Bibliography - Management

In recent years, rising prices for agricultural and energy commodities have heightened interest in the economic fundamentals governing these markets. This report presents bio-era's latest thinking on some of these fundamentals, and how they may be changing in unanticipated ways. Part of what we explore here concerns the interactions between the principal "long forces" affecting these markets, including the forces of climate change, the limits of conventional crude oil supply expansion, and the impacts of continued underlying growth in global populations and economies. Not surprisingly, we foresee these long forces acting in combination to place additional upward pressure on fuel and food prices, and we present a model for thinking about the dynamics at work in what we hope is a simple, but useful, way.

Simulations of potential vegetation distribution, natural fire frequency, carbon pools, and fluxes are presented for two DGVMs (Dynamic Global Vegetation Models) from the second phase of the Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project. Results link vegetation dynamics to biogeochemical cycling for the conterminous United States. Two climate change scenarios were used: a moderately warm scenario from the Hadley Climate Centre and a warmer scenario from the Canadian Climate Center. Both include sulfate aerosols and assume a gradual CO2 increase. Both DGVMs simulate a reduction of southwestern desert areas, a westward expansion of eastern deciduous forests, and the expansion of forests in the western part of the Pacific Northwest and in north-central California. Both DGVMs predict an increase in total biomass burnt in the next century, with a more pronounced increase under the Canadian scenario. Under the Hadley scenario, both DGVMs simulate increases in total carbon stocks. Under the Canadian scenario, both DGVMs simulate a decrease in live vegetation carbon. We identify similarities in model behavior due to the climate forcing and explain differences by the different structure of the models and their different sensitivity to CO2. We compare model output with data to enhance our confidence in their ability to simulate potential vegetation distribution and ecosystem processes. We compare changes in the area of drought-induced decreases in vegetation density with a spatial index derived from the Palmer Drought Severity Index to illustrate the ability of the vegetation to cope with water limitations in the future and the role of the CO2 fertilization effect.

In a world increasingly modified by human activities, the conservation of biodiversity is essential as insurance to maintain resilient ecosystems and ensure a sustainable flow of ecosystem goods and services to society. However, existing reserves and national parks are unlikely to incorporate the long-term and large-scale dynamics of ecosystems. Hence, conservation strategies have to actively incorporate the large areas of land that are managed for human use. For ecosystems to reorganize after large-scale natural and human-induced disturbances, spatial resilience in the form of ecological memory is a prerequisite. The ecological memory is composed of the species, interactions and structures that make ecosystem reorganization possible, and its components may be found within disturbed patches as well in the surrounding land-scape. Present static reserves should be complemented with dynamic reserves, such as ecological fallows and dynamic successional reserves, that are part of ecosystem management mimicking natural disturbance regimes at the landscape level.

Canids form the most widely distributed family within the order Carnivora, with members present in a multitude of different environments from cold arctic to hot, dry deserts. We reviewed the literature and compared 24 data sets available on the basal metabolic rate (BMR) of 12 canid species, accounting for body mass and climate, to examine inter- and intraspecific variations in mass-adjusted BMR between 2 extreme climates (arctic and hot desert). Using both conventional and phylogenetically independent analysis of covariance, we found that canids from the arctic climate zone had significantly higher mass-adjusted BMR than species from hot deserts. Canids not associated with either arctic or desert climates had an intermediate and more variable mass-adjusted BMR. The climate effect also was significant at the intraspecific level in species for which we had data in 2 different climates. Arctic and desert climates represent contrasting combinations of ambient temperatures and water accessibility that require opposite physiological adaptations in terms of metabolism. The fact that BMR varies within species when individuals are subjected to different climate regimes further suggests that climate is an important determinant of BMR.

Sudden dieback and deterioration of mature aspen stands is commonly observed throughout North America. This dieback process has tremendous ecological and economic importance, yet remains poorly understood. This paper summarizes our understanding of aspen dieback in North America, identifies potential processes that contribute to reduced vigour and dieback of aspen stands, and examines the scales (stand, ecosite, regional) at which these processes operate. Many factors including pathogens, nutrition, or successional changes may be involved in the decline of aspen vigour and thereby contribute to the dieback process. However, insect defoliation, drought, and thaw-freeze events appear to be the most likely factors initiating dieback in mature aspen stands. Further study is clearly needed to elucidate the mechanisms and landscape patterns of dieback. Information needs related to identifying processes and modeling landscape patterns of dieback are indicated.

In 1973, C. S. Holling introduced the word resilience into the ecological literature as a way of helping to understand the non-linear dynamics observed in ecosystems. Ecological resilience was defined as the amount of disturbance that an ecosystem could withstand without changing self-organized processes and structures (defined as alternative stable states). Other authors consider resilience as a return time to a stable state following a perturbation. A new term, adaptive capacity, is introduced to describe the processes that modify ecological resilience. Two definitions recognize the presence of multiple stable states (or stability domains), and hence resilience is the property that mediates transition among these states. Transitions among stable states have been described for many ecosystems, including semi-arid rangelands, lakes, coral reefs, and forests. In these systems, ecological resilience is maintained by keystone structuring processes across a number of scales, sources of renewal and reformation, and functional biodiversity. In practice, maintaining a capacity for renewal in a dynamic environment provides an ecological buffer that protects the system from the failure of management actions that are taken based upon incomplete understanding, and it allows managers to affordably learn and change.

Changes in the global environment are modifying the geographical locations of habitats suitable for plant growth. The capacity of plants to migrate to sites of suitable environmental quality will strongly influence future distributions of plant diversity. However, it is not well understood how rates of plant migration are influenced by the habitat loss and habitat fragmentation that characterise contemporary landscapes. In this study we develop a model that can predict migration rates in both intact landscapes (potential migration rate) and in fragmented landscapes (realised migration rates). Migration rates in fragmented landscapes might be slower for many reasons. In this study we focus on two, non-exclusive reasons. First, the processes that move seeds may break down in fragmented landscapes causing seeds to be dispersed shorter distances. Second, in fragmented landscapes some proportion of seeds will not be deposited in habitats suitable for recruitment. We describe the breakdown of dispersal processes as a competing risk between the factors influencing dispersal in intact landscapes and the factors that may disrupt dispersal processes in fragmented landscapes. We show how the parameters that influence dispersal in fragmented landscapes can be estimated, and how these estimates can be used to forecast migration rates using an integrodifference equation (IDE). The forecasts of the IDE described the effects of reduced dispersal distances adequately. However, the IDE produced biased estimates of the effects of a reduction in plant habitat on migration rates. Model analyses showed that, although we can expect realized migration rates to be lower than potential migration rates, we can also expect the sensitivity of migration rate to habitat loss to vary. In addition, simulations showed that the qualitative nature of the responses of migration rate to habitat loss were variable - some model species responded non-linearly to habitat loss, others responded linearly. While our method provides guidelines for empirical data collection and model parameterisation, we recognise that obtaining these data will be challenging.

The management of landscapes for biological conservation and ecologically sustainable natural resource use are crucial global issues. Research for over two decades has resulted in a large literature, yet there is little consensus on the applicability or even the existence of general principles or broad considerations that could guide landscape conservation. We assess six major themes in the ecology and conservation of landscapes. We identify 13 important issues that need to be considered in developing approaches to landscape conservation. They include recognizing the importance of landscape mosaics (including the integration of terrestrial and aquatic areas), recognizing interactions between vegetation cover and vegetation configuration, using an appropriate landscape conceptual model, maintaining the capacity to recover from disturbance and managing landscapes in an adaptive framework. These considerations are influenced by landscape context, species assemblages and management goals and do not translate directly into on-the-ground management guidelines but they should be recognized by researchers and resource managers when developing guidelines for specific cases. Two crucial overarching issues are: (i) a clearly articulated vision for landscape conservation and (ii) quantifiable objectives that offer unambiguous signposts for measuring progress.

There is a large uncertainty in the relative roles of human land use, climate change and carbon dioxide fertilization in changing desert dust source strength over the past 100 years, and the overall sign of human impacts on dust is not known. We used visibility data from meteorological stations in dusty regions to assess the anthropogenic impact on long term trends in desert dust emissions. We did this by looking at time series of visibility derived variables and their correlations with precipitation, drought, winds, land use and grazing. Visibility data are available at thousands of stations globally from 1900 to the present, but we focused on 357 stations with more than 30 years of data in regions where mineral aerosols play a dominant role in visibility observations. We evaluated the 1974 to 2003 time period because most of these stations have reliable records only during this time. We first evaluated the visibility data against AERONET aerosol optical depth data, and found that only in dusty regions are the two moderately correlated. Correlation coefficients between visibility-derived variables and AERONET optical depths indicate a moderate correlation (0.47), consistent with capturing about 20% of the variability in optical depths. Two visibility-derived variables appear to compare the best with AERONET observations: the fraction of observations with visibility less than 5 km (VIS5) and the surface extinction (EXT). Regional trends show that in many dusty places, VIS5 and EXT are statistically significantly correlated with the Palmer drought severity index (based on precipitation and temperature) or surface wind speeds, consistent with dust temporal variability being largely driven by meteorology. This is especially true for North African and Chinese dust sources, but less true in the Middle East, Australia or South America, where there are not consistent patterns in the correlations. Climate indices such as El Nino or the North Atlantic Oscillation are not correlated with visibility-derived variables in this analysis. There are few stations where visibility measures are correlated with cultivation or grazing estimates on a temporal basis, although this may be a function of the very coarse temporal resolution of the land use datasets. On the other hand, spatial analysis of the visibility data suggests that natural topographic lows are not correlated with VIS5 or EXT, but land use is correlated at a moderate level. This analysis is consistent with land use being important in some regions, but meteorology driving interannual variability during 1974-2003.

The tropical dry forests constitute a mosaic composed of several phenological functional types adapted to seasonal drought in different ways. Various functional types differ with respect to phenological timing and triggering factors, water relations, extent of deciduousness (~ leaflessness), etc. Duration of deciduousness in tropical trees (reflecting integrated effect of seasonal drought, tree characteristics and soil moisture conditions) is related to leafing patterns and resource use rates. Vegetative and flowering phenology of trees in dry tropics is primarily affected by the periodicity of rainfall and soil water availability. Occurrence of leaf-flushing as well as flowering during summer in majority of Indian tropical trees, when drought is severe, seems to be a unique adaptation to survive under strongly seasonal climate having a short growth promoting wet period and a long growth constraining dry period. The key phonological themes that need research focus in the dry tropics are: duration of deciduousness, timing of vegetative bud break, leaf strategy, water relations, seasonal flowering types and asynchrony. Analysis of functional types based on the duration of deciduousness and timing of bud break may enable better assessment of future climate change impact. There is a need for long-term quantitative documentation of tree phenological patterns in India through a phenological station network in diverse climatic/ vegetational zones.

Oak woodlands and savannas are key defining landscapes in the California Floristic Province, making up almost a quarter of the region's forests and woodlands. Two endemic Californian oak species, valley oak (Quercus lobata Neé) and blue oak (Quercus douglasii Hook. & Arn.), are widely considered at risk of decline from persistent recruitment failures in the last century. However, decades of research have produced no definitive conclusion about the existence, extent, or causes of this 'regeneration problem'. Underlying causes of perceived recruitment failure are unclear and could include drivers at distribution-wide to local scales including climate and atmospheric changes, habitat fragmentation, altered herbivore populations, changing fire regimes, exotic plant and animal invasions, livestock grazing, and soil conditions altered by past land uses. We performed meta-analyses of existing stand-scale data from the published and grey literatures on seedling and sapling recruitment in blue and valley oaks throughout each of their distributions. We sought to evaluate whether distribution-wide regeneration 'problems' exist for either species and to assess what factors correlate with distribution-wide recruitment patterns. Nearly 80% of sites surveyed for blue oaks but fewer than 50% of sites surveyed for valley oaks contained some evidence of seedling or sapling recruitment. A majority of sites surveyed for both species appear to have insufficient recruitment to replace adult populations, though further demographic work would be required to quantify minimum replacement recruitment rates. Reserve sites were seven times more likely than non-reserve sites to contain valley oak populations with evidence of recruitment. Blue oak recruitment patterns were weakly related to climate and geographical factors and strongly variable at subregional scales. We suggest several lines of additional research that could fill gaps in the existing literature and clarify the patterns emerging from this analysis.