ࡱ> %` )bjbj"x"x .H@@} ...8fL,(~$hS(((***(d~*(~*** PgMq.)d*jτ0*l)**+X*g!;$il*X(((( ** The Massachusetts Sustainable-Yield Estimator: A decision-support tool to estimate continuous daily streamflow at ungaged locations in Massachusetts, USA Stacey Archfield, U.S. Geological Survey Abstract Federal, State and local water supply, regulatory, and planning agencies require easy-to-use, technically-defensible, decision-support (DS) applications that can evaluate impacts of proposed water withdrawals, determine baseline streamflow conditions needed for sustainability of aquatic habitat, and estimate inflows to drinking-water-supply reservoirs for safe yield analyses at ungaged locations. An interactive, point-and-click DS application was developed in combination with a geographic-information system and probabilistic methods to address these needs. The DS application estimates unimpacted daily streamflow at any user-selected location gaged or ungaged -- on a perennial stream in Massachusetts. A new method is proposed to estimate a daily flow-duration curve at an ungaged site by exploiting the structure of the ordered flows. This method offers substantial improvement -- particularly for low flows -- over traditional regression-based approaches that relate flows at selected quantiles to measurable basin characteristics. A time series of daily flows is then created by transferring the timing of the daily flows at an index gage to the ungaged site at equivalent exceedance probabilities. Estimated daily streamflows show remarkably good agreement with observed daily flows and are comparable to the agreement obtained from a calibrated rainfall-runoff model. Confidence intervals around daily streamflow estimates are also computed by the DS system and these intervals are based on the probabilistic structure of jack-knifed errors at 66 streamflow-gaging stations throughout southern New England. Person Completing this Form: Stacey Archfield, U.S. Geological Survey Massachusetts-Rhode Island Water Science Center Todays Date: 03/20/2008 Project Date and Duration: 10/01/05 to 09/30/2008 Project Collaborators: Richard M. Vogel, Professor Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Tufts University 113 Anderson Hall 200 College Avenue Medford, MA 02155 phone: 617-627-4260 email: richard.vogel@tufts.edu Peter A. Steeves, Physical Scientist Massachusetts-Rhode Island Water Science Center U.S. Geological Survey 10 Bearfoot Road Northborough, MA 01532 phone: (508) 490-5054 email: psteeves@usgs.gov Sara L. Brandt, Physical Scientist Massachusetts-Rhode Island Water Science Center U.S. Geological Survey 10 Bearfoot Road Northborough, MA 01532 phone: (508) 490-5105 email: sbrandt@usgs.gov Peter W. Weiskel, Associate Director Massachusetts-Rhode Island Water Science Center U.S. Geological Survey 10 Bearfoot Road Northborough, MA 01532 phone: (508) 490-5026 email: pweiskel@usgs.gov Stephen P. Garabedian, Director Silvio O. Conte Anadromous Fish Research Laboratory U.S. Geological Survey / Leetown Science Center Conte Anadromous Fish Laboratory One Migratory Way P.O. Box 796 Turners Falls, MA 01376 phone: (413) 863-3800 email: sgarabed@usgs.gov Project Location: Massachusetts, USA Study Area (km2): 27,337 Aim/Purpose: Users of the SYE application will be able to compare estimated flows to a user-specified instream-flow target and compute a sustainable yield (the amount of water available for withdrawal from the basin while maintaining flow requirements for aquatic habitat). The calculation of sustainable yield will be based not only on user-specified instream-flow targets (time-varying or constant flow targets) but also for a user-specified time period (drought year, wet year, or average year). Objectives: Develop an interactive, point-and-click tool, built upon a geographic-information system, to estimate the unimpacted streamflow at any location on a perennial stream in Massachusetts. Specific Activities and Methods: To estimate unimpacted flows, a flow-duration curve at the ungaged basin will be estimated by a set of equations that relate basin characteristics to properties of flow-duration curves. A new method is proposed to estimate a daily flow-duration curve at an ungaged site by exploiting the structure of the ordered flows. This method offers substantial improvement -- particularly for low flows -- over traditional regression-based approaches that relate flows at selected quantiles to measurable basin characteristics. A time series of daily streamflow is then created from the estimated flow-duration curve by use of the QPPQ-transform method (Fennessey, 1994), which transfers the timing of the daily flows at an index gage to the ungaged site by equating the exceedance probabilities at the index gage and ungaged site. Estimated daily streamflows show good agreement with observed daily flows and are comparable to the agreement obtained from a calibrated rainfall-runoff model. Ground- and surface-water withdrawals, ground-water discharges, and return flows will be used to estimate the time series of impacted streamflow. The impacts of ground-water withdrawals and discharges on streamflow will be estimated by an analytical solution that uses properties of the aquifer, time-varying withdrawal or discharge rates, and the distance between the stream and the withdrawal or discharge location to estimate streamflow depletion or augmentation, respectively (Barlow, 2000). Time-varying streamflow depletion will then be subtracted from the estimated unimpacted flows. Surface-water withdrawals and return flows will be directly subtracted from or added to the estimated unimpacted flows, respectively. Users of the application will be able to add new withdrawals, discharges and/or return flows as well as edit existing withdrawal, discharge and/or return flow data. Data Used: Basin characteristics and daily streamflow at 66 minimally-altered streamflow-gaging stations in southern New England. Water-use data for all ground- and surface-water withdrawals, ground-water discharges, and surface-water return flows in Massachusetts from 2000 to 2004. Data Generated: Time series of unimpacted, continuous daily streamflow from October 1, 1960 through September 30, 2004 at any ungaged location in Massachusetts and a time series of impacted, continuous streamflow resulting from water use in any ungaged basin from 2000 through 2004. Results/Outcomes: Project will develop a method to estimate unimpacted and impacted continuous daily streamflow at ungaged locations in Massachusetts. Products: The Sustainable-Yield-Estimator (SYE) decision-support tool and users guide; U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report, which will include documentation of the methodologies; various publications in refereed journals. Management and Policy Application: The Sustainable-Yield-Estimator tool computes an unimpacted continuous, daily hydrograph for a specific historical time period (for example, a daily time series of flows from 1960 to 2004). Based on user-defined constraints such as existing water-use in the basin and instream-flow regimes necessary for sustainability of aquatic habitat, the tool then computes the sustainable yield of the basin, defined as the difference between the estimated hydrograph and the user-specified instream-flow regime. Users can quickly and easily compute the sustainable yield of the basin for a variety of water-management scenarios and instream-flow regimes. For fixed ungaged basins, these results can be applied to water-budget analyses at ungaged sites. Monitoring: None. Funding: $350,000 Funding Source: U.S. Geological Survey Cooperative Water Program and the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection Documents: Publications and decision-support tool are currently in review. References: Barlow, P.M., 2000, Documentation of computer program STRMDEPL-A program to calculate streamflow depletion by wells using analytical solutions, In Zarriello, P.J. and Ries, K.G. III, 2000, A precipitation-runoff model for the analysis of the effects of withdrawals on streamflow, Ipswich River Basin, Mass., U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigation Report 00-4029, 99 p. Fennessey, N.M., 1994, A hydro-climatological model of daily streamflow for the northeast United States: Medford, MA, Tufts University, Ph.D. dissertation, variously paged.     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