ConserveOnline - Using decision trees to model fish distributions in Missouri, by Scott Sowa

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Using decision trees to model fish distributions in Missouri, by Scott Sowa

By Web Admin on 6/5/2007 | Keyword(s): Session ii: existing approaches

Gap analysis is a conservation assessment methodology that compares the distribution of several elements of biological diversity with areas managed primarily for native species and natural ecosystems. To accomplish this task, it is necessary that GAP develop detailed and relatively high-confidence predicted distribution maps of individual animal species for comparison with maps of land stewardship and management status. To construct the predictive distribution maps for the Missouri Aquatic GAP Project we compiled nearly 7,000 collection records for fish, mussels, and crayfish and spatially linked these records to the 12-digit USGS/NRCS Hydrologic Unit coverage for Missouri and the 1:100,000 National Hydrography Dataset attributed with several variables known to be associated with the distribution and abundance of riverine biota. Range maps were produced for each of the 315 species, sent out for professional review, and modified as needed. We then used Decision Tree Analyses to construct predictive distribution models for each species. Ultimately, a total of 571 models were developed to construct reach-specific predictive distribution maps for the 315 species. The resulting maps were merged into a single hyperdistribution which is related to a database containing information on the conservation status, ecological character, and endemism level of each species. This presentation will cover some of the major challenges to predicting species distributions in riverine environments and future directions for improving predictive models for riverine biota.

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