2 c 8 5 1 d 9 b a 1 9 0 c 4 e 6 4 a 8 6 8 0 7 0
A b s t r a c t s ! A 1 F ^ / 5 h t t p : / / w w w . p n a s . o r g / c o n t e n t / 1 0 2 / 8 / 2 8 2 6 . f u l l . p d f + h t m l X B . 5 h t t p : / / w w w . p n a s . o r g / c o n t e n t / 9 9 / 1 0 / 6 5 5 0 . f u l l . p d f + h t m l f + - G h t t p : / / j o u r n a l s . r o y a l s o c i e t y . o r g / c o n t e n t / 2 p e d 7 9 1 d 4 0 d 5 t k a 7 / f u l l t e x t . p d f , # , G h t t p : / / j o u r n a l s . r o y a l s o c i e t y . o r g / c o n t e n t / p 3 4 2 2 m 7 7 1 5 7 6 j 1 1 3 / f u l l t e x t . p d f w ~ + G h t t p : / / j o u r n a l s . r o y a l s o c i e t y . o r g / c o n t e n t / 0 2 n 2 r 8 7 8 l 9 4 8 4 2 6 2 / f u l l t e x t . p d f / = * G h t t p : / / j o u r n a l s . r o y a l s o c i e t y . o r g / c o n t e n t / 1 0 u 4 3 6 7 2 2 1 2 4 6 2 t n / f u l l t e x t . p d f 0 x ) G h t t p : / / j o u r n a l s . r o y a l s o c i e t y . o r g / c o n t e n t / 8 0 6 4 p 7 l 4 h 0 2 7 7 6 8 p / f u l l t e x t . p d f L @ ( h t t p : / / w w w . b o a l t . o r g / e l q / u : ' / h t t p : / / w w w . i a s . a c . i n / c u r r s c i / f e b 1 0 2 0 0 6 / 3 7 6 . p d f ^ & h t t p : / / w w w . i a s . a c . i n / c u r r s c i / ? { % 3 h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / a r t i c l e s / c r / 1 1 / c 0 1 1 p 0 6 5 . p d f 0 p $ 3 h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / a r t i c l e s / c r / 1 8 / c 0 1 8 p 2 0 5 . p d f # 2 h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / a r t i c l e s / c r / 9 / c 0 0 9 p 0 7 3 . p d f ? | " 3 h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / a r t i c l e s / c r / 1 4 / c 0 1 4 p 2 3 5 . p d f 1 { ! 3 h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / a r t i c l e s / c r / 1 1 / c 0 1 1 p 0 8 5 . p d f 9 { 3 h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / a r t i c l e s / c r / 1 1 / c 0 1 1 p 0 0 5 . p d f = p 3 h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / a r t i c l e s / c r / 1 4 / c 0 1 4 p 2 1 9 . p d f 4 | 7 h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / a r t i c l e s / c r 2 0 0 2 / 1 9 / c 0 1 9 p 1 7 9 . p d f 2 h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / a r t i c l e s / c r / 6 / c 0 0 6 p 1 9 3 . p d f 2 h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / a r t i c l e s / c r / 6 / c 0 0 6 p 1 7 9 . p d f
2 h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / a r t i c l e s / c r / 6 / c 0 0 6 p 1 6 5 . p d f 3 z 3 h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / a r t i c l e s / c r / 1 2 / c 0 1 2 p 0 9 7 . p d f 9 { 3 h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / a r t i c l e s / c r / 1 2 / c 0 1 2 p 1 3 7 . p d f 8 u 3 h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / a r t i c l e s / c r / 1 2 / c 0 1 2 p 1 2 9 . p d f o Y 2 h t t p : / / w w w . a i b s . o r g / b i o s c i e n c e / c u r r e n t _ i s s u e . h t m l 3 k D h t t p : / / w w w . b l a c k w e l l p u b l i s h i n g . c o m / j o u r n a l . a s p ? r e f = 0 9 5 0 - 0 9 1 X & s i t e = 1 T : h t t p : / / w w w 3 . i n t e r s c i e n c e . w i l e y . c o m / j o u r n a l / 1 1 7 9 8 0 2 2 3 / h o m e D 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 3 0 4 3 7 7 0 : < 8 h t t p : / / w w w . j o u r n a l s . u c h i c a g o . e d u / d o i / p d f / 1 0 . 1 0 8 6 / 4 2 6 6 0 2 y < 0 h t t p : / / w w w . j o u r n a l s . u c h i c a g o . e d u / t o c / a n / c u r r e n t ^ P > h t t p : / / a m b i o . a l l e n p r e s s . c o m / p e r l s e r v / ? r e q u e s t = i n d e x - h t m l & c t = 1 Q . h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 0 2 5 6 - 1 5 3 0 ^ 6 h t t p : / / w w w . p n a s . o r g / c o n t e n t / 9 8 / 2 5 / 1 4 2 1 8 . f u l l . p d f + h t m l R % h t t p : / / w w w . c l a r k u . e d u / E C O N G E O G R A P H Y / L
6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 0 1 2 8 2 5 2 T B h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 5 v r 6 v p j 0 6 v r d 3 5 c l / f u l l t e x t . p d f
B h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / y m c 3 l r v 7 c q x c l 3 m l / f u l l t e x t . p d f V
: h t t p : / / w w w 3 . i n t e r s c i e n c e . w i l e y . c o m / j o u r n a l / 1 1 8 5 3 6 1 3 6 / h o m e ; { 3 h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / a r t i c l e s / c r / 1 2 / c 0 1 2 p 1 1 7 . p d f : u 3 h t t p : / / w w w . i n t - r e s . c o m / a r t i c l e s / c r / 1 2 / c 0 1 2 p 1 0 9 . p d f P : h t t p : / / w w w 3 . i n t e r s c i e n c e . w i l e y . c o m / j o u r n a l / 1 1 8 5 0 1 4 6 6 / h o m e | 0 0 h t t p : / / a r j o u r n a l s . a n n u a l r e v i e w s . o r g / l o i / e c o l s y s U : h t t p : / / a r j o u r n a l s . a n n u a l r e v i e w s . o r g / l o i / e a r t h ? c o o k i e S e t = 1 | : 0 h t t p : / / w w w . a a g . o r g / P u b l i c a t i o n s / a n n a l s w e b 1 . h t m l # < h t t p : / / w w w . a m j b o t . o r g / : h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e - d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / b o o k s e r i e s / 0 0 6 5 2 5 0 4 B 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e d i r e c t . c o m / s c i e n c e / j o u r n a l / 0 9 2 1 8 1 8 1 P B h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / a 6 w 9 a 5 q 9 9 3 v p p g r b / f u l l t e x t . p d f
F! Microsoft Office Excel Worksheet Biff8 Excel.Sheet.8 9q