Bibliography - Freshwater

A 39-winter (1963-2001) record of annual maximum ice concentration (AMIC), the maximum fraction of lake surface area covered by ice each year, is analyzed for each Great Lake. Lake Erie has the largest median AMIC (94%) followed by Lakes Superior (80%), Huron (63%), Michigan (33%), and Ontario (21%). The frequency distribution of AMICs is negatively skewed for Lakes Superior and Erie and positively skewed for Lakes Michigan and Ontario. Temporal and spatial patterns of typical and extreme AMICs is presented within the context of long-term average air temperatures and lake bathymetry. The variation of spatially averaged ice concentration with discrete depth ranges are discussed for each lake for the upper and lower end of the typical range of AMIC values. In general, ice concentration decreases with increasing depth ranges for a given winter. A decrease in the gradient of ice concentration with depths was also observed with an increase in the AMIC from winter 1983 to winter 1984. A temporal trend in the AMICs supports the hypothesis of three ice cover regimes over the past 39 winters. Approximately 44% of the highest quartile (10 highest) AMICs for the Great Lakes occurred during the 6-winter period: 1977-1982 providing evidence of a higher ice cover regime during this period relative to the 14 winters before them (1963- 1976) and the 19 winters after them (1983-2001). Winter 1998 established new low AMIC extremes, and the AMIC averaged over the 1998-2001 winters is the lowest for the period of record on four of the five Great Lakes. These recent trends taken together are noteworthy as they may be harbingers of a period of even lower AMICs in the 21st Century.

Lake Superior summer (July-September) surface water temperatures have increased approximately 2.5°C over the interval 1979-2006, equivalent to a rate of (11 &plusmin; 6) x 10-2°C yr-1, significantly in excess of regional atmospheric warming. This discrepancy is caused by declining winter ice cover, which is causing the onset of the positively stratified season to occur earlier at a rate of roughly a half day per year. An earlier start of the stratified season significantly increases the period over which the lake warms during the summer months, leading to a stronger trend in mean summer temperatures than would be expected from changes in summer air temperature alone.

Future changes to climate in the Great Lakes may have important consequences for fisheries. Evidence suggests that Great Lakes air and water temperatures have risen and the duration of ice cover has lessened during the past century. Global circulation models (GCMs) suggest future warming and increases in precipitation in the region. We present new evidence that water temperatures have risen in Lake Erie, particularly during summer and winter in the period 1965-2000. GCM forecasts coupled with physical models suggest lower annual runoff, less ice cover, and lower lake levels in the future, but the certainty of these forecasts is low. Assessment of the likely effects of climate change on fish stocks will require an integrative approach that considers several components of habitat rather than water temperature alone. We recommend using mechanistic models that couple habitat conditions to population demographics to explore integrated effects of climate-caused habitat change and illustrate this approach with a model for Lake Erie walleye (Sander vitreum). We show that the combined effect on walleye populations of plausible changes in temperature, river hydrology, lake levels, and light penetration can be quite different from that which would be expected based on consideration of only a single factor.

Six high-resolution climatic reconstructions, based on diatom analyses from lake sediment cores from the northern prairies of North America, show that shifts in drought conditions on decadal through multicentennial scales have prevailed in this region for at least the last two millennia. The predominant broad-scale pattern seen at all sites is a major shift in moisture regimes from wet to dry, or vice versa (depending on location), that occurred after a period of relative stability. These large-scale shifts at the different sites exhibit spatial coherence at regional scales. The three Canadian sites record this abrupt shift between anno Domini 500 and 800, and subsequently conditions become increasingly variable. All three U.S. sites underwent a pronounced change, but the timing of this change is between anno Domini 1000 and 1300, thus later than in all of the Canadian sites. The mechanisms behind these patterns are poorly understood, but they are likely related to changes in the shape and location of the jet stream and associated storm tracks. If the patterns seen at these sites are representative of the region, this observed pattern can have huge implications for future water availability in this region.

This study is part of an assessment of potential effects of climate change on the St. Lawrence Great Lakes. Its purpose is to investigate potential future lake mixing patterns and primary production. Nested physical and biological models were applied to seasonal mixed layer depth, heat content, primary productivity, and to algal biomass measured as particulate chlorophyll. Two independent second generation General Circulation Models provided scenarios for future conditions of cloud cover, air temperature, humidity, and winds. The climate variables were used to force heat balance and surface mixed layer models for Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie, and Ontario. Physical models of heat balance and mixed layer dynamics were coupled with a model of primary biological production and growth of phytoplankton. Simulated climate conditions were for time periods centered at 1975, 2030, 2050, and 2090. Climate projections from both GCMs lead to elevated mixed layer and bottom temperatures in all five lakes by as much as 5°C during this century. Both GCMs point to longer duration of thermal stratification in the five lakes, stronger stability of stratification, and deeper daily mixing depths during peak thermal stratification. For Lake Erie, no striking differences in algal biomass are likely according to climate projections of either model, but for the other lakes, either the duration of nutrient limitation of algal growth is projected to increase, or light limitation caused by deeper mixing is projected to limit the development of algal biomass.

Water bodies, ancestral to the present lakes including Lake Huron, first appeared in the southern Great Lakes basin about 15,500 14C years (18,800 cal years) BP during the oscillatory northward retreat of the last (Laurentide) ice sheet from its maximum position south of the Great Lakes watershed. Glacial lakes, impounded by a retreating ice margin on their northern shores, were continuously present after 13,000 14C (15,340 cal) BP for 3000 14C (3900 cal) years. Drainage routings varied in time through the Erie and Michigan basins to the Mississippi River system, a probable source for colonizing aquatic organisms, then to the Ontario basin, and finally northeastward to the Ottawa River valley via the isostatically-depressed North Bay outlet by 10,000 14C (11,470 cal) BP. Water levels were generally low between 10,000 and 7500 14C (11,470 and 8300 cal) BP and may have risen several tens of metres for short periods due to overflow of meltwater from upstream subglacial reservoirs or from glacial lakes impounded by residual ice in the Hudson Bay watershed. About 8000 14C (8890 cal) BP glacial runoff bypassed the Great Lakes, and Huron basin waters descended into hydrologic closure under the influence of the early Holocene dry climate. With increasing precipitation and water supply about 7500 14C (8300 cal) BP the Huron water body again overflowed its North Bay outlet. Differential isostatic uplift (fastest to the north-northeast) raised this outlet and lake level relative to the rest of the basin. The lake finally overflowed southern outlets at Chicago and Port Huron-Sarnia by 5000 14C (5760 cal) BP (during the Nipissing highstand). Enhanced erosion of the latter outlet and continued differential uplift of the basin led to the present configuration of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.

The results of general circulation model predictions of the effects of climate change from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (model CGCM1) and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office's Hadley Centre (model HadCM2) have been used to derive potential impacts on the water resources of the Great Lakes basin. These impacts can influence the levels of the Great Lakes and the volumes of channel flow among them, thus affecting their value for interests such as riparians, shippers, recreational boaters, and natural ecosystems. On one hand, a hydrological modeling suite using input data from the CGCM1 predicts large drops in lake levels, up to a maximum of 1.38 m on Lakes Michigan and Huron by 2090. This is due to a combination of a decrease in precipitation and an increase in air temperature that leads to an increase in evaporation. On the other hand, using input from HadCM2, rises in lake levels are predicted, up to a maximum of 0.35 m on Lakes Michigan and Huron by 2090, due to increased precipitation and a reduced increase in air temperature. An interest satisfaction model shows sharp decreases in the satisfaction of the interests of commercial navigation, recreational boating, riparians, and hydropower due to lake level decreases. Most interest satisfaction scores are also reduced by lake level increases. Drastic reductions in ice cover also result from the temperature increases such that under the CGCM1 predictions, most of Lake Erie has 96% of its winters ice-free by 2090. Assessment is also made of impacts on the groundwater-dependent region of Lansing, Michigan.

Recent research that couples climate change scenarios based on general circulation models with Great Lakes hydrologic models has indicated that average water levels are projected to decline in the future. This paper outlines a methodology to assess the potential impact of declining water levels on Great Lakes waterfront communities, using the Lake Huron shoreline at Goderich, Ontario, Canada, as an example. The methodology utilizes a geographic information system to combine topographic and bathymetric datasets. A digital elevation surface is used to model projected shoreline change for 2050 using water level scenarios. An arbitrary scenario, based on a 1 m decline from February 2001 lake levels, is also modelled. By creating a series of shoreline scenarios, a range of impact and cost scenarios are generated for the Goderich Harbor and adjacent marinas. Additional harbour and marina dredging could cost as much as CDN $7.6 million. Lake freighters may experience a 30% loss in vessel capacity. The methodology is used to provide initial estimates of the potential impacts of climate change that can be readily updated as more robust climate change scenarios become available and is adaptable for use in other Great Lakes coastal communities.

Shifts in climate regime have provoked substantial trophic- and species-dependent changes within ecosystems. With growing concerns of present global warming, we examined potential lake ecosystem responses, natural hierarchy responses (i.e. immediate responses at lower system levels as opposed to delayed responses at higher system levels), and possible shifts among abiotic (physics, nutrients) and biotic (phytoplankton, zooplankton) system components. Specifically, we analyzed decadal data collected from Müggelsee, a lake in Berlin, Germany, for climate-induced abiotic and biotic changes, their timing and type, and classified them as abrupt permanent, gradual permanent, abrupt temporary, or monotonic. We further categorized variable changes as a function of system hierarchy, including lake physics (ice, temperature, stratification), nutrients (phosphorus, nitrogen, silicate), plankton, and levels of integration (i.e. species, taxonomic groups, and total plankton). Contrary to current theory, data suggest abrupt responses did not occur in a hierarchy-dependent manner, nor was a clear pattern observed among functional system-based categories. Abrupt permanent changes were the most prominent response pattern observed, suggesting they may be driven by large-scale climatic oscillations and by surpassed thresholds, as noted in previous case studies. Gradual changes coincided with affected abiotic parameters spanning an expansive time range; for example, climatic effects in spring preceded changes in nutrient limitation. Variables displaying no long-term changes pointed to compensation processes caused by, e.g., simultaneously acting forces of warming trends and climate-independent changes in trophic state. Nevertheless, the complexity of response patterns at the single system level manifested clear chronological regime shifts in abiotic and biotic parameters in spring and, to a lesser extent, in summer. With regard to projected global warming, the majority of currently unaffected system levels may face impending thermal thresholds, achievement of which would result in an accelerated shift in ecosystem state.

Sensitivities of river basins in the Sierra Nevada of California to historical and future climate variations and changes are analyzed by simulating daily streamflow and water-balance responses to simulated climate variations over a continuous 200-year period. The coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-land Parallel Climate Model provides the simulated climate histories, and existing hydrologic models of the Merced, Carson, and American Rivers are used to simulate the basin responses. The historical simulations yield stationary climate and hydrologic variations through the first part of the 20th Century until about 1975, when temperatures begin to warm noticeably and when snowmelt and streamflow peaks begin to occur progressively earlier within the seasonal cycle. A future climate simulated with business-as-usual increases in greenhouse-gas and aerosol radiative forcings continues those recent trends through the 21st Century with an attendant +2.5°C warming and a hastening of snowmelt and streamflow within the seasonal cycle by almost a month. In contrast, a control simulation in which radiative forcings are held constant at 1995 levels for the 50 years following 1995, yields climate and streamflow-timing conditions much like the 1980s and 1990s throughout its duration. Long-term average totals of streamflow and other hydrologic fluxes remain similar to the historical mean in all three simulations. The various projected trends in the business-as-usual simulations become readily visible above simulated natural climatic and hydrologic variability by about 2020.

Analysis of historical streamflow trends and their relationship to landscape characteristics is essential for understanding geographic differences in runoff within the Great Lakes basin and for distinguishing temporal trends from temporal variance. Factor analysis of streamflow records (1956-1988) from 32 US Geological Survey gauging stations within the Great Lakes basin revealed distinct spatio-temporal patterns of stream runoff within five different regions of the basin. Streams represented by the first annual factor occurred in southern Wisconsin and the lower peninsula of Michigan, and exhibited a linear increase in mean annual streamflow over the 33 year period caused by increased autumn and winter runoff. The second annual factor represented streams in New York and eastern Ohio, which exhibited sharply increased autumn discharge during the 1970s and 1980s. The remaining three annual factors distinguished groups of streams in western Ohio, Minnesota, and the upper peninsula of Michigan with differing annual and seasonal flow patterns but no consistent trends in annual flow. Factor analysis of monthly flow expressed as a proportion of annual flow identified three seasonal proportion factors that were temporally distinct but geographically dispersed. Annual yield (annual streamflow per unit watershed area) was greatest from watersheds with greater topographic relief and forest cover, and February yield was greatest from small, lower elevation watersheds having a small proportion of wetland area. Understanding past spatio-temporal patterns of streamflow variability within the US Great Lakes basin and their relationship to landscape properties provides a basis for evaluating future change.

The high demand for water, the recent multiyear drought (1999-2007), and projections of global warming have raised questions about the long-term sustainability of water supply in the southwestern United States. In this study, the potential effects of specific levels of atmospheric warming on water-year streamflow in the Colorado River basin are evaluated using a water-balance model, and the results are analyzed within the context of a multi-century tree-ring reconstruction (1490-1998) of streamflow for the basin. The results indicate that if future warming occurs in the basin and is not accompanied by increased precipitation, then the basin is likely to experience periods of water supply shortages more severe than those inferred from the long-term historical tree-ring reconstruction. Furthermore, the modeling results suggest that future warming would increase the likelihood of failure to meet the water allocation requirements of the Colorado River Compact.

Updated proxy reconstructions of water year (October-September) streamflow for four key gauges in the Upper Colorado River Basin were generated using an expanded tree ring network and longer calibration records than in previous efforts. Reconstructed gauges include the Green River at Green River, Utah; Colorado near Cisco, Utah; San Juan near Bluff, Utah; and Colorado at Lees Ferry, Arizona. The reconstructions explain 72-81% of the variance in the gauge records, and results are robust across several reconstruction approaches. Time series plots as well as results of cross-spectral analysis indicate strong spatial coherence in runoff variations across the subbasins. The Lees Ferry reconstruction suggests a higher long-term mean than previous reconstructions but strongly supports earlier findings that Colorado River allocations were based on one of the wettest periods in the past 5 centuries and that droughts more severe than any 20th to 21st century event occurred in the past.

A general understanding of how aquatic vegetation responds to water-level fluctuations is needed to guide restoration of Great Lakes coastal wetlands because inter-annual and seasonal variations often confound effects of costly remedial actions. In 1997, common carp (Cyprinus carpio) was removed from Cootes Paradise Marsh (L. Ontario) to reduce sediment resuspension and bioturbation, and thus regenerate marsh plants that had declined dramatically since the 1930s. Data from 1934 to 1993 were re-assembled from the literature to relate percentage cover of emergent vegetation to mean summer water level. A non-linear regression equation explained close to 90% of the variation compared with 80% for a non-linear equation, and this trend was confirmed for the dominant species, Typha latifolia. A modest recovery of emergent vegetation in 1999 following carp exclusion could have been predicted from declining water level alone, without invoking any effects of the biomanipulation. An unusually cool spring in 1997 delayed the migration of spawning planktivores into the marsh. This resulted in a grazer-mediated clear-water phase that coincided with a resurgence of the submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) community in 1997, which declined again in 1999 when low water levels occurred. Even though decrease in water level was significantly related to increased suspended solids and greater light attenuation, light conditions appeared to have been adequate in marsh embayments to support SAV growth, according to a published relationship between maximum depth of SAV colonization and light extinction coefficient. I suggest that wave disturbance and propagule burial associated with shallow water depths may have been the main reasons for the decline of the SAV in 1999 and 2000.

The prairie pothole region (PPR) lies in the heart of North America and contains millions of glacially formed, depressional wetlands embedded in a landscape matrix of natural grassland and agriculture. These wetlands provide valuable ecosystem services and produce 50% to 80% of the continent's ducks. We explored the broad spatial and temporal patterns across the PPR between climate and wetland water levels and vegetation by applying a wetland simulation model (WETSIM) to 18 stations with 95-year weather records. Simulations suggest that the most productive habitat for breeding waterfowl would shift under a drier climate from the center of the PPR (the Dakotas and southeastern Saskatchewan) to the wetter eastern and northern fringes, areas currently less productive or where most wetlands have been drained. Unless these wetlands are protected and restored, there is little insurance for waterfowl against future climate warming. WETSIM can assist wetland managers in allocating restoration dollars in an uncertain climate future.

Many Great Lakes coastal wetlands that remain today have been heavily fragmented by anthropogenic activities. The rate of fragmentation tends to increase during periods of low lake levels, especially in areas of low-gradient bathymetry where wetland area expands substantially and prompts the desire to dredge channels and groom shorelines. We sampled fish and invertebrates, using fyke nets and dipnets respectively, from wetland fragments paired with either areas where wetland vegetation was mowed or removed completely. Our concurrent studies showed that removal of vegetation by beach grooming and channel dredging created conduits for pelagic water to infiltrate the marsh and disrupt the ambient chemical/physical conditions. Alterations to both fish and macroinvertebrate communities were also evident where a significant amount of vegetation was removed. However, where only enough vegetation was removed to allow for boat access, impacts on fish communities were generally non-detectable. Mowing seemed to impact fish, but not invertebrates. Our data suggest that wetland fragmentation may have substantial and long lasting effects on wetland biota, but the magnitude of the impact is likely associated with the area of vegetation removed coupled with the potential for pelagic water to penetrate remaining fragments.

The diversity and resultant habitat value of wetland plant communities in the Laurentian Great Lakes are dependent on water-level fluctuations of varying frequency and amplitude. Conceptual models have described the response of vegetation to alternating high and low lake levels, but few quantitative studies have documented the changes that occur. In response to recent concerns over shoreline management activities during an ongoing period of low lake levels in lakes Superior, Michigan, and Huron that began in 1999, we analyzed a quantitative data set from Saginaw Bay of Lake Huron collected from 1988 to 1993 during a previous lake-level decline to provide the needed information on vegetation responses. Transects were established that followed topographic contours with water-level histories that differed across a six-year period, ranging from barely flooded to dewatered for varying numbers of years to never dewatered. Percent cover data from randomly placed quadrats along those transects were analyzed to assess floristic changes over time, document development of distinct plant assemblages, and relate the results to lake-level changes. Ordinations showed that plant assemblages sorted out by transects that reflect differing water-level histories. Distinction of assemblages was maintained for at least three years, although the composition and positioning of those assemblages changed as lake levels changed. We present a model that uses orthogonal axes to plot transects by years out of water against distance above water and sorted those transects in a manner that matched ordination results. The model suggests that vegetation response following dewatering is dependent on both position along the water level/soil moisture gradient and length of time since dewatering. This study provided quantitative evidence that lake-level fluctuations drive vegetative change in Great Lakes wetlands, and it may assist in making decisions regarding shoreline management in areas that historically supported wetlands.