ࡱ> ikh%` Rbjbj"x"x .,@@Rrrrrrrr$Pl kkkkkkk$Nmhokr krr l^rrkksrr *qdRk l0PlJpRJpJprX E |k kk PlDrrrrrr  Development of an adaptive, decision support model for evaluating the effects of water use in the lower Flint River Basin, Georgia, USA James T. Peterson, U.S. Geological Survey River regulation and water use are among the foremost problems faced by natural resource managers. Identifying and quantifying the effects of river regulation and water development on aquatic communities is crucial for evaluating potential conservation strategies. To evaluate the influence of water use on stream fishes, I developed empirical models relating changes in flow regime to changes in fish distribution in the Lower Flint River Basin, GA. I then used these models to examine changes in species-specific distribution patterns under 4 simulated water use scenarios. The simulations predicted a decrease in the distribution of 15 fish species relative to the no water use scenario, regardless of the biological dynamics simulated. The estimates of the effects of water use, however, were influenced by the assumptions about how other factors affect fish population dynamics. While it is clear that seasonal streamflows affect fish populations, remaining uncertainty about biological system dynamics make it difficult to predict with certainty the biological effects of water management decisions. I believe that an adaptive approach could be incorporated into decision making to resolve the uncertainties about the dynamics of fish populations and improve water resource decision-making. Todays Date: 1 February 2008 Project Title: The development and evaluation of tools for evaluating flow requirements in streams in the Lower Flint River Basin, Georgia Project Date: August 2001 December 2005 Project Collaborators: James T. Peterson (USGS Georgia Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, University of Georgia, Athens); C. Rhett Jackson (Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia, Athens); Mike Harris (GA Department of Natural Resources) Project Location: Lower Flint River Basin, Georgia Study Area: 15,100 km2 Purpose: Evaluate the influence of water use and develop streamflow standards in the Lower Flint River Basin. Objectives: Develop dynamic, spatially-explicit methods for evaluating the effects of water use on stream fish populations in the Lower Flint River Basin. Methods: We developed empirical models relating streamflow to: (1) water temperature and stream dissolved oxygen concentrations; (2) the amount and types of stream habitats available for fishes; (3) changes in fish community structure; and (4) meta-demographic parameters of 15 fish species. We then used these models to simulate changes in water quality, habitat availability, fish community structure, and species-specific distribution patterns under four simulated water use levels using simulated flow data provided by the Georgia Department of Natural Resources, Environmental Protection Division (EPD) hydrologists. Data: HSPF surface water simulations under four water use scenarios created by Georgia EPD, daily discharge data from USGS gages, USGS 1:100k hydrography, 30-m DEM from the National Elevation Dataset, 2001 UGA NARSL landcover data, seasonal fish and habitat samples collected 2001-2004. Results: Model evaluation indicated that most of our models were relatively accurate with estimated error rates averaging less than +/- 20%. Spatially-explicit simulations of fish distribution patterns under water use scenarios predicted losses in species distribution for all 15 species, regardless of the biological mechanisms simulated. We predicted that species distributions were reduced, on average, by 28% and were negatively related to increased water. The simulation results also indicated that the estimates of the effects of water use on species-specific distribution were influenced by the assumptions about the biological system dynamics. This demonstrates that decisions on how best to conserve water for ecological needs would be further complicated by the uncertainty about biological system dynamics. For example, assumptions about biological mechanisms would likely determine where (e.g., which streams) water would best be conserved. Policy Application: No listed fish species are present in the Lower Flint River Basin. However, results of this study were the motivation for the current development of a habitat conservation plan for three Federally-listed species of mussels in the basin. Long-Term Monitoring: None to date Funding ($) 356,000 Funding Source: Georgia Department of Natural Resources Documents: Peterson, J. T., C. R. Jackson, G. Li, J. McCargo, and R. McPherson. 2006. The development and evaluation of tools for evaluating flow requirements in streams in the Lower Flint River Basin, Georgia. Report to the Georgia Department of Natural Resources, Social Circle, Georgia. Peterson, J. C. Moore, S. Wenger, K. Kennedy, E. Irwin, and M. Freeman. 2007. Adaptive management applied to aquatic natural resources. Chapter 6.4 in Proceedings of the 2007 Georgia Water Resources Conference, March 27-29, Athens. McCargo, J. 2004. Influence of Drought on Seasonal Fish Assemblages and Habitat in the Lower Flint River Basin, Georgia. MS Thesis. University of Georgia, Athens. McPherson, R. 2005 An Assessment of Fish Community Structure and Seasonal Habitat Use Of Headwater Confined Channels and Headwater Wetlands in the Lower Flint River Basin, Southwest Georgia. MS Thesis. University of Georgia, Athens.  o|}Ž{tphV hZfAhZfA hV5hY h5hP h:mhaJ haJ5 h5hhD5 hhhhP 5hDhhh5 h(5 h(PJh( h,6h,h,6 h,5>* h`5>*h(h(5>* h@85>*+ pktLMp 0^`0gdt$ |^`|gdt$dh^`gd($d,`a$gd($a$gdt$Rjkuvw~ )1stxyz;=ZžҾҾҾҺ⮪┐hZh)haJ haJhaJ haJhP ht$h2}h5O h5Oh5O h5hP hNU'hlz h5haJhaJ5hlz hNU'hP haJ5hhP 5 h5 hDhVhVH* hVhV5Z 4Cb),./Y^KLS^_`bk%+FLMabco{誉~hP hY hY hY hZhj&hH'hI- heshes heshZ haJ5hh8-5hh 5 haJhP h5OB*phht$B*phh2}ht$ h5O5 he5hhP 5haJhP >*h5Ohes1hiQRhH'htA5htA h#h#hH' hZ5hhP 5hP hhh5 h5 iR^gdt$^gd# 0^`0gdt$,1h/ =!"#$% @@@ NormalCJ_HaJmH sH tH DA@D Default Paragraph FontRiR  Table Normal4 l4a (k(No List6U@6 ? 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