Reflections on Hurricane Irene

Retreat To High Ground

Hurricane Danger What if Irene had been a major hurricane?

Hartford Courant, August 30, 2011

In boxing terms, Hurricane Irene was a welterweight, compared to a heavyweight such as the Great 1938 Hurricane. Indeed, Irene was a tropical storm by the time it reached most of Connecticut, yet it still wreaked havoc with property along the shore. Dozens of homes were damaged or destroyed in East Haven alone, some collapsing into the roaring surf.

What if this had been a Category III storm, with 125-140 mph winds and a surge of more than 25 feet, as in 1938? There would have been catastrophic destruction. That it didn't happen doesn't mean it couldn't have. It could have, and most likely — almost certainly — will.

So what is Connecticut going to do to prepare for this likely cataclysm? Probably nothing, just rebuild what was there. Thanks to meek local zoning and the seemingly bottomless National Flood Insurance Program, most owners will hum "Good Night, Irene" and put those houses or cottages back up.

Narrative from Hartford Courant - Full editorial here:

http://www.courant.com/news/opinion/editorials/hc-ed-irene-aftermath-20110830,0,5109545.story

Don't Rebuild

Miles of cottages and homes were built cheek-by-jowl along Connecticut's beachfront before there was a full appreciation of hurricane danger. But thanks largely to the beneficence of Uncle Sam, when these houses get knocked down, they are often rebuilt.

The problem is that the federal flood insurance program, which was supposed to be self-sustaining when created in 1968, is reportedly $18 billion in debt, much of it from Hurricane Katrina. Taxpayers cannot keep pouring money into houses in high-risk areas. One and done.

Second, as a matter of safety and good land use, houses shouldn't be built in highly flood-prone areas. Many of these areas should be cleared and maintained as buffers for land further away from the coast (one of the many reasons to preserve salt marshes). In addition, houses that are being smashed up by a storm become a danger to other properties.

Also, some houses that weren't in danger in years past are now or soon will be, because the sea level is rising. Whatever you might think is the cause, sea level is rising faster along the U.S. East Coast than it has for 2,000 years due to rising temperatures, going from 2.1 millimeters a year a century ago to an annual 3.2 millimeters today, according to a study reported in June in Scientific American. Many scientists think the rise in sea level is causing more violent storms.

.... full article available at link above.